Transcript Slide 1

The Humber Labour Market
by the Regional Economic Intelligence Unit, Leeds
City Council
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Context
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This report was commissioned by the Humber LEP
It aims to provide an up-to-date insights regarding the labour
market.
The report assesses the demand and supply side challenges
facing the labour market using a range of indicators.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Global headlines..
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China – the official Chinese PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) of Manufacturing showed a reading of
50.4 in November (down from 50.9 in October). This was the first fall in 4 months, prompting the
Hang Seng Index to fall from its 10 month high. The 0.5 point fall was attributed to weak new export
orders and slow pace of restocking activities. More recent industrial production and retail sales figures
suggest that Chinese domestic consumption remains robust.
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Euro-zone – core economic data and the regions PMI still show signs of slow recovery for the Eurozone. Composite PMI hit a 3 month low at 51.5 in November (51.9 in October). There is still a great deal
noise in Euro-zone leading indicators with October industrial production figures in Germany
contrasting with leading indicators – the German government reported that industrial production fell
by 1.2% in October.
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US economy – US GDP grew at 2.8% in Q3 with growth set top 3% in Q4 fuelled by string consumer
spending into the final quarter.
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Japanese economy – October showed a strong recovery for the Japanese economy with both
manufacturing and service sectors posting strong figures. Manufacturing PMI saw a rise to 54.2
(September 52.5) aided by the fastest growth in output in 46 months and a 4 year high in new orders.
More recent official data saw downgrading in Q3 growth to 1.1% (from 1.9%) as the government
revised down business investment and inventories contribution to GDP.
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Emerging markets - The emerging markets PMI signalled the strongest rise in output in seven
months in October, rising to 51.7. Manufacturing and Services also registered stronger rates of expansion
in October with six and seven month highs respectively. Russia and Brazil posted sharp increases in
activity, but India again showed a decline for the fourth consecutive month.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Key global markets growth
forecasts…
Source: OECD WEO, November 2013
BES in US confirmed that US economy grew at 2.8% in Q3 2014 – OECD estimate is very accurate
Reflection of US growth, the view going forward is that US growth will top 3% in Q4 2014 softening
Into 2014 (as US consumer so pending slows).
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Developed economies…..drivers of
growth
Source: OECD WEO, November 2013
OBR’s view of growth following Autumn
statement more consistent with OECD
Estimates, UK growth accelerates in 2014 and
2015.
OECD has warned about overheating in UK
property market given UK’s reliance
on domestic consumption.
Forecast
2013
2014
2015
OBR
OECD
1.4%
1.4%
2.4%
2.4%
2.2%
2.5%
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Global business confidence…..
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Global business confidence picked up slightly in October – Euro-zone concerns still weigh on
sentiment in the emerging markets.
German industrial production dropped unexpectedly in October (falling by 1.2%) – this may weigh
on the global composite index as we enter November.
Chinese contribution to overall global business activity levels remains strong with most analysts believing
China will post growth of 7.8% in Q4 in part based on official data showing 10% growth in industrial
production and 13% growth in retail sales (in November).
Going into the year end US consumers remain in upbeat mood with Fed data pointing to significant
increase in consumer credit to fund car purchases.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
UK macro overview
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Key headlines…..
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Labour Market Update – the ILO employment rate rose to 71.8% in the quarter to
September (up 0.3% from the from the April-June quarter). The employment rate is now
0.4 percentage points (pp.) higher than the same time last year – the number of
people now in employment was estimated at 29, 950,000 in quarter to September (up by
177,000 in the quarter).
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Unemployment – the headline ILO rate now stands stand at 7.6% having fallen
0.2pp from the previous quarter. The national claimant rate fell to 3.9% in October,
falling by 0.1pp in the month and 0.8pp in the year (some 266,500 fewer claimants in
the year).
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The Consumer Price Index – inflation in October fell to 2.2% compared to
Septembers 2.7%, the lowest level since September 2012. The largest contributor to the
reduction was the fall in transport costs which was the largest drop since July 2009. Fuel
prices played the largest part of this decrease, with many supermarkets engaged in a fuel
price war.
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GDP – ONS confirmed that the UK economy grew by 0.8% in in the third quarter,
following the release of the 2nd estimate of GDP. The new data confirmed that all
major parts of the economy contributed positively to GDP – encouragingly manufacturing
output grew by 0.9% in Q3 outperforming the services sector which grew by 0.7%.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
More headlines……
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October saw the Bank of England MPC voting to holding UK interest rates at 0.5% whilst maintaining the
existing quantitative easing programme set at £375bn. The BoE again reiterated its plan to hold the
interest rate until unemployment reached 7%. However the forecasted date for this has now been revised
from the end of 2016, to the end of 2014.
Mortgage lending figures showed that in October there were a total of 42,808 loans approved by lenders,
little changed on the September figures. Mortgage lending is still 33% higher than 12 months ago,
due to a number of months showing strong growth in lending figures. The British Bankers Association
suggests this could be due to increased caution by lenders after an initial rise in lending.
ONS house price index dropped slightly in September to 184.9 from 186 (in August). With seasonal
adjustment this equates to stagnation in national house prices between September and August.
However ONS did report that house prices are currently at their highest level since record began in 1968.
