Transcript Information Technology Management (ITM)

The SMART Project
Manager
SMART Project Management®
Skills for Software
Francis Hartman PhD FEIC FCAE FICE PEng CEng
Professor, University of Calgary
QeD Inc.
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Agenda
•
•
•
•
•
•
Top 10 lessons not learned…
A few important Questions
Joining a few dots
SMART Applied (selected)
Where are we going next?
Beware of imitations…
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Exercise
Who is to blame for Software
project Failure?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Exercise
List the top ten causes of failure on
your project(s).
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Lessons we won’t learn - 1
1. Inadequate Budget or Schedule,
Optimistic Performance
2. Scarce or wrong Expertise
3. Insufficient design development
prior to commitment
4. Risks not identified and managed,
or understated
5. Resource Shortages
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Lessons we won’t learn - 2
6. Communication breakdown
7. Scope changes out of control
8. Priorities shift over time
9. Wrong contracting strategy
10. Problems acknowledged too late
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
A few important Questions
•
•
•
•
Project Approved? (SM)
Priorities Clear?
(A)
Know what to do? (R)
Next Crisis?
(T)
29 out of 29 so far . . .
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Approved?
Budget
E.A.C. 50
40
55
80
100
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Team A
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2003 - 2006
Team B
Aligned
T
Align the
Architect…
Sys.
Arch.
Users
Sponsor
BOSS
PM
P
Dev’t
team
Subs Sponsor
C
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
… and then the
others…
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Know what’s Next?: 1
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Know what’s Next?: 2
Team A
Team B
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Opp
Opp
Risk Opp
Opp
Risk Risk
Risk
Risk
Opp
Risk Risk
Risk
Risk
RiskRisk
Risk
Risk
PLO PLO
PLO
PLO
Risk
Risk
Crisis?: 1
Opp
Risk
Risk
Risk
Opp
Risk
Opp
Opp
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
PLO
PLO
PLO
PLO
PLO
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
5/7/12
weeks
Bad
Weather

PreApprove
Permit
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Crisis?: 2
I
M
P
A
C
T
H
I
Risk
Risk
2
Risk
Risk
L
O
Opp
Risk
Risk
4
Opp
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
Opp
1
Opp
Risk
Risk
Risk
Risk
3
Risk
Consider
Priorities:
T, P, C
Opp
Risk
LO
HI
Consider Break-point
Probability
PROBABILITY OF OCCURENCE
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Join the Dots…
Success
Measures
?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Priority Triangle
Time
Performance
X X
X
X
X
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Cost
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Priority Triangle
Time
X
X
Performance
X
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Cost
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Importance?
T
P
C
$1,000
$1,050
$
$1,350
950
Must
Should
Nice

?

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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Join the Dots…
Success
Measures
PM Maturity


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2003 - 2006
PM Maturity


It is all relative….
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Join the Dots…
Success
Measures
PM Maturity


Challenge
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Assessing the Project
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Assessing the Project
Scale
Nature
Relative
Size
3
1
2
Impact on
Organization
No impact on the
organization
Success or
failure will be
noticed but will
not significantly
impact
organization
Significant
impact on the
organization if
project fails or
succeeds. No
impact on
Executive
Project will
affect executives
depending on
the outcome
Project will
affect entire
organization,
depending on
the outcome
Complexity
Barriers to
Communication
One group,
know each other
well
>1 discipline but
no more than
two
organizations
involved
>2 Cultures,
many
professional and
technical
disciplines
Several
disciplines,
geographically
distributed,
several
organizations
Numerous
disciplines,
organizations
and cultures.
Different
languages
Uncertainty
Definition of end
of Project
Clearly defined
objectives and
end-product
Objective clear,
end product
defined,
approach
flexible
Objectives
understood,
solutions and
options not
finalized
Objective not
clear, several
possible
outcomes
Objective and
end product
unclear
Constraints
Flexibility: Time,
Cost and
Performance
No limitations on
resources, time.
Flexibility in
scope and
quality
Some flexibility
in Time OR cost
to met expected
Performance
Realistic
schedule and
budget for the
performance
expected by the
client
Tight schedule
and budget. No
room for error in
performance
criteria (scope
and quality)
Inadequate
budget and/or
schedule to
meet exacting
performance
requirements
Ugliness
Level of
attractiveness of
the project
Exciting,
prestigious
project,
excellent image
Working on this
project will likely
be a positive
experience
Will neither
excite nor
disappoint
participants.
Safe workplace
Challenging
project and
difficult work
environment
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by SMART
Project
will
damage image
and reputation
of participants.
Unhealthy work
environment
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
4
20
720
60
240
4
5
Assessing the Project
Renegade
1000
Repeater
100
Runner
10
Task
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Runner Projects
Budget
E.A.C.
115
110
110
100
100
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Repeater Projects
Budget
E.A.C. 95
95
95
98
100
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Renegade Projects
Budget
E.A.C. 50
40
55
80
100
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Team A
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Team B
Join the Dots…
Success
Measures
PM Maturity

