Transcript Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and the Issue of

The Human Population:
Growth, Demography, and
Carrying Capacity
Chapter 12
“The problems to be faced are vast and complex, but come
down to this: 6.2 billion people are breeding exponentially.
The process of fulfilling their wants and needs is stripping
earth of its biotic capacity to produce life; a climactic burst of
consumption by a single species is overwhelming the skies,
earth, waters, and fauna”
Paul Hawken
Key Concepts
Factors affecting human population size
Human population problems
Managing population growth
Factors Affecting Human Population Size
Population change equation
Population Change = (Birth
+Immigration) – (Death – Emigration)
Zero population growth (ZPG)
Crude birth rate (BR)
Crude death rate (DR)
Natural Rate of Increase
Annual world
population growth
<1%
1-1.9%
2-2.9%
3+%
Data not
available
Fertility Rates
Replacement level fertility
Births per woman
<2
4-4.9
2-2.9
5+
3-3.9
No
Data
Total fertility rate (TFR)
Factors Affecting BR and TFR
Births per thousand population
See bulleted list in text pg. 259
US BR’s and TFR’s
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
0
1910
End of World War II
Demographic
transition
1920
Depression
1930
1940
Baby boom
1950
1960
Year
Baby bust
1970
Echo baby boom
1980
1990
2000
2010
Factors Affecting DR
Life Expectancy
Infant deaths
per 1,000 live births
<10
<10-35
<36-70
<71-100
<100+
Data not
available
Infant mortality rate (IMR)
Factors Affecting Natural Rate of Increase
Rate of natural increase = crude birth rate – crude death rate
50
40
Rate per 1,000 people
50
Rate of
natural increase
30
Crude
birth rate
20
Crude
death rate
10
0
17751800
1850
1900
1950
Crude
birth rate
40
30
Crude
death rate
Rate of
natural
increase
20
10
2000
2050
0
17751800
Fig. 12-17 p. 262
1850
1900 1950
Year
2000
© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
Developing Countries
Developed Countries
2050
Population Age Structure
Male
Female
Rapid Growth
Guatemala
Nigeria
Saudi Arabia
Ages 0-14
Slow Growth
United States
Australia
Canada
Ages 15-44
Zero Growth
Spain
Austria
Greece
Negative Growth
Germany
Bulgaria
Sweden
Ages 45-85+
Solutions: Influencing Population
Size
Migration
Environmental Refugees
Reducing Births
Family Planning
Empowerment of women
Economic rewards and penalties
The Demographic Transition
Stage 2
Transindustrial
Stage 3
Industrial
Stage 4
Postindustrial
High
80
70
Relative population size
Birth rate and death rate
(number per 1,000 per year)
Stage 1
Preindustrial
60
50
Birth rate
40
30
Death rate
20
10
0
Total population
Low
Increasing Growth Very high Decreasing
Low
Zero
growth rate
growth rate
growth rate growth rate growth rate growth rate
Time
Low
Negative
growth rate
Case Study: Slowing Population
Growth in India
Generally disappointing results:
Poor planning
Bureaucratic inefficiency
Low status of women
Extreme poverty
Lack of support
Case Study: Slowing Population
Growth In China
Generally Positive Results:
Economic incentives
Free medical care
Preferential treatment
Intrusive and coercive
Locally administered
Cutting Global Population Growth
Family Planning
Reduce poverty
Elevate the status of women