Transcript SE Florida Road User Costs

Southeast Florida Roadway & Transit User
Cost Calculators
presented to
SE Florida FSUTMS Users Group
by
FDOT D4 PL&EM
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
May 8, 2009
Transportation leadership you can trust.
Agenda
Introduction
Travel Time Values
Vehicle Operating Costs
Transit Operating Costs
Calculator
Application Examples
Discussion
2
Purpose
Better assessment of transportation
improvement benefits
• Systemwide
− LRTP
• Corridor alternative comparison
− Benefit/Cost Analysis
• Operational improvements
− Cost of lane closures
− Value of early completion
3
The Calculator
4

Provides unit costs for various segmentations

Provides price escalation trends for future costs

Output FL and SE FL values

Allows for overwriting default inputs

Up to users to decide how to use it
Components
Travel Time Value (TTV)
• Auto; Truck
Transit User TTV
− Bus; Tri-Rail; Metrorail
Vehicle Operating Cost
(VOC)
• Auto; Truck
Transit Operating Cost
• Bus; Commuter Rail; Light Rail; Demand Response
5
Highway Components
RUC = TTV + VOC
Road User Cost = Travel Time Value + Vehicle Operating Cost
6
Methodology
TTV Market Segmentations
Segmentation Type
7
Segmentation Details
Mode
Auto, Transit: Access and In/Out-Vehicle
Occupational
Commercial Vehicle Drivers
Purpose of Travel
Personal/Visitor, Commute, Business (On-the-Clock)
Time of Day
Peak, Off-Peak
1: Travel Time Values
Based on hourly wage
• Personal trips
50%
• Commute trips
60%
• On-the-clock trips
100%
Base Figures in 2004$
8
Travel Time Value Validation Survey
Telephone survey, stated preference
5,000 random households
Miami-Dade to Indian River
Dec ’04 - Jan ’05
1,070 successful responses
Work trips: $10 - $13/hr
Non-work: 40% of wage
9
Transit User Travel Time Value
Trip purpose segmentation
• Personal travel/Visitor
• Commute
• On-the-clock
Time-of-Day segmentation
• Peak; off-peak
Based on transit on-board surveys
• 1999 SEFL Travel Characteristics Survey
• 2007 Tri-Rail On-Board Survey
• 2004 Metro-Rail On-Board Survey
• 2004 Metrobus On-Board Survey
10
Wage Projection
Wage Data is available from 1951 to 2006.
Regression Analysis indicates strong fit (R-square = 0.998).
According to Social Security Online (www.ssa.org), national
median wage is about 70% of national average wage.
Future year TTVs are
calculated based on
projected median
wages.
Annual Average Wage vs Year
$45,000
$40,000
y = 12.616x2 - 49273.473x + 48113252.192
Historical Average Wage
2
R = 0.998
Fitted Wage Line
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
11
$5,000
$1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Travel Time Values (2004)
Commuter, Personal, and On-the-clock Travel TTVs
Hourly median wage (2000)
Personal (local)
Personal (visitor)
Commuter
On-the-clock
Florida
Median
$9.96/Hr
$5.52/Hr
$6.00/Hr
$6.63/Hr
$11.39/Hr
Annual median wages from 2000 census: SEFL = $21,975; FL = $20,721
Median income is about 70% of average income.
12
Southeast
Florida
$10.56/Hr
$5.86/Hr
$6.00/Hr
$7.03/Hr
$12.08/Hr
% of
Wage Rate
50%
50%
60%
100%
Commercial Vehicle Travel Time Values (2004)
On-the-Clock TTVs
Hourly median wage (2000)
Hourly median wage (2004)
Florida
Median
$9.96/Hr
Southeast
Florida
$10.56/Hr
$11.39/Hr
$12.08/Hr
Annual median wages from 2000 census: SEFL = $21,975; FL = $20,721
Median income is about 70% of average income.
13
Transit User Travel Time Values (2004)
Commuter, Personal, and On-the-clock Travel TTVs
Florida
Median
14
Southeast
Florida
Median Transit User
Wage (2000)
Hourly (2000)
$9,094
$4.37/Hr
$9,644
$4.64/Hr
Commuter
Personal (local)
Personal (visitor)
On-the-clock
$3.57/Hr
$2.38/Hr
$2.58/Hr
$7.14/Hr
$3.78/Hr
$2.52/Hr
$2.58/Hr
$7.57/Hr
% of
Wage Rate
75%
50%
50%
100%
2: Vehicle Operating Costs (VOC)
Cost
Parameters
15
Adjustment Factors
Vehicle Operating Cost Assumptions
Vehicle class types – compact, mid-size, large, SUV,
Minivan, and trucks
Driving range – 12,000-15,000 miles per year
Vehicle lifespan – 150,000 mi
Southeast Florida
• Urban setting
• Flat surface
16
Factors Affecting Vehicle Operating Costs
Cost
Category
17
City vs.
