Transcript Campaigns and Elections - Texas A&M University–Central Texas

Campaigns and Elections
History and Strategy
I. History
A.
The non-candidate (1792-1824): Early
candidates considered it unseemly to
“campaign.” Organizations and friendly
papers do the work.
1. Campaigns are Personal
and Ugly (1800 example)

Jefferson: Adams has a “hideous hermaphroditical
character, which has neither the force and firmness of a
man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman”
–
–
–

Jefferson hires a “hatchet man” for his worst slurs. James
Callendar. He alleges Adams is bent on war with France
Callendar is imprisoned for slander under Adams
Jefferson fails to aid him upon release  Callendar reveals
Jefferson’s affair with his slave Sally Hemings
Pro-Adams papers:
–
–
Jefferson is “a mean-spirited, low-lived fellow, the son of a
half-breed Indian squaw, sired by a Virginia mulatto father.”
“Murder, robbery, rape, adultery, and incest will all be openly
taught and practiced”
2. “Ads” are
editorials and
editorial
cartoons

Example:
Divine
intervention
saves America
from
Jefferson’s
tyranny
B. Symbolic
Politics, 1828-1860
Symbols useful for personalized
campaigns – reflect personality traits
Also useful when illiteracy is
widespread
Origins: Jackson’s campaign of 1828
(Old Hickory).
1.
2.
3.
a.
b.
Jackson learns from failure to campaign in
1824, mobilizes mass support
Characterized by de-emphasis of issue
positions (Jackson refuses to render
opinion on Adams economic policies) 
1828 might be most negative campaign in
history
c. Mudslinging in 1828:
Adams Targets Jackson



One Adams paper: “General Jackson's mother was
a common prostitute, brought to this country by
the British soldiers! She afterward married a
mulatto man, with whom she had several children,
of which number General Jackson is one!”
Jackson accused of murder for ordering execution
of six militiamen for desertion in War of 1812
Jackson accused of adultery and his wife of
bigamy (her divorce may not have been final when
she married Jackson)
1828: Adams Campaign Song:
Jackson = “Plague and Pestilence”


“Little Know Ye Who’s Comin’”
Sample lines:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–

Fire's comin', swords is comin',
Pistols, guns and knives is comin',
Famine's comin', bannin's comin',
If John Quincy not be comin'!
Slavery's comin', knavery's comin‘…
Tears are comin', fears are comin',
Plague and pestilence is comin',
Hatin's comin’, Satan's comin‘…
So wonderfully (horribly) negative it was covered
by band Piñataland for use against Bush in 2004
d. 1828: Jackson Strikes Back
Rumor: Adams, while serving as American
ambassador to Russia, had procured an
American girl for the sexual services of the
Russian czar  Jackson men call Adams a
“pimp”
 Adams charged with using government
money to buy a billiard table for his own
amusement (he bought it himself)

4. 1840: Log Cabin
and Hard Cider

Memorabilia: Hundreds of objects (ribbons
and postcards) emphasize log cabin
5. Issues Overtake Symbols
a. 1848: Free Soil Campaigns against Slavery

(Campaign songs commonly set
to well-known tunes like Yankee
Doodle or Auld Lang Syne)
Note: VP candidate is son of
Pres JQ Adams, son of Pres
Adams
b. 1856: Last Gasp of the Whigs: Fillmore
(W) between Fremont (R) and Buchanan (D)
c. Republicans vs. Democrats:
The Slavery Issue
1856: “Clear the Tracks” (Republican song
about Fremont – refers to Kansas violence)
 1860: “The Flag of Liberty” (Patriotism
associated with policies to “break
oppression’s chain”)

C. Politics of Division, 18601892
Symbols now = Issues.
1. 1860 and 1864 – focus on Union

2. “Rum, Romanism, and
Rebellion” 1868-1892
a.
“Waving the Bloody Shirt:” Republicans
criticize Democrats as party of treason
(Rebellion).
1868 Grant slogan: “Vote as You Shot”
1868: AntiDemocratic
Cartoons


1868: Democrats run on
white power
Sample lyrics (sung to
Auld Lang Syne)
–
–
–
–
Let, then, all freeborn
patriots,
Join with a brave intent
To vindicate our Father’s
choice,
“A white man’s
Government.”
1876: Robert Ingersoll Reminds
Listeners of Democratic Treason