Public finances improved further in October as the recovering economy and housing market began to boost
tax revenues. Net monthly borrowing fell in October to a figure of £8.08bn, down from a figure of £8.24bn
a year ago. National debt rose to a total of £1.207tn putting the figure at 75.4% of national GDP.
UK retail sales fell again in October by 0.7%, following a 0.7% fall in September. This was largely
unexpected, with many forecasters expecting an unchanged level of sales. Retail sales are still 1.8%
higher than a year ago. Clothing sales were down 2.8%, linked to mild weather conditions putting off
many consumers updating the winter wardrobe. The retail sector represents 5% of the UK economy with
consumers spending an average of £6.9bn a week.
The UK total trade deficit was £2.6 billion in October (unchanged from the month prior) following
- the deficit on trade in goods was £9.7 billion. The surplus on trade in services was estimated at £7.1
billion in the month.
New industrial production data by ONS (for October) reported that both production and manufacturing
output rose by 0.4% in the month, although mostly as result of domestic demand drivers.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Yorkshire and Humber overview…..
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Yorkshire and Humber headlines…..
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The Yorkshire and Humber economy will grow by up 0.5% this year, with growth accelerating into
2014 (we estimate 2014 growth at up to 1.2%).
Growth levels in Yorkshire trail the UK average and are somewhat lower in our forecasts than those in
London, South East and the East of England (and lower than the North West).
Employment growth softened this year compared to 2012, but will pick up in 2014 and 2015.
The Yorkshire and Humber headline PMI index softened in November to 56.9 from the high point of
59.0 seen in October (down from September high point).
The strong growth seen order books in September and October eased in November as the incoming new
order index eased to 61.1 (although the rate of expansion still remains very robust – manufacturers
reported the strongest growth in new orders).
The headline ILO unemployment rate remained unchanged in the quarter to September at 9.1% (the
rate was 0.1pp lower in the quarter). The rate has hovered in a narrow band throughout 2013 despite
strong employment growth, in part reflecting the increase in labour market entrants in the year to
September (some 43,000).
The current headline employment rate in Yorkshire and Humber is estimated at 70.8%, having risen by
0.6pp in the quarter (and by 1pp in the year). Some 33,000 more people were in employment in
the quarter and some 53,000 in the year to September.
ONS Claimant Count showed that there was a further fall in October. Claimant rate fell from 5.3% in
September to 5.2%. This shadowed a 0.1pp fall in UK claimant rate from 4.0% to 3.9% in the same
period.
The Y50 index shows that regions top public quoted businesses slightly underperformed the main bourses
in the last three months, although with very strong performance from companies in North Yorkshire.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Yorkshire growth in a national context….
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Wes estimate that Yorkshire and the Humber’s economy grew by grew by 0.35% in 2012.
We are forecasting that regional economy will grow by between 0.3% to 0.5% in 2013.
In 2013 we expect London and the South East to grow most rapidly – with London growing by between
1.2% to 1.5% and the South East growing by between 1.0% and 1.2%.
Outside London and the South East the North West, the East of England and the East Midlands will post
the highest rates of growth.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Regional employment growth…
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Yorkshire employment growth has fared better (compared to output growth) – with employment growing
strongly in 2012 (around 2%), although softening appreciably into 2013 and 2014.
The more robust employment compared to output clearly points falling productivity performance.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Key sectors driving regional growth
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The single largest part of the regional economy is the public sector (health, education and administration)
which accounts for 23.6% of Yorkshires output, although going forward this share is set to fall to 22.9%
by 2015.
Key sectors likely to very well over next couple of years include professional and business services and
wholesale and retail which increase their share of regional output (by 1%) whilst also growing in real
terms by 5.1% and 5.6% (respectively).
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Regional business sentiment…..
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The pace of overall activity softened significantly in November – falling to 56.9 in month (from 50.0 the month prior).
The pace of regional output expansion still remains high by recent historical standards – although the transmission to employer
hiring has lagged.
Manufacturers have reported activity picked in November (due in the main to new domestic orders) whilst service companies
reported activity eased slightly.
Yorkshire’s strong
growth in business
activity softened
slightly into
November. Business
sentiment is still
very robust
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Employer hiring sentiment……
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The publication of the November Yorkshire and Humber PMI Employment suggests employment growth
softened into November, with index falling to 51.
The pace of growth remains below that nationally – at 54.3 in November.
London and SE have
seen very significant
expansion
in
employer hiring in
the past 2 months
The pace of employer hiring
remained
unchanged
in
October following strong
growth in September
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Household income and costs…
…that said overall cost of living increases will amongst the
lowest in Yorkshire compared to other Regions
(some 6.23% between 2013 and 2015)
The gap between household spending and
disposable income is set to narrow over the next
couple of years – from £2.2 billion in 2011 to
£456 million in 2015.
Households will save less as overall income
growth remains constrained
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
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Y50 Index…..
Yorkshire 50 experienced strong growth since August 2012, but in the past two months has suffered a 3pp
fall.
Major contributors of growth came from the 600 Group (19%), Proactis (16%) and the Redhall Group
(14%).
The greatest fall in stock price came from CCP Group falling -76%.
NY10 continues
strong growth,
followed by the FTSE
250 and Y50
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
The Y50 showed low
level contraction this
month
