Transcript No Slide Title

Population Change in Texas:
Implications for Human and Socioeconomic
Resources in the 21st Century
by
Steve H. Murdock
Department of Rural Sociology
Texas Agricultural Experiment Station
Texas A&M University System
Major Demographic Trends
Affecting the Future
• Change in Rates and Sources of
Population Growth
• Increase in the Non-Anglo Population
• Aging of the Population
Total Population Change
Total Population and Percent Population Change in
Texas and the United States, 1850-2002
Total Population
Percent Change
Year*
Texas
U.S.
Texas
1850
212,592
23,191,876
---
1860
604,215
31,443,321
184.2
35.6
1870
818,579
39,818,449
35.5
26.6
1880
1,591,749
50,155,783
94.5
26.0
1890
2,235,527
62,947,714
40.4
25.5
1900
3,048,710
75,994,575
36.4
20.7
1910
3,896,542
91,972,266
27.8
21.0
1920
4,663,228
105,710,620
19.7
14.9
1930
5,824,715
122,775,046
24.9
16.1
1940
6,414,824
131,669,275
10.1
7.2
1950
7,711,194
150,697,361
20.2
14.5
1960
9,579,677
179,323,175
24.2
19.0
1970
11,196,730
203,302,031
16.9
13.4
1980
14,229,191
226,545,805
27.1
11.4
1990
16,986,510
248,709,873
19.4
9.8
2000
20,851,820
281,421,906
22.8
13.2
2002
21,779,893
288,368,698
4.5
2.5
*
U.S.
---
All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Value
for 2002 is as estimated by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Ten Fastest Growing States in Numerical Terms
in the United States, 1990-2000
Percent
Population
Change
1990-2000
1990
Population*
2000
Population*
Numerical
Change
1990-2000
California
29,760,021
33,871,648
4,111,627
13.8
Texas
16,986,510
20,851,820
3,865,310
22.8
Florida
12,937,926
15,982,378
3,044,452
23.5
Georgia
6,478,216
8,186,453
1,708,237
26.4
Arizona
3,665,228
5,130,632
1,465,404
40.0
North Carolina
6,628,637
8,049,313
1,420,676
21.4
Washington
4,866,692
5,894,121
1,027,429
21.1
Colorado
3,294,394
4,301,261
1,006,867
30.6
Illinois
11,430,602
12,419,293
988,691
8.6
New York
17,990,455
18,976,457
986,002
5.5
State
*
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the year indicated
Ten Fastest Growing States in Percentage Terms
in the United States, 1990-2000
Numerical
Change
1990-2000
Percent
Population
Change
1990-2000
1990
Population*
2000
Population*
Nevada
1,201,833
1,998,257
796,424
66.3
Arizona
3,665,228
5,130,632
1,465,404
40.0
Colorado
3,294,394
4,301,261
1,006,867
30.6
Utah
1,722,850
2,233,169
510,319
29.6
Idaho
1,006,749
1,293,953
287,204
28.5
Georgia
6,478,216
8,186,453
1,708,237
26.4
Florida
12,937,926
15,982,378
3,044,452
23.5
Texas
16,986,510
20,851,820
3,865,310
22.8
North Carolina
6,628,637
8,049,313
1,420,676
21.4
Washington
4,866,692
5,894,121
1,027,429
21.1
State
*
Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 of the year indicated
Racial/Ethnic Change in Texas
Texas Rank Among States on Selected
Characteristics of Race/Ethnicity Groups
Group
Texas
Value
Texas
Rank
Comparison
Areas
By Size in 2000
Anglo
11,074,716
3
California; 17.0 million
New York; 12.5 million
Black
2,421,653
2
New York; 2.9 million
Hispanic
6,669,666
2
California; 11.0 million
685,785
4
California; 4.2 million
New York; 1.2 million
Hawaii; 733,000
Other
Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics
of Race/Ethnicity Groups
Group
Texas
Value
Texas
Rank
Comparison
Areas
By Numerical Change, 1990-2000
Anglo
783,036
2
Florida; 1.1 million
Black
445,293
3
Florida; 665,000
Georgia; 627,000
2,329,761
2
California; 3.3 million
307,220
3
California; 1.2 million
New York; 493,000
Hispanic
Other
Texas Rank Among States on Selected Characteristics
of Race/Ethnicity Groups
Group
Texas
Value
Texas
Rank
Comparison
Areas
By Percent of Total Population in 2000
Anglo
53.1
47
Ahead of Hawaii; 30.1
Ahead of New Mexico; 45.7
Ahead of California; 48.4
Black
11.6
18
Highest is Mississippi; 36.4
Lowest is Montana; 0.4
Hispanic
32.0
3
3.3
22
Other
New Mexico; 42.1
California; 32.4
Highest is Hawaii; 60.5
Lowest is West Virginia; 0.9
Numerical Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity
in Texas for 1980-1990 and 1990-2000
2,500,000
2,329,761
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
1,354,081
941,383
783,036
445,293
500,000
307,220
283,818
178,037
0
Anglo
Black
1980-1990
Hispanic
1990-2000
Other
Percent Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity for
