Transcript Poland within the Socialist Economy

Cracow University of Economics
Poland
“Sources of Real GDP per Capita Growth:
Polish Regional-Macroeconomic Dimensions 2000-2005”
- Keynote Speech Presented by:
Dr. David Clowes
The Growth Research Unit,
Cracow University of Economics, Poland.
www.gru.uek.krakow.pl
Overview
Real GDP/Capita is the market value of goods and services
available to a country’s citizens and as such is regarded as the best
measure of welfare.
The Case
Earlier research on growth performance across Poland’s sixteen regions
has highlighted the presence of serious economic disparities, especially
down the Eastern wall of the country.
Objective
The aim of this study is to show that a process of convergence between
the Eastern regions of the country and the comparatively better
developed Western regions has been initiated.
Methodology: The Decomposition Technique
Regional Welfare (Real GDP Capita)
Distribution Effects (2005)
98.5
POMORSKIE
Polish Real GDP/Capita
= 25,228 PLN (100%)
WARMIŃSKO-MAZURSKIE
ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE
93.1
90.0
76.3
KUJAWSKO
-POMORSKIE
WIELKOPOLSKIE
MAZOWIECKIE
ŁÓDZKIE
LUBELSKIE
Causes & Effects?
68.4
82.9
OPOLSKIE
Eastern wall regions
at least 25% behind
the national level
158.1
92.1
103.2
DOLNOŚLĄSKIE
74.1
87.2
9
106.7
LUBUSKIE
PODLASKIE
ŚWIETOKRZYSKIE
108.4
74.6
PODKARPACKIE
ŚLĄSKIE
MAŁOPOLSKIE
Poland A  80% of National Level
Poland B  80% of National Level
85.1
68.8
Are Eastern wall
regions showing any
signs of convergence?
Measuring Convergence in Welfare
Chosen Methodology
Decomposition Technique for
Real GDP Capita
gdp
gdp
hours
employment pop15





15
pop
hours
employment
pop
pop
Where:
GDP = gross domestic product
Pop = total population
Hours = total number of hours worked
Employment = number of people employed
Pop15 = Population of working age (aged 15 and above)
Polish Real GDP Capita Decomposed
Average Annual Percentage Change (2000-2005)
Output (%)
20
The sum of the four given components of real GDP/capita
grew by 13% on average between 2000 & 2005.
GDP/Hours
16.8%
15
10
Pop15/Population
5
Hours/empl.
Empl./Pop15
-2.7%
-0.9%
0.39%
0
-5
Labour
Productivity
© Clowes, 2007.
Work Effort
Employment
Rate
Demographic
Factor
Regional Growth in Labour Productivity (%)
Fastest Growing Regions in Total Percentage Terms 2000-2005
Rank 3
65.9
POMORSKIE
WARMIŃSKO-MAZURSKIE
ZACHODNIOPOMORSKIE
42.8
Polish Labour Productivity
PODLASKIE
grew by a total 84.3%
146.1
between 2000-2005
97.1
KUJAWSKO
-POMORSKIE
51.2
81.5
Rank 1
MAZOWIECKIE
74.1
WIELKOPOLSKIE
58.8
LUBUSKIE
ŁÓDZKIE
LUBELSKIE
62.2
58.3
DOLNOŚLĄSKIE
> 85%
80.6
85.0
61.9
OPOLSKIE
ŚWIETOKRZYSKIE
71.3
< 85%
Rank 4
55.4
PODKARPACKIE
ŚLĄSKIE
MAŁOPOLSKIE
67.3
97.9
Rank 2
Sources of Labour Productivity Growth
Sectoral Shifts in Employment in % (2001-2005)
2001
Region/sector
2005
Farming,
Industry,
Farming,
Industry,
Forrestry & Building & Services Forrestry & Building & Services
fishing Construction
fishing Construction
POLAND
19.3
28.6
52.0
17.4
29.2
53.4
Podlaskie
Podkarpackie
Warmińsko-mazurskie
Lubelskie
Świętokrzyskie
36.5
30.8
17.9
39.4
31.0
18.6
28.2
28.1
18.1
24.9
45.0
41.1
54.0
42.5
44.2
34.4
25.6
16.4
35.9
33.2
20.7
28.3
30.4
19.3
22.5
44.9
46.0
53.2
44.8
44.2
Mazowieckie
Śląskie
Wielkopolskie
Dolnośląskie
20.4
4.1
20.3
9.5
21.6
39.5
32.7
32.4
58.0
56.4
47.0
58.2
15.9
4.3
16.5
8.5
21.7
38.8
34.8
33.0
62.4
56.8
48.8
58.4
Regional Welfare 2005
Relationship between hours worked & real output per head
Poland: Hours = 1,490 GDP/Capita = 25,228
Mazowieckie: Hours = 1,391 GDP/Capita = 39,902
40,000
Mazowieckie
Podlaskie: Hours = 1,835 GDP/Capita = 18,715
GDP per Capita
35,000
30,000
Sląskie
Dolnosląskie
25,000
Łódzkie
20,000
Lubuskie
Kujaw sko-Pomorskie
Świętokrzyskie
1,300
Pomorskie
Poland
15,000
1,200
Wielkopolskie
1,400
Zachodnio-Pomorskie
Małopolskie
Opolskie
Podlaskie
WarmińskoLubelskie
Mazurskie Podkarpackie
1,500
1,600
Hours
1,700
1,800
1,900
Concluding Points
The convergence of Eastern wall regions towards national levels
has commenced for the first time in the country’s history and the
source of this growth is labour productivity, which is consistent
with observed shifts in the structure of employment.
Support Factors
I. Investment Inflows
II. Trends Moving East
Region
Labour Productivity
per Capita 2000-2005 (PLN)
Labour Productivity Growth
(%) 2000-2005
Podkarpackie
12,112
97.9% (2)
Lubelskie
12,718
84.7% (4)
Podlaskie
13,669
146.1% (1)
Warmińsko-Mazurskie
13,961
97.1% (3)
Świętokrzyskie
14,119
55.4% (15)
Opolskie
15,763
61.9% (12)
Małopolskie
16,863
67.3% (9)
Kujawsko-Pomorskie
17,196
51.2% (16)
Lubuskie
18,217
81.5% (6)
Zachodniopomorskie
18,366
42.8% (17)
Łódzkie
19,003
62.2% (11)
Pomorskie
19,695
65.9% (10)
Poland
20,656
84.3% (5)
Dolnośląskie
21,286
58.3% (14)
Wielkopolskie
22,501
58.8% (13)
Śląskie
22,713
71.3% (8)
Mazowieckie
35,709
80.6% (7)