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About complexity and knowledge
How order leads to chaos !
Prof dr Walter Baets
Euromed Marseille, Ecole de Management
The Nyenrode Institute for Knowledge Management and Virtual Education
Flatland: Edwin Abbott, 1884
A. Square meets the third dimension
Wanderer, your footprints are
the path, and nothing more;
Wanderer, there is no path,
it is created as you walk.
By walking,
you make the path before you,
and when you look behind
you see the path which after you
will not be trod again.
Wanderer, there is no path,
but the ripples on the waters
Antonio Machado,
Chant XXIX Proverbios y cantares,
Campos de Castilla, 1917
A very great musician came and stayed in our house,
He made one big mistake …
He was determined to teach me music
and consequently, no learning took place.
Nevertheless, I did casually pick up from him
a certain amount of stolen knowledge
Rabindranath Tagore
Sometimes small differences in the initial
conditions generate very large differences
in the final phenomena. A slight error in the
former could produce a tremendous error in
the latter.
Prediction becomes impossible; we have
accidental phenomena.
Poincaré in 1903
Taylor’s view on the brain
The computer: attempt to automate human thinking
Manipulating symbols
Represent the world
Modeling the brain
Simulate interaction of neurons
Intelligence = problem solving
Intelligence = learning
0-1 Logic and mathematics
Approximations, statistics
Rationalist, reductionist
Idealized, holistic
Became the way of building computers
Became the way of looking at minds
I
IT
Interior-Individual
Intentional
World of: sensation, impulses,
emotion, concepts, vision
Exterior-Individual
Behavioral
World of: atoms, molecules, neuronal
organisms, neocortex
Truthfulness
Truth
Justness
Functional fit
World of: magic, mythic, values
World of: societies, division of labour,
groups, families, tribes, nation/state,
agrarian, industrial and informational
Interior-collective
Cultural
WE
Ken Wilber: A Brief History of Everything
Exterior-Collective
Social
ITS
Complexity Theory
Sensitivity to initial conditions (Lorenz)
Xn+1 = a * Xn * (1 - Xn)
0.294
1.4
0.3
0.7
Cobweb Diagrams (Attractors/Period Doubling)
Xn+1 =  * Xn * (1 - Xn)
dX / dt =  X (1 - X)
(stepfunction)
(continuous function)
On the diagrams one gets:
• Parabolic curve
• Diagonal line Xn+1 = Xn
• Line connecting iterations
Lorenz curve (Butterfly effect)
Lorenz (1964) was finally able to materialize Poincaré’s claim
Lorenz weather forecasting model
dX / dt = B ( Y - X )
dY / dt = - XZ + rX - Y
dZ / dt = XY - bZ
Ilya Prigogine
• Non-linear dynamic models (initial state,
period doubling,….)
• Irriversibility of time principle
• Behaviour far away from equilibrium (entropy)
• A complex system = chaos + order
• Knowledge is built from the bottom up
Why can chaos not be avoided ?
• Social systems are always dynamic and
non-linear
• Measurement can never be correct
• Management is always a discontinuous
approximation of a continuous
phenomenon
Francesco Varela
• Self-creation and self-organization of
systems and structures (autopoièse)
• Organization as a neural network
• The embodied mind
• Enacted cognition
• Subject-object division is clearly artificial
• How do artificial networks operate (Holland)
Knowledge and learning
OADI-cycle/Individual learning
ASSESS
DESIGN
Environmental
response
OBSERVE
IMPLEMENT
Individual double-loop learning
Individual action
INDIVIDUAL MENTAL
MODEL &
FRAMEWORKS
Single-loop
learning
Organizational double-loop learning
ORGANIZATIONAL
ROUTINES &
SHARED MENTAL
MODELS
ENVIRONMENT
Organizational action
EXPERIENCES
CONTEXTUAL
KNOWLEDGE
INDIVIDUAL MENTAL
MODEL &
TACIT KNOWLEDGE
SHARING AND
COMMUNICATION
SHARED MENTAL
MODEL &
KNOWLEDGE
REPOSITORY
Contextualization







Real life
Databases
Procedures
Simulators
Executive seminars
Concepts
Theory
The Hybrid Business School
CASE BASED
REASONING
SYSTEM
ARTIFICIAL NEURAL
NETWORKS &
OTHER A.I.