Trust

Challenge
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2003 - 2006
A new look at our World…
Lead
Wisdom
Inspiration
Manage
Knowledge
Judgment
Administer
Information
Competence
Do
Data
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
SkillsPowered by SMART
What SMART Project
Management® is about . . .
PM Skills

Runners
(Commodity - Product)
Repeaters
Leadership
& Trust
(Product - Service)
Renegades
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(Service - Relationship)
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
With thanks to Jennifer Krahn and Ralph Levene
Intuition
•
•
•
•
•
Red Trust = “It feels Right”
Rapid Processing + Emotion
Rapid processing > Synapses
More connections > Better
A Course that works . . .
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Join the Dots…
Success
Measures
eDNA
PM Maturity

Trust

Challenge
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Matching Project and
Leader
• Top Five Skills
• Bottom five skills
• How to make the Bottom float to the
Top
• Trust, Courage, Wisdom…
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
The Bottom Five PM
Competencies
Based on work by Dr. J. Krahn
•
•
•
•
•
Technical skills
Political savvy
Relevant prior experience
Knowledge in project area
Charisma
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
The Top Five PM
Competencies
Based on work by Dr. J. Krahn
•
•
•
•
•
People skills
Leadership
Listening
Strong at building teams
Verbal communication
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Competence
in
Context
Based on work by Dr. J. Krahn
Large project team leadership
High risk
Ineffective
contractual terms
Complex project
(many disciplines)
people skills
strong
team
building
risk
management leadership
planning
conflict
resolution
relevant
experience
leadership
leadership
people skills
listening
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Competence
in
Context
Based on work by Dr. J. Krahn
Lacks scope
clarity
leadership
has vision
purpose goals
Not sr. mgt.
supported
leadership
self confidence people skills
risk
management
Large scope
leadership
planning
relevant prior
experience
High
uncertainty
risk
management
expectation
management
leadership
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2003 - 2006
Competence
in
Context
Based on work by Dr. J. Krahn
Challenging
politics
Very little
clarity (client)
Novel
project
Constrained
resources
people skills
verbal
comm.
expectation
management leadership
leadership
leadership
leadership,
expectation mgt
people skills
has vision
people skills purpose goals
planning
people skills,
balance
priorities
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Join the Dots…
Business
Context
Enterprise
Success
Measures
Program
Project
eDNA
PM Maturity

Trust

Challenge
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
A few important Questions
•
•
•
•
•
What’s the Problem?
What kind of Project is this anyhow?
Drivers?
Risks and Uncertainty?
Can we kill the Monster Project?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Solving the Right Problem
He keeps telling us
what the solution is,
but we still don’t know
what the problem is…
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Redefining Success
• Successful “Failed” Projects
– The Alberta S- Projects
– Sydney Opera House
– SAP, other ERP Systems
– Lots of others
• Failed “Successes”
– Avro Arrow
– Euro Tunnel
– Most Mergers and Acquisitions
– Lots of others…
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Decision Skills
•
•
•
•
Trust types
Red Trust – Intuition
Decisions bigger than the data
Turbo-brains
• Soft is hard
• Hard is easy
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Difficult Decisions
Thin
Data
Thinner
Information
Big
Decision
Add
Knowledge
Add
Wisdom
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Join the Dots…
Success
Measures
Business
Context
Enterprise
Project Language
vs.
Business Language
Program
Project
eDNA
PM Maturity

Trust

Challenge
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Management Made Simple
Lie about what
we can do
Blame
Accusations
Fictional
Team of
Super-heroes
Confirm the
lie
Do work and
Lie some more
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Join the Dots…
Success
Measures
Business
Context
Enterprise
Project Language
vs.
Business Language
Program
Project
eDNA
PM Maturity

Trust

Challenge
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Turbo-Brains
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Join the Dots…
Success
Measures
Business
Context
Enterprise
Project Language
vs.
Business Language
Program
Project
eDNA
PM Maturity