1980-1990 and 1990-2000 in Texas
100
Percent Change
88.78
81.15
80
60
53.68
45.35
40
22.53
16.77
20
10.07
7.61
0
1980-1990
1990-2000
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Proportion of Net Population Change Attributable
to Each Race/Ethnicity Group in Texas for 19801990 and 1990-2000
70
60.27
60
49.11
50
40
34.14
30
20.26
20
11.52
10.29
10
7.95
6.46
0
1980-1990
1990-2000
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Major Changes in Population Composition
(Characteristics)
• Age
Median Age in the United States and Texas,
1900-2000
40
Median Age
35.3
32.9
30.1
29
30
25.3
24.1
22.9
26.8
26.5
30
29.5
27.9
27
28.1
32.3
30.8
28
26.4
23.7
22
20.2
20
18.7
10
0
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
United States
1960
Texas
1970
1980
1990
2000
Percent
Percent of Texas Population by Age Group
and Ethnicity, 2000
80.0
72.6
66.4
67.1
63.5
60.2
60.0
57.2
53.0
47.8
44.0
40.0
39.5
45.0
45.0
41.641.3
38.0
38.4
43.1
40.5
44.4
38.6
35.3
30.5
26.7
20.0
24.2
22.4
20.6
20.3
16.7
0.0
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
s
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
ar
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
e
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
y
5
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
+
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
<
to
65
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
to
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Anglo
Hispanic
Percent of Texas Population by Age Group
and Ethnicity, 2040*
80.0
70.0
Percent
69.9
67.8
66.5
65.5
66.0
66.8
66.4
64.3
62.6
60.6
60.0
56.7
55.2
52.3
50.0
39.8
37.1
40.0
30.0
20.0
25.3
17.7
19.3
19.9
20.3
19.8
19.3
19.4
20.5
20.6
26.5
27.2
21.9
10.0
0.0
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
rs
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
a
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
ye
5
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
9
4
+
1
1
2
2
3
3
4
4
5
5
6
<
to
65
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
o
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
t
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Anglo
* Proj ections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Hispanic
POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS
AND SOCIOECONOMIC
CONDITIONS
Median Household Income in 1999 in Texas by
Age of Householder
Thousands
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$0
<25
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
Age of Householder
65-74
75+
Median Household Income In 1999 in Texas
by Race/Ethnicity of Householder
$60,000
$50,049
$47,162
$50,000
$40,000
$29,305
$29,873
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Asian
States Ranked by Median Household
Income in 1999
New Jersey (1)
$55,146
Connecticut (2)
$53,935
Maryland (3)
$52,868
Alaska (4)
$51,571
Massachusetts (5)
$50,502
Hawaii (6)
$49,820
New Hampshire (7)
$49,467
California (8)
$47,493
Delaware (9)
$47,381
Colorado (10)
$47,203
Texas (30)
$39,927
United States
$41,994
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
States Ranked by Per Capita
Income in 1999
Connecticut (1)
$28,766
District of Columbia (2)
$28,659
New Jersey (3)
$27,006
Massachusetts (4)
$25,952
Maryland (5)
$25,614
Colorado (6)
$24,049
Virgina (7)
$23,975
New Hampshire (8)
$23,844
New York (9)
$23,389
Delaware (10)
$23,305
Texas (33)
$19,617
United States
$21,587
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Educational Attainment in 2000
in Texas for Persons 25+ Years
of Age By Race/Ethnicity
Percent
< High School
High School
Hispanic
Black
Anglo
Asian
Some College
College or More
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
States Ranked by Percent High School Graduates +
in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000
Alaska(1)
88.3
Minnesota (3)
87.9
Wyoming (3)
87.9
Utah (4)
87.7
New Hampshire (5)
87.4
Montana (6)
87.2
Washington (7)
87.1
Colorado (8)
86.9
Nebraska (9)
86.6
Vermont (10)
86.4
Texas (45)
75.7
United States
80.4
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Percent
80.0
100.0
States Ranked by Percent College Graduates +
in the Population 25 Years of Age or Older, 2000
District of Columbia (1)
39.1
Massachusetts (2)
33.2
Colorado (3)
32.7
Connecticut (5)