Speech to Union veterans of Civil War in Indianapolis
“Every ordinance of secession that was drawn was drawn by a Democrat. Every man that
endeavored to tear the old flag from the heaven that it enriches was a Democrat. Every man
that tried to destroy this nation was a Democrat. Every enemy this great Republic has had
for twenty years has been a Democrat. Every man that shot Union soldiers was a Democrat.
Every man that denied to the Union prisoners even the worm-eaten crust of famine, and
when some poor, emaciated Union patriot, driven to insanity by famine, saw in an insane
dream the face of his mother, and she beckoned him and he followed, hoping to press her
lips once again against his fevered face, and when he stepped one step beyond the dead line
the wretch that put the bullet through his loving, throbbing heart was and is a Democrat.
Every man that loved slavery better than liberty was a Democrat. The man that assassinated
Abraham Lincoln was a Democrat. Every man that sympathized with the assassin — every
man glad that the noblest President ever elected was assassinated, was a Democrat. Every
man that wanted the privilege of whipping another man to make him work for him for
nothing and pay him with lashes on his naked back, was a Democrat. Every man that raised
bloodhounds to pursue human beings was a Democrat. Every man that clutched from
shrieking, shuddering, crouching mothers, babes from their breasts, and sold them into
slavery, was a Democrat. … Soldiers, every scar you have on your heroic bodies was given
you by a Democrat. Every scar, every arm that is lacking, every limb that is gone, is a
souvenir of a Democrat. I want you to recollect it.”
b. Democrat-Catholic alliance
(Romanism)
Anti-immigrant sentiment in general, plus
 Opposition of pro-Republican EnglishAmerican families to Ireland, plus
 Dislike of Midwestern Protestants for
Catholicism
 Led to Irish-Democrat alliance.
Republicans run anti-Catholic and anti-Irish
campaigns

Fear of Immigration, 1884
c. Prohibition issue (Rum)
Connected to Irish issue (stereotyping)
 National Prohibition Party established but
fails (Republicans simply shift to
incorporate issue)
 1880-1890: Wave of state anti-saloon laws
(issue more potent locally than nationally)

3. Machine Politics and the
Issue of Character
Republicans vs. Liberal Republicans: The
debate over civil service reform (see 1876
in Election Day)
1884: Liberal Republicans support the
Democrat Cleveland. Unusually
competitive election  dirtiest campaign
of 19th century
a.
b.
i.
Cleveland: “Public Office is a Public Trust”
(implies opponent is corrupt)
ii. Cleveland’s Sex Scandal



Cleveland
believed to have
fathered child
with well-known
prostitute.
Accepts
responsibility
Republican chant:
“Ma, Ma, where’s
my Pa?”
iii. Blaine’s Railroad Scandal
Blaine wrote letters during scandal implying
he took money for railroad contracts. Last
sentence of one letter = “Burn this letter.”
 Democratic chant:

–
“Blaine, Blaine, James G. Blaine! The
continental liar from the state of Maine,
Burn this letter!”
iv. Denouement: The battle for
New York
Blaine fails to immediately disavow “Rum,
Romanism, and Rebellion” slogan  Irish
voters turn to Cleveland
 New York World publishes exaggerated
depictions of Blaine feasting at Republican
dinner while country is in depression
 Blaine loses New York by 1149 votes

v. The Sequel: Dirty Tricks
Unseat Cleveland in 1888



Cleveland vulnerable in New York's sizable Irish
community after his administration negotiated a
fisheries treaty with the British Empire (hated by
the Irish)  Cross-pressured voters!
Republican George Osgoodby sent a letter to the
British ambassador to the United States under the
pretense that he was a British expatriate named
Charles Murchison who wanted to know which
candidate would best "favor England's interests."
Ambassador endorses Cleveland  Republicans
use “Murchison Letter” to drive a wedge between
Cleveland and Irish voters
5. Publicity stunts and
technology
Edison’s gramophone allows recorded
speeches and campaign songs.
 Cleveland 1892: Publicity stunt only (few
own gramophones, which are unsuitable for
mass listening anyway)
 Player piano rolls and cylinders of popular
campaign songs become common