Trust

Challenge
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Managing IS/IT Projects
with
SMART Project Management®
Practice and Principles.
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Pick what we want to cover
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Select top topics
Agree on sequence
Do what we can…
Know where to go for more help…
Get involved in SMART
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Select top topics
1. Categorizing
projects
2. Charter overview
3. SBS
4. Risk
Management
5. Schedules that
work
6. Priorities
7. REAL Control
8. Stakeholder
Alignment
9. Contingencies
10. Progress
Meetings
11. 15 Questions
12. SMART Project
GPS™
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Agree on sequence
Can we follow the notes?
Can we skip important bits?
Are we OK with a few tips and hints?
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2003 - 2006
Do what we can…
• First time for this workshop
• Need your help
• Have fun…
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Know where more help is…
• SMI and QeD Inc.
• Beware of Uncertified Practitioners
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2003 - 2006
Get involved in SMART
• Certification
• Licensed Practitioners
• Corporate Licenses
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
SMART PM® Planning Agenda
•
•
Overview of SMART Project Management
Alignment
–
–
–
•
Schedule and Budgeting
–
–
•
3-D Schedule
PLO Estimating for Durations, Effort and Costs
Risk and Uncertainty Management
–
–
–
•
Three Key Questions
Priority Triangle
SMART Breakdown Structure
Finding and Mitigating
Communication
Target Setting
Turning a Plan into a Successful Project
–
–
–
–
Scheduling for Reality
Rolling Wave Planning
Contracting Strategies
Reporting and Documentation
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Objective
• Learning to have fun as Project Managers and as
Teams
• Basics of how projects work
• Some survival Tools and Techniques
• A different (management) look at what we do
• Understanding our stakeholders
• Help us choose the right next step
• Improve career opportunities?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
SMART Differences
•Redefined Project Management
•Redefined and added to PMBOK
•Respond to Uncertainty
•More Proactive and Flexible
•Faster, Cheaper and Better Projects
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Answer this . . .
You have $45 Million to spend. Which of
the following projects would you pick?
Why? What else do you need to know?
PROJECT
BUDGET ($x1,000)
1. Upgrade Hardware & Intranet for
50 Business units
12,600
2. PeopleSoft Implementation (3 modules)
22,700
3. Health/Fitness Facilities for Staff
7,400
4. Top-up of Pension Liabilities
42,800
5. Upgrade Risk Management System
8,750
6. Full SOX Compliance
34,500
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Our Organization, Unit,
Program, Project
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Where Our Project Fits
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Tie to Corporate Strategy
Part of program?
Only one Department or Bus. Unit?
Who are Stakeholders?
How do decisions get made?
Who Sanctions/Funds?
Measures for success consistent?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
© SMART Management Inc. and
Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd. 2001
SMART PM™ Charter...
S.B.S
3 Questions
3-D Schedule
Mission
KRs
Decision
Process Process
Process
Deliverable Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
P/L/O/T
P/L/O/T
Won,Done, Who
Decision
P/L/O/T
Process
P/L/O/T
(Stakeholders)
Deliverables
Exclusions
Needs Needs Needs
RACI+ Chart
GPS
t
Project Details
$
O Deliverable
O Gantt Chart
O People/Roles
O Plus...
Deliverable
Needs
Priority
Triangle
T,P,$
Risk Management
O Impact
O Probability
O Controllability
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O Monte Carlo Simulation
O Register
O Mitigation Plan
O Contingency Mgt.
© SMART Management Inc. 2001 and
Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd. 2001
SMART PM™ Charter...
S.B.S
3 Questions
3-D Schedule
Mission
KRs
Decision
Process Process
Process
Deliverable Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
P/L/O/T
P/L/O/T
Won,Done, Who
Decision
P/L/O/T
Process
P/L/O/T
(Stakeholders)
Deliverables
Exclusions
Needs Needs Needs
RACI+ Chart
GPS
t
Project Details
$
O Deliverable
O Gantt Chart
O People/Roles
O Plus...
Deliverable
Needs
Priority
Triangle
T,P,$
Risk Management
O Impact
O Probability
O Controllability
by SMART
O Monte Carlo Powered
Simulation
O Register
O Mitigation Plan
O Contingency Mgt.
Mission
•
•
•
•
•
What’s the PROBLEM?
What’s the SOLUTION?
Are there CHOICES?
What are you trying to achieve?
“Elevator Statement” summarizing this.
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Answering 15 Questions
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
What is the PROBLEM?
Is this the right project?
Connection to strategy?
Stakeholders’ needs?
Key results for success?
Success ranges ($,T,P)?
Risks known?
Risk mitigation?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Delivery processes clear?
Deliverables defined?
Stakeholders aligned
Priorities clarified
Team effective?
Communications clear?
Contracting strategy OK?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Scope of Projects (SBS)
•
•
•
•
•
What The SBS is
How it works
Important points about SBSs
Your Project’s SBS
Be prepared to present (one team)
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
© SMART Management Inc. 2001 and
Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd. 2001
SMART PM™ Charter...
S.B.S
3 Questions
3-D Schedule
Mission
KRs
Decision
Process Process
Process
Deliverable Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
P/L/O/T
P/L/O/T
Won,Done, Who
Decision
P/L/O/T
Process
P/L/O/T
(Stakeholders)
Deliverables
Exclusions
Needs Needs Needs
RACI+ Chart
GPS
t
Project Details
$
O Deliverable
O Gantt Chart
O People/Roles
O Plus...
Deliverable
Needs
Priority
Triangle
T,P,$
Risk Management
O Impact
O Probability
O Controllability
by SMART
O Monte Carlo Powered
Simulation
O Register
O Mitigation Plan
O Contingency Mgt.
SBS – Structure

