Transcript Post-2013 Exploitation Study - lazio-SIDE

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The Future of Galileo and EGNOS
Carlo des Dorides - DGTREN
Le Piccole e Medie Imprese Italiane e la Politica Spaziale Europea
ICE Seminar – Bruxelles , 6th October 2009
EUROPEAN
COMMISSION
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
The Post-2013 Exploitation Study
Regulation (EC) No 683/2008, Art. 4:
“In 2010, the Commission shall, if appropriate, submit
to the European Parliament and the Council, together
with its mid-term review a proposal concerning the
public funds and commitments required for the
financing programming period starting in 2014, (…), the
revenue-sharing mechanism for the exploitation phase,
and objectives for a pricing policy (…). It shall, in
particular, include a reasoned feasibility study of the
advantages and disadvantages of the use of service
concession contracts or public service contracts with
private sector entities.”
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Objectives of the Post-2013 Exploitation Study
To propose an operational exploitation plan, with a
clear definition of the future commercial service(s)
To estimate the exploitation costs and possible
commercial revenues, and thus to determine the
relating budgetary needs
(up to 2013, 2014-2020, beyond 2020)
To propose an appropriate governance structure
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Post-2013 Exploitation Study
Study logic :
Title
WP1
Market assessment
WP2
Competitive positioning
WP3
Strategic analysis
WP4
Exploitation plan
Study approach :
Extensive assessment of existing studies
Support by external advisors, GSA, ESA
Considerable number of interviews/round tables
Consultation of European GNSS Program Committee
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METHODOLOGY
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Enabled market (products + services) to
be differentiated from “Galileo revenues”
90-95% in terms of revenues
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LESSONS LEARNT
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GNSS-based services are creating significant
added value and high skilled jobs opportunities
The current (2009) market size (revenues from GNSSenabled products and services) estimated to be in
the range of € 140 billions per year:
€ 236 billion
€ 140 billion
2009
2025
Over the period 2004-2008, revenues linked to GNSSbased services have increased at annual growth
rates exceeding 30 % in average.
The expected compound annual growth rate over the
period 2009-2013 is around 24%.
Source: L.E.K. study (2008)
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LESSONS LEARNT

Source: Factiva; Euronext; Google Finance; TomTom (2007)
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Potential markets have been analyzed
Galileo services and selected associated markets
Galileo Services
Open Service
Markets
Description of Market
• Mass market
• Combined GPS/Galileo open service receivers for mass market
• Combined GPS/Galileo open service receivers plus RAIM for civil aviation
• Aviation
Safety-of-Life
Service
• Transport
• Combined GPS/Galileo safety-of-life receivers for civil aviation and other
transport sectors
Public Regulated
Service
• Strategic
• Combined GPS/Galileo strategic receivers for specific users
Commercial
Service
• Authentication
• Galileo commercial service (authentication) receivers for the mass market
• Galileo commercial service (high accuracy) receivers for professional markets
• High accuracy
Search and
Rescue Service
• Professional market
RAIM: Receiver Autonomous Integrity Monitoring
Source: Roland Berger analysis
• Common SAR receivers for professional markets
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Since GNSS services offered are very similar, the key
differentiator between GNSS is their services launch schedule
Services offered by current and future GNSS constellations
Safety-of-Life
Service
Public Regulated
Service
Commercial
Service
(high accuracy)
Commercial
Service
(authentication)
Search and
Rescue Service

(2013,
initial service*)

(2017)

(2013,
initial service*)

(2013,
early service*)

(2013,
early service*)

(2013,
initial service*)

(Now)

(2021)

(Now)

(2018, 3rd civil
frequency L5)
Interoperability
Open Service
Galileo
GPS
GLONASS
COMPASS

(end 2010,
FDMA)

(end 2010)

(2015-2020)

(2015-2020)

[tbd]

(2012)
Unique features
• For each of the services, different GNSS constellations
are expected to have the same level of performance
• Galileo is potentially the only GNSS providing
authentication
• The main differentiator between these constellations is the
time to market for each service regarding the different
windows of opportunity in the GNSS market
• Galileo has a great potential for delivering high-accuracy
services
Source: DG TREN, Roland Berger analysis
*) Initial and early services with limited performances
FDMA: Frequency Division Multiple Access
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There is a high risk for Galileo to miss three
windows of opportunity
Assessment of windows of opportunity in specific markets
Negative impact of
missing window
Windows at high risk
High
1
New features
of GNSS
2
Second
reference
constellation
Mass market
(Road, LBS)
[OS]
Limited in time
Use of
all GNSS
available
Authentication
[CS]
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Transport [SoL]
Aviation [OS]
3
Strategic
[PRS]
High accuracy
[CS]
Low
Potential market size
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High risk for
Galileo to miss
3 windows of
opportunity with
high market
potential
High
Probability of
missing window
Potential size of enabled market
Source: External interviews, DG TREN, Roland Berger analysis
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In order to benefit from these windows of opportunity,
Galileo should launch at least 16-18 satellites by 2013
Actions to be undertaken to benefit from windows of opportunity
Actions required
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2
3
4
Authentication
[CS]
• EC should develop robust authentication capabilities for the Galileo commercial
service ahead of competitive non-GNSS based systems
• Enabling regulation for the use of authentication
Mass market
[OS]
• EC should launch a significant number of Galileo satellites by 2013 in order for
industry to have confidence in Galileo and thus develop combined GPS / Galileo
receivers
Strategic
[PRS]
Aviation
[OS]
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Transport
[SoL]
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External conditions
• EC/Council should ensure that PRS service is accessible for users in the defence
sector and should promote interoperability between GPS / Galileo PRS
Windows at high risk
• EC should launch at least 16-18 satellites by 2013 in order for industry to have
confidence in Galileo and thus develop combined GPS + Galileo receivers
• EC should foster uptake of EGNOS SoL as Galileo SoL will depend on its success
• EC should synchronize Galileo SoL availability with GPS III global integrity
• Galileo SoL should be operational when 1st generation of EGNOS receivers
become obsolete (around 2020-2023 assuming a lifecycle of 10-15 years)
• Provided that RAIM will not
be able to achieve LPV 200
capabilities, or global integrity
improves beyond LPV 200
High accuracy • EC should launch the commercial service for high-accuracy before GPS III L5 FOC
(2018)
[CS]
Source: DG TREN, external interviews, Roland Berger analysis
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Conclusions
EGNOS and Galileo services
• Galileo open service is expected to be used most of the time in
combination with GPS
• The adoption of EGNOS safety-of-life by the aviation community should be
facilitated by ensuring its long-term availability
• The Galileo Commercial Service has a great potential for delivering highaccuracy and authentication services
Windows of opportunity
• In order to benefit from the identified windows of opportunity,
Galileo should launch at least 16-18 satellites by 2013
• Galileo FOC should be achieved no later than 2015
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