D. Populism and
Progressivism (1896-1920)
1.
2.
3.
4.
Republicans back away from
support for civil rights (support for
Plessy vs. Ferguson)  race issue
loses salience for white voters
Economic issues and social
reforms gain prominence
The 1896 Campaign: Free Silver
vs. the Full Dinner Pail and the
“front porch” strategy -- See
Election Day for context
Significant foreign policy
differences re-emerge by 1900
E. Origins of Polls and Paid
Advertisements (1924-1948)
1.
Literary Digest poll
a.
b.
c.
d.
Begun as publicity stunt in 1920, proves remarkably
accurate (within 1% in 1932)
Fails miserably in 1936: Predicts landslide for
Landon (55 to 41) when real outcome is landslide for
Roosevelt (61 to 37) – 20% error!
Why did it fail? Non-representative sample
(automobile registrations and telephone books) and
voluntary response (2.3 million out of 10 million)
Why did it work for so long? Remarkable consensus
and stability in electorate…
2. Gallup and Scientific Polling
a.
b.
c.
d.
Gallup predicts Roosevelt victory with smaller sample
(about 2000 vs. 2.3 million)
Gallup also correctly predicts the Literary Digest
prediction before the postcards are counted!
Method = quota polling (trying to ensure sample
matches proportions in population)
Major failure in 1948: Quota polling replaced with
random sampling (still used today)
3. Origins of Mass Media
Campaigns
a.
Factors affecting print
political advertising:
Increased magazine
circulation, national
newspapers, news
magazines (Time
founded in 1923),
mass literacy

Roosevelt turns the
“Full Dinner Pail”
against Republicans,
1932:
b. Local campaigns focus on local
issues (diminished party control)

Example: AntiJapanese racism in
California, 1924
c. Use of Motion Pictures



Only way to see a candidate speak or watch an event unfold
1920: “Candidate” Coolidge makes the first political “talkie”
1934: MGM runs fake “California Election News” newsreels
against Upton Sinclair in California governor’s race
d. The Effect of Radio



First convention covered by radio in 1924
National networks emerge from 1926-1927
Radio ownership (households):
–
–
–



4.7% in 1924
27.5% in 1928
60% in 1932
First paid political spots: President Calvin
Coolidge spends more than $100,00 to broadcast
his speeches in 1924
First national political spots: 1928 (52 hours by
Democrats, 43 hours by Republicans)
1932: Democrats use same amount, but
Republicans increase to 72 hours!

1928 ad for
Zenith radio
touts convention
coverage!
1932: Republicans increase air
time to 72 hours – and lose


Hoover discovers that style matters as much as substance
when he angers listeners by speaking too long
Example: Tuesday, October 4, at 8:30 P.M. Speech lasts
far more than the expected hour:
–
“(At 9:30) listeners confidently awaited the President’s
concluding words. Confidently and also impatiently, for at 9:30
… Mr. Ed Wynn comes on the air. But Mr. Hoover had only
arrived at point 2 of his 12-point program. The populace
shifted in its myriad seats; wives looked at husbands; children
allowed to remain up until 10 o’clock on Tuesdays looked in
alarm at the clock; 20,000 votes shifted to Franklin Roosevelt.
At 9:45, Mr. Hoover had arrived at point four; two million
Americans switched off their instruments and sent their
children to bed weeping.” – The Nation
Roosevelt: Master of Radio
Roosevelt addresses audience intimately
(aware that people listen to radio in small
groups, not huge crowds)
 “Fireside chats”

F. Dawn of the Television Age
1.
2.
1948: Coverage of conventions (although
few own televisions). 3 of 4 conventions
held in Philadelphia to enable widest TV
coverage.
Truman prepares 1-minute spot in 1948,
but Dewey sees advertising as undignified
ignoring advice of consultants
3. 1952: TV is
undignified…but effective

"The idea that you can merchandise
candidates for high office like breakfast
cereal is the ultimate indignity to the
democratic process."
–

Democratic candidate Adlai Stevenson, 1956
Eisenhower has a product jingle in
1952…and wins!
Print ads
remain
important
for years
 1952 