Mission
Stakeholder
Stakeholder
Key



 Result 






Stakeholder
Expectations



Stakeholder









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Deliverables
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
SBS – Components
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mission
Stakeholders
Key Results
Deliverables
Parking Lot
Exclusions
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
SBS – Mission
•
•
•
•
•
Elevator Statement
Captures the PROBLEM
Shows the SOLUTION
Indicates the VALUE
Process:
– Free thinking
– Some parts may turn out to belong elsewhere
– Wordsmith later
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
SBS – Key Results and
Stakeholders
• Start with the Stakeholders
– Identify them
– Group them with others who have similar
expectations (KRs)
– Rank them for this project
• What does each stakeholder group
expect?
– Key Results are Measurable
– OK to share with other Stakeholder groups
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2003 - 2006
SBS – Deliverables
• All Deliverables have a physical manifestation
• KRs are met through Deliverables
• Validate that KR Metric can be measured when last
Deliverable is done
• Break big Deliverables into smaller ones
• Break those into more detail as detail appears
• Add additional layers when it makes sense to do so
• Add Price (PLO), Elapsed Time (PLO) and Effort (PLO) for
each Deliverable
• Estimates roll up and down on SBS
• Add SBS codes.
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2003 - 2006
Deliverable Types
•
•
•
•
•
Input and Output Deliverables
Process and Result
Must, Should and Nice
Existing and Future
Controllable and Uncontrollable
(usually Input deliverables)
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
SBS – Parking Lot
• Place to put Deliverables if:
– Maybe in Scope
– Too ill-defined to understand
– Have been excluded but are sensitive
• Parking lot holds any and all other
issues that need more time to
understand or that have not been
excluded yet – but are expected to.
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
SBS – Exclusions
• All specifically excluded items
• Need to explain to stakeholders:
– Not in Exclusions not same as included!
– Purpose is to help delimit
• This list needs to be added to
whenever a stakeholder asks for
something that is not in scope.
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Other SBS Tips
• “Cloudy” Issues
– Temporary definition
– Based on budget or other resources
• Hidden Agenda items
– Put suspects in Exclusions, stand back!
• Decide what governs for control:
– T: Stop when time runs out
– P: Must Should and Nice
– C: Do what you can for Budget
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Using SBS for Estimating - 1
• Estimate what is in scope
• Each deliverable:
– Money
– Effort
– Elapsed Time
– Specification
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Using SBS for Estimating – 2
• Range Estimates
• State and document Assumptions
• Parent value = sum of children values
(before contingency)
• Add contingencies for targets
• Test and cross-check for reality
–
–
–
–
Task team size/communication/coord’n
Timing and availability of resources
In-house v. Outsourced
Basis of Estimate
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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© SMART Management Inc. 2001 and
Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd. 2001
SMART PM™ Charter...
S.B.S
3 Questions
3-D Schedule
Mission
KRs
Decision
Process Process
Process
Deliverable Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
P/L/O/T
P/L/O/T
Won,Done, Who
Decision
P/L/O/T
Process
P/L/O/T
(Stakeholders)
Deliverables
Exclusions
Needs Needs Needs
RACI+ Chart
GPS
t
Project Details
$
O Deliverable
O Gantt Chart
O People/Roles
O Plus...
Deliverable
Needs
Priority
Triangle
T,P,$
Risk Management
O Impact
O Probability
O Controllability
by SMART
O Monte Carlo Powered
Simulation
O Register
O Mitigation Plan
O Contingency Mgt.
Three Key Questions
3
2
1
• How do you know the project is
DONE?
• How do you know the project is
successful (You’ve WON)?
• WHO gets to make the call on
questions 1 and 2! (ask this first)?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Criteria for Success
• The Three Questions asked at the
PARTY at end of this SUCCESSFUL
project
• Cross-check with SBS components
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
© SMART Management Inc. and
Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd. 2001
SMART PM™ Charter...
S.B.S
3 Questions
3-D Schedule
Mission
KRs
Decision
Process Process
Process
Deliverable Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
P/L/O/T
P/L/O/T
Won,Done, Who
Decision
P/L/O/T
Process
P/L/O/T
(Stakeholders)
Deliverables
Exclusions
Needs Needs Needs
RACI+ Chart