Humber
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Summary Economic data…… (1)
2003
2013
%
% Change
Change
in UK
Total Output (GVA) (£bn CVM 2010 prices)
14
15
4%
11%
415
430
4%
6%
539
568
5%
7%
888
933
5%
7%
12
12
3%
10%
11
12
9%
10%
Workforce jobs (Thousands)
Working age population (Thousands)
Total population (Thousands)
Household disposable Income (£bn CVM 2010 prices)
Household spending (£bn CVM 2010 prices)
Source: Regional Planning Service, Experian 2013
▪
▪
The Humber economy grew by 4% over the last decade. The number of jobs in the economy
also grew by 4%. Both indicators underperformed the England average.
Population, income and spending all grew strongly but could not match the national average.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Summary Economic data (forecast)… (2)
2012
Total Output (GVA) (£mn CVM
2009 prices)
Workforce jobs (Thousands)
Working age population
(Thousands)
Total population (Thousands)
Household disposable Income
(£mn CVM 2009 prices)
Household spending (£mn CVM
2009 prices)
2022
% Change
% Change in UK
15
17
17%
26%
430
443
3%
8%
568
596
5%
8%
934
975
4%
7%
12
14
16%
22%
12
14
19%
26%
Source: Regional Planning Service, Experian 2013
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Over the next decade, the local economy is forecast to grow relatively strongly but still lag
the national average across all the key indicators shown in the table above.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Economic Activity in the Humber
June 2013
Number
12 month change
%
Number
%
England %
Economic Activity
Economic activity rate - aged 16-64
451,500
77.1
0
0.2
0.8
Employment rate - aged 16-64
404,400
69.1
-1,400
0.0
0.9
47,100
10.4
1,500
0.3
-0.2
133,800
22.9
-2,000
-0.2
-0.8
28,800
21.5
1,500
1.4
0.4
105,100
78.5
-3,400
-1.4
-0.5
Unemployment rate - aged 16-64
Economic Inactivity
% who are economically inactive - aged 16-64
% of economically inactive who want a job
% of economically inactive who do not want a job
Source: Annual population Survey, NOMIS, ONS
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The economic activity rate remained virtually unchanged in the Humber over the 12 month
period to June 2013, compared to a 0.8% increase in England.
The number of unemployed fell by 1,400 people but the rate remained unchanged in the
Humber.
Economic inactivity levels fell marginally in the LEP area.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Employment and Specialisation by Sector in the Humber
Broad Sector
Manufacturing
Health
Retail
Education
Business administration & support services
Public administration & defence
Transport & storage (inc postal)
Accommodation & food services
Construction
Professional, scientific & technical
Arts, entertainment, recreation & other services
Wholesale
Motor trades
Information & communication
Mining, quarrying & utilities
Property
Financial & insurance
Agriculture, forestry & fishing*
 * These figures exclude farm agriculture (SIC subclass 01000).
Employment
LQ
% share
56,500
55,100
38,900
33,800
1.9
1.2
1.1
1.0
16%
15%
11%
9%
24,600
23,100
21,700
20,100
19,500
15,900
0.8
1.4
1.3
0.8
1.2
0.6
7%
6%
6%
6%
5%
4%
13,500
13,000
7,200
6,000
4,500
3,600
3,600
900
0.8
0.9
1.1
0.4
1.1
0.5
0.3
0.2
4%
4%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
0%
Source: BRES via NOMIS.
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Manufacturing, health and retail are the biggest employers in the Humber
The area has key specialisms in manufacturing and is thus over-represented in that sector
compared to the rest of England.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Employment and Specialisation by
Sector in Humber
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According the Business Register and Employment (BRES) survey conducted by
ONS, the manufacturing sector is the largest in the Humber in employment
terms. It employs over 56,000 people, representing 16% of the workforce.
Health, retail and education also remain very significant, employing 15%, 11%
and 9% of the workforce respectively.
The Location Quotient technique allows economists to show the extent of
specialisation within a given sector or economy. A score higher than 1 denotes
a higher degree of specialisation compared to the reference economy, in this
case, the UK total.
Using this technique it is clear that the Humber economy has strong
specialisation in manufacturing, wholesale, motor trades but also in retail,
education and construction, albeit to a lesser degree. In manufacturing,
Humber has twice and national average of employment, given the size of its
workforce.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Top 10 sectors in the Humber ranked by
specialisation
Employment
Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products
LQ
Fishing and aquaculture
1,500
300
11.2
6.2
Manufacture of basic metals
4,200
5.1
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products
5,100
3.9
Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture
of articles of straw and plaiting materials
2,600
3.2
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations
1,700
3.2
12,500
500
2.9
2.7
1,600
2,400
2.4
2.2
Manufacture of food products
Water transport
Manufacture of paper and paper products
Manufacture of furniture
Source: BRES via NOMIS.
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The Humber economy has 11 times the national employment in the manufacture of coke and
refined petroleum products, relative to its economy. This points to incredibly high levels of
specialisation within this sector.
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High levels of specialisation also exists in other manufacturing sub-sectors like basic metals,
chemicals, wood, pharmaceuticals, food products and water transport.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Forecast change in population in the
Humber, 2011-2021
300,000
250,000
200,000
0-10
150,000
11-20
over 60
100,000
50,000
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Source: ONS Sub-national Population Projections
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The 0-10 population in the Humber is projected to grow by 8% over the next decade. This is half the
England growth rate.
In absolute terms, the 0-10 year group is projected to grow by almost 9,000.
The 11-20 year group is projected to shrink by 7%, equivalent to over 7,000 people. In England this year
group is forecast to shrink by 3%.
The over 60 group is projected to increase by 17% in the Humber, similar to the England average (18%).
This is the equivalent of 38,000 people in the Humber.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Qualifications of the Economically Active (16-64)
Population in the Humber (%), 2010-2012
35
30
28 28
29
25
20
18 18
19
20
18
19
2010
15 15
15
2011
13
10
2012
8
8
8
5
0
NVQ4+
NVQ3 only
NVQ2 only
NVQ1 only
No qualifications
Source: Annual Population survey, NOMIS, 2013
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The proportion of the Humber population with NVQ4 or equivalent, rose slightly to 29% in 2012. This
