Keith Burrows AIP Education Committee (Vic) CONASTA July 2009

YES !

In fact they should have a key role!

Keith Burrows AIP Education Committee (Vic) CONASTA July 2009 Be sure to look at the ‘Notes Page’ in PowerPoint for further comments and explanations.

• Would you get on this aeroplane if 1 out of 10 engineers found dangerous cracks in the wings?

• How about if 9 out of 10 engineers said there were dangerous cracks in the wings and 1 said they didn’t matter?

•

That’s about the proportion of scientists saying climate change is dangerous!

•

That’s about the proportion of scientists saying climate change is dangerous!

1 July 2009

Latest news: Sea level rise worse than we thought

“The bad news is that there is a growing consensus that the IPCC estimates are wildly optimistic.” “They found that ice loss is increasing fast. Greenland is now losing about 300 gigatonnes of ice per year, enough to raise sea level by 0.83 mm. Antarctica is losing about 200 gigatonnes per year, almost all of it from West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, raising levels by 0.55 mm.” (0.83 + 0.55 = 1.4 mm/yr, i.e. >1.2 metres by 2100 )

Latest news: Sea level rise worse than we thought

“About 60 million people live within 1 metre of mean sea level, a number expected to grow to about 130 million by 2100.” [Mostly in the nine major river deltas in south and southeast Asia.] In Europe “a 1-metre rise in sea level will affect 13 million people … and destroy property worth $60 billion, with the Netherlands the worst affected.”

“Large parts of the West Antarctic ice sheet are vulnerable to collapse which would add 3 metres to global sea levels”

“Paul Blanchon's team at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Cancun has been studying 121,000 year-old coral reefs in the Yucatan Peninsula, formed during the last interglacial period when sea level peaked at around

6 metres higher than today

. His findings suggest that at one point the sea rose

3 metres within 50 to 100 years

.”

CO 2 e

Latest news: Sea level rise not the only problem!

Latest news: Sea level rise not the only problem!

• A declaration of vested interests!

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Download these presentations from: www.vicphysics.org

Why Science Teachers?

• • • • Climate change is the most significant threat human civilization has ever faced.

In order to appreciate the magnitude of the problem, it must be seen through the lens of science.

A huge public education campaign is needed.

(as distinct from the mis-education campaign prevalent in some parts of the media)

Why Us?

• “These stark conclusions about the threat posed by global climate change and implications for fossil fuel use are not yet appreciated by essential governing bodies … In our view, threats .” there is an acute need for science to inform society about the costs of failure to address global warming , because of a fundamental difference between the threat posed by climate change and most prior global • The conclusion from: Dangerous human-made interference with climate: a GISS modelE study J Hansen et al. Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 7, 2287–2312, 2007

Why Us?

• • • Two crucial points: “...acute need for science to inform society...” “...fundamental difference ... most prior global threats”

• • • • • •

Why Us?

“...acute need for science to inform society...” past scientific debates – limited effect on most people (Nuclear, Acid rain, Ozone hole, GE food…) This time we are asking everyone - EVERYONE ON EARTH - to change the way they do things… …on the basis of a scientific discussion without OBVIOUS evidence. (And some dispute about it.) Never before has the actual science been so important in the debate… …because people need good reasons to change their behaviour – not just scientific ‘say-so’.

Why Us?

• • • • • • “...fundamental difference ... most prior global threats” Unique in human history… Threat of war could be seen – (even if often ignored until too late).

Once climate change is obvious it will be MUCH TOO LATE...

and the consequences catastrophic.

And again, it is only understandable in scientific terms .

Why Us?

• • • Dealing with climate change will require massive adjustments to the way we do things.

Most of these adjustments are based on science, so... people need to understand at least some basic scientific concepts: – energy – radiation – scientific method

Why Us?

• Climate scientists are generally: • • • Too busy doing their science.

Not necessarily good at communicating with the lay public.

Trying to talk to politicians.

Why Us?

Why Us?

If we don’t do it, who else will?

Why Us?

• Other groups do talk about climate change: • The media – but usually trying to make a ‘debate’ out of it.

Herald Sun 19 Dec 2008

Herald Sun a few days after Bolt’s article.

5 out of 6 support Bolt’s denier-ism

• • • • • • “Satellite data indicates the southern hemisphere has recorded no warming” “When will the biggest scientific fraud in history fall apart?” “The [CPRS] is a non-solution to a non-problem” (Bob Carter) “In the last Ice Age the CO 2 levels were 4000 ppm” “heat travels from hot to cold so the colder CO 2 the surface below” cannot warm “The telling thing about the global warming faith is that it’s preached almost entirely by hypocrites” (AB)

‘Good’ articles are also published - but often hidden away in the ‘comment and debate’ section

But the ‘sceptics’ always seem to get a pretty good airing – because that’s what people want to hear.

And because his one vote could be vital to our future!

End of part 1. Go to CCConasta09e-2.ppt