GPS
t
Project Details
$
O Deliverable
O Gantt Chart
O People/Roles
O Plus...
Deliverable
Needs
Priority
Triangle
T,P,$
Risk Management
O Impact
O Probability
O Controllability
by SMART
O Monte Carlo Powered
Simulation
O Register
O Mitigation Plan
O Contingency Mgt.
Aligned
T
Align the
Architect…
Sys.
Arch.
Users
Sponsor
BOSS
PM
P
Dev’t
team
Subs Sponsor
C
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
… and then the
others…
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Checking Value against
Priorities
• TEST Priority Triangle and KRs
• TEST Priority Triangle and MISSION
• TEST Priority Triangle and
STAKEHOLDER EXPECTATIONS
• TEST Priority Triangle and 3 KEY
QUESTIONS
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
© SMART Management Inc. and
Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd. 2001
SMART PM™ Charter
S.B.S
3 Questions
3-D Schedule
Mission
KRs
Decision
Process Process
Process
Deliverable Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
P/L/O/T
P/L/O/T
Won,Done, Who
Decision
P/L/O/T
Process
P/L/O/T
(Stakeholders)
Deliverables
Exclusions
Needs Needs Needs
RACI+ Chart
GPS
t
Project Details
$
O Deliverable
O Gantt Chart
O People/Roles
O Plus...
Deliverable
Needs
Priority
Triangle
T,P,$
Risk Management
O Impact
O Probability
O Controllability
by SMART
O Monte Carlo Powered
Simulation
O Register
O Mitigation Plan
O Contingency Mgt.
Scheduling Backwards
• WHY BACKWARDS?
– Self-fulfilling Prophesy
– Explicit, not implicit assumptions
– Understand when a project drops dead
– Hard work!
– Forces more linear thinking
– Focus is on getting there and success
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
The 3-D Schedule Process
• Move result deliverables from the SBS
to the 3-D Schedule
• Plan from the back to the front
• Use PLO estimates
• Conduct risk analysis and mitigation
• Target and re-plan from the front to the
back
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
3-D Plan Durations
• Add PLO durations/costs for each
process
• Perfect (P) - how much duration &
cost under perfect conditions?
• Likely (L) - how much duration & cost
under under normal circumstances?
• Outrageous (O) - how much duration
& cost if past problems arise again?
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Know what’s Next?: 1
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
3-D Planning
…adding Target Durations
Process
Process
PLOT
PLOT
PLOT
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Process
Deliverable
Process
PLOT
Deliverable
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
2-D and 1-D Schedules
• In addition to Drop Dead Dates (3-D)
– When a Deliverable is to be delivered
• Definition Dates (2-D)
– When deliverables have FINAL
Definition
• Decisions (1-D)
– Usually needed before we can define
our deliverables . . .
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
What is behind a 3-D?
Process
Process
PLOT
PLOT
PLOT
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Process
Deliverable
Process
PLOT
Deliverable
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Checks and Balances
•
•
•
•
Plan twice, and in different ways
Compare results
Get the right people involved
Manage what is important and
volatile more than anything
• Keep people informed and
involved
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
EXERCISE
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Re-checking your Plan
• Do you have the resources?
• Work Density?
• Team and group sizes?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
EXERCISE
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Stakeholder Management
•
•
•
•
Get right people involved at start
Engage Sponsor
Sign ON to Charter
Track Key Results and Changes
against interested Stakeholders
• Get engaged at CheckPoints and
OffRamps
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Quick Review
• Scope and SBS
– Estimating
– Specification
•
•
•
•
Priority Triangle
High-level Scheduling
Stakeholder Management
Checking the Plan
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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© SMART Management Inc. and
Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd. 2001
SMART PM™ Charter...
S.B.S
3 Questions
3-D Schedule
Mission
KRs
Decision
Process Process
Process
Deliverable Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
P/L/O/T
P/L/O/T
Won,Done, Who
Decision
P/L/O/T
Process
P/L/O/T
(Stakeholders)
Deliverables
Exclusions
Needs Needs Needs
RACI+ Chart
GPS
t
Project Details
$
O Deliverable
O Gantt Chart
O People/Roles
O Plus...
Deliverable
Needs
Priority
Triangle
T,P,$
Risk Management
O Impact
O Probability
O Controllability
by SMART
O Monte Carlo Powered
Simulation
O Register
O Mitigation Plan
O Contingency Mgt.
PM Past - Project Selection
Project A