represents an increase of 5,300 people.
In general, the proportion with no or NVQ1 qualifications has fallen, whilst those with NVQ2, NVQ3 and
NVQ4+ has risen.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Comparing qualification levels in the Humber
with and England, 2012
45
38
40
35
30
29
25
19
20
18
19
Humber
England
17
13
15
12
10
8
6
5
0
NVQ4+
NVQ3 only
NVQ2 only
NVQ1 only
No qualifications
Source: ONS/NOMIS, 2013
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Compared to England, the Humber has a much lower proportion of highly skilled residents.
The sub region is over represented in terms of low skills and under represented with regards to high skills.
The high skills gap with England has actually increased in recent years. In 2010 the gap was 7.6% but by
2012 this had risen to 9.2%.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Comparing NVQ4+ qualifications levels in the Humber with
other Yorkshire LEP areas and England
% of economically active with nvq4+ - aged 16-64
45
40
39
38
York, North Yorkshire and
East Riding
England
35
35
30
32
29
25
20
15
10
5
0
Humber
Sheffield City Region
Leeds City Region
Source: ONS/NOMIS, 2013
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It is clear from the graph above that the Humber has the lowest proportion of highly skilled residents when
compared to the other Yorkshire LEPs.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Youth Unemployment in the Humber
40.0
34.8
35.0
30.0
28.3
25.0
23.0
20.8
21.2
20.0
18.3
Humber %
England %
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
Total aged 16-24
males - aged 16-24
females - aged 16-24
Source: ONS/NOMIS, 2013
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The youth unemployment rate in the Humber was 28% as at June 2013. This was much higher than the
England average of 21%.
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More than one-third of male 16-24 year olds are unemployed in the Humber compared to 23% nationally.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
16-18 year old NEETs in the Humber (%)
12.0%
10.3%
10.0%
8.0%
7.0%
6.3%
5.7%
6.0%
3.9%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
YORKS & THE HUMBER
East Riding
North Lincolnshire
North East Lincolnshire
Kingston upon Hull
Source: The Department For Education, 2013
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Despite recent falls, the NEET rate in Hull is still very high. By the end of 2012, it was 6.3%, 4 percentage
points above the regional average.
East riding on the other hand recorded, a NEET rate of only 3.9%, matching North Yorkshire as the lowest
rate in Yorkshire.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
5+ A*-C grades including English &
Mathematics GCSEs (%)
2005
East Riding of Yorkshire
Kingston Upon Hull
North East Lincolnshire
North Lincolnshire
England
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
49.5
49.8
50.8
52.5
52.3
58.6
55.4
57.4
26.6
25.9
30
29.6
36.9
42.3
46.3
47.8
31.6
35.4
39
39.7
45.7
54.2
54.2
61.1
37.7
38.5
40.9
41.6
45.4
51.5
52.4
56.3
44.7
45.6
46.3
47.6
49.8
53.5
58.9
59.4
Source: Department for Education
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Of the four districts in the Humber LEP area, only NE Lincs achieved higher than national average results
in 2012.
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Achievement in Hull is almost 12 percentage points below the England average even though the district
has improved consistently over the last few years.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
HE Enrolment in the Humber
Subject area
Mathematical sciences
Mass communications & documentation
Medicine & dentistry
Engineering & technology
Computer science
Law
Creative arts & design
Historical & philosophical studies
Physical sciences
Languages
Biological sciences
Social studies
Subjects allied to medicine
Education
Business & administrative studies
Combined
Total
2011/12
4
103
478
583
636
744
940
1,028
1,126
1,552
1,895
2,130
2,206
2,225
3,539
4,125
23,314
Source: HESA
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
2010/11
10
113
460
577
664
815
974
964
1,053
1,365
1,906
2,079
2,199
2,311
3,550
4,282
23,321
Forecast Change in LCR Skills Profile,
2010-2020
QCF8 Doctorate
25.0
No Qualification
20.0
QCF7 Other higher
degree
15.0
10.0
QCF1 GCSE(below
grade C) & equivalent
5.0
1990
QCF6 First degree
2000
2010
0.0
2015
QCF2 GCSE(A-C) &
equivalent
QCF3 A level &
equivalent
QCF5 Foundation
degree;Nursing;Teac
hing
2020
QCF4 HE below
degree level
Source: UKCES Working Futures Series
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According to the Working Futures Series, published by the UK Commission for Employment and Skills, the
Skills profile of the Humber will change significantly by 2020.
The proportion of people with no or low skills is forecast to reduce whilst those with higher skills are
forecast to increase.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Changing Occupation profile in the
Humber, 2010-2020
Elementary occupations
Process, plant and machine
operatives
Managers, directors and
senior officials
20.0
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Professional occupations
Associate professional and
technical
1990
2000
2010
2015
2020
Sales and customer service
Caring, leisure and other
service
Administrative and
secretarial
Skilled trades occupations
Source: UKCES Working Futures Series
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The occupational profile is also projected to change significantly over the next decade.
Higher skill occupation are forecast to grow at the expense of low skill roles.
High contact occupations like sales and caring are also forecast to grow.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
GVA by Sector, 2012 - 2016
Sector
2013
Real Estate
Education
310
12%
1,062
1% Construction of Buildings
285
7%
4% Finance
258
1%
244
2%
Retail
965
Wholesale
948
Administrative & Supportive Services
Public Administration & Defence
2013
1,186
995
Food, Drink & Tobacco
20132017 %
Change
5% Non-Metallic Products
Health
Land Transport, Storage & Post
20132017 %
Change Sector
9% Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
10% Other Manufacturing
231
9%
860
4% Recreation
194
10%
729
5% Other Private Services
176
-1%
713
10% Civil Engineering
171
30%
683
2% Machinery & Equipment
135
4%
Utilities
539
5% Wood & Paper
133
0%
Professional Services
487
105
8%
Metal Products
473
9% Computing & Information Services
4% Telecoms
94
4%
460
9% Computer & Electronic Products
93
14%
75
2%
64
4%
37
8%
19
-37%
5
8%
3
2%
Transport Equipment
Fuel Refining
434
Specialised Construction Activities
395
Residential Care & Social Work
360
Pharmaceuticals
357
Accommodation & Food Services
Chemicals
-9% Media Activities
9% Printing and Recorded Media
2% Air & Water Transport
11% Textiles & Clothing
346
6% Insurance & Pensions
317
1%
Extraction & Mining
Source: Regional Planning Service, Experian 2014