4. Putting It All Together:
Political Consultants
1948: Truman hires PR firm to manage his
flagging campaign. Combination of ads,
whistle-stop campaign, publicity stunts (TV
coverage), and consistent message (“donothing Congress”) lead to victory
 Other campaigns emulate Truman’s success,
adding more sophisticated techniques over
time

II. Modern Campaign Strategy
A. Strategy =
Overall plan for
victory.
Determines:
–
–
–
–
Who: the voters you
need to win
Why: the reasons
they will vote for
you
What: the unifying
message to address
them
How: acquiring
resources to
campaign
B. District Analysis: What are
the odds?
1.
Voting patterns: Which party dominates
and why?
a.
b.
c.
Neither: District is competitive
Loyalty: One party is favored. Capturing
voters will require de-emphasizing party and
emphasizing ideology
Ideology: One ideology is favored. Candidate
ideology must adapt in response.
2. Demographics: Which
groups will be critical?
Noncompetitive groups – Mobilize or Suppress
Nonvoting groups – Ignore (especially relevant in
primary elections)
Competitive voting groups – Persuade
a.
b.
c.
i.
ii.
iii.
Hillygus & Shields – who is competitive and how to
persuade them is most of the book!
Figure 4.1: even highly cross-pressured partisans usually
remain loyal
Figures 4.2 and 4.3: characteristics of voter
(attentiveness, awareness) more important than campaign
visits in 2004, but opposite true in 2000  how do we
know when “persuasion” is more important than simply
getting people to pay attention?
C. Issue Analysis: Comparing
Assets and Liabilities
1.
2.
3.
Mobilization issues: Increase or decrease base
turnout. (May also affect vote choice of swing
voters  Hillygus & Shields argue that 2004
“mobilization” issues were really “wedge”
issues)
Wedge issues: Create a gap between opposition
candidate and swing voters or “persuadable
partisans” (pro-opposition leaners)
Policy issues: Problem/blame and
solution/promise format
4. Issues from 2004 (Hillygus
& Shields survey data)

Three types of issues
–
–
–

Mobilization Issues: Economy, Iraq War, War on
Terror, Tax Cuts, Trade  mostly
economy/security issues
Wedge Issues: Faith-Based Initiatives, School
Prayer, Abortion, Prescription Drug Imports, Gay
Marriage  mostly “social values” issues
Policy Issues: Few “neutral” policy dilemmas
Is this why politicians don’t focus on “key
issues” or “real solutions” instead of
“symbolic issues?”
D. The Message
1.
The need for themes of support and opposition
a.
b.
Self-definition: One word or phrase to summarize
reason for campaign. Examples: Clinton 1992 =
change, Bush 1992 = “family values,” Bush 2004
= 9/11, Obama 2008 = change, McCain 2008 =
patriotism  change
Opposition: one word or phrase to summarize
opponent; reinforce with issue ads and character
ads. Examples: Bush I = “out of touch,” Dole =
desperate, Bush II = dumb, Gore = liar, Kerry =
flip-flop, Obama = elitist, McCain = “four more
years”
2. The need for repetition:
Choices within the message
a.
b.
c.
d.
People remember very little from ads or news
stories. Facts help imprint message, but won’t
be recalled later.
Repeating the same facts bores people (voters
become accustomed to highs/lows)
Solution: Reinforce the basic (often unstated)
message with multiple examples (Opposition:
Bush saying dumb things, Gore lying, Kerry
shifting positions, etc)
Goal = voters remember/agree with the basic
criticism (filter future news through that lens)
3. Targeting the Message
a.
b.
c.
Microtargeting: Communicating different
messages to different voters. H&S link this to
pre-TV campaigns and argue it made a
resurgence in the 1990s.
Question: Has the Internet made this harder
(because message can be retransmitted by
others) or easier (because users self-select into
narrow forums)?
Method: Personal visits matter more than ads
(see H&S)
4. Limits of the message
a.
b.
Candidates don’t control
agenda – news
organizations and interest
groups raise “off-message”
issues that can become
critical
Negative message sticks
better than positive
message – i.e. easier to
define opponent than self
E. Fundraising: It’s hard for a
beginner
1.
2.
3.
4.
Major donor approach: Need to establish
credibility; hard money goes to winners
Issue organizations: Need credibility AND
compatible policy positions (danger of extremism
compared to electorate)
Direct mail and Telemarketing: Administrative
costs eat up much of the money
Grassroots: Takes a great deal of candidate time
and attention. Possible selling point in ads.
04
06
08
F. Building the Machine
1.
2.
3.
4.
Campaign manager (scheduling, coordination)
Consultants (strategy, polling and research)
Media relations
Foot Soldiers: Mass of employees or
volunteers to spread the message, create signs,
make phone calls, solicit donations, etc.
III. Campaign Tactics
A.
Opposition research
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Small campaigns: Read through minutes or
Congressional record, news appearances, public
records (FOIA)
Large campaigns: Permanent surveillance, interviews
with past acquaintances
Most important skill: Convincing the media to use the
information
Most opposition research done prior to campaign:
need for steady dribble of damage (so scandals don’t
crowd each other out – each piece of information
must get full airing in media)
If tide turns in media, respond with new leak before
public realizes old one was false (causes old one to
leave front page)
B. Polling
1.
Interpreting Polls
a.
b.
c.
Sample size – Generally less important than
random selection/representativeness. Larger
sample = smaller…
Margin of error – Given laws of probability
and assumptions about respondents (normal
distribution), likely range of true value
Confidence level – Typically 95% confidence
that true value is within margin of error.
Example: Bush job approval
2. Which polls can be trusted?
Error vs. Bias:
Compare Clinton
Fox over-estimated
Bush popularity,
Zogby underestimated
Bush popularity
 Was this political
bias? Estimates of
Clinton popularity 

