Transcript A Revitalized Efficiency Perspective: The Intersection of

A Revitalized Efficiency Perspective:
The Intersection of Behavior, Technology, and
the Underserved Community
John A. “Skip” Laitner
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE)
Increasing Energy Efficiency Through Collaborative Strategies
2012 NASCSP Annual Conference and
2012 DOE Weatherization Assistance Program
State Managers’ Meeting
September 12, 2012
Buckhead - Atlanta, GA
A Working Hypothesis in the Global Economy
The complete economic recovery and
robust development of our long-term global
prosperity will not be possible without hefty
increases in productive investment and
greater levels of resource and energy
efficiency – all enabled by a shift in our
behaviors, our social institutions and our
culture. Neither the market nor the public
can get it done on their own. Only through a
process of greater collaboration will we have
the possibility of returning to prosperity.
And as we are
reminded by my
favorite American
philosopher,
Gary Larson,
small differences
in assumptions
can lead to very
big differences in
outcomes!!
With Apologies to Gary Larson. . . .
If we do make
the wrong
assumptions,
and if we don’t
get it right, we
may have this. . .
A smart ass
cactus
speaking to us
on behalf of
Mother Nature
Herself!
With These Opening Observations
 The past is consistent with many, many different futures
– depending on the choices we have yet to make.
 New research suggests the U.S. now converts only
~14% of all the energy it consumes into useful work, or
into transforming matter into the goods and services
needed to maintain our economy (Laitner 2012).
 In short, we waste 86% of all energy used to power our
economy, and that magnitude of waste imposes a huge
array of costs that constrains our larger well-being.
 If we are to ensure a robust and prosperous economy,
we need to triple and quadruple our current level of
energy efficiency.
Jumping to the End of the Story
 The recent ACEEE report, “The Long-Term Energy


Efficiency Potential: What the Evidence Suggests,” shows
how slashing energy use by 40 to 60% — through highly
cost-effective efficiency investments — could generate up
to 2 million jobs while saving residential and business
consumers about $2,600 per household annually.
The really big insight? Instead of tiny increments, the U.S.
will be better off “Thinking Big” about energy efficiency and
energy productivity, rather than relying on the usual set of
very costly and conventional energy resources.
The other critical insight? All of the members of our
underserved communities absolutely need to be a part of
the solution; or our combined efforts will fall short. . . .
Source: The Long-Term Energy Efficiency Potential: What the Evidence Suggests (2012).
Washington, DC: ACEEE. http://www.aceee.org/press/2012/01/aceee-report-us-better-thinking-big-
Disintermediation at Work
From Wikipedia: In economics, disintermediation is
the removal of intermediaries in a supply chain, or
"cutting out the middleman". Instead of going through
traditional distribution channels, which had some
type of intermediate (such as a distributor,
wholesaler, broker, or agent), companies may now
deal with every customer directly, for example via the
Internet. One important factor is a drop in the cost of
servicing customers directly.
Comparing Different Outcomes
Comparing Electricity Sales and Mail Delivery
Index (1990 = 1.00)
1.50
1.40
U.S. Electricity Sales
1.30
1.20
U.S. Postal Service Mail Volume
1.10
What if we substitute the word “kilowatt-hours”
for “pieces of mail” as we examine the future?
1.00
0.90
0.80
1990
1995
2000
Source: US Energy Information Administration and US Postal Service.
2005
2010
Comparing Different Outcomes
Comparing Electricity Sales and Record Sales
2.40
U.S. Electricity Sales
Index (1973 = 1.00)
2.20
Napster Begins
2.00
Records Sold Per Person
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
What if we substitute the word “kilowatthours” for “records sold per person”?
1.00
0.80
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
Source: US Energy Information Administration and Data on Record Sales Per Person.
2008
Comparing Different Outcomes
Comparing Electricity Sales and Local Phone Calls
1.80
U.S. Electricity Sales
Index (1984 = 1.00)
More than 100 Million Cell Phones
1.60
1.40
Local Calls Originating
1.20
What if we substitute the word
“kilowatt-hours” for “local calls”?
1.00
0.80
0.60
1984
1989
1994
1999
2004
Source: US Energy Information Administration and Data on Local Calls from U.S. Statistical Abstract.
Shifting Perceptions and Use Patterns
 An October 2011 national poll of 3,400 consumers