In GVA terms Real estate, Education and Health are the largest sectors in the Humber economy. Only three
of the 38 sectors are forecast to shrink over the medium term.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
FTE Employment in the Humber, by Sector
Sector
Retail
Land Transport, Storage & Post
Education
Health
20132017 %
2013
Change Sector
30,740
5% Other Private Services
27,430
2% Construction of Buildings
2013
20132017 %
Change
4,040
2%
3,970
7%
26,980
0% Finance
3,390
6%
25,060
2% Real Estate
2,880
13%
2,850
15%
2,740
-6%
2,620
6%
2,260
-10%
Administrative & Supportive Services
23,580
Wholesale
22,750
Public Administration & Defence
21,020
Residential Care & Social Work
18,730
Accommodation & Food Services
15,740
5% Machinery & Equipment
7% Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
2,170
1%
14,990
3% Fuel Refining
1,840
-7%
13,510
2% Pharmaceuticals
Professional Services
Food, Drink & Tobacco
Specialised Construction Activities
Metal Products
Transport Equipment
1,370
-3%
12,680
1,340
-1%
11,660
-3% Computer & Electronic Products
1,280
-4%
1,060
2%
6,540
Recreation
Other Manufacturing
Utilities
Chemicals
6% Wood & Paper
-10% Computing & Information Services
15% Printing and Recorded Media
6,580
Non-Metallic Products
10% Civil Engineering
1% Telecoms
-5% Extraction & Mining
880
-7%
5,490
8% Media Activities
510
12%
4,840
2% Textiles & Clothing
450
-42%
4,260
4% Air & Water Transport
350
9%
4,070
-10% Insurance & Pensions
20
0%
Source: Regional Planning Service, Experian 2013


