Changing Strategic Environments - British Foreign Policy and Defense Strategy Responses to Emerging Threats ‘Active Diplomacy and Delivering Security in a Changing World’

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Objectives

• Look at the strategic environment.

• The nexus between strategic environment and policy.

• Current British foreign policy.

• Current British defense strategy.

• Discuss the connection between foreign policy and defense strategy.

• Questions.

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The Link Between Policy and Strategy

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Strategy

is the overall process of deciding where we want to get to and how we are going to get there. •

Strategic direction

describes the desired future and sets out what needs to be achieved in order to bring it about. It provides the guiding principles that give context and coherence to action. •

Policy

provides the means of moving in that direction - and often a number of policies need to work together to deliver particular strategic outcomes. Policy design work is concerned with identifying how to achieve strategic objectives, selecting the most suitable policy instruments for doing this, and detailing how these instruments will work in practice.

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The Link Between Policy and Strategy

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The Essence of Security

Freedom from

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Doubt and Fear Harm and Danger Threat and Intimidation Need and Want

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Strategic Environment

• Globalization • Weak and failing states • WMD proliferation • Demography • Forced and illegal migration • Natural Resource scarcity • Degraded ecosystems • Pollution • Climate change • Pandemic disease • Inter and Intra state and non-state conflict • Terrorism • International organized criminality (drugs, people, money).

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…in summary

• The world is increasingly complex, uncertain and interdependent. A one world system.

• No state will be able to pursue its objectives successfully on its own..

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Environmental Security

“The Earth is a system that life itself helps to control. Biotic and abiotic processes strongly interact to create the planetary environment” “Environmental security is the disarmament policy of the future.”

Klaus Toepfer - Executive-Director of the United Nations Environment Programme

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Population Growth

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Night lights: 2000

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Night lights: 2070

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Population Growth

Only about 20 percent of the current world's population has a generally adequate standard of living. The other 80 percent live in conditions ranging from mild deprivation to severe deficiency.

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Can the planet feed us?

The world’s population increased from 2.5 billion in 1950 to 6 billion in 2000.

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Last Updated: Friday, 14 April 2006, 23:05 GMT 00:05 UK

Britain now 'eating the planet' By Mark Kinver

BBC News science and nature reporter In 1961, the Earth could have supported everyone having a UK lifestyle. It would take 3.1 planets to support the current UK lifestyle

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Land available

• Globally, about 36% of the land thought suitable for some type of crop production is in use. The remaining land is unevenly spread between regions and is often valuable to wildlife, already occupied by human settlements or has some soil constraints. Land degradation is considered a serious problem, although measuring its extent is difficult.

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Future Water scarcity

• An estimated third of the world's population currently lives in water stressed countries. This is set to increase to two-thirds within 25 years. Africa and Asia are already hard-hit by water stress. Increasing populations will create more pressure in the coming decades.

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Clean Drinking Water

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Soaring use

• The world's population has tripled in the last 100 years, but water use has increased six fold. A surge in water use in agriculture is responsible for a large part of the increase.

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Water Consumption

The current 2.2 billion people living under moderate or severe water stress will rise to 4 billion by 2025. Africa, Asia and South America all show sharp increases of 73%, 60% and 93% respectively in the ratio of demand and supply.

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Per Capita Annual Renewable Freshwater Availability, 1950, 1995, 2050

“At least 400 million people live in regions with severe water shortages. By the year 2050, it is projected to be approximately two billion.” 20

Deforestation

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Soil Erosion

Nearly 50% of the land surface has been transformed by direct human action, with significant consequences.

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Energy: Meeting Soaring Demand

Between 1970 and 1997, the global consumption of energy increased by 84%. Global energy demand is projected to increase by 60% in the next 25-30 years as developing countries industrialize and rich countries continue to guzzle power. Fossil fuels will continue to dominate, estimated to account for 85% of new demand.

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Energy Resources

In the last 150-years humankind has exhausted 40% of known oil reserves that took several hundred million years to generate

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Carbon Emissions

• Carbon emissions - thought to be a major cause of global climate change - are set to increase by 60%. As developing countries' share of world energy demand surges from 38% to a predicted 48%, poor countries are expected to contribute two-thirds of the projected increase in carbon emissions.

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From the Headlines…

Blair dealt nuclear power blow by parliament body

Sunday April 16, 12:04 AM

GOVERNMENT ENERGY REVIEW The government, which has acknowledged it is likely to miss its own goal of cutting carbon dioxide emissions by 20 percent by 2010, is half way through a six-month review of the country's future energy needs and how to meet them. Bound by pledges to slash emissions of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, it must decide the shape of the country's electricity supply network for coming decades as demand grows and North Sea oil and gas run out.

