Transcript Document
French Nat. Report (Mercator Océan): Planned future activities and examples of demonstration
Eric Dombrowsky
Major achievements during GoDAE The present capacity Services developed (examples) The next phase
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Outline
Major achievements during GoDAE The present capacity Services developed (examples) The next phase
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Outline
Major achievements during GoDAE from 1997 Fort de France meeting (1/2)
Mercator Océan established – Legal entity owned by CNES, CNRS, IRD, IFREMER, Météo-France and SHOM Mercator Océan is an
operational, global, real-time ocean forecast service provider
Its activity follows 3 main axes: –
Exploit
and
maintain
real-time numerical ocean forecast systems • Exploitation, production, expertise and qualification • Maintenance – Ensure
service level
as required by its users, and
promotes the development of downstream services
at the Global scale • Dedicated/generic services • Communication, outreach – Prepare
service evolutions
close to the
state of the art
to maintain
service quality
• Innovation, development, integration of new functionalities • Prototyping, …
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Major achievements during GoDAE from 1997 Fort de France meeting (2/2)
System suite developed and operated –
North Atlantic + Med
eddy resolving (routine) – –
Global
eddy permitting (routine) and low resolution (routine)
Global eddy resolving (demo in April 2008)
Methodology defined, and tools implemented for assessment and validation – GoDAE Metrics Links with data centers developed –
CORIOLIS
for the
In Situ
observing system – –
SSALTO/DUACS Météo-France
for the for the
altimetry SST
(to evolve within MyOcean) and
Forcing
Connection with other operational oceanography centers established – Within EU-GMES: UKMO, NERSC, INGV, DMI, DFO – Bilateral collaborations • MOON (Med sea), GOAPP (DFO/EC Canada), … – International • GoDAE, EuroGOOS, …
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
The model configurations
1 point sur 12
1 code
: NEMO (OPA9+LIM)
1 grid
: all the configurations are on the same ORCA (tripolar) grid
One single input dataset
initialization and forcing interpolated inline : Some of these configurations are shared with the scientific and operational community – ORCA025: Drakkar and Glorys Project, Barnier et al.
– UKMO, CMCC, EC, DFO, … ORCA025 ORCA12 ATL12 NEATL36
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
The assimilation scheme: SAM2 (Kalman Filter type)
SAM2v1: SEEK filter using multivariate 3D modes SAM2 kernel Model initialisation SEEK Analysis Modal Space (Reduced Space) Control Space
Hbar Barotropic U(k) V(k) T(k) S(k) Baroclinic Ψ
T ,
S
U bar , V bar 3D modes acting on 3D space
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
+
U geo , V geo
U,
V
Outline
Achievements (system development) during GoDAE The present capacity Services developed (examples) The next phase
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Several model configurations operated for several uses
Regional eddy resolving (2002 ) – North Atlantic + Mediterranean – operational: 5-7 km, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of alti. T/S and SST –
From April 2008
: 1/12 ° (6.5 km at 45°N), NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of alti, T/S and SST, daily fcst – Target: mesoscale upper ocean, downscaling to smaller regional and coastal regions, … Global eddy permitting (09/2005 ) – operational: ¼°, OPA8, ROOI assimilation of alti only –
From April 2008
: ¼°, NEMO/LIM, SEEK assim. of alti, T/S and SST •
Has been operated in demo mode during Mersea TOP2: April
Sept 2007
– Target: global ocean climate monitoring, biology, sea ice, reanalysis, … Global low resolution (05/2004 ) – Today: 2°, OPA8, SEEK assim of alti, T/S and SST – Target: oceanic initial conditions for coupled seasonal prediction, reanalysis
Global eddy resolving (to be operational at the end of MyOcean)
–
NEMO/LIM+SEEK 1/12 °
•
Has been demonstrated in April 2008
–
Target: Global Marine Core Service and downscaling to European regions
Northeastern Atlantic high resolution (to be operational at the end of MyOcean)
–
NEMO 1/36 ° +SEEK + Tidal free surface
–
Target: IBIROOS Marine Core Service
Boundary data to coastal systems Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
System performance: SLA
Global 1/4 ° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right)
Nov 07 Apr 08 Nov 07
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Apr 08
+ ~ = +
System performance: T and S biases
Global 1/4 ° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right) ~ =
Temperature Temperature +/-0.5
° +/-0.5
° Salinity Salinity +/-0.05 Psu +/-0.05 Psu
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
+ +
System performance: T and S RMSDIF
Global 1/4 ° (Left) versus Global 1/12° (Right)
Temperature 0.5
° Temperature 0.5
° Salinity Salinity 0.1 Psu 0.1 Psu
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
T/S Global (1/4 °) overall performances
1-year average (2007). Left: Bias, Right: RMSdiff
600m Temp +/- 0.5
°C 0.5 °C 600m Temp Sal +/- 0.1 Psu 0.1 Psu
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Sal
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Mercator 1/12° - 20m salinity - April 29 2008
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Outline
Achievements (system development) during GoDAE The present capacity Services developed (examples) The next phase
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Use of Mercator products for Navy operations: acoustically interpretive products
The French Navy (SHOM) has been developing Operational Ocean Forecating Systems since 1990: the SOAP program These systems rely now on Mercator products Sea Surface Temperature From MERCATOR system Thickness of the surface duct Exploitability of the surface duct Indicator: green: good conditions, Red: no conditions From Jourdan et al.
