Transcript Slide 1

The ABS Industry MFP
Database
Hui Wei
Australian Bureau of Statistics
Outline
Overview of the ABS Industry MFP
Database
How key variables are measured
Outstanding issues
Towards KLEMS model
Overview
First release of experimental industry MFP
database in 2007
The framework of Jorgenson, Gollop and
Fraumeni (1987)
12 industries
Gross value added MFP estimates span from
1964-65 to 2008-09
Gross output MFP estimates span from 199495 to 2007-08
Industry Coverage
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, gas, water & waste services
Construction
Wholesale trade
Retail trade
Accommodation & food services
Transport, postal & warehousing
Information, media & telecommunications
Financial & insurance services
Arts & recreation services
How Variables Are Measured
VA, GO and intermediate inputs are measured as
chained Laspeyres indexes
Tornqvist capital services index based on weighted
changes in productive capital stock
Labour input is plain hours worked index without
accounting for quality factor
The Measurement of Intermediate Inputs
Intermediate inputs are measured as total
intermediate usage in one bundle
The constant price measures are derived using high
level price deflators
Current price intermediate usage is available at
detailed commodity level
It is feasible to break down intermediate inputs into
energy, material and services and derive constant
price measures
Capital Asset Types
 Cultivated biological resources
Livestock fixed assets
Orchards, plantations & vineyards
 Intellectual property products
Computer software
R&D
Mineral & petroleum exploration
Artistic Originals
 Inventories
 Machinery & equipment
Electrical & electronic equipment
Industrial machinery & equipment
Other plant & equipment
Other transport equipment
Road vehicles
 Land
 Non-dwelling construction
 Ownership transfer costs
Capital Services
Hyperbolic age-efficiency function is used in
estimating productive capital stock
Rental prices are derived using the framework of
Hall and Jorgenson (1967)
Rates of return are estimated by using a
combination of endogenous and exogenous
methods (with CPI + 4% as floor)
A small positive number (0.001) is applied in case of
negative rental prices
Labour Input
Hours worked data are from Labour Force
Survey (LFS)
Total hours worked is the product of
employment number by average hours
worked per person
Employment number estimates are subject
to notable sampling error as LFS not
stratified by industry
Work-in-progress for Labour Input
Full Australian Census Data (1981 1986 1991 1996
2001 2006)
Key variables: gender, age, education, income,
hours worked, number of persons, employee & selfemployed, industry
Census benchmarks are applied to averages of LFS
data to derive annual estimates
Annual Average Growth Rates in
Value Added Based MFP
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Mining
Manufacturing
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services
Construction
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Accommodation and Food Services
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Information, Media and Telecommunications
Financial and Insurance Services
Arts and Recreation Services
12 Selected industries
1985-86 to 1988-89 to 1993-94 to 1998-99 to 2003-04 to 1985-86 to
1988-89
1993-94
1998-99
2003-04
2007-08
2007-08
0.8
4.0
4.0
2.9
-1.2
3.1
2.5
3.0
0.6
-0.3
-4.2
0.3
2.1
0.1
0.4
1.4
-0.9
0.7
5.7
3.2
1.9
-1.7
-4.4
0.8
-2.3
-0.5
2.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
1.2
-2.1
5.8
1.1
0.3
1.6
-2.2
2.0
2.3
1.1
0.5
1.3
-1.1
-0.3
1.7
0.4
0.1
0.4
-1.2
1.7
2.3
2.0
1.6
1.9
2.9
6.3
3.8
-0.4
0.9
3.3
3.9
4.9
1.3
1.0
2.5
3.3
-2.2
-1.6
-1.5
1.2
-1.0
-1.1
1.0
1.0
2.1
0.9
-0.2
1.3
Outstanding Issues
MFP puzzles for ‘problematic’ industries
Agriculture
Mining
Electricity, gas & water
Robust MFP measures for services
industries
Increased user demand for MFP measures
of education and health sectors
Towards KLEMS Model
Likely to be on our forward work program in
the near future
EU KLEMS Program offers useful short cuts
to generate separate volume indexes for
energy, material and services for the ABS
Product balanced SU tables in constant
prices not available at the ABS
SU tables are balanced in aggregate to
balance GDP measures