Highway
Pavement
Roughness
Geography
Vehicle Age
Fuel
Consumption
Yes
No
Yes
No
Maintenance
and Repair
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Tires
No
Yes
No
No
Depreciation
Yes
Yes
No
Yes
Default Assumptions
Urban settings assumed in South Florida
City conditions generate 35% more fuel consumption than
highway conditions
About 3% annual price increase applied to maintenance
and repairs based on historical (20-year period) CPI
trends
18
Fuel Trends Regression
Crude Oil Price vs Year
$120.00
Crude Oil
Fitted Crude Oil Price
$100.00
Price
$80.00
$60.00
y = 2E-46e 0.0543x
R2 = 0.8161
$40.00
$20.00
$0.00
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
2010
2020
Fuel Trends Regression
350.0
Gas Price vs Year
Gas Price
300.0
Fitted Gas Price
Gas Price (cents)
250.0
200.0
y = 1.33380E-23e2.87708E-02x
R2 = 8.50203E-01
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Fuel Trends Regression
Crude Oil Price vs. Gas Price
$120.00
$3.50
Crude Oil
Gas
$3.00
$100.00
$40.00
Correlation between Gas Price and
Crude Oil Price is 0.97
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
$0.00
4
19 6
4
19 8
50
19
5
19 2
5
19 4
56
19
5
19 8
6
19 0
62
19
6
19 4
6
19 6
6
19 8
70
19
7
19 2
7
19 4
76
19
7
19 8
8
19 0
82
19
8
19 4
8
19 6
8
19 8
90
19
9
19 2
9
19 4
96
19
9
20 8
0
20 0
02
20
0
20 4
0
20 6
08
$20.00
Year
Gas Price
$2.00
$60.00
19
Crude Oil Price
$2.50
$80.00
CPI Regression
CPI vs Year
250
Historical CPI
Fitted CPI
200
y = 4.428x - 8682.553
2
R = 0.996
CPI
150
100
50
0
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
2000
2005
2010
Vehicle Operating Costs – Depreciation Cost
Region
Compact
Mid-size
Large
Minivan
SUV
Annual ($)
South Florida
$1,805
$1,991
$4,031
$2,418
$4,269
South Florida
(cents/mile)
12-15
13-16
27-33
16-20
28-35
Annual ($)
Florida
$1,809
$1,995
$4,039
$2,423
$4,278
Florida
(cents/mile)
12-15
13-16
27-33
16-20
28-35
2004 $
23
Vehicle Operating Costs – Insurance Cost
Region
Annual Avg.
South Florida
Cents/mile
Annual Avg.
Florida
Cents/mile
U.S.
2004 $
24
Compact
Mid-size
Large
Minivan
SUV
$1,147
$1,000
$917
$897
$963
8-10
7-8
6-8
6-7
6-8
$1,100
$955
$877
$853
$925
7-9
6-8
6-7
6-7
6-8
1.4-8.6
Vehicle Operating Costs – Fuel Cost
Region
Compact
Mid-size
(cents/mile) MPG (24-34) MPG (24-30)
Minivan
MPG (19-27)
SUV
MPG (16-21)
Southeast
Florida
4-7
5-7
6-10
6-9
7-10
Florida
4-7
5-7
6-10
6-9
7-10
U.S.
$/gallon = $1.53-$1.65 (2004)
25
Large
MPG (17-25)
6.1-8.3
Vehicle Operating Costs – Financial Charges
Region
(cents/mile)
Compact
Mid-size
Large
Minivan
SUV
Southeast
Florida
2-4
2-4
3-5
3-5
4-6
Florida
2-4
2-4
3-5
3-5
4-6
U.S.
Average interest rate = 4.45% (2004)
Financial Charges = Interest on vehicle loan
26
4.4-7.4
Vehicle Operating Costs – Fuel Tax
Region
(cents/mile)
Compact
Mid-size
Large
Minivan
SUV
Southeast
Florida
1-2
1-2
2-3
2-3
2-4
Florida
1-2
1-2
2-3
2-3
2-3
U.S.