48%
15%
33%
?
Project B
TV
Probability
P50 TV
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006

24%
95%
33%
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PM Past - CPM
Activity
A

What aActivity
B
Surprise!
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
9/10/12
10
0/10/112
10
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Risk evaluation and
management
Find the
Risks
Manage to
Target Plan
Qualitative then
Quantitative
Analysis
Develop
Management
Strategy
& Plan
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Classify
and
Prioritize
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Before we get into Risk…
• Basic Estimating
– Elapsed time
– Cost
– Effort
– Resources
• PLO Estimates for each of these
• Defining deliverables by Estimate
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Basic Estimate for a
Deliverable
•
•
•
•
•
Define the Deliverable: a Report
Best guess at elapsed time (10 days)
Best guess at Cost ($ 50,000)
Best guess at Effort (60 hrs)
Best guess at Resources
– Consultant (fee of $50,000)
– Briefing (10 hrs); Progress(5hrs);Draft review (15 hrs);
Present findings(10+5 hrs); listen and Action (3x5 hrs)
– Consultant at $200 per hour burns 250 hours for fee.
Equals 25 hours/day ave. so just over 3 people needed,
and peak workforce at about 4 or 5.
– Our resources: Me, Boss and 2 Stakeholders
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• THESE ARE SINGLE POINT ESTIMATES.
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Why Ranges?
• Fixed Point implies NO RISK
• Reality is estimates=guesses
• Ranges supply added information
– Uncertainty
– Possible risks
– Different opinions and rationales
– Cross-checks.
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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A Good Risk Sticky
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Questions to ask
(with apologies to children everywhere)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Do we have to?
Why?
Why me?
What’s in it for me?
Will you show me how to do it?
Will it hurt?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Issues
• Marketplace opportunities
• Business, Technology* and
Social (*includes Environmental)
• Competitors and challenge to
position
• How will risks change over
time
• Impact on business
• Sunk cost syndrome.
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Prioritizing Risks
I
M
P
A
C
T
H
I
2
1
Consider
Priorities:
T, P, C
L
O
4
3
LO
HI
Consider Break-point
Probability
PROBABILITY
OF OCCURENCE
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Management Options
•
•
•
•
•
Ignore - VERY DANGEROUS!
Insure - Insurance and Surety
Contingency - Self-insure
Avoid - Get rid of the risk
Accept - balance of benefits against
penalties
• Spread or Reduce - Risk Sharing Options
• Contract out (Transfer) - Do you know
what you are paying?
• Remove - eliminate from project
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Next Exercise
• Find the Risks on your project:
–
–
–
–
–
Brainstorm
Look at PLO estimates and ask “Why?”
Consider Each major deliverable and Process
Look at KRs and Stakeholders
Brainstorm again
• Locate Risks on 3-D Schedule
• Place Risks in a Risk Matrix
• Assign Type 1 risks to team members and
mitigate them
• Revisit PLOs for affected deliverables.
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Target and Contingencies
• Target = A REALISTIC estimate of
what we know to get project done at
a given probability of success.
• Contingency = additional funds to
preserve the REALISTIC estimate but
covering the stuff we do not know.
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Top-down or Bottom-up?
Target = L with 3 weeks “float”
Element
9/12/17/15 weeks
9/12/17 weeks
12 weeks
3/4/6/5 weeks
Element
Element
Element
3/4/6/5
Elementweeks Element
Element
Element
Element
3/4/6/5 weeks
2/3/4/4 weeks
Element
Element
Element
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Organizing Contingency - 1
• Traditional versus new thinking
– 5% or a number based on risk profile?
– Spend when you have to or when you
should?
– What if you do not spend it?
– Hidden versus visible contingencies?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Organizing Contingency – 2
• How much contingency is
reasonable?
• Who holds and controls it?
• Who should be involved in
Contingency setting?
– Process includes risk assessment
– Process requires Sponsor participation
and buy-in
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Risk Summary
• Risks are a part of Projects
• Analysis and Management
tools are well documented
• They are used with increasing
frequency
• Risk managed well plays a
large part in project success
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Planning for Reality
• What we have:
–
–
–
–
Schedule (3-D, Gantt, CPM)
Scope (SBS, specifications, Key Results)