In FTE employment terms, Retail, land transport, storage and post and health are the largest sectors in
the Humber.
12 of the 38 sectors shown above are forecast to shrink significantly over the medium term.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Sectors Forecast to Expand in FTE terms, 20122016
Sector
Administrative & Supportive Services
Specialised Construction Activities
Wholesale
Retail
Accommodation & Food Services
Residential Care & Social Work
Land Transport, Storage & Post
Health
Professional Services
Recreation
Civil Engineering
Real Estate
Food, Drink & Tobacco
Construction of Buildings
FTE Growth
2013-2017 Sector
2340 Finance
1940 Computing & Information Services
1410 Utilities
1410 Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
1180 Other Manufacturing
850 Other Private Services
650 Education
610 Media Activities
480 Transport Equipment
460 Air & Water Transport
430 Telecoms
370 Non-Metallic Products
330 Chemicals
270 Public Administration & Defence
FTE Growth
2013-2017
200
170
150
110
90
90
80
60
60
30
20
-350
-390
-2180
Source: Regional Planning Service, Experian



In expansion demand terms, the Humber economy is forecast to create a net 9,700 FTE jobs by the end of
2017.
Administrative & supportive services, specialised construction activities, wholesale and retail are forecast to
create the most new jobs in the medium term.
Public Administration & Defense, chemicals and non-metallic products are forecast to lose the most jobs over
the period.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Total Demand for Labour in the Humber,
2010-2020
5,200
Expansion Demand
Replacement Demand
167,806
Net Demand for Labour
173,006
Source: Working Futures, UKCES


