Transcript CTE

National Association of State Directors of
Career Technical Education
Spring Meeting
Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce
April 9, 2009
Figure 1: The Business Cycle: We need to think about acting in a
recession as setting the grounds for recovery
Jan 80-Jul
80
recession
Mar 01-Nov 01
recession
160.5
158.5
158.0
146.7
148.0
144.9
141.9
138.0
Jul 81Nov82
Dec 07present
recession
Jul 90Nov91
MA Forecast
128.0
119.6
118.0
108.0
98.0
99.4
99.2
88.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: CEW’s Analysis of Macroeconomic Advisers (MA) Long-term Economic Outlook, January 2009
2010
2012
2014
2016
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 2:
Those with relatively lower levels of human capital are most
negatively affected by recessions
Unemployment by Education Level
20.0%
Jul 81-Nov 82
Recession
Nov 73-Mar75
Recession
Mar 01-Nov 01
Recession
Jan 80-Jul 80
Recession
16.0%
Dec '07-present
Recession
Jul 90-Mar91
Recession
Less than 4 years of
High School
12.0%
10.1%
4 or more years of
High School, no College
8.0%
5.8%
All
4.0%
4.6%
2.9%
4.4%
Some college, 1-3 years
4.2%
2.1%
2.9%
BA and above
1.3%
0.0%
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation (various years)
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 3:
Most current data on unemployment by education level
14
12.6%
12
Less than a high school
diploma
10
8.3%
8
7.4%
8.1%
High school graduates, no
college
7%
All
6
4.8%
Some college or associate
degree
4.7%
4
4.1%
3.8%
Bachelor's degree or higher
2
2.1%
0
Feb 08
Oct 08
Nov 08
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation (February 2009)
Dec 08
Jan 09
Feb 09
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 4:
Education Requirements for Stimulus Package Jobs
1,364
36,163
Post doctoral training (0.04%)
PhD (1%)
First professional degree
(1.4%)
50,658
9,633
Post master's certificate (0.3%)
168,494
Master's degree (5%)
Post-bachelor's certificate (1.4%)
49,936
Bachelor's degree (19%)
691,095
336,807
Associate degree (9%)
338,514
Some college no degree (9%)
Post-secondary certificate (8%)
287,303
High school graduate (34%)
1,258,637
High school dropout (12%)
445,396
3,675,000
Total
Source: O*NET Education and Training by Occupation
Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 5:
Many of the non-college jobs* in the stimulus package require employer-paid classroom
training which is often short and could be satisfied by job preparation
and other training
677,201
29%
586,000
25%
251,661
11%
286,609
12%
243,358
10%
146,360
6%
83,433
4%
None or short
demo
Short demo to 1
Month
1-3 months
3-6 months
6-12 months
1-2 years
2-4 years
61,228
3%
More than 4
years
*Non-college jobs include high school dropouts, high school graduates, post-secondary certificates and some college but no degree.
Source: Carnevale, Strohl and Smith’s analysis of O*NET Education and Training data by Occupation
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 6: Distribution of Education in Jobs, (1973, 1992, 2007, 2018)
Percentage of prime-age (25-54) employment
Bachelor's Degree
19%
Graduate Degree
7%
Bachelor's Degree
9%
High School
Dropouts
32%
High School
Dropouts
10%
Associate's Degree
8%
Some College
12%
Graduate Degree
10%
Labor force in 1992: 129 million
Labor force in 1973: 91 million
Some College
19%
High School
Graduates
40%
High School
Graduates
34%
1973
Source: March CPS
Bachelor's Degree
21%
Graduate Degree
11%
Source: March CPS
Bachelor's Degree
27%
High School
Dropouts
11%
1992
Graduate Degree
12%
High School
Dropouts
9%
Associate's Degree
10%
Labor force in 2007: 154 million
Labor force in 2018: 166 million
Associate's Degree
12%
Some College
17%
High School
Graduates
24%
High School
Graduates
30%
Some College
16%
Source: March CPS
2007
Source: CEW’s Analysis of March CPS data, various years
Source: CEW Forecasts of Education Demand
2018
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 7: On average, earnings follow the
hierarchy of educational attainment
$2004
$120,000
High school graduate
Some College
Vocational certificate
Associate degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Professional degree
Doctoral degree
$60,000
$0
TOTAL
Source: Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2004 Panel
Men
Women
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 8: But earnings also depend on field of study
50%
42% of AAs
earn less than
a Licenses
and
Certificates
43% of
Licenses and
Certificates
earn more than
an AA
27% of
License and
Certificates
earn more
than an BA
25%
31% of AAs
earn more
than a BA
23% of BAs
earn less than
Licenses and
Certificates
25% of BAs
earn less than
an AA degree
0%
Licenses and
Certificates
versus AA
Licenses and
Certificates
versus BA
AA degrees
versus BA
Source: National Educational Longitudinal Study, 2000
AA degrees
versus Licenses
and Certificates
BA degrees
versus Licenses
and Certificates
BA degrees
versus AAs
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
Figure 9: Sometimes Certificates are more valuable than AAs or even BAs
a Certificate in Engineering earns more than an AA in the Liberal Arts, Education
and Social and Natural Sciences and more than a BA in Education
120,000
Vocational Certificate*
Associate degree
Bachelor's degree
Master's degree
Earnings of
Engineering Certificate
2004$
80,000
46,596
40,000
0
TOTAL
Business
Computers Engineering Liberal arts
Source: Survey of Income and Program Participation, 2004 Panel
Social
science
Natural
science
Education
Other
Degree Type
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009
$0
Source: March CPS data, 2007
Legal Occupations
Transportation and Material
Moving Occupations
Production Occupations
Education, Training and
Library Occupations
Heathcare Support Occupations
Sales and Related Occupations
Community and Social
Services Occupations
Personal Care and Service
Occupations
Business and Related
Occupations
Office and Administrative
Support Occupations
Healthcare Practitioners and
Technical Occupations
Installation, Maintenance and
Repair Occupations
Food Preparation and Serving
Related Occupations
Building and Grounds Cleaning
and Maintenance Occupations
Management Occupations
Arts, Design, Entertainment,
Sports and Media Occupations
Farming, Fishing and Forestry
Occupations
Construction and Extraction
Occupations
Protective Services
Occupations
Computers and Mathematics
Occupations
Life, Physical and Social
Sciences Occupations
Architecture and Engineering
Occupations
Figure 10: Even when one receives an AA degree, there is
wide variation in the earnings
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
Carnevale, Strohl and Smith, 2009