Budget (Costs, resources, effort)
Risks (+contingencies, mitigation and revised plans)
• What we need:
–
–
–
–
–
Real resource Availability
Real dates and times
Input Deliverables
Output Deliverables
Other Constraints
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Real Calendar and Resources
Raw Schedule
Revised
Schedule
Any other
constraints
in this
space?
Summer
Holiday Season
Winter
Christmas Break
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Input and Output Deliverables
Raw Schedule
Revised
Schedule
Any other
constraints
in this
space?
Summer
Holiday Season
Winter
Christmas Break
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Other Constraints and
Realities
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Financing
Approvals
Regulatory requirements
Competing Projects
Supply and Demand
Risks
… and lots more!
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Setting Targets
• Reduce range to single point for
management
• Understand what working with
Perfect means
• Likely is unlikely (L=Lie?)
• Target = Team Commitment.
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Exercise
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Resources - the CRITICAL Reality
•
•
•
•
•
•
In house or contracted?
Who controls the resources?
Committing to a plan
Work Density, Availability
Learning curves
Expectations for performance:
– Trade-off: cost, time, deliverable performance
• Expectations of team members
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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What to Measure?
•
•
•
•
•
What is important on our project?
What CAN you measure?
Why measure it?
What does that measure tell you?
Is there value in that measure?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Measurement suggestions
•
•
•
•
Deliverables delivered
When delivered
Effort used in delivery
Value for effort/money
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Charter Checklist
• SBS
• 3-D Schedule, incl.
OffRamps and CheckPoints
•
•
•
•
•
•
3 Questions
Priority Triangle
Risk Matrix, Schedule
Plan for first weeks
Contracting Strategy
Success Metrics
Agreed
• Team Commitment
• Cross-check of
Charter Components
• Targets for T,P & C
• Answer 1+14
Questions
• Know what we Don’t
Know!
• Sign-on by
Stakeholders
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Final Charter Characteristics
•
•
•
•
•
Reflect realities of what you know
Cross-checked for consistency
Sign-on by stakeholders
Start on detail planning
Target-based, reflecting ownership
and challenge
• Start on delivery . . .
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
© SMART Management Inc. and
Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd. 2001
SMART PM™ Charter...
S.B.S
3 Questions
3-D Schedule
Mission
KRs
Decision
Process Process
Process
Deliverable Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
Deliverable
P/L/O/T
P/L/O/T
Won,Done, Who
Decision
P/L/O/T
Process
P/L/O/T
(Stakeholders)
Deliverables
Exclusions
Needs Needs Needs
RACI+ Chart
GPS
t
Project Details
$
O Deliverable
O Gantt Chart
O People/Roles
O Plus...
Deliverable
Needs
Priority
Triangle
T,P,$
Risk Management
O Impact
O Probability
O Controllability Powered by SMART
O Monte Carlo Simulation
O Register
O Mitigation Plan
O Contingency Mgt.
Project GPS
Q
x
Expenditure
T
Now
$
Performance Indicator
Elapsed Time
R1
R2
Performance Indicator
R3
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R4
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Starting to use RACI+ Charts
•
•
•
•
•
Deciding what you need on a RACI+
Setting up your Spreadsheet
Getting Started on Weekly Plans
Updating the RACI+ Chart
Weekly Checklists
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Setting up your RACI+
Spreadsheet - 1
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Exercise
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Project GPS
Q
x
Expenditure
T
Now
$
Performance Indicator
Elapsed Time
R1
R2
Performance Indicator
R3
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R4
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Project GPS
Schedule
–2
Q
x
Expenditure
T
Now
$
Performance Indicator
Elapsed Time
R1
R2
Performance Indicator
R3
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R4
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Schedule – 3
Project Approved
60
Σ
FTE
Available FTE
Actual FTE
30
40
20
40
60
85
Plan Complete 150
Tech Specs. 410
100
60 70 100 105 100
1.5 1.75 2.5 2.6 2.5
1.5 1.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
1.5 1.5
75
50
75 50
1.75 1.25
2.0
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Exercise
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Cost - 1
• Similar principles to Time for
Elapsed Time and Effort
• Add granularity
• Consider tracking by cost codes
• Cost codes same as Deliverables
Codes? (good if they are!)