The total demand for labour in any economy is a function of both expansion demand
(sectors/occupations actually growing and thus requiring a greater workforce) and replacement demand
(the need to replace those in the current workforce due to retirements, relocation, incapacitation. Most
analysis and literature focus on expansion demand but replacement demand creates many more
opportunities as the table above shows.
It is worth considering demand for labour alongside population growth. ONS population projections
suggest that the Humber population is forecast to increase by just over 47,000 in the decade to 2021.
this suggests that the Humber could struggle to met the total demand for labour from its own
population unless the economically active population increases dramatically and more residents are
brought into the labour market.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Replacement demand in the Humber, by
Qualifications, 2010-2020
Base year
level
Change
2010 2010
2020
QCF group
Projected
level
Total
requirement
Replacement
Demand
2020
2010 - 2020
QCF 7-8
26,829
19,131
45,960
10,869
30,000
QCF 4-6
86,209
17,792
104,002
34,926
52,718
QCF 3
87,582
-8,023
79,559
35,482
27,459
QCF 2
92,209
6,132
98,341
37,357
43,489
QCF 1
77,856
-8,094
69,762
31,542
23,448
No Qualifications
43,514
-21,738
21,776
17,629
-4,109
414,200
5,200
419,400
167,806
173,006
Total
Source: Working Futures, UKCES, 2012