31.4
Maryland (5)
31.4
New Jersey (6)
29.8
Virginia (7)
29.5
Vermont (8)
29.4
New Hampshire (9)
28.7
Washington (10)
27.7
Texas (27)
23.2
United States
24.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
Percent
40.0
50.0
PROJECTIONS
Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the
Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040
Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
2000
11,074,716
2,421,653
6,669,666
685,785
20,851,820
776,088
828,786
856,437
856,047
22,659,748
24,097,979
25,105,442
25,561,581
Assuming Zero Migration
2010
2020
2030
2040
11,292,858
11,320,857
11,086,475
10,599,190
2,604,162
2,727,365
2,756,470
2,697,888
7,986,640
9,220,971
10,406,060
11,408,456
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to
One-Half of 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
11,494,673
11,735,043
11,701,065
11,382,992
2,730,659
3,004,173
3,191,230
3,283,413
8,999,827
11,742,820
14,900,692
18,391,333
953,348
1,256,342
1,596,578
1,954,592
24,178,507
27,738,378
31,389,565
35,012,330
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
11,700,471
12,165,004
12,350,427
12,225,486
2,863,397
3,309,068
3,694,283
3,995,349
10,164,378
15,056,028
21,533,219
29,926,210
1,168,772
1,897,182
2,960,361
4,435,916
25,897,018
32,427,282
40,538,290
50,582,961
Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population in
Texas by Racial/Ethnic Status Under Alternative Assumptions of
Migration Scenarios
Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
13.2
6.8
3.3
0.0
24.8
8.7
6.3
4.2
1.8
22.6
Assuming Zero Migration
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
2.0
0.2
-2.1
-4.4
-4.3
7.5
4.7
1.1
-2.1
11.4
19.7
15.5
12.9
9.6
71.0
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to
One-Half of 1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
3.8
2.1
-0.3
-2.7
2.8
12.8
10.0
6.2
2.9
35.6
34.9
30.5
26.9
23.4
175.7
39.0
31.8
27.1
22.4
185.0
16.0
14.7
13.2
11.5
67.9
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
5.7
4.0
1.5
-1.0
10.4
18.2
15.6
11.6
8.1
65.0
52.4
48.1
43.0
39.0
348.7
70.4
62.3
56.0
49.8
546.8
24.2
25.2
25.0
24.8
142.6
Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and
Projections of the Percent of the Population in Texas by
Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040
Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
2000
53.1
11.6
32.0
3.3
35.2
38.3
41.4
44.6
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
Assuming Zero Migration
2010
2020
2030
2040
49.9
47.0
44.2
41.5
11.5
11.3
11.0
10.6
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to
One-Half of 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
47.6
42.4
37.2
32.5
11.3
10.8
10.2
9.4
37.2
42.3
47.5
52.5
3.9
4.5
5.1
5.6
Assuming Rates of Net Migration
Equal to 1990-2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
45.2
37.5
30.5
24.2
11.1
10.2
9.1
7.9
39.2
46.4
53.1
59.1
4.5
5.9
7.3
8.8
Projected Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity
in Texas, 2000-2040*
Percent
70.0
59.1
60.0
53.1
53.1
50.0
46.4
45.2
39.2
40.0
37.5
32.0
30.5
30.0
24.2
20.0
11.6
11.1
10.0
10.2
9.1
5.9
4.5
3.3
7.3
7.9
8.8
0.0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
* Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2010-
Percent of the Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity
and Age Groups in Texas from 2000-2040 Under Alternative
Migration Scenarios
Age
Group
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
26.1
11.2
37.7
20.1
4.9
28.2
10.6
31.1
20.2
9.9
All Scenarios
2000
<18
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
23.0
8.8
30.1
24.4
13.7
31.7
11.2
32.1
17.7
7.3
35.8
13.2
31.8
14.0
5.2
Assuming Zero Migration
2020
<18
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
19.9
8.1
24.9
27.6
19.5
24.1
10.2
29.8
25.3
10.6
31.4
11.1
27.2
21.8
8.5
20.7
9.1
24.4
30.2
15.6
24.8
9.6
26.3
25.1
14.2
17.4
7.7
24.0
25.2
25.7
19.8
8.9
27.3
27.0
17.0
27.4
10.1
26.7
20.8
15.0
17.0
6.7
23.8
22.9
29.6
22.1
8.8
25.6
23.3
20.2
2040
<18
18-24
25-44
45-64
65+
(Continued)
Projected Percent of Net Change Attributable to Each
Race/Ethnicity Group in Texas for 2000-2040*
Black
5.3%
Hispanic
78.2%
Anglo
3.9%
Other
12.6%
* Using U.S. Census count for 2000 and Texas State Data Center 1.0 population projection scenario for 2040.
