Transcript Slide 1

Slides presented at
IGST XII - St John’s
Mike Bell, co-chair (Met Office, UK)
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
Patrons & GODAE Project Office
● Role of Patrons
 To advise on institutional priorities
 To assist in funding projects, events and GODAE Project Office
● Updating list of Patrons
 BMRC (Neville Smith), CNES (Eric Thouvenot), ESA (Mark Drinkwater),
EUMETSAT (F Parisot), Mercator (Pierre Bahurel), Met Office (Mike Bell),
NASA (Eric Lindstrom), NOAA (Stan Wilson), ONR (Scott Harper)
 Additional potential patrons are being encouraged to participate (e.g. IOOS
(Mary Altalo), NCEP (Ming Ji)
● Financial situation of GODAE Project Office
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£143k transferred from BMRC (Jan 07)
£78k is actual spend Sep 06 – Jun 07
£250k is estimated total spend Sep 06 – Dec 08
£64k committed (mainly EUMETSAT, NOAA) since Sep 06
£43k is present shortfall
● Sponsorship of Major Events

Final Symposium & Summer school will not be funded through the
GODAE project office
 Funds will be raised directly
IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
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Reports back on Actions
● Action 8: Poor Man’s Ensembles
– Simple time series of SSTs for selected points and differences from
ensemble mean using SST products generated by OSTIA, RTG,
RSS, FNMOC and FOAM products
– Useful conclusions on strengths/weaknesses attainable
● Action 7: Collate examples of ocean input in NWP
– Yamamoto M. & Hirose N. (2007), GRL, 34. Impact of satellite based
SST and ocean model RIAMSST on developing cyclone in Japan Sea
in 10 km resolution NWP simulation. Impact on MSLP, surface
turbulent fluxes, precipitable water content. Validation using
integrated cloud water amount and an infra-red cloud image.
– Mike McCulloch (Met Office) has rerun NWP tropical cyclone
forecasts using OSTIA SST analyses. Discernible positive impact on
track of one of four hurricanes studied
● Action 44: Coordination of demonstrations of impact of
observations on seasonal forecasting
– David Anderson sees seasonal forecasting as a blunt tool for
assessments. He’s not aware of a coordination effort. OSSE meeting
may be able to raise this issue ?
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
Report from GHRSST (1)
● Project is progressing very well
 GHRSST Annual Science Meeting in Melbourne well attended
and useful
● Good operational use of satellite data
 Most useful SST satellite data now within the GHRSST-PP
regional/global task sharing framework
 This now exchanges 10 Gbyte of data per day
● There are now 10 L4 analyses
 A new GHRSST-PP Multi-Product Ensemble (GMPE) Group
has been set up to intercompare the L4 analyses
 Key global L4 analyses combined as a poor man’s ensemble
at Met Office
 High resolution diagnostic data set (HRDDS) work extending
to include model data as well as in situ – useful to include
● The re-analysis project (for last 20 years) is
moving ahead. Data sets are being developed
and links to GCOS SST/SI WG are strong
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
Report from GHRSST (2)
● Craig would like to broaden support for
GHRSST Project Office (current
supporters are European) to include
NOAA or Japan if possible
● The future of the GHRSST project is
being discussed
 Concensus in Science Team is that the PP should
remain until transition to operations has occurred
and beyond if necessary
 Dexter (and others) suggest it may not need a
“home” (such as IOC or JCOMM or GEO) but there
are other views
 Options will be explored further. Decision expected
next year
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
Future of IGST ?
● What was good about GODAE and IGST ?
 Had a clear and compelling objective – to demonstrate open
ocean forecasts both feasible and valuable in order to make
case for transition of necessary observing systems to
operational status
 Objectives well aligned with organisations able to provide
funding (space agencies)
 IGST is a good size of group for information exchange. Best
chance of year to find out what other groups are doing and
discuss issues
 People involved willing to contribute (but often too busy)
 Incentives/reasons stronger for collaborating than competing
 Excitement of doing something new
 A good leader
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
Future of IGST ?
● My current opinions
 Important to close GODAE to take stock of where we are
 Refreshing the objective – getting a new compelling objective
is key
 Tie in to JCOMM is important – if it is not rather close
operational oceanography and JCOMM will not be effective
 Quality of information exchange is key. Group could be a bit
larger but not bigger than 50
 Some Project Office type resources are necessary to help
people to contribute and complete tasks (e.g. web & IP)
 Incentives/reasons for collaborating must be stronger than
competing
 Excitement is important: doing something that will have an
impact is exciting
 A good leader doesn’t have to be like Neville
 WCRP/CAS/JCOMM WG sounds better than IOC
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
Final Symposium
Break-out Discussion summary
● OST preferred to JCOMM as partner
– Difficulties in capturing target user attention; organisational
strengths of CNES; observation community
● Themes and Balance
– Review and planning of future 75:25
– Celebration and critical examination 70:30
• Recognition of key achievements does both
– Individual systems and key issues 20:80
– Observations and user applications 50:50
● Organising ideas
– Multi-author papers similar to First Symposium
– Focus on key achievements
● Need an outline of themes, papers and joint authors
– Mike & Pierre-Yves to draft outline of themes and papers
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
Final Symposium (2)
Themes/Papers
● Original concept
–
The concept of GODAE and the Symposium
● Operational forecasting systems that have been implemented
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Model & Assimilation system (National report writers)
Data and product servers (Frederique Blanc, Steve Hankin, Keith Haines, Peter Cornillon, Peter Hacker, Srinivasan, Tim Pugh, Martin Price
● Internal Validation (title ?)