Even though total employment is forecast to increase by about 5,200, the total requirement for labour is
projected to be over 173,000.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Demand for labour in the Humber, 20102020
Caring personal service occupations
Administrative occupations
Corporate managers and directors
Business and public service associate professionals
Elementary administration and service occupations
Teaching and educational professionals
Sales occupations
Transport and mobile machine drivers and operatives
Business, media and public service professionals
Other managers and proprietors
Health professionals
Skilled construction and building trades
Science, research, engineering and technology…
Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades
Skilled agricultural and related trades
Customer service occupations
Elementary trades and related occupations
Leisure, travel and related personal service…
Culture, media and sports occupations
Secretarial and related occupations
Science, engineering and technology associate…
Health and social care associate professionals
Process, plant and machine operatives
Textiles, printing and other skilled trades
Protective service occupations
-10
-5
0
Net requirement
Replacement demand
Expansion demand
5
10
15
Source: Working Futures, UKCES, 2012
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
20
Occupation Structure in the Humber compared to
England, 2010-2013
25
managers, directors and senior officials
20
20
19
professional occupations
associate prof & tech occupations
15
15
15
14
administrative and secretarial occupations
12
10
10
9
11
10
11
10
skilled trades occupations
9
9
7
6
caring, leisure and other service
occupations
sales and customer service occupations
5
process, plant and machine operatives
0
2010
2013
Humber
2010
2013
elementary occupations
England
Source: ONS/NOMIS, 2013



The Humber is well represented in terms of the proportion of the workforce who are managers, directors
and senior officials.
However, the LEP area is significantly underrepresented in terms of professional occupations.
The proportion of the workforce in elementary occupations has fallen from 14% to 12% over the last four
years, closer to the England average (11%).
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Conclusions…..(1)

Over the last decade, the Humber economy lagged the national average in terms of GVA, job creation and
population growth.

The Humber economy has strong specialisation in manufacturing, health, retail and construction. In
manufacturing, the sub-region has twice and national average of employment, given the size of its
workforce.

The percentage of the economically active in the Humber who are unemployed but want a job increased
by 1.4% over the last 12 months compared to 0.4% in England as a whole. This is positive, provided
enough jobs are created to satisfy this demand.

The manufacturing sector is the largest employer in the Humber with 16% of the workforce. Financial
services and insurance and professional, scientific and technical services are significantly underrepresented in the sub-region.

The sub-sectors with the highest specialisation in the Humber are Manufacture of coke and refined
petroleum products (with 11 times the national average employment), Fishing and aquaculture (6 times
the national average), Manufacture of basic metals (5 times the national average) and Manufacture of
chemicals and chemical products (with 4 times the national average).

In the last few years, the proportion of the Humber population with high skills has risen whiles the
proportion with low or no skills has fallen. This is positive news. However the rate of improvement lags the
national average and that of other LEP areas in Yorkshire.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Conclusions…..(2)

Projections from UKCES suggest that the proportion of low skills workers in the Humber will fall over the
next decade whiles the proportion of high skilled people rises.

The Humber economy is forecast to create a net 9,700 FTE jobs by the end of 2017, mainly from
Administrative & supportive services, specialised construction activities, wholesale and retail.

According to the Working Futures Series published by UKCES, the Humber economy will create 168,000
job opportunities in the period to 2020 due to replacement demand. This is vital for the Humber economy
as it ensures that employment opportunities will be available as long as there are people with the
requisite skills. However, given that the sub-region’s projected population growth rate is below average, it
is possible that increased in-migration might be needed to fill these positions unless the economically
active population increases dramatically over the next decade.

By the end of 2012, the NEET rate in Hull was 10% compared to 4% in East Riding and 6% in Yorkshire
and Humber a whole. Such relatively high NEET levels, have bedeviled Hull for many years although the
recent economic downturn has exacerbated it.
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)
Produced by
The Regional
Economic
Intelligence Unit
at Leeds City Council
REIU (Regional Economic Intelligence Unit)