The Texas Challenge in the Twenty-First
Century: Implications of
Population Change for the
Future of Texas
The Center for
Demographic and
Socioeconomic
Research and Education
by
Steve H. Murdock
The Center for Demographic and
Socioeconomic Research and Education
Department of Rural Sociology
Texas A&M University System
Ethnic Diversity of the Population, Householders,
and Labor Force in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
53.1%
58.4%
61.4%
3.0%
3.3%
11.6%
11.4%
32.0%
2000 Population
10.7%
24.2%
2000 Householders
7.9%
9.0%
24.2%
27.5%
2000 Civilian Labor Force
7.9%
29.0%
8.8%
59.1%
3.4%
25.2%
8.2%
9.2%
58.7%
52.8%
2040 Civilian Labor Force
2040 Householders
2040 Population
Anglo
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Black
Hispanic
Other
Ethnic Diversity of the Population Enrolled in Elementary
and Secondary Schools and
Colleges in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
43.2%
58.0%
14.4%
2.9%
5.7%
10.7%
39.5%
2000 Public Elementary
and Secondary
25.6%
2000 Public Colleges
and Universities
8.3%
8.1%
19.9%
28.7%
5.5%
12.3%
66.3%
50.9%
2040 Public Colleges
and Universities
2040 Public Elementary
and Secondary
Anglo
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Black
Hispanic
Other
Ethnic Diversity of Household Income and Consumer
Expenditures in Texas, 2000 and 2040*
66.4%
71.2%
3.0%
3.3%
17.3%
8.7%
8.2%
2000 Aggregate
Household Income
21.9%
2000 Consumer
Expenditures
38.2%
31.9%
7.1%
7.4%
9.3%
11.6%
51.7%
42.8%
2040 Consumer
Expenditures
2040 Aggregate
Household Income
Anglo
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Black
Hispanic
Other
State Tax Revenues in Texas Proportioned by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and
Projections to 2040* Assuming 2000 Decile Tax Rates
3.3%
17.3%
8.2%
71.2%
2000
Tax Revenues
11.6%
42.8%
38.2%
7.4%
2040* Proje cte d
Tax Re v e nue s
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Other
Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational
Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Percent
35
30.1
29
28.7
28.7
30
23.9
25
18.8
18.2
20
12.9
15
10
5.3
4.4
5
0
No High
School Diploma
High School
Graduate
Some
College
2000
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Prof.
Degree
Average Household Income
in Texas, 2000-2040*
(in 2000 Dollars)
$60,000
$54,441
$52,639
$50,903
$49,326
$50,000
$47,883
$40,000
$30,000
2000
2010
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2020
2030
2040
Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by
Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040
Percent in Poverty
35.0
30.0
26.7
30.0
25.0
18.9
20.0
15.0
18.9
17.0
15.4
16.6
15.0
14.4
11.8
11.4
7.5
10.0
5.0
0.0
Family
Households
Married
Couple
Male
Householder
2000
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Female
Householder
2040
Nonfamily
Households
Total
Households
EDUCATION
Percent of Population 25 Years of Age or Older in
Texas Who Are High School Graduates and Higher or
College Graduates and Higher by Race/Ethnicity,
and Percent Change, 1990-2000
Race/
Ethnicity
Percent
High School
Graduates
and Higher
Percent
College
Graduates
and Higher
1990
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Total
81.5
66.2
44.6
79.1
72.1
25.2
12.0
7.3
41.3
20.3
2000
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Total
87.2
75.8
49.3
80.7
75.7
30.0
15.3
8.9
47.8
23.2
Percent Change in Percent
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Asian
Total
7.0
14.5
10.5
2.0
5.0
19.0
27.5
21.9
15.7
14.3
Public Community College and University
Enrollment Rates (Per 100 Persons Ages 18 to 35)
in Texas by Race/Ethnicity, 1990 and 2000
Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
Community College
1990
2000
6.3
6.5
4.1
5.2
4.4
4.8
5.6
6.8
5.5
5.7
10.0
10.3
6.0
5.7
Public University
1990
2000
7.4
7.5
4.0
4.7
3.5
3.3
Enrollment in Public Community Colleges and
Public Universities in Texas, 2000-2040*
1,000
Thousands
849

800
710

589
600

510
421
400

371



445
677

581

495

200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Years
Public Community Colleges 
Public Universities