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Global Warming

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Warmer future

• This map assumes that current emissions trends continue, with moderate economic growth and few measures to reduce emissions. It predicts the greatest rises in northern polar regions, India, Africa and parts of South America.

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Rising Sea level

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Rising Sea level - Florida

Using computer models, scientists have created a series of maps that show areas susceptible to rises in sea level. The above map shows that a 6-meter (20-foot) rise would swamp Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Tampa, and the entire Florida coastline, in addition to parts of Orlando and other inland areas.

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Rising Sea level - Global

44% of the world’s population live within 150 km of a coastline

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Biodiversity: The Sixth Great Wave

The loss of biological diversity is an aspect of global change that is just as important as climate change. In southern China, the extinction of pollinating bees has meant that humans have had to take on the duty.

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Ageing Population

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Natural Resources and Conflict

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British Policy to Meet the Strategic Environment

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Active Diplomacy for a Changing World

“What happens abroad has never mattered more for our security and prosperity…the task for Government is to seek to understand and influence the world for the benefit of our people and all people”.

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Active Diplomacy for a Changing World

“ At the heart of any foreign policy must lie a set of fundamental values…We seek a world in which freedom, justice and opportunity thrive, in which governments are accountable to the people, protect their rights and guarantee their security and basic needs….”

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Nine Strategic Priorities for the UK

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Making the world safer from global terrorism and weapons of mass destruction.

Reducing the harm to the UK from international crime, including drug trafficking, people smuggling and money laundering.

Preventing and resolving conflict through a strong international system.

Building an effective and globally competitive EU in a secure neighbourhood [sic].

Supporting the UK economy and business through an open and expanding global economy, science and innovation and secure energy supplies.

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Nine Strategic Priorities for the UK

6.

7.

8.

9.

Promoting sustainable development and poverty reduction underpinned by human rights, democracy, good governance and protection of the environment.

Managing migration and combating illegal immigration.

Delivering high-quality support for British nationals abroad, in normal times and in crisis.

Ensuring the security and good governance of the UK’s Overseas Territories.

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British Defense Strategy in a Changing World

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What is Strategy?

Strategy is the use made of and the threat of force for the goals of policy. It is all about the relationship between means and ends. As an analogy, it is the bridge between ends and means; that is, the way.

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British Defense Vision

Defending the United Kingdom and its interests Strengthening international peace and security A force for good in the world 42

Changing Mission

"Resources must be directed at those capabilities that are best able to deliver the range of military effects required, whilst dispensing with those elements that are less flexible. It has historically been the fashion to measure military capability in terms of the weight of numbers of units or platforms - of ships, tanks and aircraft. That might have been appropriate for the attritional warfare of the past but, in today's environment, success will be achieved through an ability to act quickly, accurately and decisively so as to deliver military effect at the right time." Secretary of State for Defence, Geoff Hoon 11 December 2003

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Frameworks for Action

• The UN will remain the main forum for debate and authorization • Multinational fora will be used where UN agreement is not possible • NATO and the EU (ESDP) are the organizations of choice for responses to international crisis • Ad hoc coalitions will remain appropriate in many instances • Large-scale operations will be fought alongside the US

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Defense Strategy

A focus on achieving eight Strategic Military Effects: • Prevent • Stabilize • Contain • Deter • Coerce • Disrupt • Defeat • Destroy “Striking the right balance of capabilities to meet all eight strategic effects will not be easy…In particular, it is now clear that we no longer need to retain a capability against the re-emergence of a direct conventional strategic threat to the UK or our allies”.

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Military Tasks

• Strategic Intelligence • Nuclear Deterrence • Hydrographic, Geographic and Meteorological Services • Aid to the Civil Authorities • Aid to Civil Power in Northern Ireland • Integrity of UK Waters • Integrity of UK Airspace • Public Duties and VIP Transport • Defence and Security of the Overseas Territories

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Military Tasks

• Defence and Security of the Sovereign Base Areas of Cyprus • Defence Diplomacy • Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster relief • Evacuation of British Citizens Overseas • Peacekeeping, Prevention, • Deterrence, Containment and Stabilisation • Peace Enforcement • Power Projection • Focused Intervention • Deliberate Intervention

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Navy Capabilities

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RAF Capabilities

"This restructuring is essential and will ensure we continue to deliver a highly capable, cost-efficient and powerful Air Force, capable of making a winning contribution both on operations and in humanitarian and relief operations…The result will be an even more flexible and adaptable Air Force, best organised to deal with the tasks it will face in the future."

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Army Capabilities

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Concluding Thoughts

• War in its classical form has not gone away, but is less likely today.

• Wars over resources and after great environmental upheavals are highly probable.

• Grand Strategists must continue to look forward holistically.

• Militaries must adapt in order to serve policy, as driven by the strategic environment.

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Questions

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