Federal = 18.4 cents/gallon
State = 14.3 cents/gallon
Local = 6-12 cents/gallon
27
1.8- 4.1
Vehicle Operating Cost Components
Mid-size Auto
Cost Items
VOC in cents/mile
SEFL
FL
SEFL
FL
Fuel Cost
$1,160
$1,160
9.7
9.7
Fuel Tax
$275
$259
2.3
2.2
Maintenance and Repairs
$259
$259
2.2
2.2
Tires
$119
$119
1.0
1.0
Insurance
$1,078
$1,020
9.0
8.5
Total Depreciation
$1,632
$1,632
13.6
13.6
Finance Charges
$479
$481
4.0
4.0
License and Registration
$51
$51
0.4
0.4
$5,054
$4,981
42.1
41.5
Total Annual Costs
2004 $
28
Annual VOC
Auto and Commercial VOC (2004)
29
Florida
Per Mile
Annual
Cost
Cost
Southeast Florida
Per Mile
Annual
Cost
Cost
Small
$0.395
$4,741
$0.389
$4,666
Median
$0.421
$5,054
$0.415
$4,981
Large
Single-Unit
Truck
CombinationUnit Truck
$0.540
$6,481
$0.534
$6,412
$0.488
$48,789
$0.484
$48,435
$0.710
$71,047
$0.707
$70,652
Fleet Average
$0.552
$12,657
$0.518
$9,327
Transit Operating Costs
Service and cost data obtained from National Transit
Database (NTD) - Federal Transit Administration
Modes:
• Bus; Demand Response; Commuter Rail; Light Rail
Data:
• Services: passenger trips; revenue hours; revenue miles
• Costs: operators’ wage; material and supplies; utilities;
insurance; tax; purchased transportation; ADA related
expense; other expenses.
Unit cost = (total costs)/(total services provided)
Transit Vehicle Operating Costs (2004)
Southeast Florida Transit Vehicle Operating Costs
Bus
Demand
Response
(DO)
Demand
Response
(PT)
Commuter
Rail
Light Rail
(Tampa)
Total Expense
(thousand)
$437,916
$4,560
$110,817
$31,414
$1,608
Total Passenger Trips
(thousand)
129,010.2
270.5
3,029.4
2,674.6
520.2
57,519.7
1,338.0
30,147.6
2,685.1
174.3
4,411.0
98.1
2,077.9
77.6
36.0
Cost / Passenger Trip
$3.2
$16.86
$36.58
$11.7
$3.1
Cost / Revenue Mile
$7.1
$3.4
$3.7
$11.7
$9.2
Cost / Revenue Hour
$93.0
$46.5
$53.3
$404.8
$44.6
Total Revenue Miles
(thousand)
Total Revenue Hours
(thousand)
31
3. Calculators
Auto and Commercial Vehicle User TTV Calculator
Transit User TTV Calculator
Auto and Commercial VOC Calculator
Transit VOC Calculator
32
Purpose of Calculators
Provide LOCAL data values
Analysis for different years / horizons
Ability to change defaults
• Fuel prices
• Fleet composition – increase in small vehicles?
• Others…
Calculator Main Panel
34
Auto and Commercial Vehicle User
TTV Calculator
Input
• Current year/target year
• Wages (optional)
• Inflation factors (optional)
• TTV segmentations (optional)
Output - Auto and Commercial Vehicle User TTV by
• Geographic level
• Trip type
• Trip purpose
• Vehicle type
• Time of day
35
Auto and Commercial Vehicle User
TTV Calculator
Input page
36
…
Auto and Commercial Vehicle User
TTV Calculator
37
Output page
…
Transit User TTV Calculator
Input
• Current Year/Target Year
• Wages (optional)
• Inflation factors (optional)
• TTV markets
Output - transit user TTV by
• Geographic level
• Transit mode
• Trip type
• Trip purpose
• Waiting and transferring
38
Transit User TTV Calculator
Input page
39
…
Transit User TTV Calculator
40
Output page
Auto and Commercial VOC Calculator
Key Input
• Current fuel price
• Current year / target year
• Average travel speed
Output - annual cost and
per mile cost by
• Cost component
• Total costs
41
Auto and Commercial VOC Calculator
…
Input Page
…
Auto and Commercial VOC Calculator
Back
Back to
to Calculator
Calculator Main
Main Sheet
Sheet
Auto and Commercial Vehicle Annual Operating Cost
Cost Components
(2004 $)
Attributes
Vehicle Class
Geographic Level
Purchase (P) or Lease (L)
Vehicle Age (Years)
Speed (mph)
Proportion of Highway Mileage over Total Milage
Mileage per year
Fuel Cost
Fuel Tax
Maintenance and Repairs
Tires
Insurance
Total Depreciation
Finance Charges
License and Registration