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Demonstrations of feasibility (Harley Hurlburt, Eric Dombrowsky, each system)
Intercomparisons of forecasts (Fabrice Hernandez, Gary Brassington, Matt Martin,
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Assessments of impact of observing system (OSEs) (Peter Oke, T. Awaji, Matt Martin, Eric Dombrowsky, Greg Jacobs, Jim Cummings, PY le Traon)
● Key Scientific & Technical Developments & Issues
–
In situ & Satellite Observational network (2 papers ?) (Dean Roemmich, Mike Johnson, Ed Harrison, Craig Donlon, Stan Wilson, Mark Drinkwater, Francois
Parisot, Susan Wjffels, Eric Thouvenot)
–
Observation processing (Jim Cummings, Bruce Ingleby, Giles Larnicol, Sylvie Pouliquen, Gary Brassington, Greg Jacobs, Pierre-Yves le
Traon, Bob Keeley)
Modelling (Eric Chassignet, Alan Wallcraft, Gurvan Madec, Anne Marie Treguier, Remy Baraille, Steve Griffies, Andreas Schiller, Bernard
Barnier, Dan Wright)
Assimilation (Jim Cummings, Anthony Weaver, Peter Oke, Keith Haines, Toni Lee, Ichiro Fukumori, Pierre Brasseur, Pierre de Mey,
Jacques Verron, Matt Martin, T. Awaji, Keith Thomson, Laurent Bertino)
Product serving (Frederique Blanc, Steve Hankin, Keith Haines, Peter Cornillon, Peter Hacker, Srinivasan, Tim Pugh, Martin Price
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● Development of Applications (Services?)
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Safety and effectiveness of operations at Sea (includes SAR) (Fraser Davidson, Brian Stone, Art Allen, Oyvind Breivik, Bruce Hackett,
Pierre Daniel, Ralph Rayner, Bob Woodham, Greg Jacobs)
Downscaling for Coastal models (Pierre de Mey, Roger Proctor, John Siddorn, Fraser Davidson, George Halliwell, Alexander Barth, Peter
Craig, John Kindle,Dominique Obaton, Hiroyuki Tsujino)
Coupled atmospheric forecasts (NWP, seasonal, climate) (Oscar Alves, Magdalena Balmaseda, Arum Kumar, Toni Lee, Paul Sandery,
Helene Banks, Rich Hodur, Nicolas Ferry, Yosuke Fujii)
Monitoring and protection of the environment (John Siddorn, Patrick Monfray, Nicolas Gruber, Patrick Lehodey, Keith Brander, Andreas
Oschlies, Alistair Hobday)
● Project Assessments
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Pilot Projects: Argo & GHRSST (Dean Roemmich, Craig Donlon, ….)
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Evaluation of effectiveness (Neville Smith, Pierre Yves le Traon, Mike Bell, Mary Altalo, Pierre Bahurel)
● Proposal for the future
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Key research priorities (Pierre Brasseur, Eric Chassignet, Roger Proctor, Patrick Monfrey, Gary Brassington, Scott Harper)
Assessment of options for coordination post-GODAE (Stan Wilson, Pierre Bahurel, Neville Smith, Ed Harrison, Scott Harper, Pierre Yves
le Traon, Mike Bell)
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
Final Symposium (4)
Themes/Papers/Key issues
● Original concept
–
–
–
The concept of GODAE and the Symposium
the aim, rationale and need; minimum required for observations, modelling, assimilation
and user engagement
Explanation of purpose and organisation of papers
● Operational forecasting systems that have been implemented
–
–
–
Model & Assimilation systems
Data and product servers
Coordinated factual descriptions
● Internal Validation (title ?)
–
–
Demonstrations of feasibility
Intercomparisons of forecasts
–
Assessments of impact of observing system (OSEs)
● Key Scientific & Technical Developments & Issues
–
–
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In situ & Satellite Observational network (2 papers ?)
What is being monitored (variables & scales), what has value mainly for validation
key technological advances
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Observation processing
Modelling
Key steps forward; goals for future
Assimilation
What complexity is required; what aspects of error covariance need to be captured
properly & what methods are well suited to this
Product serving
–
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
Final Symposium
Themes/Papers/Key issues
● Development of Applications (Services?)
–
–
–
–
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Safety and effectiveness of operations at Sea (includes SAR)
Downscaling for Coastal models
Coupled atmospheric forecasts (NWP, seasonal, climate)
Monitoring and protection of the environment (fisheries)
What information is feasible and valuable; key achievements; key
goals for future (why important and achievable)
● Project Assessments
– Pilot Projects: Argo & GHRSST
– What was the need/rationale/opportunity; key achievements; key
goals for future (why important and achievable)
– Evaluation of effectiveness
– Original Metrics for Success; other outcomes; evolution of concept
● Options for the future
– Key research priorities
– Assessment of options for coordination post-GODAE
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007
Next IGST – Location & Timing
● Location – Washington DC – Scott, Ming, Ed
to sort out
● Date - between May and Sep 08
● What to discuss ? How does this affect date ?
– Future of IGST – no constraints
– Preparation of final Symposium
• Content of joint papers ? Aug / Sep a good time ?
– Results from intercomparisons – later is better
June/July
– Preparation of summer school – OK
– Working groups – no constraints
– National reports – no constraints – may not be
needed ?
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IGST Meeting, St John’s, Newfoundland, Canada – 7-9 August 2007