Transcript az379555.vo.msecnd.net

The Recruitment Industry 2020
How will the Industry and Job Boards Evolve?
John Nurthen
Executive Director, Global Research
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Agenda
• The Recruitment Industry
• The Job Board Industry
• Key Trends
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Staffing Market Foundations
1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s
UK
US
Netherlands
France
Belgium
Switzerland
Hong Kong
Australia
Ireland
India
Brazil
Japan
Germany
Sweden
Italy
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Global Staffing Market Revenue of €304bn
in 2013
Countries and regions are to scale
Europe
North
America
South
America
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Africa &
Middle
East
Asia
Pacific
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Global Staffing Market Revenue of €304bn
in 2013
Countries and regions are to scale
NL
CA
BE
UK
FR
DE
CH
CN
US
IT
JP
IN
BR
SA
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
AU
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Europe: Mostly a Commercial Staffing Market
Professional/Commercial Temporary Staffing Mix 2013
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Commercial
Professional
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Largest Global Staffing Firms by 2013 Revenue
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Company
Adecco
Randstad
ManpowerGroup
Allegis
Recruit
Hays
Kelly Services
Robert Half
USG People
Tempstaff
Express Employment Professionals
Insperity
ADP (Automatic Data Processing)
The Select Family of Companies
Synergie
Volt Information Sciences
Impellam
Pasona
Skilled Group
Groupe Crit
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
HQ
Country
CH
NL
US
US
JP
UK
US
US
NL
JP
US
US
US
US
FR
US
UK
JP
AU
FR
2013
Revenue €m
19,509.3
16,568.3
15,014.1
7,865.3
4,635.6
4,345.8
4,077.1
2,799.7
2,254.0
2,029.0
1,839.7
1,581.7
1,565.8
1,526.5
1,519.7
1,430.9
1,421.5
1,413.6
1,317.2
1,299.8
Market
Share %
6.1%
5.2%
4.7%
2.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
0.9%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
Prior year
Rank
Listed
1
Y
2
Y
3
Y
4
5
6
Y
7
Y
9
Y
8
Y
10
Y
12
13
Y
20
15
19
Y
14
Y
17
Y
11
Y
18
Y
21
Y
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Largest Listed Staffing Firms by Market Cap
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Company
Recruit
Adecco
Randstad
Robert Half
ManpowerGroup
Hays
Tempstaff
Page Group
On Assignment
Korn/Ferry
Brunel International
TrueBlue
Meitec
USG People
SThree
AMN Healthcare
Insperity
Kforce
Groupe Crit
Kelly Services
Company Website
www.recruit-rgf.com
www.adecco.com
www.randstad.com
www.roberthalf.com
www.manpowergroup.com
www.haysplc.com
www.tempstaff.co.jp
www.page.com
www.onassignment.com
www.kornferry.com
www.brunel.nl
www.trueblue.com
www.meitec.co.jp
www.usgpeople.com
www.sthree.com
www.amnhealthcare.com
www.insperity.com
www.kforce.com
www.groupe-crit.com
www.kellyservices.com
*Recruit Market Cap based on closing day of IPO, 16 October 2014
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
HQ
Country
JP
CH
NL
US
US
UK
JP
UK
US
US
NL
US
JP
NL
UK
US
US
US
FR
US
Market Cap
(€ Million)
at 1 October 2014*
14,055
9,555
6,534
5,164
4,262
2,054
1,867
1,693
1,123
951
904
788
777
745
567
557
541
488
468
454
Change
2014/2013
(1 October)
-6.9%
-12.4%
21.8%
-4.7%
-1.0%
39.5%
-12.6%
-19.8%
15.4%
-6.9%
1.9%
14.4%
24.1%
1.8%
14.7%
-29.3%
4.5%
59.6%
-27.6%
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
• Adcorp
• Air Energi
• DPA Group
• Groupe Crit
• Impellam
• NGS Group
• PeopleStrong
• Randstad
• Recruit
• Synergie
• Work Service
A New Wave of M&A?