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040
Percent Change in Projected Public
Elementary and Secondary, Public Community
College and Public University Enrollment in Texas
Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 19902000 (1.0 Scenario)
Time
Period
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
Public Elementary and Secondary
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
-5.5
-1.5
-5.7
-8.0
-19.2
0.4
1.2
3.5
-3.0
2.0
28.1
37.5
31.7
27.5
195.7
40.2
35.0
30.2
37.6
239.3
9.9
18.2
16.9
16.1
76.2
50.7
47.0
43.4
37.3
336.1
21.2
15.5
20.5
19.5
101.6
45.8
44.8
40.9
33.2
296.4
20.0
11.1
17.5
16.5
82.5
Public Community Colleges
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
3.8
-3.3
-1.2
-4.4
-5.2
21.5
8.9
6.1
4.7
46.8
48.8
36.7
40.0
34.6
283.4
Public Universities
2000-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2000-2040
6.5
-5.2
-0.6
-4.4
-4.1
24.3
5.4
4.3
4.7
43.1
48.4
36.5
39.5
34.8
281.2
Projected Percent of Public Community College Enrollment
by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*
Percent
70.0
60.0
56.0
54.7
50.0
40.0
29.5
30.0
25.7
20.0
11.1
8.1
10.0
4.7
0.0
2000
2040
Projection Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Other
10.2
Projected Percent of Public University Enrollment
by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections for 2040*
Percent
70.0
61.5
60.0
50.0
44.5
40.0
32.3
30.0
21.3
20.0
15.1
10.3
8.1
6.9
10.0
0.0
2000
2040
Projection Year
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Other
Number and Percent of Net Change in Projected Public
Elementary and Secondary, Public Community College and
Public University Enrollment in Texas Due To Each
Race/Ethnicity Group, Assuming Rates of Net Migration
Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)
Race/
Ethnicity
Number
Percent
Public Elementary and Secondary
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-332,362
11,462
3,097,353
275,111
3,051,564
-10.9
0.4
101.5
9.0
100.0
Public Community Colleges
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-12,071
21,856
351,517
66,487
427,789
-2.8
5.1
82.2
15.5
100.0
Public Universities
Anglo
Black
Hispanic
Other
Total
-9,237
16,506
222,397
76,306
305,972
-3.0
5.4
72.7
24.9
100.0
Average Annual Household Income in the United States
by Educational Attainment* in 2000
Average Income
$112,004
$120,000
$100,000
$84,029
$80,000
$58,133
$60,000
$45,368
$40,000
$28,974
$20,000
$0
Less Than
High School
High School
Graduate
Some College or
Associate Degree
*From March 2001 Current Population Survey
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Professional
Degree
Lifetime Household Income in the United States
by Educational Attainment* in 2000
Lifetime Income
$5,000,000
$4,480,160
$4,500,000
$4,000,000
$3,361,160
$3,500,000
$3,000,000
$2,325,320
$2,500,000
$1,814,720
$2,000,000
$1,500,000
$1,158,960
$1,000,000
$500,000
$0
Less Than
High School
High School
Graduate
Some College or
Associate Degree
*From March 2001 Current Population Survey
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Professional
Degree
Working Lifetime (40 Years) Consumer
Expenditures by Educational Attainment
(in 2000 Dollars)
Working Lifetime Expenditures
$4,000,000
$3,503,600
$2,628,520
$3,000,000
$1,818,440
$2,000,000
$1,533,960
$1,095,640
$1,000,000
$0
Less Than
High School
High School
Graduate
Some College
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Professional
Degree
Working Lifetime (40 Years) Total State and Local Taxes for
Households by Educational Attainment of Householder
(in 2000 Dollars)
State and Local Taxes
$283,160
$300,000
$250,000
$212,440
$200,000
$167,440
$145,160
$150,000
$106,400
$100,000
$50,000
$0
Less Than
High School
High School
Graduate
Some College
Bachelor's
Degree
Graduate/Professional
Degree
Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational
Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040*
Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates
Anglo
< High School
12.7
2.2
25.7
High School
16.6
31.6
33.4
30.0
Some Coll/Assoc
Bachelor's +
47.8
Black
< High School
24.0
4.3
29.9
High School
25.6
30.6
Some Coll/Assoc.
