Transcript Who is leaving? Potential emigration from Bulgaria in the

CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
14th February 2014
Economic Research Institute at BAS
Aksakov str. No 3, Sofia
NEW EVIDENCES ON POTENTIAL AND RETURN
MIGRATION FROM/TO BULGARIA:
MAIN DESTINATIONS AND REMITTANCE BEHAVIOR
Vesselin Mintchev
Fieldwork
“Family Patterns and Migration”, UNFPA / BUL1P201 - Sample 2725
“Bulgarian Diaspora in Western Europe” , National Science Fund of
Bulgaria / Contract № DID 02/21 – Sample 1204
„Migration and Transnationalism Between Switzerland and
Bulgaria”, BRSP – 2011-2016 / Contract № IZEBZ0_142979 – Sample
3907
Team: “Bulgarian Diaspora in Western Europe”
ERI at the BAS
Other affiliations
•
•
•
•
• Evgenia Markova /
London Metropolitan
University
• Iordan Kaltchev / SWU Blagoevgrad
• Valentin Goev / UNWE
• Venelin Boshnakov /
UNWE
• Mihaela Misheva /
UNWE
• Martin Dimov / UNWE
Vesselin Mintchev
Iskra Balkanska
Irena Zareva
Dimitar Statev
Team: „Migration and Transnationalism Between
Switzerland and Bulgaria”
ERI at the BAS and ASA
Universities of Friburg and
Lugano
•
•
•
•
• Michael Nollert
• Marina Richter
• Paolo Ruspini
Vesselin Mintchev
Docho Mihailov
Georgi Spopov
Venelin Boshnakov /
UNWE
• Iordan Kaltchev / SWU Blagoevgrad
• Dochka Velkova
• Konstantin
Konstantinov
Migration potential – instrument
How likely is it in the near
future to:
Go abroad to work
for a few months
Go abroad to work
for more than 1 year
Emigrate to another country
Not likely
Little
likely
Somewhat
Very likely
likely
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
When do you think your intentions can be realized?
In the next 5-6 months
1
In the next 12 months
2
In the next 2-3 years
3
In a more distant future
4
Migration potential - 2007
2007
Pop15-60: 4,858m
Short term
Long term
Settlers
Total
Over the next 5-6 months
0,8%
0,9%
0,4%
2,1
Until the end of the year
1,7%
2,1%
0,8%
4,6
Over the next 2-3 years
2,3%
2,3%
1,8%
6,4
In the distant future
2,4%
1,4%
1,7%
5,4
7,2%
6,7%
4,7%
18,6
121 223
144 398
60 611
326 2
In 1-year horizon:
Migration potential - 2011
2011
Pop15-60: 4,617m
Short term
Long term
Settlers
Total
Over the next 5-6 months
1,0%
1,2%
2,4%
4,7%
Until the end of the year
1,0%
2,1%
2,0%
5,1%
Over the next 2-3 years
2,2%
3,6%
3,2%
9,1%
In the distant future
1,1%
1,6%
1,3%
4,0%
5,3%
8,5%
9,0%
22,8%
92 037
153 395
203 249
In 1-year horizon
448 68
Migration potential - 2013
2013
Pop15-60: 4,374m
Short term
Long term
Settlers
Total
Over the next 5-6 months
1.7%
1.9%
2.5%
6.1
Until the end of the year
1.1%
1.7%
2.0%
4.9
Over the next 2-3 years
1.3%
2.1%
1.6%
5.0
In the distant future
1.0%
1.1%
1.5%
3.6
5.2%
6.8%
7.6%
19.6
125 396
157 864
197 050
In 1-year horizon
480 31
Migration potential 2013 – regional dimension
In 1-year horizon Short term
Long term
Settlers
% of po
15-60
Total
North-West
13 259
17 338
11 219
41 816
9.2
North-Central
10 870
25 002
22 828
58 700
11.9
North-East
17 999
16 874
51 747
86 619
14.9
South-West
45 770
31 687
31 687
109 144
8.2
South-Central
23 565
49 373
31 419
104 357
11.8
South-East
14 401
16 616
47 633
78 650
12.5
125 396
157 864
197 050
480 310
11.0
Total
Migration potential /gross %/
Migration potential /1-year horizon/
Migration potential (%)
/total potential vs.1-year horizon of intentions/
Migration potential (numbers)
/total potential vs.1-year horizon of intentions/
Migration potential - what happens?