TECHNIQUES
Sharing and
Communicating the
Emergent
 DATA BASES
 LEARNING
Learning Material
Expertise




COMMUNICATION
PLATFORM /
NEURAL NETWORKS
ENVIRONMENT
SIMULATORS
EXPERT SYSTEMS
COMPUTER BASED
TEACHING
VIDEOCONFERENCING
IT for the Hybrid Business School
Innovation as learning
Emotions
Internal
Facts
EXPERIENCES
Emotions
INDIVIDUAL MENTAL
MODEL
External
CONTEXTUAL
KNOWLEDGE
Individuals with
characteristics
(agents)
Individual
Collective
Emotions
SHARED MENTAL
MODELS
Interaction
Your
Your
knowledge
infrastructure
Yourknowledge
knowledgeinfrastructure
infrastructure
Ownership (search/learn principles)
Remains with those that use it
Those that want to learn decide what to learn
Just-in-time, just-enough
Culture
Learning platform
Turn XYZ
into a learning
culture (via
projects)
Provide an ICT
infrastructure
that allows full
access and
sharing
facilities
Rewarding
Content
What knowledge
to share:
•explicit
•implicit
•learned
Learning platform and search/learn principles
The knowledge net
Explicit knowledge (database)
Implicit knowledge (case base)
Case based reasoning system
Cases stored in an adapted way
A methodology for case analysis and storage
Corporate knowledge repository
Notion
Learned knowledge (case base)
Explicit knowledge that is enhanced via experience
Using the same methodology for implicit knowledge
Interviews with key knowledge owners
Open learning platform
Collaborative tools
Dedicated search engines
Accessibility for all
Open to connect ‘any’
application
Solution for e-learning
The user
with its learning
agenda
A TYPICAL MANAGEMENT DIPLOMA COURSE
3O % SELF-STUDY (learning-by-doing)
2O % WORKSHOPS
50 % PROJECT WORK
C
A HYPERTEXT
S DATABASE
E
S
CONCEPTS
INTERNET
INTRANET
PC
CD ROM
LEARNING/DATABASE SOFTWARE
EXECUTIVE
COURSES
WWW site
+ other knowledge applications
BOOKS
For a 18-24 months period
Workshops: 200 study hours
Innovative projects: 700 study hours
Virtual grouplearning: 600 study hours
Some interesting technologies
Artificial Neural Networks
Genetic Algorithms
Genetic Programming
Fuzzy Logic
Artificial life/Agent simulations
Negotiating Agents
Semantic Search Engines
Case Based Reasoning
Language technologies
Machine learning technologies
Conversational technologies
Methodology
Actions
(company-specific)
The Hybrid Business School
Building Blocks
Brainstorm
content
ICT
Knowledge platform
Practices
Implicit
knowledge
Search
engine
platform
culture
Ownership
learn/search
Learning Agenda
(Pers. Development)
Explicit
knowledge
learner
+
learning
agenda
4 Brainstorms
Project team
• Notion
• MD/HRM
• Line mgt
• IT
• Marketing/R&D
cases
IT/Application plan
Concepts
Outcomes
White Paper
(Board approval)
E-learning view
4 Action plans
(Board approval)
Infrastructure
(Plan)
Architecture
Some statements
Knowledge products can easily be copied (pharma example);
Information even faster
Is legal protection possible in the knowledge economy? (patents)
Protection on HIV drugs: ethics against law (South Africa)
Mobile phones: money is not made on the hardware, but
on the services
What is a company’s value added: is it learning or repetition
(can it be machine replaced ?)
Information against faster learning based innovation
I
IT
Interior-Individual
Intentional
World of: sensation, impulses,
emotion, concepts, vision
Exterior-Individual
Behavioral
World of: atoms, molecules, neuronal
organisms, neocortex
Truthfulness
Truth
Justness
Functional fit
World of: magic, mythic, values
World of: societies, division of labour,
groups, families, tribes, nation/state,
agrarian, industrial and informational
Interior-collective
Cultural
WE
Ken Wilber: A Brief History of Everything
Exterior-Collective
Social
ITS