Meeting the Energy Challenges of the 21

st

Century

Feryal Ozel University of Arizona

What exactly is the “crisis”?

Claim #1:The Energy Crisis and the Climate Crisis are the same thing

What exactly is the “crisis”?

The Energy Crisis and the Climate Crisis are the same thing

Our Resources

Claim #2: If we just drilled more, we would meet our energy needs

FALSE

Alternative Energy and Oil Imports

FALSE

Claim #3: If we develop alternative energy sources, this will end our dependence on imported oil

It is better for the environment to replace your 1998 Toyota Tercel with 2009 Toyota Prius

FALSE

The State of Fossil Fuels: USA and World Resources

• The United States consumes 21 million barrels/day • 25% of the world consumption • Highest consumption per capita after Canada and Saudi Arabia • About 70% of this amount is imported (from Canada, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, Venezuela, Nigeria, Iraq….) Why don’t we produce more?

How Much Oil Do We Have?

Country Saudi Arabia Proved Reserves * Billion barrels 263 Production Million barrels 9.1

No of Producing Wells 1560 Canada 179 3.3

Iran Iraq UAE Kuwait Venezuela Russia U.S.A.

* excludes oil shale 131 115 98 97 78 69 29 4.0

1.1

2.4

2.2

2.1

9.2

5.7

1120 1685 790 15,395 41,192 521,070

Drill Baby Drill!

In the US, average production from a single well: 11 barrels/day In Saudi Arabia, production from a single well: 5800 barrels/day

Drill Baby Drill!

Source: US Dept of Energy, 2008

Best case scenario (1 in 20 chances): 1% of world’s production 5% reduction in imports in 2030

The Peak of US Oil

This decline is despite large drilling efforts between 1973 and 1985

Cost of Drilling

Between 1973 and 1980: New capital investment in the US economy going to oil industry increased from 2% to 7% Total footage of drilled wells increased three fold THE RETURN?

US production declined by 7% $100 Billion net loss (2% of GDP)

US Energy Consumption

Energy flow in 2007 from the US Department of Energy Petroleum: 39.82

Unit: Quadrillion Btus

Petroleum Use

•

Primary Use: Transportation

Transportation uses up all of the imported oil • Agriculture: Industrial farming is extremely oil-intensive Other uses: Heating, Production of Plastics, Lubricants, Asphalt, Wax

How can we replace the petroleum use?

Biofuels?

• A very complex question • Idea: derive liquid fuels such as ethanol from agricultural crops (prime crops) • Has 2/3 the energy content of petroleum, at roughly twice the cost • Has benefited from federal and state subsidies • Takes about 1 gallon of petroleum to make enough ethanol to replace 1 gallon of petroleum (unless derived from agricultural/bio waste) • Look at the larger relationship between petroleum and agriculture

Fossil Fuels and Agriculture

• After transportation, agriculture uses the largest amount of oil at 17%

Fossil Fuels and Agriculture

• After transportation, agriculture uses the largest amount of oil at 17% • We use fossil fuels to make fertilizers, operation of machinery, transportation, irrigation

Fossil Fuels and Agriculture

• After transportation, agriculture uses the largest amount of oil at 17% • We use fossil fuels to make fertilizers, operation of machinery, transportation, irrigation • Today, 400 gallons of oil is used to feed each American annually • It is accurate to say our diet includes fossil fuels • Policies for single-crop farming have worsened the situation

Non-Prime Crops

Feedstock grasses Picture courtesy of Steven Chu, LBNL

Responsible Biofuels

IF prairie grass can be grown in otherwise unusable land, IF and enzymes can be developed to produce ethanol economically, a good solution OTHERWISE, Economically, socially, environmentally, and scientifically a bad idea

First order of business: Couple electricity to transportation

Electric / Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles

HAVE TO BE PART OF THE SOLUTION! Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)

Use on on-board electricity Recharged from electrical grid No combustion engine

Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)

Combustion engine plus one or more electric motors. Uses only hydrocarbon fuel

Slide Credit: Electric Power Research Institute Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)

Should I replace my car?

