Transcript Client TITLE

North East Lincolnshire
Employment Land Study
Reefer Conference
30 March 2007
CONTENTS
 The study brief
 Context
– Policy
– The economy
 Employment land futures
– Demand to 2016
– Land supply
– Market balance
 What do you think?
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Where’s the demand coming from?
Is the market delivering?
What sites will and won’t be taken up?
What do we need more of?
THE STUDY BRIEF
 Employment space means factories, warehouses and offices
 The study will inform the new Local Development Framework
 Key questions
– How much employment land should the planners provide?
– Which existing sites should be retained for employment?
 Estuary Sites
 Port related sites
 Euro Parc 4
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And which might be released for housing or other uses?
Should more land be found for employment uses?
If so, what for and where?
What else should the Council do about business space?
 Status of our report
– Information and advice to the Council
– Showing feasible options and their consequences
– The Council will take the final decisions
CONTEXT
National Policy - Jobs v Housing
 Jobs used to be the first planning priority –
– Ensuring enough land for economic development
 But housing has become the national planning priority
 In most of England we need less land for employment
– Because unemployment is at a near record low
– And we are swapping factory jobs for office jobs (which use less space)
 At the same time England needs more land for houses
– Smaller household sizes
 So Government guidance aims to increase the supply of housing land
– At the potential expense of employment land
– Build houses on former employment land which is no longer needed
– And employment allocations which have not been taken up
– Be careful not to oversupply employment land
 It’s a good policy where land is in short supply
 And there’s no need for many more jobs….
 But not necessarily in NE Lincs
National Policy
Meeting the Needs of Business
 Government Guidance
– ‘Sites allocated for employment need to reflect the
changing requirements of businesses and local
economies’
– Employment land studies will show what the needs
are
The Economy
 Unemployment is slightly higher than the norm
– NE Lincs 6.6%
– Y&H 5.3%
– GB 5.2%
 Jobs tend to be poorly paid and poorly skilled
– Only 26% of jobs are ‘professional’
 Great Britain 42%
 Yorkshire and the Humber 37%
– And 33% of jobs are unskilled manual
 Great Britain 19%
 Yorkshire and the Humber 22%
– Average earnings 9.40 per hour
 Great Britain 11.76
 Yorkshire and the Humber 10.29
 NE Lincs is rich in industries that are losing jobs
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Food, drink and tobacco
Chemicals, rubber and plastics
Transport
Wholesaling
The Economy Continued
 So today NE Lincs needs more jobs
– And higher-paid, higher-skilled jobs
– Provide workforce with improved skills to match
 But in the the future it may need fewer jobs:
– Yorkshire Forward forecast nil population growth
– (Yorks and the Humber grows by 8.9%)
– And an aging population
 So the workforce will decline
– Not clear if this takes account of RSS housing policy
 Will investigate
EMPLOYMENT LAND FUTURES
EMPLOYMENT LAND FUTURES
How much Land should NEL Provide?
 The Local Plan is now time expired
 The 1993 Humberside Structure Plan is out of date
 The County Council no longer exists
 Regional guidance is now provided by the Regional
Assembly
 Working with Yorkshire Forward
Future Employment Change 2004-16
 Land requirement is derived from employment forecasts
– by Experian for Yorkshire Forward
 As required by the Draft Regional Plan (RSS)
 The forecast shows NEL employment unchanged
– No B space jobs show a little growth
– And B space jobs decline even faster…
 Because more jobs shift into non B space sectors
– Retail, Education and Health etc..
 Sectors in which NE Lincolnshire is strong in decline faster than average
 NEL’s key sectors lose jobs very fast
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Food, Drink and Tobacco – 25%, 1,200 jobs
Transport – 12%, 700 jobs
Wholesaling – 10%, 500 jobs
Chemicals, rubber and plastics - 20%, 500 jobs
The Upside Scenario
 Yorkshire Forward have also developed a more optimistic
model
 In which many of the regions major sites get developed
 Adding 9,000 FTE jobs into NE Lincolnshire
– Of which nearly 7000 in B space
The Transformational Projects
Name of Project
Cleethorpes IDP
Food Town – Food Parks 2
Eastgate Port Expansion
Europarc
Europarc Phase 4
South Humber Bank
South Humber Bank
South Humber Bank
South Bank Port Expansion
Grimsby Urban Renaissance
Total
FTEs
180
60
400
1000
1200
250
250
300
100
3000
Name of Project
South Humber
Bank
Acres)
South(49
Humber
Bank (48 Acres)of
Re-development
SouthHumber
Bank
South
Bank University
Humber
Seafood
st
21Institute
Century
LEGI
Future Casino or
Hotel
Project
CATCH
Grimsby Town FC
Stadium
FTEs
100
300
250
1000
100
40
300
200
300
300
6740
Land Supply and Market Balance
 The Port
– Lots of port land – 200ha
– But where are the port jobs
– Will they grow?
 Despite increased automation etc
 And slower growth in imports?
 General Industrial
– 40 ha
– Of which 20 is at Europarc
 Is there too much land?
 Will it all be taken up?
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
Demand
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Who takes up space in NE Lincs?
What do they do?
Why do they want to be there?
Any inward investors?
From where?
What do they do?
Do they include office occupiers?
Where is NE Lincs competing with for inward investment?
What are its advantages?
And its disadvantages?
What are occupiers looking for?
Can they get it?
Any gaps in the market?
Market Conditions
 How tight is the market?
– Availability
– Space in the pipeline
 Rents
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Industrial
Office
Small/incubator units
Are rents high enough to support development?
What is the role of Council provision?
If more space was provided, would it let?
What kinds of space, where?
Why is more not provided?
Lack of sites?
Or lack of available sites?
Sites – What are the Prospects?
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Office development
– There’s almost no land supply
– Should there be?
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General industrial sites
– Remaining and proposed Europarc
– Others?
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Ports and estuary–
– What is the land demand for?
– Is there enough land (200+ ha?)
– Is it too constrained – RAMSAR etc….
– Do you need more – elsewhere? (abandon the existing?)
– Will the port produce new jobs?
– Mechanisation
– Low density employment
– What type of jobs?
– Experian forecast decline in transport jobs… is this right?
Sites and Prospects Continued
 ‘Value added’ port activity
– What is it?
– What type of land does it need?
– How much realistically can nel get?
– Dependent on the energy corridor and Humber Bundle?
– Food production
– Advanced engineering / manufacturing; and
– Environmental technologies / industries
 Chemicals
 Again, Experian forecast decline
 Can anything be done to stop this?
– Servicing the chemical industry
And Finally
 What else does the Council need to do?