3. Polling Techniques
a.
b.
Internal polls: Used to
measure message
penetration, allocate
resources
Manipulation of Polls:
Selective publication of
internal polls or slanted
wording in order to
generate “momentum”
(remember: big money
bets on winners – and so
do voters!)
c. Tracking Polls


Same question asked many times, often with overlapping
samples.
Generally considered less reliable (smaller samples, high
volatility)
d. Push Polls: “Polls” in Name
Only
Method: Voter gets a call, ostensibly from a
polling company, asking which candidate
the voter supports. If the voter supports the
“wrong” candidate, then the pollster asks
whether voter would still support candidate
if they knew… (insert rumor or allegation
here)
 Response irrelevant: Voter exposed to
charges

Two examples in McCain races

Vs. McCain in the South Carolina
Republican Primary, 2000:
–
–
The McCains adopted a Bangladeshi girl from
Mother Theresa’s orphanage.
Anonymous opponents (usually assumed to be
Bush surrogates) used "push polling" to ask
would-be supporters if they would be more or
less likely to vote for McCain if they knew was
the father of an illegitimate child who was Black
Two examples in McCain races

Vs. Obama in Swing States, 2008
–
“Republican Jewish Coalition” sponsors poll
whish asks Jewish Obama supporters if they
would support him knowing that
•
•
•
He is a Muslim (false)
He funded the PLO (false)
He was endorsed by Hamas (true – although Obama
condemned the group)
C. Media Relations
1.
Spin Control –
Instantaneous
response to attacks
(before uncontested
attack gets on the air).
Slow response = no
response since story
fades from view over
time.
2. Debates
a.
b.
Debating acknowledges equality –
Leading candidates usually refuse
Debates are rarely debates – candidates
write the rules, fear off-script moments
c. Development






1960: TV vs. radio (impressions of Nixon)
1976 (next debate): Ford offends East Europeans
and Cold Warriors
1980, 1984: Development of sound-bites
1988: Vice-Presidential debate and the overlyrational Dukakis
1992: Three-way format creates new rules, tactics
2000, 2004: Rules limit spontaneity; ratings
decline
Do Debates
Matter?
Not to partisans
or people with
strong opinions
 Nonpartisans and
less-informed
voters are
affected