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Staffing Market Forecasts
Country
2014 GDP
Forecast
2014 Staffing
Market Growth
Forecast
2015 GDP
Forecast
2015 Staffing
Market Growth
Forecast
UK
+3.2%
+9%
+2.7%
+7%
Germany
+1.4%
+8%
+1.5%
+9%
France
+0.4%
+3%
+1.0%
+4%
Netherlands
+0.6%
+4%
+1.4%
+5%
Europe
+1.4%
+8%
+1.8%
+9%
Japan
+0.9%
+9%
+0.8%
+9%
Australia
+2.8%
+2%
+2.9%
+2%
Brazil
+0.3%
-1%
+1.4%
+2%
South Africa
+1.4%
+17%
+2.3%
+16%
USA
+2.2%
+6%
+3.1%
+6%
Global
+3.3%
+6%
+3.8%
+7%
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts and IMF
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
‘Big Three’ Growth Trends
Average Organic Revenue Trend: Adecco, ManpowerGroup, Randstad (unweighted)
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
4Q09
3Q09
2Q09
1Q09
4Q08
3Q08
2Q08
1Q08
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
‘Big Three’ Growth Trends
Average Organic Revenue Trend: Adecco, ManpowerGroup, Randstad (unweighted)
Q2 =
+5.2%
Q3 =
Q1 = +4.2%
+4.3%
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
Q4 =
+2.3%
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
4Q14
3Q14
2Q14
1Q14
4Q13
3Q13
2Q13
1Q13
4Q12
3Q12
2Q12
1Q12
4Q11
3Q11
2Q11
1Q11
4Q10
3Q10
2Q10
1Q10
4Q09
3Q09
2Q09
1Q09
4Q08
3Q08
2Q08
1Q08
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Agenda
• The Recruitment Industry
• The Job Board Industry
• Key Trends
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Global Job Board Market
• Estimates for size of the global job board market vary from
$27bn to $3bn
– Linkedin ‘addressable market’ estimated at $27bn
• A tenth of the size of the global staffing market at most
• Digital recruitment up +25% in the UK in 12 months to March
2014*
• Facing competition from various sources**
–
–
–
–
–
Other employment-related websites
Niche career websites targeted at specific verticals
Job aggregator websites
Traditional media companies, including newspapers
Internet portals, search engines and general interest websites such as blogs
Sources: *Deloitte, **Monster
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Largest Job Boards by Revenue
Rank Company
HQ Country
Annual Revenue Reporting Period
(USD million)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Recruit (Indeed, Rijunabi, Hatalike, etc)*
Linkedin (Talent Solutions)
Monster
Seek (including Zaopin, JobsDB, Bdjobs, etc)
Gannet Media (Careerbuilder)*
Axel Springer (Stepstone, Totaljobs, etc)*
51job
Dice
Craigslist*
The Ladders*
Japan
US
US
Australia
US
Germany
China
US
US
US
$2,400
$856
$808
$670
$500
$350
$278
$213
$81
$80
Year ending 30/9/14
Year ended 31/12/13
Year ended 31/12/13
Year ended 30/6/14
Year ended 31/12/13
Year ended 31/12/13
Year ended 31/12/13
Year ended 31/12/13
Year ended 31/12/13
Year ended 31/12/12
11
12
13
14
15
InfoEdge
JobStreet**
Beyond
Jobindex
Jobs2Careers
India
Malaysia
US
Denmark
US
$56
$54
$36
$25
$22
Year ended 31/3/14
Year ended 31/12/13
Year ended 31/12/13
Year ended 31/12/13
Year ended 31/12/13
16
NetJobs
Sweden
$6
Year ended 31/12/13
*Our estimates **Acquired by Seek on 21 November 2014
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Top 10 Reasons for Using Job Boards
In general, which of the following criteria are most important to your clients with
regard to using or renewing your job board’s services? (Select the top 3)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Quality of
Applicants
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Price
Quantity of Number of
Applicants
hires
Cost per
hire
Site traffic Integration
wth
employer's
ATS
Ability to
search
resume
bank
Cost per
applicant
Ability to
create an
employer
brand
Source: The Job Board Doctor, 2014
Perceived Threats to Job Boards
Which of the following do you see as the most significant threats to your job board
in the coming 12 to 24 months? (check all that apply)
60%
40%
20%
0%
UK (94 responses)
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Europe (50 responses)
Rest of World (177 responses)
Source: The Job Board Doctor, 2013
Agenda
• The Recruitment Industry
• The Job Board Industry
• Key Trends
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
More
sophisticated
customers
expecting
more
sophisticated
solutions
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Evolving Contingent Workforce Models
Managed Service
Provider (MSP)
Master Vendor
Preferred Suppliers
Decentralized
• Selective set of
suppliers selected
• Several suppliers
• Contracts in place
• Procurement done • Service level
on an ad-hoc basis
agreements (SLA’s)
• Management done
in place
internally
• One supplier
(possibly managing
second and third
tier suppliers)
• One point of
contact
• Direct cost savings
on bill rate and
usage
• Customized SLA’s
and process
• Contingent
workforce spend
under management
• One point of
contact
• Direct cost savings
on bill rate and
usage
• Customized SLA’s
and process
• Non-compliant
spend elimination
• Total cost of
ownership savings
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
2012/2013 Growth in MSP Spend by Country
Australia
+2%
France
+3%
Ireland
+7%
Netherlands
+8%
UK
+11%
US
+19%
+28%
India
+32%
Spain
+34%
Japan
Canada
+40%
Belgium
+44%
+86%
Germany
0%
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
A Contingent Work World of Complete
Information Transparency
Perfect information on…
• Talent availability
• Skills
• Employee ratings and reviews
• Employer ratings and reviews
• Fit and success in a role
• Costs and rates
• Speed and efficiency
• Sources of talent
• Worker productivity correlated with what they ate for
breakfast!
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Evolving Contingent Workforce Models
Managed Service
Provider (MSP)
Master Vendor
Preferred Suppliers
Decentralized
• Selective set of
suppliers selected
• Several suppliers
• Contracts in place
• Procurement done • Service level
on an ad-hoc basis
agreements (SLA’s)
• Management done
in place
internally
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
• One supplier
(possibly managing
second and third
tier suppliers)
• One point of
contact
• Direct cost savings
on bill rate and
usage
• Customized SLA’s
and process
?