• Stabilization of the migration potential of the
country at (relatively) high level?
• Increased desire for resettlement?
• “Short-term” or “circular” migration?
Main Destinations – 2007
(in %)
Short term Long term
Settlers
Total
Spain
10,3
19,8
32,4
17,4
Greece
19,1
14,8
8,8
15,5
Germany
11,8
11,1
14,7
12,1
United Kingdom
8,8
9,9
11,8
9,2
USA
4,4
6,2
11,8
6,8
11,8
2,5
2,9
6,8
Italy
4,4
7,4
5,8
France
2,9
3,7
3,4
Cyprus
2,9
3,7
2,9
Belgium
2,9
2,5
2,4
Turkey
Main Destinations – 2011
( in %)
Short term
Long term
Settlers
Total
United Kingdom
26,1
10,3
28,6
21,7
Germany
13,0
28,2
16,3
20,8
Spain
8,7
15,4
12,2
11,7
Greece
4,3
15,4
4,1
8,3
USA
8,7
5,1
6,1
5,8
France
4,3
2,6
4,1
5,0
Italy
8,7
5,1
2,0
4,2
Cyprus
4,3
2,6
4,1
3,3
2,6
2,0
2,5
6,1
2,5
Netherlands
Switzerland
Main Destinations – 2013
( in %)
Germany
UK
Spain
Greece
Italy
USA
France
Belgium
Austria
Turkey
Short term
28.0
19.6
7.5
7.5
10.3
5.6
2.8
3.7
0.9
2.8
Long term
28.5
21.2
7.3
5.8
8.8
2.9
3.6
4.4
1.5
1.5
Settlers
Total
32.4
13.9
9.2
8.7
2.9
6.9
2.3
1.2
5.2
2.9
29.1
18.0
7.8
7.2
6.3
5.4
3.5
3.0
2.8
2.6
Is there a change in
preferred destinations?
2007
2011
2013
Spain
Greece
United Kingdom
Germany
Germany
Spain
United Kingdom
Spain
United Kingdom
USA
Greece
USA
Greece
Italy
Turkey
Italy
France
Italy
USA
France
France
Cyprus
Belgium
Cyprus
Belgium
Netherlands
Switzerland
Austria
Turkey
Germany
Main Destinations 2013 / NUTS2
%
Germany
UK
Spain
Greece
Italy
USA
France
Belgium
Austria
Turkey
Switzerland
The Netherlands
NW
34.1
6.8
11.4
11.4
20.5
2.3
NC
NE
SW
28.1 34.5 22.9
21.1 13.1 21.1
5.3
6.0
7.3
3.5
4.8
7.3
1.8
6.0
7.3
8.8
3.6
9.2
7.0
2.4
2.8
8.8
2.4
3.7
5.3
2.4
0.9
1.8
7.1
1.8
1.8
6.0
2.8
3.6
2.8
SC
31.9
21.3
5.3
1.1
3.2
6.4
5.3
3.2
2.1
1.1
2.1
2.1
SE
Tota
26.0 29
19.2 18
13.7
7
17.8
7
4.1
6
1.4
5
1.4
3
3
6.8
2
2.7
2
1.4
2
1
Why departing – 2013 / 1 /?
How important is for you each of the
following reasons to go abroad?
Living at higher standard
Higher pay
Better professional realization
Provide support to my family / relatives in BG
Provide desired education for me/my children
Marriage / Partnership
Family reunion (to join relatives)
Follow a spouse/child/relative
Obtain foreign citizenship
Just do not want to live in BG any more
Not at
all
1.7
1.2
8.3
6.5
21.0
66.9
49.8
53.4
46.2
20.3
Not
much Neither Imporimpornor
tant
tant
1.3
1.5
9.7
6.6
9.2
12.0
14.0
9.6
13.3
10.0
6.7
3.9
17.9
11.8
13.3
10.0
9.9
10.3
18.0
31.0
30.1
17.2
23.5
26.1
19.5
5.9
13.3
13.8
12.5
19.9
Ver
imp
tan
60
76
40
49
37
1
1
1
18
Why departing / 2 /?
• Short vs long-term economic reasons?
