WELCOME!

SUFFOLK, NEW YORK - AUGUST 2013 The Academy for Leadership and Development www.chairacademy.com

OVERVIEW: CRITICAL DECISION THINKING

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How do we decide to decide? Do organizations really decide?

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Myths Wisdom of Crowds

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Procedural Injustice Decision variables

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Biases Reasoning

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Procedural Decision Traps Asking the Right Questions Review and Reflection

GET SET!

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Pick your bag and reap your reward.

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First group to lunch.

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Nothing.

Stay back and clean-up after class.

Last group to lunch.

You get to steal a bag.

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Issues to decide

   Who will pick?

How will you decide?

Play or don’t play?

There is a code that may lead you to the best choice.

HINT, IT’S A BEAUTIFUL DAY!

DEFINING DECISION MAKING

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Classic Steps:

 Define the problem  Gather information/collect data  Develop and weigh the options  Choose the best possible option  Plan and execute  Take follow-up action 

DEFINED

The thought process of selecting a logical choice from the available options.

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A check and balance system that keeps the organization growing both in vertical and linear directions.

MYTH-REALITIES

MYTH

CEO Decides.

REALITIES

People at multiple levels engaging in simultaneous activity.

Decisions made in “the” room.

Singular and small group discussions across the organization.

Managers analyze then decide.

Decisions unfold in a nonlinear fashion with solutions often emerging BEFORE managers define the problem and analyze solutions.

Managers decide then act.

Decisions evolve over time, proceed through an iterative process of choice and action.

“CRITICAL” DECISION MAKING

The ability to make critical decisions is:

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Accurately defining a risk or problem,

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Framing risks related to the solutions

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Handling personal bias, and adherence to governance and process.

A well defined critical decision making process prevents secondary problems from arising.

Critical decisions may be quick or could take months depending on the compliance required for the product or service.

What makes a decision critical?

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When the risk of not deciding/deciding is relatively equivalent or mitigated and/or the cost of making the wrong choice may result in truly adverse consequences.

HOW DO WE DECIDE?

Model Intuitive Analogical Reasoning Rational Characteristics

Gut Feeling, seek to recognize patterns, mental simulation of preferred options.

A branch on intuitive; when we assess any given situation we make references to past experiences, then decide.

Try to capture knowns and unknowns, link to time (now & future), estimate probability of desired outcome, decide to maximize chance of outcome.

Danger

Requires exceptional knowledge of issues; OK for 1 st responders, but not for others.

Munich Analogy—we acted one way, did or didn’t work, need to do the same or opposite.

Often times driven by process and procedure, time is the enemy, estimates are slow and often imperfect.

Group

Draws on the experience and intelligence of many; mitigates potential individual cognitive biases.

Close proximity, strong individual leader, connection to issue may limit effectiveness.

BIASES

BIASES Overconfidence Sunk Cost Recency DESCRIBED

We convince ourselves we can no matter what.

We’ve already put so much into something we can’t withdraw.

We pick the low hanging fruit (info/data)—the stuff that’s most readily available to guide our decision.

Confirmation Anchoring Illusory Correlation

We rely too heavily on information/data that simply confirms our gut feeling.

We rely on an original reference point to distort our estimates.

We have an experience, it informs our judgment about the world or reality that may not match the facts about variables.

PROCEDURAL DECISIONS

Process and procedures can point the way, create a roadmap for deciding, they can also slow progress and greatly limit original thinking and actions.

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PRO ID agencies/reps to involve.

Legitimate process of evaluation/inquiry.

Cover know steps in useful sequence.

Generate lots of activity with out wasting time.

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CON Same cast of characters.

Process takes time, lacks sense of urgency.

Steps are often based on the world we know.

Activity may become more about process than the product itself. Makes us feel good, but?

ASK THE RIGHT QUESTIONS

    Assess the landscape —get a feel for the larger context, scan the horizon, look for key indicators.

Discover CORE questions —look for patterns, relationships between data, work to uncover deeper themes. Create an image of possibilities —it’s easy to pick an argument apart—seek to question constructively/positively.

Evolve workable strategies —question should contribute towards building the vision and accomplishing the mission.

Ask to learn, not to judge, to discover not deny, to lift up not tear down.

CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS

CASE STUDY

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OCT 1962, 1 year after Bay of Pigs

Photos reveal missiles 80 million US citizens at risk JFK forms Group-ExComm Meet for 12 intense days at WH/State JFK participates in some sessions avoids influence Most favored airstrike, McNamara favors blockade of Cuba.

JFK splits ExComm into two groups create competing White Papers, refer, critique JFK class in RFK and Ted Sorensen to serve as objective NON advocates.

Groups meet w/JFK, brief proposals, vet and decide.

CONSIDER COMPLEXITY

As you consider the Cuban Missile Crisis, reflect on the lessons from our discussion on complexity.

What were the attributes and landscape related to this issue?

Attributes

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Interdependent Diverse Adapt Connected Landscape Matters

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Simple Rugged Dancing

REMEMBER WHY COMPLEX SYSTEMS MATTER

 They offer the opportunity to deliver

robust

solutions.

  Increase the opportunity for

success

uncertain future.

despite an Better

adapt

to emergent conditions, particularly when limited notice has been given.  Allows an organization to deal with issues of significant

scope and reach

.

 Often capable of delivering a

lasting solution

faster, even under conditions of great

duress

.

HOW DID JFK OPTIMIZE THE SYSTEM?

Interdependency Diversity Adaptability Connectedness

HOW THEY BLEW IT

LEADER/ORG Bernie Ebbers WorldCom LESSON You built a palace, now who will run it?

Dick Fuld Lehman Brothers Ken Lay Enron Quick decisions don’t make good decisions.

Just because it worked once doesn’t mean it will work always.

Jimmy Carter Iran Rescue Fate reigns!

Jamie Oliver & Tony Goodwin 2010

CASE STUDY

Case studies require us to analyze problem situations and reach our own conclusions concerning the outcome.

        Name the issue.

Review the facts.

WHO is the ultimate decider?

List the key stakeholders.

Determine what matters.

Assess why it matters and to whom.

Assess your relationship with key stakeholders.

Make a recommendation.

ASSIGNMENT

Take 75 Minutes

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Form into teams.

Review materials.

Designate roles.

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Facilitator

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Time Keeper

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Reporter/Recorder Outline review process.

Record key observations.

Prepare summary report.

Report recommendation.

REPORT ON RESULTS

 What did you identify as the key issue?

 Who is the key decider?

 Why does the issue matter? To whom?

 Who are the key stakeholders?

 What is your recommendation?

 WHY?

SUMMARY

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Decisions matter

—they direct us towards the future, preserve us, inspire us and above all they move us to ACT.

Complex Systems

are better able to deal for complex decisions.

Rational decision models

but do NOT ensure success.

WATCH

may help, for cognitive biases.

Groups

show evidence of greater success, but only if organized, resourced and diverse.

Ask the

RIGHT

questions, create a culture where questions may be asked.

Procedures

should guide NOT rule.

REFLECT on the results!

REFLECTION

Record 2-3 ideas, issues that came out of the discussion that were most meaningful to you.

PERSONAL INVESTMENT PLAN (PIP)

Personal/Professional Investment Plan 2013-2014 Personal Object of My Desire

   Time to complete.

Things to do.

Why this matters to me.

How will I know I’m done; what does success look/feel like?

   Journal Discussion with mentor/buddy.

Objective assessment.

Professional Object of my Desire

   Time to complete.

Things to do.

Why this matters to me.

How will I know I’m done; what does success look/feel like?

   Journal Discussion with mentor/buddy.

Objective assessment.