• It costs a lot of energy and materials to build a new car • If you have a functioning, reasonable fuel-efficiency car (> 20 or so mpg), do not replace it When you replace it, buy a plug-in hybrid electric car

Hydrogen Fuel Cells

• Hydrogen cells store energy, do not produce it • Hydrogen is a very inefficient way of storing energy • Manufacturing (liquid) hydrogen tanks is extremely expensive • Overall efficiency (electrolysis x compression x fuel cell) = 40 %

US Electricity Production Sources

Hydropower 7% Oil 3% Renewables 2% Source: US Department of Energy Natural Gas 16% Nuclear 20% Coal 52% Are there any concerns with the current state of affairs?

Sustainable? Economical? Environmentally friendly?

Prospects for Electricity Production

• Natural gas: burns reasonably cleanly, cheapest in plant construction and fuel costs but reserves diminishing rapidly • Hydroelectric: truly clean and renewable, some environmental concerns, but most of the U.S. capacity developed • Coal: 200 yrs reserves, cheapest after natural gas, but…

The Climate Crisis

Temperature increase: 1.3 F Very tight relation between Temperature and CO 2 in the atmosphere

Source: IPCC, endorsed by ALL National Academies of Science

The Projections

60 Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 30 Historical emissions 27 6 0 1950 2000 2050 Current CO2: 375 ppm Historical: 180-280 ppm for ~million yrs 2100

Clean Coal =

Carbon capture and “geological” storage

Capture Compression Pipeline Transport Underground Injection

• Will make coal electricity twice as expensive

Clean Coal

• Impacts of unintended leakage – Health and safety of workers and general population – Environmental impacts – Unwanted intrusion into drinking water • Earthquakes

Unfortunately, not clean enough Tree kill at Mammoth Mountain, CA

http://quake.wr.usgs.gov/prepare/factsheets/CO2/

Nuclear

Multi-faceted question: fuel reserves, economy, safety, proliferation, waste

PROS:

• Civilian uses and weapons uses completely separated in the U.S.

• Enough fuel for > 30 yrs if ALL U.S. electricity is from nuclear plants • Enough fuel for thousands of yrs if fuel is reprocessed

QUESTIONS:

• High(er) cost is entirely due to weak policy • There has never been an injury related to nuclear power plants in the U.S.

• Waste issue needs to be addressed before construction of any new plants

Solar Energy

Solar Energy

• It is possible to capture the sun’s energy for direct electricity generation OR for heat generation in a power plant • Can provide all of the U.S. electricity needs with solar energy (100 square miles in AZ or Nevada covered with 20% efficient solar cells can do it: e.g., Turner, 1999, Science, 285, 687) • Currently, focus is on decreasing cost

Solar Concentrators

Efficiency

Energy efficiency has to be the first component of any national energy plan or response to climate change Energy/cost savings can be HUGE with simple steps Just a few examples

14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 California: World’s 6th Largest Economy Per Capita Electricity Sales (not including self-generation) (kWh/person) (2006 to 2008 are forecast data) United States 2005 Differences = 5,300kWh/yr = $165/capita California

Total

$700 Billion savings US GDP/capita Cal GSP/capita

Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $

1975 2005 % change

16,241 18,760 31,442 33,536 94% 79% data from the California Energy Commission

Impact of Standards on The Efficiency of 3 Appliances 110 100 = = Effective Dates of National Standards Effective Dates of State Standards 90 80 Gas Furnaces

75%

70

60%

60 Central A/C 50 SEER = 13 40 Refrigerators 30

25%

20 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 Year 1992 1994 1996

Source: S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer Study, www.eceee.org

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

MANY Other Savings

LED lights, glazed low-E windows, cogeneration plants, mileage standards, ………

“pay-back time” is typically ~1 yr for most of these Compare to 11 years development time for drilling

Windows for heating and cooling climates

Image credit: Stephen Selkowitz, LBNL

Cool Color Cars

• •

Toyota experiment (surface temperature 18F cooler) Ford, BMW, and Fiat are also working on the technology

slide credit: Akbari, LBNL

A Similar Approach to Climate Stabilization

from the McKinsey report

1.

2.

3.

4.

Conclusions

Priority List: Efficiency Standards Car Batteries/PHEV Cars Solar and Nuclear Energy to generate electricity (including research funds for fusion) Reduce Agriculture’s dependence on Fossil Fuels Despite the agendas pushing for them, drilling, prime-crop ethanol, hydrogen fuel cells, and “clean” coal are unsupported ideas

Solar Energy and Demand

Solar Energy provides most of the demand, can be supplemented in evening hours