3. Public Events



Key to successful speeches
is media coverage
Incumbents have edge
because they can issue
policy changes
Candidates now filter
crowds (i.e. only Bush
supporters allowed to attend
his speeches)
4. Investigative Journalism:
Don’t Count On It
a.
b.
Most notable investigative
reports are “seeded” by
campaigns (e.g. Dukakis
undermines Biden in 1988
primaries)
Media focus: Horse-Race
stories
i.
ii.
iii.
45% of campaign news stories
focus on horse-race/strategy
29% focus on campaign issues
Less than 1% analyze and
critique campaign ads
D. Advertising
1.
Central goal: Reinforce the message about
the candidate and the opponent
2. Secondary Goals
a.
b.
Name recognition – Very important for all
except general election for President
Alter issue salience – Prime voters to
think about a particular issue controlled by
one side
Issue Salience: California 1994
2. Secondary Goals
a.
b.
c.
d.
Name recognition – Very important for all
except general election for President
Alter issue salience – Prime voters to
think about a particular issue controlled by
one side
Mobilization – Make supporters think that
getting to the polls matters. LBJ: “The
stakes are too high for you to stay home.”
Suppression – Make likely opponents
think that no candidate represents them
3. Tools of the Trade
a.
b.
c.
Repetition – Within ads as well as
between them
Syntax – Long sentences for nuance,
fragments for blunt messages
“Loaded Words” – See handout
d. “Code Words” and
Prejudice
Many people have prejudices they don’t believe
are prejudices  they reject open bigotry but buy
into stereotypes
 The trick: Appeal to prejudice without using
openly bigoted language or arguments
 Examples

–
–
Republicans (race): “White Hands,” Willie Horton,
Immigration (and “those who don’t belong”)
Democrats: The Truth About Furloughs, “Hair Salon”
Immigration, Rocking Chairs
e. Audiovisual Cues
1.
2.
Suggest evil – B/W footage, grainy film,
ominous music
Suggest incompetence, bumbling, or
ignorance – lighthearted music,
caricatures
f. Deception and Distortion
Issues/Votes: See http://www.factcheck.org/ for
many examples
 Media debunking often amplifies
misconceptions by re-broadcasting original ad!
 Common tactic in “opposition” territory: Play
hide-the-party. Examples:

–
–
–
D: Jim Webb (2006) and Tom Periello (2008)
R: Mike Steele (2006): response
Compare: Lavar Christensen
4. Standard Political Ad
Formats
a.
The Biography (documentary). Often the
first ad of the campaign.
Examples: Obama, Noriega (Texas)
b. Talking Head Ads
Most common type of positive
advertisement
 Used by candidates to give “aura of
leadership”
 Usually focus on a particular issue
(communicates competence and expertise)

c. Message Ads
Use images or metaphors to reinforce
positive or negative messages
 Rely on viewer to already hold a point of
view – seek to increase its salience to the
voter (need for memorable visuals)
 Examples: Daisy, Toy Soldiers, Bear,
Revolving Door, Wolves

d. Endorsement Ads
i.
ii.
iii.
Prerequisite: Endorser must be more
popular/known than endorsee. Sometimes
misleading (common after bitter primaries).
Can lead to embarrassment.
Frequency decreasing: credibility transfers less
than once thought.
Still heavily used in local races, where “I’m
qualified” is the central message (focus on
name recognition rather than issues).
iv. Guilt by Association: The
“unwanted endorsement” ad
Early examples: KKK and Goldwater 1964
(warning: racist language), Iran and Carter
1980
 Increasingly common:

–
–
–
1994 Clinton morphs
”Hillary” in Republican Primary (2006)
Democrats tie opponents to Bush in 2008 (MN,
Pres), Republicans do the same with Obama in
solidly “Red” States
e. “Man in the Street” Ads

Feature ordinary people – meant to
represent key demographic groups
–

Look at who is not in the crowd
Examples: McGovern 1972, Carter 1980
f. Education Ads
Meant to transmit knowledge to viewers
(usually negative information about
opponent)
 Emphasize credible evidence (newspaper
headlines, personal testimony, video
footage, official reports, etc.) to convince
fence-sitters

5. Targeting Ads: Match
Voters to Issues
a.
b.
c.
d.
Local Issues: Emphasize “us vs. them” mentality.
Examples: Tornadoes in Indiana, Trade Policy in
Pennsylvania, a Sub Base in Connecticut
Language: Target linguistic minorities. Examples:
Spanish, Cantonese
Prospective Voters: Evaluate candidates based upon
expected future behavior. Target with hope/fear.
Retrospective voters: Reward/punish candidates based
on past performance. Target with evidence of
success/failure (no alternative necessary).
e. Issues and Voter Targeting
Economy – Usually retrospective. Examples:
i.
•
1952: Eisenhower asks, Who Raised Prices?
•
1984: The Train: Retrospective success
•
1988: I Remember You: Republicans try to run
against Carter again
•
1992: How Ya Doin’? And Read My Lips
•
2008: From Obama and McCain
ii. Budget Deficits: Usually
Retrospective

