Transcript Diapositiva 1

MAIN DRIVERS OF
SEABORNE TRANSPORT
Marina Zanne, M.Sc.
[email protected]
Introduction
International trade - exchange
of capital, goods, and services across
borders
The exploitation of interregional advanatges
Westline – 5000 years of
maritime trading centres
7. Bristish domination
of trade; 1735
6. Dutch domination
of trade; 1650
5.Hanseatic league;
1400
11. China emerges as
a major economic power;
1994 -
10. S. Korean
Economic growth;
1973 - 1986
8. Growing power of
N. America; 1880 - 1950
9. Japanease
economic
Growth; 1950 -1970
4. Venice domination
1000
3. Roman era;
100 BC
2. Greek era;
300 BC
Stopford M. (2009): Maritime economics, p. 6
1. Phoenicnian era;
2000-3000 BC
Development of international
trade
• Restrictions to trade  Bilateral agreements
• GATT – General agreement on trade and tariffs (in the
late 1940s); mechanism designed to provide a
framework of rules and a forum to negotiate trade barrier
reductions among nations; trade round were organized
under GATT; GATT was not a treaty  the necessity of
formal international organization 
• WTO was established during Uruguay Round (19861993); reduction in trading costs by 40%  increased
economic liberalisation  free trade
Why trading?
Costs
A – place of production
B – place of consumption
C – cost price at the place of production
D – selling price at the place of production
E – last acceptible price at the palce of
consumption (this would be the sellingprice
if the good was produce at place B)
H – price at place B when transport is not
efficient
J – price at place B when transport is
efficient
Distance
Top trading
nations & top
trading
commodities
Wikipedia (October 2010)
Seaborne trade
• Shipping routes reflect world trade
flows  cca 90% of international
trade is done by sea  competitive
freight costs (growing efficiency of
maritime transport)  Globalization
 in 2008 cca 8 billion tons of cargo
were transported over the sea
Seaborne trade
• More than 3.000 commercial sea ports & around
50.000 merchant ships registered in more than
150 countries carry out more than 8 billion tons
of cargo per year
Trade flows in 2004
Počuča, Zanne: Globalization, international trade and maritime transport, ICTS 2006
International seaborne trade by
region and commodity type
(2005)
Stopford M. (2009):
Maritime economics,
p. 349
The changing pattern and
structure of trade
Počuča, Zanne: Globalization, international trade and maritime transport, ICTS 2006
The changing structure of international trade
forced the changes in the merchant fleet.
The changing structure of trade
Year
Crude
oil
Oil
products
Iron ore
Coal
Grain
Other
cargo
Total
trade
Anual
growth
2009*
2.007
595
890
870
357
3.268
7.987
0,71%
2008
1.930
560
858
830
344
3.409
7.931
4,74%
2007
1.888
535
799
798
332
3.220
7.572
5,24%
2006
1.851
517
734
754
325
3.014
7.195
7,07%
2005
1.784
495
652
710
310
2.769
6.720
3,50%
2004
1.754
461
589
664
236
2.789
6.493
5,87%
2003
1.673
440
524
619
240
2.637
6.133
9,62%
2002
1.588
414
484
570
245
2.294
5.595
1,49%
2001
1.592
425
452
565
234
2.245
5.513
1,45%
2000
1.608
419
454
523
230
2.200
5.434
3,30%
1995
1.415
381
402
423
196
1.870
4.687
3,34%
1990
1.190
336
347
342
192
1.570
3.977
3,85%
1985
871
288
321
272
181
1.360
3.293
-1,80%
1980
1.320
276
314
188
198
1.310
3.606
3,43%
1975
1.263
233
292
127
137
995
3.047
The changing structure of trade
http://www.marisec.org
(October 2010)
Development of world seaborne
tarde (billion ton miles)
Branch A. E.: Elements of shipping (8th ed.), Routledge, 2007
Market cycles
Stopford M. (2009): Maritime economics, p. 97
Maritime industry during last crisis
• lower demand  lower freight &
charter rates
• ships have been slowed down,
laid-up or scraped  scrap metal
price fell
• less or dropped orders
»
»
Maritime industry during last
crisis
Conclusions
Shipping (maritime) industry made globalization possible
(among others) and probably benefits from globalization
more than almost any other sector.
Shipping industry carries out majority of international trade
and it literally makes possible the life as we know today,
and which we take for granted. However, this
interdependence of international trade and seaborne
trade makes shipping industry more vulnerable to
economic crisis.
Conclusions
The demand for maritime transportation is a
derived one; it derives from the needs of
economy and society. That’s why the shipping
industry records significant oscilations.
Sources& further reading
• Stopford M.: Maritime economics, London, Routledge
(2009 – 3rd ed. or 1997 – 2nd ed.)
• The role of changing transport costs and technology in
industrial relocation, OECD Report, 2005
• Počuča M., Zanne M.: Globalization, international trade
and maritime transport, ICTS 2006
• Počuča M., Zanne M.: The impact of global economic
crisis on the dry bulk shipping industry, Pomorstvo, god.
23, br. 2 (2009)
Sources& further reading
• Korean Maritime Insitute, http://www.kmi.re.kr
(October 2010)
• Shipping and world trade,
http://www.marisec.org (October 2010)
• UNCTAD Review of Maritime transport,
http://www.unctad.org (October 2010)