• Contingent
workforce spend
under management
• One point of
contact
• Direct cost savings
on bill rate and
usage
• Customized SLA’s
and process
• Non-compliant
spend elimination
• Total cost of
ownership savings
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Evolving Contingent Workforce Models
Total Talent
Management
Master Vendor
Preferred Suppliers
Decentralized
• Selective set of
suppliers selected
• Several suppliers
• Contracts in place
• Procurement done • Service level
on an ad-hoc basis
agreements (SLA’s)
• Management done
in place
internally
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
• One supplier
(possibly managing
second and third
tier suppliers)
• One point of
contact
• Direct cost savings
on bill rate and
usage
• Customized SLA’s
and process
• Total workforce
spend under
management
• Complete
workforce visibility
Managed Service
•
Direct cost savings
Provider (MSP)
on bill rate and
• Contingent
usage
workforce spend
• Customized SLA’s
under management
and process
• One point of
• Non-compliant
contact
spend elimination
• Direct cost savings • Increased total
on bill rate and
cost of ownership
usage
savings
• Customized SLA’s
• Additional
and process
productivity and
• Non-compliant
process savings
spend elimination
• High degree of
• Total cost of
value added
ownership savings
services
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
TTM Integrates Traditional Talent
Employment and Non Employee Labour
Talent Acquisition Modes
Traditional
employees
Recruiters, Direct
Hire, RPO
Managed By: HR
Contingent
Temps, IC, SOW &
Internal stretch
Workforce Planning
Talent strategy and
business alignment
Metrics and Analytics
Agencies, MSP/VMS,
Direct IC
Managed By: HR and Procurement
Outsourced
services
Compensation/Benefits
• Learning and Development
• Career and performance
management
Consulting &
Outsourcing
Firms
Managed By: Procurement
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Foreign Citizens in Europe by Country
Percentage Foreign Citizens
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
EU-27
% EU
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
% non-EU
Source: Eurostat, March 2012
Foreign Citizens in Europe by Country
Percentage Foreign Citizens
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
% EU
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
% non-EU
Source: Eurostat, March 2012
Without Immigration European Population
Would Already be in Decline
EU27 Population with/without Immigration
540m
Decline starts 2035
520m
500m
480m
Decline starts 2012
460m
440m
420m
400m
With migration
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Without migration
Source: Eurostat
The Human Cloud
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
The Human Cloud Landscape
“A Crowd”
Online Staffing
• CrowdFlower
• LionBridge
• Amazon Turk
• Chaordix
Crowdsourcing
• Innocentive
• 99Design
• WikiStrat
How the
Work is
Organised
• freelancer.com
• Elance-oDesk
• Peopleperhour
• Task Rabbit
• LiveOps
• Rev
• OnForce • Gigwalk
• Work
Market
• FieldNation
Online Services
Specific Worker(s)
Labour
Relationship
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
What the Client Gets
Service
Output
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
A New Generation of Online Staffing Providers
Global
Focus
Local
Focus
Onsite Work
Remote/Virtual Work
Restaurant Workers, Field Service
Techs, Day Labourers….
Software Developers,
Creative Designers, Writers,
Editors, Translators…
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
A Global Market Dominated by China and US
Online Staffing Platforms by Country Started
China
US
Net4Manpower
Freelance Students
MBA and Company
Freelancer Market
OfficeCalvary
Geek Freelancers
MyTaskAngel
elevated direct
Total Freelance
PeoplePerHour
UK
Australia
Japan
Canada
India
Spain
France
Israel
Other Europe
196
Online Staffing
firms in operation
globally
LATAM
Africa & Middle East
Other APAC
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Coming to an Office Near You
47% of all US jobs lost
to automation in the next
10 to 20 years
Source: Frey and Osborne
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Impact of Automation on the US Staffing
Industry
Staffing Segment
Office/Clerical
Industrial
Commercial
Finance & Accounting
Clinical/Scientific
Marketing/Creative
Other Professional
IT
Legal
Education
Healthcare
Engineering/Design
Professional/Specialty
TOTAL TEMPORARY STAFFING
Probability of
Computerization
0.814
0.796
0.802
0.845
0.413
0.364
0.346
0.278
0.275
0.252
0.242
0.233
0.327
0.719
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Implications for the Staffing Industry?
• Some will harness technology to develop human-machine
hybrid delivery models
• New jobs will be created as others are lost
– Demand for contingent work to increase in the short to medium term
due to business disruption/uncertainty
– Those staffing firms that don’t pay enough attention to the
implication of the shifting demand for skills will become
extinct
• The role of the agency recruiter will
fundamentally change
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.
Source: Staffing Industry Analysts
Summary
• 2015 growth easing (with higher risks)
• Economic uncertainty continuing (but a positive
driver for contingent labour)
• Ongoing service sophistication
– Evolving models to help companies manage their contingent labour
• Staffing firms and job boards face common challenges
– Every threat is an opportunity
© 2014 Crain Communications Inc.