40.5
15.5
Bachelor's +
29.6
Hispanic
50.7
< High School
32.1
22.0
25.8
18.4
24.1
High School
Some Coll/Assoc
8.9
Bachelor's +
18.0
Other
21.0
< High School
High School
13.4
16.1
7.6
20.6
Some Coll/Assoc
11.0
42.3
Bachelor's +
68.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Percent
2000
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040
60.0
70.0
80.0
Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population
25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
Billions
$1,200
$938
$1,000
$765
$800
$629
$621
$528
$600
$400
$752
$251
$210
$200
$0
2000
Base Values
2040 Assuming
2000 Attainment
Differentials
Aggregate Income
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040 Assuming
1990-2000 Trends
in Differentials
Consumer Expenditures
2040 Assuming
Anglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
Percent Change in Projected Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures
for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas Under Alternative
Educational Attainment Assumptions, 2000 to 2040*
Percent Change
273.9
300.0
250.0
257.3
204.7
199.0
200.0
151.1
147.6
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
Aggregate Income
2000
Attainment
Differentials
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Consumer Expenditures
1990-2000
Trends in
Differentials
Anglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
Prison Population and Prison Costs for Population 25 Years
of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
Prison Population
Costs (Billions)
400,000
$6.0
341,068
350,000
$5.1
$5.0
300,000
$4.0
250,000
227,969
$3.4
200,000
150,000
$3.0
126,515
134,539
$1.9
$2.0
$2.0
100,000
$1.0
50,000
0
$0.0
2000
Base Values
2040 Assuming
2000 Attainment
Differentials
2040 Assuming
1990-2000 Trends
in Differentials
Prison Population
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Prison Costs
2040 Assuming
Anglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
Medicaid Participants and Medicaid Costs for Population 25
Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
Medicaid Participants
Costs (Billions)
1,500,000
$4.0
1,353,742
$3.4
1,250,000
$3.0
950,713
1,000,000
$2.4
750,000
500,000
$2.0
485,228
397,959
$1.2
$1.0
$1.0
250,000
0
$0.0
2000
Base Values
2040 Assuming
2000 Attainment
Differentials
Medicaid Participants
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040 Assuming
1990-2000 Trends
in Differentials
Medicaid Costs
2040 Assuming
Anglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
TANF Participants and TANF Costs for Population 25 Years
of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
TANF Participants
500,000
Costs (Millions)
469,976
$400.0
$345.8
$300.0
400,000
356,127
$262.1
300,000
$200.0
179,697
200,000
122,772
$132.2
$90.3
$100.0
100,000
0
$0.0
2000
Base Values
2040 Assuming
2000 Attainment
Differentials
2040 Assuming
1990-2000 Trends
in Differentials
TANF Participants
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
TANF Costs
2040 Assuming
Anglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
Food Stamp Participants and Food Stamp Costs for Population
25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*
Food Stamp Participants
Costs (Millions)
$400.0
1,256,109
1,250,000
$300.0
959,744
1,000,000
$199.2
750,000
$200.0
$152.2
500,000
323,194
250,000
481,898
$76.4
$100.0
$51.2
0
$0.0
2000
Base Values
2040 Assuming
2000 Attainment
Differentials
Food Stamp Participants
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
2040 Assuming
1990-2000 Trends
in Differentials
Food Stamp Costs
2040 Assuming
Anglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
Percent Change in Projected Prison, TANF, Food Stamp, and Medicaid
Participants and Costs for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas Under
Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions, 2000 to 2040*
Percent Change
350.0
288.7
282.8
300.0
240.2
250.0
200.0
197.0
190.1
169.6
138.9
150.0
100.0
80.2
46.4
50.0
49.1
21.9
6.3
0.0
Prisons
TANF
2000
Attainment
Differentials
*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario
Food Stamps
1990-2000
Trends in
Differentials
Anglo Trends
Apply to all Groups
Medicaid
Steve Murdock
Texas State Data Center
Phone (CS)
Phone (AUS)
Fax
Website
979 - 845 - 5332
512 - 463 - 7659
979 - 845 - 8529
txsdc.tamu.edu