Transcript Slide 1

Solar Grand Plan:
The Role of Energy Storage
James Mason
Renewable Energy Research Institute
[email protected]
Presentation for ISA Expo
Houston, TX – 6 October 2009
Solar Grand Plan: Components
•Wind Power Plants in Midwest U.S.
1) Energy Storage
a. Compressed Air
i. Thermal for Compressed Air
• Solar Power Plants in Southwest U.S.
1) Photovoltaics (PV) & Solar Thermal
2) Energy Storage
a. Compressed Air and Thermal
• National HVDC Transmission System
• Electric Vehicles
1) Fuel Cell and Plug-in Hybrid
2) National Fueling Infrastructure
Using Renewable Fuel Sources
a. Electrolytic H2 and/or Electricity
• Geothermal
• Cellulosic Biomass
Wind Deployment
14
12
Energy (Q-Btu)
10
1 TW Wind with 400 GW CAES
= 11 Q-Btu
8
6
4
2
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Wind
2035
2040
2045
2050
Solar Deployment
45
40
2.1 TW Solar Thermal with Thermal Energy Storage
or 5.2 TW PV with 2.1 TW CAES
= 31 Q-Btu
Energy (Q-Btu)
35
30
25
20
15
10
1 TW Wind with 400 GW CAES
= 11 Q-Btu
5
0
2010
2015
2020
2025
Wind
2030
2035
Solar
2040
2045
2050
Renewable Transportation Fuels
(100% Replacement of Petroleum by 2050)
70
60
Electrolytic H2 & Biofuel for
Transportation = 20 Q-Btu
Energy (Q-Btu)
50
40
30
Solar with ES
= 31 Q-Btu
20
10
Wind with CAES = 11 Q-Btu
0
2010
2015
2020
Wind
2025
Solar
2030
2035
2040
Electrolytic H2 and Biofuels
2045
2050
140
120
Energy (Q-Btu)
100
Efficiency Gains
= 34 Q-Btu
80
Other Non-FF
Electricity = 20 Q-Btu
60
H2/Biofuel
= 20 Q-Btu
40
Solar with ES
= 31 Q-Btu
20
Wind with CAES = 11 Q-Btu
0
2010
Wind
2015
Solar
2020
2025
Electrolytic H2 and Biofuels
2030
2035
2040
Other Non-Fossil Electricity
2045
2050
Efficiency Gains
140
120
Energy (Q-Btu)
100
Coal
Efficiency Gains
80
Natural Gas
Other Non-FF
Electricity
60
Transportation
H2/Biofuel
40
Oil
Solar with ES
20
Wind with CAES
0
2010
2015
2020
Wind
Other Non-Fossil Electricity
Natural Gas
2025
2030
Solar
Efficiency Gains
Coal
2035
2040
2045
2050
Electrolytic H2 and Biofuels
Oil
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
9,000
Energy Carbon Dioxide Emissions
(million metric tonnes)
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Fuel Cell Vehicle Path
4,000
3,000
Plug-In Hybrid Vehicle Path
2,000
1,000
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
Energy CO2 Emissions Current Path
Energy CO2 Emissions NEI (FCEV Path)
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
Energy CO2 Emissions NEI (PHEV Path)
2050
Solar Grand Plan Costs
1. Base Load Retail Electricity Price = $0.11-0.13/kWh.
Peak Retail Electricity Price = $0.14-0.16/kWh.
2. Total Capital Investment to 2050 = $16 trillion.
Is This Cost Too Great?
* Consider 2008 U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Costs
from EIA Well Cost Data (2004 $; billion $)
Oil = $28b; Natural Gas = $64b; Dry Wells = $24b
Total 2008 U.S. Drilling Costs = $105b
* Domestic Oil and Natural Gas Drilling Costs Alone
Easily Could Be As Much As $10 trillion by 2050.
Benefits of Solar Grand Plan
• Stabilization of Long-term Electricity Prices.
– While Capital Costs Are High, Fuel Cost Is Free.