• Separate Effort and Expenditures
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Project GPS
Q
x
Expenditure
T
Now
$
Performance Indicator
Elapsed Time
R1
R2
Performance Indicator
R3
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R4
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Project
Cost -GPS
2
Q
x
Expenditure
T
Now
$
Performance Indicator
Elapsed Time
R1
R2
Performance Indicator
R3
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R4
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Quality
• Link to Key Results
• Deliverables Specs.:
– Review as they become live
– Engage vendor(s) in establishing
standards
– Plan to avoid rejection of any product
– If you expect problems allow for
recycling in the plan!
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Project GPS
Q
x
Expenditure
T
Now
$
Performance Indicator
Elapsed Time
R1
R2
Performance Indicator
R3
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R4
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Progress Meetings - agenda
• What has been done - 5 minutes
• What was missed - 5 to 15 minutes
• What was impacted, and how do we fix it - up to
20 minutes
• What do we deliver next week - 2 minutes
• Problems? up to 15 minutes
• Review to end of project - up to 10 minutes
• TOTAL TIME - no more than one hour once we
know what we are doing
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
The Progress trick
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Communicate informally
Listen
Assess Change impacts carefully
Focus on deliverables
Have Fun
Hand over products
Plan to finish!
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Essentials of effective
project control
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Start with a Yardstick (project baseline)
Measure consistently
Control requires a closed loop
Delegation keeps process clean and simple
Optimize paperwork and reporting
Manage by exception
Avoid micro-management
Communicate (both ways)
Be positive (attitude is contagious!)
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Things to measure
• Cost - compare to budget
• Work hours - compare with expected
productivity
• Schedule - compare to plans
• Quality - measure against specifications
• Scope - measure against original or
modified deliverables
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Proactive Earned Value
• Used to determine if you will have
enough resources next period
• Compare Budget to be spent with
available resources:
Budget for next week’s deliverables = 200 hrs
Resources = 2 full time and 3part time (50%)
personnel.
Can the work be delivered in a 40-hr week?
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Planning for Completion
•
•
•
•
Like a mini-project: own Plan
Consider motivation of the team
Set clear date and drive to it
Understand where compromises may
exist
• Manage Expectations
• Keep stakeholders engaged.
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Course Closure
•
•
•
•
•
•
What did you learn
Issues and advice on the course?
What can you use tomorrow?
More emphasis/next course?
Less Emphasis?
Good luck on your next project!
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Released in April 2000
PEOPLE SAY:
•A better way
•It is so simple
•I am using it already
Canadian
Best
Seller
2000, 2001,
2002
PEOPLE KNOW:
•SMART Saved us over $60
million on the first project
•…expect over 25% cost
and time reduction
•Savings are only the
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beginning…
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
NEW in 2003:Better
Contracting
• About 15% of capital
investment is wasted
• Trust but Verify
• Managing relationships
saves $
• What is in the markups?
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
Where are we going next?
• Demographic Challenge
• Managing Wisdom
• New Coping Skills
– Ambiguity
– Uncertainty
– Change
– Innovation
– Stretch Performance
–
More demands on the Project Manager and the Team….
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
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Beware of Imitations
SMART Project Management®
SMART Program Management®
SMART Management®
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
The End
[email protected]
[email protected]
Tel: +1 403 681 7337
Fax: +1 403 208 2403
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Quality Enhanced Decisions (QeD) Inc., Calgary, AB Canada.
© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006
We want to earn your Business
QeD Inc.,
340 14 Street NW
Calgary, AB
T2N 1Z7
Tel: (403) 681-7337
Fax: (403) 208-2403
Why QED?
• Quod Erat
Demonstrandum: Latin
for “It has been proven”.
• Quite Easily Done!
• Quality Enhanced
Decisions
• QeD Inc is all about
pushing the boundaries
of performance
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© Francis Hartman Holdings Ltd.
2003 - 2006