Annual Vehicle Operating Cost by Vehicle Size (2004 Value)
Small
SEFL
FL
P
P
9
9
38
38
40%
40%
12,000
12,000
$801
$801
$211
$198
$259
$259
$117
$117
$1,236
$1,172
$1,534
$1,534
$450
$452
$46
$46
Medium
SEFL
FL
P
P
9
9
38
38
40%
40%
12,000
12,000
$1,048
$1,048
$275
$259
$259
$259
$119
$119
$1,078
$1,020
$1,632
$1,632
$479
$481
$51
$51
Large
SEFL
FL
P
P
9
9
38
38
40%
40%
12,000
12,000
$1,206
$1,206
$317
$298
$324
$324
$151
$151
$1,038
$986
$2,515
$2,515
$739
$741
$61
$61
Single-Unit Truck
SEFL
FL
P
P
5
5
45
45
70%
70%
100,000 100,000
$20,504 $20,504
$5,388
$5,071
$6,364
$6,364
$3,061
$3,061
$1,286
$1,246
$8,601
$8,601
$1,313
$1,317
$62
$62
Combination-Unit
SEFL
FL
P
P
5
5
45
45
80%
80%
100,000 100,000
$27,491 $27,491
$7,224
$6,798
$8,537
$8,537
$3,998
$3,998
$6,466
$6,486
$10,685 $10,685
$3,609
$3,620
$72
$72
$4,655
$4,941
$6,351
$46,579
$46,225
$68,084
$92,774
$92,207
$127,458 $126,824
$0.466
$0.462
$0.681
$0.677
$0.928
$0.922
$1.275
$1.268
$4,580
$4,868
$12,249
Weighted FL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2004 Value)
$9,066
Annual Vehicle Operating Cost by Vehicle Size (2030 Value)
$7,983
$7,864
$8,410
$8,294
$9,337
$9,226
Weighted SEFL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2030 Value)
$21,813
Weighted FL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2030 Value)
$15,615
Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile by Vehicle Size (2004 Value)
$0.388
$0.382
$0.412
$0.406
Weighted SEFL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2004 Value)
$0.529
$0.524
$0.502
$0.665
$0.655
$0.701
$0.691
$0.778
$0.769
Weighted SEFL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2030 Value)
$0.958
Weighted FL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2030 Value)
$0.876
Output Page
$67,689
$0.533
Weighted FL Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile (2004 Value)
Vehicle Operating Cost per Mile by Vehicle Size (2030 Value)
43
$6,282
Weighted SEFL Annual Vehicle Operating Cost (2004 Value)
Transit VOC Calculator
Input Service Data
• Mode
• Route Length
• Weekday Service Schedule
• Weekend Service Schedule
• Update Cost Item (Optional)
Output – Transit Vehicle Operating Cost by:
• Mode
• Total Annual Service (Revenue Miles)
• Total Annual Operating Cost
• Annual Operation Cost per Revenue Mile
44
Transit VOC Calculator
Back
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to Calculator
Calculator Main
Main Sheet
Sheet
Southeast Florida - Equivalent 2004 Values
Operating Expenses
Cost Item
Operators' Wage
Other Salaries & Wages
Fringe Benefits
Services
Fuel and Lube
Materials and
Tires and Other
Supplies
Others
Utilities
Casualty and Liability
Tax
Purchased
In Report
Transportation
Separate Report
Misc Expense
Expense transfer
ADA Related
Total Expense (Thousand)
Total Passenger Trips (Thousand)
Total Revenue Miles (Thousand)
Total Revenue Hours (Thousand)
Cost / Passenger Trip
Cost / Revenue Mile
Cost / Revenue Hour
Bus
$
$
$
$
107,204,627
95,062,476
77,733,582
35,931,192
40,766,150
6,830,588
31,040,346
3,069,389
6,514,890
1,124,541
1,698,729
3,350,662
437,916
129,010.2
57,519.7
4,411.0
3.2
7.1
93.0
Demand
Demand
Response (DO) Response (PT)
1,237,032
1,029,951
2,594,443
704,007
1,194,788
549,691
543,748
459,673
2,145
36,505
50,858
85,722
101,717
387,580
1,883
69,573,796
36,730,063
65,474
27,903
$
4,560 $
110,817
270.5
3,029.4
1,338.0
30,147.6
98.1
2,077.9
$
16.86 $
36.58
$
3.4 $
3.7
$
46.5 $
53.3
Commuter Rail
(CR)
$
$
$
$
Light Rail (LR)
4,717,459
1,572,487
6,160,060
3,628,571
376,870
1,289,680
1,497,406
12,171,648
31,414
2,674.6
2,685.1
77.6
11.7
11.7
404.8
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n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
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n.a.