• A doubling of natural gas and coal prices will result in
cost competitive solar and wind electricity rates.
• Increases U.S. Energy Security.
• Is a Safe and Sure Means to End Carbon Dioxide Emissions.
• Creates a Significant Increase in Energy Efficiency.
• Creates Jobs and Economic Growth.
Next Steps on Path to the Solar Grand Plan
1. Transform Intermittent Wind into Dispatchable Load Capacity
by Coupling Wind Plants to Compressed Air Energy Storage
(CAES) Plants in Midwest. Need to Include CAES in Fed/State
Renewable Energy Incentive Rules and Regulations.
2. Develop Low Cost Thermal Energy Storage (TES) Systems:
* One-Tank, Thermocline, Thermal Energy Storage Systems
for Concentrating Solar Thermal Plants
* Compressed Air Heat Capture and Storage System for CAES.
3. Comparative Research of Fuel Infrastructure Design and
Costs for Plug-In Hybrid and Fuel Cell Vehicle Pathways,
which Includes Evaluation of Public Driving Preferences.
The Solution to Wind and PV Intermittency:
Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES)
Alabama Electric Cooperative’s McIntosh, Alabama
110 MW CAES Power Plant in Continuous Operation Since 1991
CAES Air Turbine Power Plant
A Coupled PV-CAES Plant for Peak Load Capacity
180
Electricity Production (MWh)
160
140
120
100
80
PV = 67%
of Electricity to Grid
60
40
20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11 Noon 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
PV Plant Total Electricity Production
PV Electricity to Grid
CAES Plant Electricity to Grid
Total PV-CAES Electricity to Grid
10
11
12
CAES – Compressed Air Energy Storage Power Plant
•Next CAES Plant Will Be Similar In Design to the Schematic
•Adiabatic CAES (No Natural Gas) Will Not Be Available Until Post-2020
* Wind/PV Electricity for Air Compression
Conventional CAES = 0.8 kWh In / kWh Out
Adiabatic CAES (No Natural Gas) = 1.43 kWh In / kWh Out
* CAES Plant Natural Gas Consumption
Conventional CAES = 4,800 Btu (HHV) / kWh Out
•Fuel Efficiency of a Coupled PV-CAES “Peak” Power Plant
Aggregate Electricity Supplied to Grid = 64% PV and 36% CAES
Aggregate PV-CAES Fuel Efficiency = 191% (3,412 Btu / 1,786 Btu)
* Conclusion: Coupled Wind/PV CAES Is Dispatchable Load Capacity,
Improves Grid Reliability, and Significantly Reduces Fuel Consumption and
CO2 Emissions
Existing Underground Natural Gas Storage Sites
Solar Thermal Power Plant with a One-Tank
Thermocline Thermal Storage System (Future)
Solar Collector
Field
Thermal
Storage Tank
(Molten Salt ?
Steam Electricity
Generator
Immediate Needs
1. Define CAES in Renewable Energy Incentives.
- In Fed/State Legislatures and Regulatory Agencies.
2. Federal Support to Design/Build a HVDC Grid to Distribute
Midwest Wind and Southwest Solar Electricity Nationwide.
3. Create a 10-Year Feed-In Tariff Program to Support the
Development of Wind & Solar Energy Storage Power Plants.
4. Development of Automated Systems to Synchronize the
Supply Route of Wind, PV, and CAES Electricity Production.
Conclusion
Development of Low Cost ($12-15/kWt)
Thermal Energy Storage is Essential for Solar and
Wind to Become Sources of Dispatchable,
Zero CO2 Emissions Power and Fully Capable of
Replacing Both Base and Peak Load Fossil Fuel
Power Plants. With Dispatchable Solar and
Wind Power Plants, We Can Stabilize Long-Term
Electricity Prices and Be Approaching Zero
Energy Related CO2 Emissions by 2050.
Acknowledgements
• Bill “Burr in the Saddle” Bailey – Fiscal Associates
• Ken Zweibel – George Washington University
• Vasilis Fthenakis – Columbia University and
Brookhaven National Lab