Transcript Document

The Human Population
Concepts we will discuss
 Factors affecting human population size.
 Human population problems
 Managing population growth
More concepts we will discuss
How populations are measured and
what information those statistics reveal
Population growth theory
Relationship between carrying
capacity and population growth
Even more concepts we will
discuss
Arguments associated with the Great
Population Debate.
How demographic statistics provide
information about a nation’s quality of
life.
Population growth and quality of life
comparisons between more- and lessdeveloped countries.
What is a population?
Individuals
of a single species that
simultaneously occupy the same
general area, having a high
likelihood of interaction.
Characteristics of Populations
Population
Density: Number of
individuals per unit area.
Characteristics of Populations
Population
Dispersion: Pattern of
spacing among individuals.
Population
Growth
Exponential
(no limit to what
environment can support)
Logistic (environment has a
specific carrying capacity)
Population Growth

Growth Rates
Crude
birth rate
Crude death rate
Zero population growth
Population Growth



Doubling Times
Rule of 70
Least Developed Countries have the
shortest doubling times.
The Rule of 70
The Great Population Debate

The Great Population Debate Points of
View
 There is No Population Problem
 Cornucopian: People are the world’s
ultimate resource.
 Marxists: Poverty is the result of
distribution problems, not
overpopulation.
The Great Population Debate

The Great Population Debate Points of View

There is a Problem
 Malthusians: Population growth, which is
exponential, is limited by growth in the food
supply, which is arithmetic.
 Neo-Malthusians: In addition to food, other
factors (such as shortages of water and space)
impose limits on continued growth.
 Zero Population Growth: A halt in population
growth is needed
“The ‘Population Problem’ is a
Complex Issue”
Problems
are the result of unequal
distribution of resources and high
growth rates.
Over-consumption by slow-growth
countries is also problematic.
Factors Affecting Human
Population Size
Population change equation
P = P initial + (B - D) + (I – E) or
final
Population
Change
=
(Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)
Factors Affecting Human
Population Size
Crude birth rate (CBR)
(CBR): number of live births per 1,000
people
Crude death rate (CDR)
(CDR): number of deaths per 1,000 people
World Population
Population Growth
12
11
Population (billions)
10
9
8
High
High
10.6
Medium
Low
Medium
8.9
7
6
Low
7.2
5
4
3
2
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Year
2050
Carrying Capacity as Applied to
Human Populations

No standard carrying capacity equation
for humans
 Humans are classified geopolitically,
classifications which are ecologically
meaningless.
 Humans can raise carrying capacity of
environment through technology.
Carrying Capacity as Applied
to Human Populations



Quality of life (standard of living)
separates the calculation of carrying
capacity between humans and
nonhumans.
Cultural carrying capacity
When standards of living drop
dramatically, people may become
environmental refugees.
What Factors Affect Human
Growth Rates?

Fertility
 General fertility rate—number of
births per 1,000 women of
childbearing age per year (ages 1549)
 Age-specific fertility rate—number
of live births per 1,000 women of a
specific age group per year
What Factors Affect Human
Growth Rates?

Total fertility rate—average number
of children a woman will bear
throughout her life, based on the
current age-specific fertility rate and
assuming the current birth rate will
remain constant throughout her life
 Replacement fertility rate—fertility
rate needed to ensure that each set of
parents is “replaced” by their
offspring.
9 Factors Affecting Birth Rates
and Total Fertility Rates
 Children in Labor Force
 Cost of raising and educating children
 Availability of pension systems
 Urbanization
 Education and employment for women
 Infant mortality rate
 Average marrying age
 Abortion
 Availability of birth control
Factors Affecting Death Rates
 Infant
mortality rate (IMR)—
number of infants under one year of
age who die per 1,000 births each
year
 Childhood mortality rate (CMR)—
number of children between one
and five years of age who die per
1,000 births each year
Infant and Childhood Mortality

IMR is best single
indicator of a society’s
quality of life.
Infant and Childhood Mortality

Factors that contribute to
high IMR and CMR
include diarrhea (often
caused by disease-infested
water), improper
weaning, famine,
malnutrition, poor health
of mother, and
inadequate prenatal care.
Examples of age structure interaction
Click to view
animation.
Population Age Structure
Male
Female
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Ages 0-14
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 15-44
Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden
Ages 45-85+
Age Distribution

Graphically represented by
population profile
 Developing Countries have
pyramidal-shaped profile;
 Developed Countries have more
rectangular or columnar profile.
Age Distribution

Important indicator of future growth
rates
 Population momentum—occurs
when large numbers of young
people are present are in the
population, ensuring continued
growth even after fertility rates
drop
Age Distribution
Determines a nation’s dependency
load—the proportion of the
population below 15 or above 65
years of age
 Migration
 Actual rate of increase

