Transcript Budget Decisions in Times of Fiscal Constraint

Louisiana Postsecondary Education
Review Commission
Paul E. Lingenfelter, President
State Higher Education Executive Officers
August 10, 2009
Figure 1: 1973 Labor Force Degree
Analysis
Graduate Degree
7%
Bachelor's Degree
9%
High School
Dropouts
32%
Some College
12%
Labor force in 1973:
91 million
High School
Graduates
40%
Source: March CPS
Source: Analysis of March CPS data, 1973 to present, Center on Education
and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018.
1973
Center on Education and the Workforce
Figure 2: With stimulus package,
employment growth set to resume in 2011
Jan 80-Jul
80
recession
163.9
Dec 07present
recession
Mar 01Nov 01
recession
147.2
146.0
143.6
Jul 81Nov82
Jul 90Nov 91
Start of
Stimulus
121.0
96.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce’s
Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) Long-term Economic Outlook, March 2009
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Center on Education and the Workforce
Figure 3: 2007 Labor Force Degree
Analysis
Bachelor's Degree
21%
Graduate Degree
11%
High School
Dropouts
11%
Associate's Degree
10%
Some College
17%
Labor force in 2007:
154 million
High School
Graduates
30%
Source: March CPS
2007
Source: Analysis of March CPS data, 1973 to present, Center on Education
and the Workforce forecasts of education demand to 2018.
Center on Education and the Workforce
Figure 4: The evidence suggests that jobs in the last 4 decades
have increasingly required post secondary education
79%
75
60
High School or Less
41%
45
32%
30
BA and above
27%
15
Some College and AA
11%
10%
0
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
Source: Current Population Survey, Various years
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Center on Education and the Workforce
Figure 5: Least educated are most vulnerable in economic
downturns (unemployment rates by education)
20.0%
Jul 81-Nov 82
Recession
Nov 73-Mar75
Recession
Mar 01-Nov 01
Recession
Jan 80-Jul 80
Recession
16.0%
Dec '07-present
Recession
Jul 90-Mar91
Recession
Less than 4 years of
High School
12.0%
10.1%
4 or more years of
High School, no College
8.0%
5.8%
All
4.6%
4.0% 2.9%
4.4%
Some college, 1-3 years
4.2%
2.1%
2.9%
BA and above
1.3%
0.0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, various years
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Center on Education and the Workforce
2008
Figure 6: College Participation by
Socioeconomic Status
College Participation
By Achievement Test
and Socioeconomic
Status Quartile
SES Quartile
Lowest
Highest
Highest
78%
97%
Lowest
36%
77%
Achievement
Quartile
Source: Access Denied, Department of Education, February 2001.
Figure 7: Degree Attainment by SAT
Scores and Socioeconomic Status
90%
BA+ Attainment Rate
80%
70%
60%
Top SES
50%
2nd SES
3rd SES
40%
Bottom SES
30%
20%
10%
0%
1200-1600 1100-1199 1000-1099
SAT Score
Source: Anthony Carnevale, Liberal Education, Fall 2008, p. 58.
800-999
400-799