Transcript This is an example presentation title

Kent Housing Group
10th September 2013
Terrie Alafat
Director, Housing Growth and Affordable Housing
Department for Communities and Local Government
A Housing Strategy to increase supply
Supporting demand
• Recognition of aspiration of home
ownership
• Increasing demand for rented
homes
Increase housing supply
• Across all tenures – addressing
barriers
Underpinned by systemic reform
• Planning
• Greater land availability
Getting house building moving again is crucial for economic
growth – having a direct impact on economic output, averaging
at 3% of the GDP in the last decade.
2
The Challenge: Barriers to supply
3
The Challenge: Barriers to demand
• Sharp fall in annual mortgage
lending in 2007-8.
• From 2000-2007, annual mortgage
lending increased by 200%
Mortgage Lending
• Lending broadly flat since
• First time buyers particularly hit
as deposit requirements soared
• Demand for private rented
housing is growing - the sector
now houses 3.8 million
households in England,
compared to 2.0 million in 2000..
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
70.0
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
First Time Buyers – Deposits as % of Income
10.0
Month
Jan-13
Sep-12
Jan-12
4
May-12
Sep-11
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-10
Jan-10
May-10
Sep-09
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-06
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-04
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-03
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-02
Jan-02
0.0
May-02
%
Delivery to 2015
£3.5bn, £1bn
Guarantee
75,000 plus
transactions
PLANNING
REFORM
Supporting
Home Ownership
Help to
Buy: Equity
Loan
NewBuy
Right to Buy
Expanding
Rented Sector
Affordable
Homes
Programme
Unlocking Housing
Development
Local
Growing
Get Britain
Public
Infrastructure Building sector land Places
Fund
Fund
Build to
rent
Debt
Guarantees
PRS
taskforce
Nearly
£6bn,
£10bn
Guarantees
Up to
210,000
homes
£1.6bn
Unlocking
capacity for
over 120,000
homes 5
11,000 started
on site
2013 has shown the most positive signs to
date of recovery in housing market activity
Quarterly housing starts & completions
(seasonally adjusted)
Quarterly housing starts hit
their highest point since 2010
50,000
45,000
40,000
Starts
35,000
Completions
BUT starts and completions are
down on the long term average
30,000
25,000
180,000
20,000
160,000
19
90
1
19
91
2
19
92
3
19
93
4
19
95
1
19
96
2
19
97
3
19
98
4
20
00
1
20
01
2
20
02
3
20
03
4
20
05
1
20
06
2
20
07
3
20
08
4
20
10
1
20
11
2
20
12
3
15,000
Quarter
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
The flow of residential planning
approvals in Q1 2013 7% higher
than a year ago.
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 Q1
only
6
This is driven by improved demand and
consumer confidence
•Value of mortgage lending up 29%
from a year ago. Strongest lending
since October 2008.
30% increase in number of loans to
FTB in year to June 2013. Quarterly
lending to first-time buyers was at its
highest since 2007.
UK FTB loans as proportion of total mortgages (CML data)
% of all mortgages
50
40
30
Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Oct-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Oct-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13
Month
Net reservations per site
And reservations on site are
moving ahead of seasonal
trends.
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Jan '08
Jan '09
Jan '10
Jan '11
Jan '12
7
Jan '13
Builders are responding to better market
conditions
Construction orders are at their
highest level since 2008.
UK construction PMI showed the
fastest rate of growth in 6 years (since
September 2007) – and the fourth
consecutive month showing a positive
change, driven by residential
construction.
100%
90%
And there are more units
progressing towards a start –
11% more in June 2013 than in
June 2012.
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
'Dec 11
'Mar 12
% of units On Hold
'Jun 12
'Sep 12
'Jan 13
'Jun 13
% of units progressing towards start
8
Spending Round: housing package
DEMAND
• Help to Buy: Equity Loan £1.3bn in 15/16
• Help to Buy: Mortgage Guarantee
LAND
• £102 million to unlock large sites
• Strategic review to identify Government
surplus land and set disposal target
• HCA will be Land Disposal Agency
PRIVATE RENTED SECTOR
• Build to Rent £300m 15/16
• Guarantees
LOCAL GROWTH
• £2bn/yr local growth pot
• local transport investment
AFFORDABLE HOMES
• Affordable Homes programme £3.3bn, plus Guarantees
• Rent certainty CPI + 1%
• New £400m Rent to Buy programme
9
Spending Round: Affordable Homes
Delivery
• £3.3bn package for 165,000 new
affordable homes over 3 years from
2015-16.
• Stronger focus on driving out
efficiencies and managing assets
actively.
• Rent certainty - rents in the social sector will increase annually
by CPI + 1%, for ten years, from 2015/16.
• £400m to pilot a new approach to affordable housing in
‘Affordable Rent to Buy’.
10
Spending Round: Local Authority
assets
• £160m for Decent Homes
targeted at authorities to
reduce greatest backlog.
• Aim to ensure no authority
will have more than 10% of
stock non-decent by 2016.
• £100m for stock transfer in
2015/16 with strong valuefor-money and tenant
support.
11
What will this deliver?
•
Aiming for 55,000 affordable housing starts a year, the highest
rate of new build affordable housing for at least 20 years
•
Current programme demonstrated the sector’s ability to drive
efficiency and deliver more with less public subsidy
•
New programme provides the long term investment framework
landlords asked for. In return, we will look for:
•
•
•
Continuing focus on efficiency and value for money
Opportunities to make more of the asset base – including
the range of options on re-let
Non-developers and under-developers to consider their
capacity to start building
12
Homelessness
40,000
Statutory Homelessness
Acceptances and use of
Temporary Accommodation still
well below 2003 peak - though
increasing.
35,000
30,000
25,000
;
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Recognise pressures arising from:
• Affordability (linked to supply)
• Welfare Reform
Seasonally adjusted
Non Seasonal
Government maintaining support to VCS and LAs - £470m over the
current SR
Gold Standard for homelessness services – includes commitment to
limit B&B for families.
13
Where next?
•
How will housing associations use flexible tenure, rent certainty and
increased efficiency to drive investment in affordable homes?
•
Will Affordable Rent to Buy offer new opportunities to meet housing need in
Kent?
•
What more can local authorities do with their land and assets to support
supply?
•
Will housing be a key part of your LEP’s draft local growth strategy due in
the autumn?
14