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
[S1] Delineated eddies and fronts French Navy product based on Mercator
Front and eddies with potential acoustic impact detected by Navy forecasters and delivered to Navy headquarters for operations at sea
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Expertise added by Mercator Ocean Forecasters
Example of Real-time bulletin: 29 March 2006 in the Gulf of Mexico Nowcast on March 29th
On duty during all the period Number of tracks JASON ENVISAT GFO
6 0 4
Date of the lastest tracks
25 March 13 March 24 March Assimilation: – 2 on 3 Sat on duty, and some interest area are almost not covered.
– No in-situ observations assimilated . Model : – The model is a bit late, with the persistence of a small residual error in the south of the LCE. – The LC stream is confirmed by satellite SSH map and AVHRR data. – The LCE is well located compared to AVHRR data.
Overall situation : – On north : • The new LCE is moving westerly along the sigsbee escarpment while the second LCE is virtually stationary.
– On south : • The CARE is crossing the YS, and increase the stability and intensity of the LC, this one is retracted (mode 1)
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Monitoring surface current to follow drifting objects
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Indicator WEB service
http://www.mersea.eu.org/Indicators-with-B4G.html
E.g., SST monitoring in European waters Available regions map Thematic menu
Tropical Cyclone Monitoring Example: RAMASSUN (May 2008)
Guess cyclone fate from Ocean near surface heat content -
Bulletin Input Displacement from (1ON: 130E) towards (40N:120E)
-
Ocean bulletin: significant intensification in the next 48 hr significant weakening north of 20°N
Buarque, 2008
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Tropical Cyclone DEAN (August 2008)
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Cyclone NARGIS (May 2008)
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Observing systems impact studies: Impact of altimetry on analysis and forecast accuracy
Results of an Observing System Experiment (OSE) All experiment: -North Atlantic + Med eddy resolving system (1/15 °) -Multivariate assimilation of SLA+SST+T/S profiles -1 year integration (2004)
SLA RMSDIFF 7-day Forecast (cm) Nowcast (cm) No altimetry Jason only Jason + Envisat Jason +Envisat +GFO 10,27 9,67 8,95 Jason +Envisat +GFO +T/P 8,62 9,15 8,36 7,50 7,08 Hindcast (cm) 12,94 8,38 7,07 6,18 5,63
Benkiran, 2008
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
[S5] Observing systems impact studies: Impact of altimeter data coverage Assim of: In situ T/S + RTG SST +
•No alt •Jason •Jason + Envisat •Jason + Envisat + GFO (baseline) •Jason + Envisat + GFO + T/P •Progressive loss ( ) Shown here diags from innovation: Obs (not yet assimilated) - Forecast Full domain
RMS(Obs-Expi)-RMS(Obs-Baseline) RMS(Obs)
> 0 means degradation in % 0 is the baseline (3 sats) < 0 means improvement in % POMME region Cape Verde region Benkiran, 2008
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Observing systems impact studies Impact of ARGO (low resolution global)
Number of observations
improved forecast scores thanks to ARGO network ARGO deployment
:
start: 2002 Now: ~3000 floats Global Ocean, Salinity 7-day forecast misfit NINO 4 box Salinity (Trop. Pacific), 7-day forecast misfit NINO 4 box Temperature misfit
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
(Trop. Pacific), 7-day forecast
Outline
Achievements (system development) during GoDAE The present capacity Services developed (examples) The next phase
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08
Future developments
System – Global eddy resolving (1/12°) – Enhanced capacity on North Atlantic + Med – High resolution (1/36°) in the Iberian Biscay Irish region (IBIROOS) • Collaboration with Spain Services – RT: • Transition to operational services within MyOcean 2010 • Daily service of short-term forecast O(1 week) GLO1/4+NATL1/12 • Weekly assimilation and medium range forecast O(2 weeks) • Operational backup at UKMO for global and NATL+MED – Reanalysis: • GLORYS: 20-years reanalysis (altimetry era) within MyOcean 2010 • Longer reanalysis: collaboration with ECMWF
Eric Dombrowsky - Final IGST - Washington - 2-4 June 08