• Career and family reasons - to a lesser
extent in 2011 compared with 2007 –
but “rehabilitated” in 2013?
Why departing / 3 /?
Just do not want to live anymore in Bulgaria (in %)
2007
2011
2013
25,5
12,3
20,
6,8
10,2
10,
Neither important nor
unimportant
27,7
23,9
31,
Important
20,9
26,4
19,
Very important
19,1
27,1
18,
100,0
100,0
100,
Not important at all
Not very important
Total
Return and current migrants: Preliminary Estimates
2007
Relative share of households with
return migrants
2011
2013
10.1%
13.7%
Number of households with
return migrants
294 345
411 896
439 70
Return migrants per 1 hh
0.133
0.158
0.21
384 494
474 304
655 67
7.4%
7.1%
Number of households with
current migrants
213 908
212 189
326 28
Current migrants per 1 hh
0.097
0.090
0.15
280 435
269 604
483 99
Number of return migrants
Relative share of households with
current migrants
Number of current migrants
14.5
10.7
EARNINGS WHEN ABROAD
How much were approximately
your monthly earnings during
your stay abroad ?
2007
2011
2013
(prelimina
Up to 400 EUR
Over 400 to 800 EUR
18.6%
34.0%
9.5%
33.6%
0.5
4.3
Over 800 to 1200 EUR
31.4%
36.2%
22.2
Over 1200 to 1600 EUR
8.3%
7.7%
14.7%
6.0%
19.1
23.7
897
30.1
1 60
Over 1600 to 2000 EUR
Over 2000 EUR
Average (EUR):
810
Remittances – Preliminary Estimates
Annual average (last 5 years)
2007
2011
2013
810.3
13.8
896.6
18.2
1606.
14.
1 294
1 170
2 64
860
1 545
3 12
44.3%
31.2%
37.2%
Average annual remittances,
return migrants (million EUR)
381
482
1 16
Average annual remittances,
current migrants (million EUR)
277
248
57
Average annual remittances, total
(million EUR)
658
730
1 74
Average monthly income (EUR)
Average length of stay (months)
Average annual transfer to
1 return migrant household (EUR)
Average annual income abroad
of return migrants (million EUR)
Share of remittances
Savings and Remittances:
WHAT HAPPENS?
• Increased average earnings of recent Bulgarian
returnees
• Length of stay abroad, on average: 12–18 months
• In 2011 the estimated remittances of Bulgarians
abroad (730 mln.EUR) are quite close to the official
(BNB: 620 million EUR, annual average, 2006-2010)
• In 2013 – estimated remittances (1,742 mln.EUR) are
much higher (BNB: 740 mln.EUR, avg.2008-2012)
Attitudes toward international migration in Bulgaria
Many foreigners come to live and work in our country.
What is your opinion on this?
2001
N
2007
%
2011
N
%
N
%
They will help the
development of the country
1773
6,9
298
10,9
112
9,3
Everyone has the right to
live / work wherever
he/she wishes
13208
51,7
1486
54,5
723
60,0
The presence of foreigners
in the country should be
limited
4421
17,3
383
14,1
162
13,5
Do not know
5486
21,5
536
19,7
178
14,8
No answers
654
2,6
22
0,8
29
2,4
25542
100,0
2725
100,0
1204
100,0
Total
Attitudes toward international migration in BG
Many foreigners come to live and work in our country.
What is your opinion on this?
N
% of
responses
% of
cases
They will help the development of
the country
1155
16.6
30.6
Everyone has the right to live /
work wherever he/she wishes
3380
48.5
89.7
The presence of foreigners in the
country should be limited
2440
35.0
64.7
Total: 6975
100.0
185.0
2013 - Valid cases: 3770
Attitudes towards the international
migration in Bulgaria – 2013
Everyone has
the right to live /
work wherever
he/she wishes
Nonmobile
Return
migrant
(14.3%)
should be limited
Yes
Total
No
31.8
86.
3.3
13.
Total:
55.0
9.9
64.9
35.1
100.
44.3
88.
3.5
11.
Total:
44.4
7.8
52.3
47.7
100.
Yes
No
(85.7%)
The presence of
foreigners in the country
Yes
No
CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
14th February 2014
Economic Research Institute at BAS
Aksakov str. No 3, Sofia
Thank you!
Благодаря!