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$
n.a.
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• By County
• By State
Miami-Dade - Equivalent 2004 Values
Operating Expenses
Cost Item
45
Operators' Wage
Other Salaries & Wages
Fringe Benefits
Services
Fuel and Lube
Materials and
Tires and Other
Supplies
Others
Utilities
Casualty and Liability
Tax
Purchased
In Report
Transportation
Separate Report
Misc Expense
Expense transfer
ADA Related
Total Expense
Total Passenger Trips
Total Revenue Miles
Total Revenue Hours
Cost / Passenger Trip
Cost / Revenue Mile
Cost / Revenue Hour
Bus
75,360,684
68,630,812
51,838,267
27,734,119
27,058,202
5,811,317
24,017,805
2,280,186
3,362,901
1,123,630
2,670,813
$ 309,379,653
82,203,498.0
37,087,056.0
2,970,540.0
$
3.5
$
7.8
$
97.6
Demand
Response (DO)
$
$
$
$
-
Demand
Response (PT)
506,864
133,054
36,730,063
36,730,063
$
74,100,043
1,555,446.0
13,577,421.0
912,920.0
$
47.64
$
5.5
$
81.2
Commuter Rail
$
$
$
$
-
Light Rail
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
• By Region
-
• By Nation
…
Transit VOC Calculator
Input Page
46
Transit VOC Calculator
Bus Vehicle Operating Cost
Back
Back to
to Calculator
Calculator Main
Main Sheet
Sheet
Total Annual Service
(Revenue Miles)
Total Annual Operating Cost
(1,000$)
Unit Operating Cost
($/Revenue Mile)
2008 Value
278,720
$1,677
$6.02
2030 Value
278,720
$2,459
$8.83
Output Page
Reference Data
• Median/Average Wage
• MetroRail Rider Income
• CPI
• Vehicle Depreciation
• Crude Oil Price
• Vehicle Speed vs. Fuel Consumption
• Gasoline Price
• Auto Price
• Vehicle Fleet
Composition
• Transit User Income
• Bus Rider Income
• Tri-Rail Rider Income
48
4. Sample Applications
1. Lane closure cost calculation
• Hypothesis scenario
• Additional cost for roadway users (TTV + VOC) resulted from
lane closure
2. Trip cost comparison for Auto and Transit
• Cost for roadway user (TTV + VOC) and transit user (TTV + fare)
• Downtown Coral Springs to Fort Lauderdale
49
Sample Application 1
Left Lane Closure on I-595 from University Dr. to FTPK
• Conditions
−
−
−
−
−
−
2009, 2 days, 2.2 miles
AADT 227,000
Average occupancy: 1.2 people per vehicle
Average travel speed reduced from 55mph to 35mph
TTV in 2009: $8.16 per hour
VOC at 35mph: $0.471/mile; VOC at 55mph: $0.461/mile
• Costs
− TTV increased : (2.2/35 – 2.2/55)*8.16*227,000*1.2*2 = $101,613
− VOC increased: ($0.471 – $0.461)*2.2*227,000*2 = $9,988
− Total cost = TTV + VOC = $111,601
50
Sample Application 2
Downtown Coral Springs to Fort Lauderdale
Discussion:
• what TTV should be used for the transit alternative?
• Value of Wait time?
Time
Peak
Hour
51
OffPeak
Hour
Vehicle
Dist.
Avg.
Spd.
(mph)
Travel
Time
(mins
)
TTV/
hour
Trip
TTV
VOC/
mi
Trip
VOC
Total
Trip
Cost
Mid-size
Car
25
mph
48
$7.82
$6.26
$0.52
$10.4
0
$16.6
6
Bus
10
mph
120
$5.26
$10.5
2
-
$2.50
fare
$13.0
2
40
mph
30
$7.76
$3.88
$0.45
$9.00
$12.8
8
16
mph
75
$4.02
$5.03
-
$2.50
fare
$7.53
Mid-size
Car
Bus
20
miles
Discussion
52