Influencing Population Size
Migration
Environmental refugees
Reducing births
Family planning
Empowerment of women
Economic rewards and penalties
Number of legal immigrants (thousands)
2,000
1,800
1,600
1907
1,400
1,200
1,000
1914
New laws
restrict
immigration
800
600
400
Great
Depression
200
0
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010
Year
The Demographic Transition
Stage 2
Transindustrial
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
High
80
70
Fig. 10-20 p. 189
Relative population size
Birth rate and death rate
(number per 1,000 per year)
Stage 1
Preindustrial
60
50
Birth rate
40
30
Death rate
20
10
0
Total population
Low
Increasing Growth Very high Decreasing
Low
Zero
growth rate
growth rate
growth rate growth rate growth rate growth rate
Time
Low
Negative
growth rate
Demographic transition model interaction.
Click to view
animation.
How does population growth
affect economic development?


Every one percent increase in population
needs a three percent increase in GNP.
High growth rates of LDCs have
overwhelmed governments.
What Do Demographic Statistics
Tell About Quality of Life?

Population Density
 Urbanization
 Life Expectancy (at birth)
Cutting Global Population Growth
 Family planning
 Improve health care
 Elevate the status of women
 Increase education
 Involve men in parenting
 Reduce poverty
 Sustainability
If Women’s Status is Low:

Motherhood Only Option
 Birth Rates Rise
A women’s status is determined by:








Access to Education
Access to Adequate Health Care
Legal Rights
Maternal mortality ratio
Employment Opportunities Outside Home
Wage Earnings
Marriage Age
Number of Children
Births per thousand population
U.S. Birth Rates: 1910-2004
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
0
1910
End of World War II
Demographic
transition
1920
Depression
1930
1940
Baby boom
1950
1960
Baby bust
1970
Echo baby boom
1980
1990
2000
Year
2010
Average crude birth rate
Average crude death rate
World
21
9
All developed
countries
11
10
All developing
countries
24
8
Developing
countries
(w/o China)
27
9
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Africa
38
14
Latin
America
22
6
Asia
20
7
Oceania
18
7
United
States
14
8
North
America
14
8
Europe
10
12
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
China
1.3 billion
1.4 billion
India
1.1 billion
1.4 billion
USA
Indonesia
Brazil
294 million
349 million
219 million
308 million
179 million
211 million
Pakistan
159 million
229 million
Russia
144 million
137 million
Bangladesh
141 million
205 million
Japan
128 million
121 million
Nigeria
137 million
206 million
2004
2025
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
World
5 children per woman
2.8
Developed
countries
2.5
1.6
Developing
countries
6.5
3.1
Africa
6.6
5.1
Latin
America
5.9
2.6
Asia
5.9
2.6
Oceania
3.8
2.1
North
America
3.5
2.0
Europe
2.6
1.4
1950
2004
4.0
Births per woman
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.5
Baby boom
(1946-64)
1.0
Replacement
level
0.5
0
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
47 years
Life expectancy
77 years
8%
Married women working
outside the home
81%
15%
High school graduates
83%
10%
Homes with flush toilets
Homes with electricity
98%
2%
99%
10%
Living in suburbs
52%
1900
Hourly manufacturing job
wage (adjusted for inflation)
Homicides per
100,000 people
$3
2000
$15
1.2
5.8
Year
2100
2080
2060
2040
2020
2000
1980
1960
1940
300
1920
100
1900
Population in millions
600
571
500
400
292
Total population
200
76
Projections
United States
Mexico
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Canada
294 million
Population
(2004)
106 million
32 million
Projected
population
(2025)
Infant
mortality
rate
349 million
150million
36 million
6.7
25
5.2
77 years
75 years
79 years
Life
expectancy
2.0
Total fertility
rate (TFR)
2.8
1.7
21%
% population
under age 15
35%
18%
% population
over age 65
12%
5%
13%
Per capita
GDP PPP
$36,110
$8,790
$31,892
China: Slowing Population Growth
Economic incentives
Free medical care
Preferential treatment
Locally administered
Very intrusive and coercive
India: Slowing Population Growth
Generally disappointing results:
Poor planning
Bureaucratic inefficiency
Low status of women
Extreme poverty
Lack of support
India
China
Percentage
of world
population
17%
20%
Population
1.1 billion
1.3 billion
Population (2025)
(estimated)
1.4 billion
1.4 billion
Illiteracy (%of adults)
47%
17%
Population under age 15(%)
36%
22%
Population growth rate (%)
Total fertility rate
1.7%
0.6%
3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)
1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)
Infant mortality rate
64
32
Life expectancy
GDP PPP per capita
62 years
71 years
$2,650
$4,520