1984: Reagan Deficits

2000: Gore’s Spending

2004: Child’s Play

2008: Earmarks (CO)
iii. Long Wars: Usually
Retrospective
•Examples
•Republicans criticize Korea in 1952 (Eisenhower)
•Republicans criticize Vietnam in 1964 (Goldwater)
and 1968 (Nixon)
•Democrats criticize Iraq in 2004 (Kerry), 2006
(Lamont), 2008 (Coleman)
•Note that often criticism is of management of war (because
requires no plan other than “do it better”)
•Defenses: Iraq 2006, 2008 (generally ineffective – no evidence
ads change opinion of war, so best defense is to claim to
oppose war “as fought”)
iv. Tragedy: Always
Retrospective


9/11: Ashley’s Story
JFK Assassination: Promises Kept
v. Veep Worries: Always
Prospective
Vs. Nixon 1956
Vs. Agnew 1968
Vs. Quayle 1988
vi. Gaffes: Usually
Prospective
1964: The Saw
1980: Reagan Likes Proliferation
2006: Laffey Hopes You Die and Burns Hates Firefighters
2008: McCain’s 100 Year War and Merkley Needs a Moment
vii. Preparedness and Escalation
(Usually Prospective)




1968: Castro’s Bomb
1988: Tank Ride and Response
2002: Max Cleland Lacks Courage?
2008: Immigration as Terrorism, Wiretapping
for Security
viii. Character and Scandal







1964: Our Lack of Moral Values (Dems respond
to slogan with “In Your Guts…”)
1972: Watergate
1982: Jerry Springer for Governor
1992: Gray Dot
1996: Unusually Good Liar
2006: You Funded What?!?
2008: It’s Not Just the Indictment…
E. Get out the Vote (GOTV)
1.
2.
Most important in midterm elections and primaries
Still important in Presidential elections –
Republican GOTV efforts probably won Ohio in
2004
3. GOTV Strategies
RNC strategy (used since 2002): 72-hour program
a.
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
v.
Phone calls, polling data and personal visits identify
would-be GOP voters and their top issues early in the
cycle.
Information is then fed into a database, allowing party
leaders to flood them with pro-Republican messages
through e-mail, regular mail and local volunteers.
On Election Day, they receive a phone call or a visit to
remind them to vote.
Post-election interviews with targets to evaluate
performance
Key difference with earlier efforts = national database of
likely Republican voters. Allows much better targeting
and more efficient spending.
b. Democratic Strategies
i.
ii.
iii.
The DNC’s 50-State Strategy: Spread resources
throughout entire country to rebuild party in
Red states.
DCCC Plan: Target swing states by mobilizing
single-issue groups and unions.
Democratic efforts generally less successful in
2004 and California special election in 2006.
Little coordination or information-sharing
between efforts.
F. Primaries: Same tactics,
different voting groups
Unique feature: Incentive to interfere in other
party’s primary  cause disunion or simply
support weaker candidate (must be secret)
Example: Muskie in 1972
Just before New Hampshire primary, conservative
paper’s editorial accuses Democratic front-runner
Muskie of using an ethnic slur against FrenchAmericans, a large voting bloc in NH. Evidence =
letter from a Florida man (actually a hoax planted
by Nixon White House). Muskie reacts
emotionally (tears or melted snow?), and is
defeated by ultra-liberal McGovern.
IV. Do Campaigns Matter?
A.
Hillygus and Shields say yes – but…
1.
2.
3.
B.
Look at Figure 4.4 – linear trend is deceptive (increase in
role of cross-pressures followed by decrease near end of
campaign)
Surveys also misleading – how well do pre-election
commitments reflect actual voting?
My conclusion – H&S are far better at explaining why
campaigns adopt certain strategies than proving that
these strategies substantially alter the outcome of the
election. Size of effects is the key unknown.
Can we predict election outcomes without knowing
anything about the campaigns? Need to try in
order to establish maximum size of campaign
effects.