conducted by the University of Texas at Austin
revealed deep discontent among U.S. consumers
over the direction the country is headed on energy.
Oncor, CenterPoint Energy, IBM, Landis+Gyr, Itron,
GE, San Diego Gas & Electric, and Tendril are
founding partners of the Biggest Energy Saver
Campaign – an online community to explore ways
that might engage customers to learn how smart
technology can help reduce their electricity bill.
Across all participants, the average savings was just
under 8%. The top 10% of the participants achieved a
whopping 26% savings.
Shifting Perceptions and Use Patterns
 Verizon announced home monitoring and control service



that enables customers to remotely check on their
homes, lights, thermostats, appliances and energy use.
A study released by Brattle Group economists and
energy analysts reveals energy efficiency improvements
could lower U.S. electricity consumption by 5-15%. . . .
In short, utilities can no longer bank on ever-growing
demand; a major shift is under way and an increasing
number of businesses are finding ways to profit when
people use less power.
The new market will be in providing not the commodity
we call energy, but value-added energy services.
Energy Efficiency:
Making the Invisible Visible
While the imperative and scale of the energy
efficiency resource remains large, we might
begin, first, by exploring possibilities through
feedback mechanisms in our nation’s
households, and especially in our
underserved communities. . . .
Residential Feedback Approaches
Average Household Electricity Savings (4-12%)
by Feedback Type*
Ehrhardt-Martinez, K., Donnelly, K.A., and Laitner, J.A. 2010
A meta-review of 57 different feedback programs
12.0%
Annual Percent Savings
9.2%
8.4%
6.8%
3.8%
Enhanced
Billing
Householdspecific info,
advice
Estimated
Feedback
Web-based
energy audits
with info on
ongoing basis
Daily/
Weekly
Feedback
Householdspecific info,
advise on
daily or
weekly basis
“Indirect” Feedback
(Provided after Consumption Occurs)
Real-Time
Feedback
Real-time
premise level
info
Real-Time
Plus
Feedback
Real-time info
down to the
appliance level
“Direct” Feedback
(Provided Real Time)
Potential
Resource
Savings:
20 to 35%
Real-Time Plus
Feedback w/
Smart Program
Design
Plus Application of
Smart Social
Science Insights
Strategies to Catalyze Behaviors?
Let’s Look to the TIME Model*
• Targeting: scale, people, and actions
• Informing: consumers, producers, policies, and
programs
• Motivating: norms, networks, goals and
commitments
• Empowering: dissolution of the financial and
structural barriers to provide and enable
significantly better services and choices
*Source: Adapted from Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez
Empowering: Removing Barriers to
Provide and Enable Better Choices
The Example of Choice Architecture
̶ Choice architecture is about creating a context in
which people are likely to make better decisions –
decision that will make the choosers much better off,
as judged by themselves. (Thaler and Sunstein
2008)
̶ Overcoming inertia and the status quo bias
̶ Hence, the BECC Low-Carbon Lunch Experiment *
undertaken by Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez in 2009
* BECC is the Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change Conference (see
www.BECCConference.org), this year taking place November 12-14,
2012 in Sacramento, CA.
The 2009 BECC Low-Carbon Lunch
(a conference new default)
ACEEE
Conference
Standard
BECC
2007
BECC
2009
Meat-Based Lunch
90-95%
83%
20%
Vegetarian Lunch
5-10%
17%
80%
 Meat production is responsible for 18% of the global greenhouse
gas emissions (Pew Commission 2008)
 Omnivores contribute 7 times the GHG emissions than vegans
Hence, a Large Indirect Savings
The Key Take-Aways
 The energy efficiency resource is larger and more



necessary to develop than is generally understood
Engaging, empowering and motivating consumers,
especially among underserved communities, is a
critical first step in building large-scale savings.
For deep, and lasting change, a layered approach to
changing behavior is important – using multiple
methods and means of reaching people, as individuals,
but also as family members, neighbors, or co-workers!
The new utility business model shifts from the sale of
commodities to providing value-added services, and
does so in ways that save ratepayers money and
generate positive returns for investors.
For further information and citations to
the resources and references cited:
John A. “Skip” Laitner
c: (571) 332-9434
email: [email protected]
See our eBook on the behavior resource:
Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez and John A. “Skip” Laitner, Editors
People-Centered Initiatives for Increasing Energy Savings
Washington, DC: American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy
www.aceee.org/node/9275
See also my Desert Year Blog:
$3 Trillion Thought Experiment for Rio+20
http://www.realclimateeconomics.org/wp/archives/1302