Transcript Slide 1
The CSR, housing & regeneration in London David Lunts London Director, Homes & Communities Agency South East London Housing Partnership 6th December 2010 Thriving communities, affordable homes New affordable housing has been increasing – despite (or because of) the recession Affordable housing completions (gross) 1995 - 2010 80,000 70,000 60,000 ENGLAND 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 LONDON 10,000 0 Source: CLG Thriving communities, affordable homes The fiscal stimulus package has worked – but now the party’s over Thriving communities, affordable homes CSR ‘10: a ‘game changer’ for housing Capital Programme: £4.5bn nationally (60% cut – higher for new activity) Commitments at record level (£2.3bn) – but funded – so programme is backloaded New affordable housing model (£1.8bn; up to 80% market rent for new lettings and relets; renewable tenancies; grant conditional on new model) Up to 150,000 new affordable homes New HB property caps from 2011 – and household caps from 2013 Decent Homes: £2bn. London has 46% of non-decent stock (85,000 homes) End to ring fencing and HRA reform New Homes Bonus from April 2011 Thriving communities, affordable homes Record levels of commitments to fund London HCA budget showing forward funding commitments from 2011 Budget Commitments 1800 1600 1400 (Final London CSR allocation from 11/12 not yet determined, so provisional) 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Thriving communities, affordable homes 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 CSR: what future for regeneration? Commitments funded – but no new budget & Thames Gateway programme wound up HCA/LDA/GLA merger: a major land bank – and regeneration receipts can be recycled Public land can be key to viability – but other financial pressures Crossrail and Olympic dividend TIFs – has their time come? Estate regeneration: a challenge for the new model Importance of targeting new housing investment towards local priorities identified through the BIPs Thriving communities, affordable homes The new investment model - there’s no time to lose London affordable starts and completions Future of London Conference 18000 completions 16000 starts 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Thriving communities, affordable homes 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 Prices have partly recovered in London, but the ‘real’ market remains deeply depressed (Transactions from peak to 2010) Thriving communities, affordable homes Source: CLG, Land Registry Little prospect of lending recovery mortgage lending for home purchase (at constant 2010 prices) 200,000 2006: £78bn of RMBS issued 71% of total increase in loan book for year £m (constant 2010 prices) 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 £300bn funding gap 40,000 20,000 Thriving communities, affordable homes 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 0 Source: CML Key issues 1. New rent model has significant investment potential in London where market rents are close to double target rents 2. Launching the new model is urgent, as our current programme quickly disintegrates after March 2011 and RSLs face pressures 3. Alignment with localism & ‘devolved delivery’: need to define borough priorities through Borough Investment Agreements 4. Interplay with welfare reform – particular pressures on larger homes 5. Estate regeneration: viability and rent pressures 6. LCHO – what role? 7. Forward allocations to deal with ‘back loaded’ programme 8. Viability – Grant – Rents: ring fencing vs. pooling 9. New risk profile for RSLs (relet income; gearing; covenants etc) 10. Planning: need to clarify S106 position Thriving communities, affordable homes Next steps National briefing 9th Dec RP London briefing 17th December Borough workshop 21st December Investment prospectus launched in January London appraisals against Mayoral and local priorities – March 2011 Launch new programme – April 2011 Thriving communities, affordable homes