Climate Change Science for Policy Making and Public Participation Yap Kok Seng Malaysian Meteorological Department Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation Association of Space Explorers XXIII.

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Transcript Climate Change Science for Policy Making and Public Participation Yap Kok Seng Malaysian Meteorological Department Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation Association of Space Explorers XXIII.

Climate Change Science for
Policy Making and Public
Participation
Yap Kok Seng
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Ministry of Science, Technology & Innovation
Association of Space Explorers XXIII Planetary Congress
Technical Session: The Impact of Climate Change on Human Welfare
8 Oct 2010
MMU, Cyberjaya, Malaysia
OUTLINE
 Climate Change Science
 Climate Change Impacts in the
tropics
 UNFCCC Negotiations
 Public Outreach and Participation
Climate Change Science
Projected climate change depends on:
 Development pathway of
the world
 population growth and
consumption patterns
 energy sources &
consumption (e.g. fossil fuel
usage)
 Land use change
 technological change
Future Climate Change Projections:
Based on IPCC’s SRES Marker Scenarios
5
Comparison between TAR (left) and AR4 (right) results
SRES → Global sea level rise of 18 - 59
cm at the end of the 21st Century
(2090 - 2100)
Projected future changes vary spatially
(Comparisons are with 1980-1999)
in 2090-99
Regional changes
(+/-) of up to 20%
in average rainfall
And also…
• Increase in heavy
rainfall (very likely)
• Increase in
drought (likely)
Projected Patterns of Temperature Changes
However rainfall details vary
from model to model !
2090-2099:
• Global average
warming: 2.8oC
• Increase in hot
extremes and heat
waves (very likely)
Source: IPCC AR4 WG1
Projected Rainfall Changes (%) for the Early 21st Century (2020 – 2029) Relative to the
Period 1990-1999 (Last Decade of the 20th Century) Based on SRES A1B
Projected Rainfall Changes (mm)
Relative to the Baseline (1961-1990) for Sarawak
from Nine AOGCMs, Based on SRES A1B
500
400
Nine GCM (10-year Running Mean)
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
2005
2015
2025
2035
2045
2055
2065
2075
2085
YEAR
HADCM3,Hadley Centre
FGOALS China
GFCM20 NOAAA
MRCGCM MRI Japan
NCPCM NCAR, USA
CNCM3 Meteo-France
MPEH5 Max Planck
CSMK3 CSIRO
MIHR JAMSTEC
2095
AOGCMs to Regional Impacts/Adaptive Responses: Modelling Path
AOGCM & AGCM
simulates the response
of the global circulation
to large scale forcings
(e.g. GHG radiative
forcing)
PRECIS (50km / 25 km)
Nested RCM simulates
The effect of sub-GCM
scale regional forcings
(e.g. topography, veg. ..)
It is important to stress that
when used in one-way mode:
 nested RCMs are not
expected to correct large
errors in the GCM forcing
fields; but
 mostly to add fine-scale
regional information to the
large scale climate signal
Climate Change Impacts
in the tropics
Climate Change impacts on important sectors
Agriculture
Coastal Resources
Water Resources
Public Health
Forestry
Settlements
Other changes include …
Glacial Melting
Ocean Acidification
Coral
Bleaching
Wx and Climate
extremes
NORTH ATLANTIC THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION
approximately 25% reduction by end of 21st century
Shift towards “El Nino” like
The strongest El Nino was in 1997/1998
A strong El Nino is overdue
Under Warmer Future Climate:
• Weak shift towards average background conditions which may be
described as “El Nino” like
• Eastward shift in mean precipitation
• Weakened tropical Circulation
• Continued inter-annual variability of ENSO
UNFCCC Negotiations
CO2 emissions from fossil fuel and
cement manufacturing – 2007
(thousands of tons of CO2)
• Malaysia’s emission 0.66 % of world emissions
• Emissions per capita is about 7.2 tons
• With forest sinks, the emission is near net zero
YEAR
Estimated Targeted
population CO2 e
emissions
(Gtons)
Targeted
emissions
per capita
(Tons)
2010
6.909 bil
52
7.52
2020
7.675 bil
44
5.73
2030
8.309 bil
35
4.21
From Bali Action Plan, 2007 to Cancun 2010
Parties to reach agreement by the end of 2009 on effective,
feasible, and fair actions beyond 2012 to address risks of
climate change driven by human-related emissions of
greenhouse gases (GHG), focusing on four elements:
 Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions
 Adaptation to impacts of climate change


Financial assistance to developing countries
Technology development and transfer to
developing countries
The Relationship between
Key Climate Bodies & Current Negotiations
IPCC
Targets,
Timetables, &
Flexible Mechanisms
UN Framework Convention on
Climate Change
Kyoto
Protocol
AWG-KP
AWG
Long-term
Cooperative
Action
Global
Environment
Facility
Bali Plan of Action:
(2007)
- shared vision
- mitigation
- adaptation
- tech transfer
- financing
Political Agreement
COP15: Copenhagen
Legal Agreement
COP16 & Beyond
Copenhagen Accord : Mitigation
• Agreement to limit temperature rise to not more than 2 degrees C
from pre-industrial times
• Agreement on a differentiated registry where developed countries
would register targets and key developing countries would register
actions by January 31st 2010. These actions would be reviewed.
Status of pledges :
• 138 countries, including the 27-member EU, are likely to or have
engaged with the accord, representing 86.76% of global emissions
• 8 countries will not engage with the accord, representing 2.09% of
global emissions
• 47 countries have not responded
http://www.usclimatenetwork.org/policy/copenhagen-accord-commitments
25
Copenhagen Accord : Financing
• Developed countries would raise funds of $30 billion
from 2010-2012 of new and additional resources
• Agrees a "goal" for the world to raise $100 billion per
year by 2020, from "a wide variety of sources", to help
developing countries cut carbon emissions (mitigation).
New multilateral funding for adaptation will be delivered,
with a balanced governance structure
• Establishes a Copenhagen Green Climate Fund, as an
operating entity of the financial mechanism, "to support
projects, programme, policies and other activities in
developing countries”. To this end, creates a High Level
Panel (Ban Ki Moon)
26
Public Outreach & Participation
Conserve and stop wasting
All electrical appliance in
room are switched off when
room is vacant
Using energysaving bulbs
Solar panel for water
heating
Conserve
water
Switch off unnecessary
electrical appliance in
house and office
Water tanks for
harvesting rain
water
3R
Reduce
Reuse
Recycle
Use environmentally friendly public transport
Efficient
Feeder Bus
Route Network
The NGV
Powered IntraCity Bus & Taxi
Light Rail
Transit
(LRT)
Commuter &
ERL
Sustainable Living Environment: Keep the
environment green and clean
Forest Conservation
It is
our
responsibility
to keep
Earth Safe !
Thank you!