Transcript Pandemic Flu - Clinton County, NY

Pandemic Flu
Preparation for individuals and
families
CDC
(Centers for Disease Control)
• www.cdc.gov
• click on the pandemic flu links
• Individuals and families planning
• Planning checklist for individuals and families
• Family guide, checklist and Information sheets
Pandemic Planning
Assumptions
• Everyone will be susceptible to the virus
• 30% of the overall population will get the
virus
• Highest among school aged children (40%)
• Decrease with age
• Working adults will be significantly affected
(20%) will be ill)
• Some people will carry the virus but will
not have symptoms of illness
Assumptions (continued)
• Fatalities will be more likely among certain
groups
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Infants
Elderly
Pregnant women
People with chronic medical problems
• Illness will be significant, however, even
among young healthy persons
• Working adults
Assumptions (continued)
• Absenteeism
• May reach 40% due to
• Illness
• Need to care for ill family members
• Fear of infection
• Public health measures may necessarily
increase the rate of absenteeism
• Closing schools
• Quarantine of household contacts
Assumptions (continued)
• Incubation Period
• Time between being exposed to the virus and
having symptoms will be about 2 days
• Persons with virus can spread it to others
even before they have symptoms
• Children will shed the greatest amount of
virus and pose the greatest risk of
transmission
Assumptions (continued)
• In any particular community the pandemic
outbreak will last 6-8 weeks
• Depending on the fatality rate, the effects of the
pandemic will last longer
• Waves of outbreaks across country may last 2-3
months
• Largest waves usually occur in Fall and Winter
• Pandemic may act differently - may occur in a different
season
Illness, health care usage and death
(Estimates based on past pandemics)
• Ilness
• Around 90 million persons - 1/3 of population
• Outpatient medical care
• 45 million - 1/2 of those that are sick
• Hospitalization
• 1 million to 10 million persons
• ICU 128,000 to 1.5 million
• Mechanical ventilators - 65,000 to 750,000
• Deaths
• 200,000 to 2 million
Why is a pandemic different?
• Result of a new type of flu virus
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No natural immunity in population
Vaccines would not prevent infection
Longer lasting
Even healthy adults at risk for serious complications
• Widespread
• Would affect every level of society because such a high
proportion of people would be ill at same time
• Would affect all communities
• Limited ability of one community to help another
History
• 3 Pandemics in past century
• 1918
• Most severe
 Almost 675,000 deaths in US
 50 Million worldwide
• 1957
• Moderately severe
 70,000 US deaths and 1-2 million worldwide
• 1968
• Least severe
 34,000 US deaths and 700,000 worldwide
 Normally about 20-36,000 die from flu/year
Challenges/Disruptions
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Essential services
Food and water supplies
Schools and daycares
Medical care for chronic illnesses
Challenges/Disruptions
Essential Services
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Hospitals/Healthcare facilities
Banks/ATMs
Restaurants
Gov’t offices
Phone companies
Post offices/Delivery services
Stores
Challenges/Disruptions
Public gatherings
• Meetings
• Prepare/distribute contact lists
• Email
• Conference calls
• Telephone chains
• Worship services
• Transportation limitations
• Public transportation limited
• Gas shortages
Planning
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Enough medications
Family emergency plans
Cash
Fuel and fuel containers
Essential supplies - decreased travel ability
Rotating care schedule for family
• Family requiring medical care
• Children
Food and Water
Problems
• Food distribution
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Farming/manufacturing
Wholesale
Transportation
Retail
• Decreased ability to go to stores
Food and Water
Planning
• Store 2 weeks of nonperishable food
• Foods that do not require refrigeration or preparation
using water (save for drinking)
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Nuts
Breads (freeze)
Dried fruit
Frozen meat and vegatables
Canned foods
Peanut butter
• Infant formulas
• Special diets for older persons
• Water - 2 weeks
• 1 Gallon per person per day
Workplace Problems
• May not be possible to work
• Transportation
• Decreased public gatherings
• Discuss with employer
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Staggered shifts
Work from home
Telecommuting
Conference call procedures
• Save for loss of income
Schools and Daycare
• Schools, colleges, daycare, preschool may be
closed to limit spread of illness
• Plan for children staying home for extended
periods of time
• Educational materials
• Entertainment
• Recreation
• Plan with teachers
• Lesson plans
• Internet based courses
Medical care
Problems
• Acute
• Emergency departments and clinics may be
able to handle only the worst cases
• Chronic
• Visiting nurses and medical supply companies
may have limited ability to function
• Drug stores may have limited supplies
• Hospitals may have limited resources
• Family care will be important
Medical Care
Planning
• Continue medications to avoid problems
• Ensure adequate supply of:
• Medications
• Other medical supplies (glucose test strips)
• Speak with dialysis and chemo providers
about plans to continue
Pandemic Influenza
Prevention and Treatment
• Stay Healthy
• Cover mouth and nose with tissue when coughing or
sneezing
• Wash hands
• Soap/Water
• Alcohol based cleaners
• Avoid close contact with sick persons
• If you are sick, stay away from others - especially
groups
• School
• Work
• Mall
Vaccination
• Influenza viruses change over time
• Only helps with prevention, not treatment
• Short prodromal period
• Vaccine cannot be develop until a pandemic
strain becomes identified
• Will take 4-6 months to develop
• Govt plans
 Develop vaccine to known strains
 Increase manufacturing capacity
Antivirals
• Antivirals are available to treat seasonal
influenza
• Not a cure but shortened and less severe
symptoms
• Unclear of how useful in pandemic flu
• Would not contain the spread but may
shorten the period of illness
• Government is stockpiling antivirals
• Prescription only
Stay informed
• Bad information develops easily in disaster
situations
• Refer to reliable data sources:
• www.pandemicflu.gov
• Centers for disease control hotline
 800-232-4636
• Local Health Department and local government
web sites
• News media
• Private physician
Questions and Answers
• Is it safe to eat poultry?
• Cooking destroys viruses and bacteria
• The US has trade restrictions with countries where bird
flu has been found in domestic poultry
• Guidelines for safe preparation:
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Wash hands
Separate raw poultry and juices from other food
Keep utensils and cutting boards clean
Use a food thermometer - cook to at least 165 degrees.
Questions and Answers (cont’)
• What types of birds carry bird flu?
• Avian influenza can infect a wide variety of
domestic and wild birds including migratory
birds.
Questions and Answers (cont’d)
• Will the flu shot protect against pandemic
influenza?
• The usual yearly flu vaccine will not protect
against pandemic influenza but can help avoid
the seasonal flu which will still be present and
causes 20,000 to 30,000 deaths a year.
• Get a pneumonia shot to help protect against
pneumonia.
• Make sure other immunizations are up-to-date.
What is being done to prepare?
• Monitoring birds for avian flu
• Working with WHO to detect pandemic flu early
if it occurs
• Improving manufacturing and testing of vaccines
• Supporting local governments in disseminating
information through summits like this one
• Encouraging and assisting agencies, businesses
and institutions in planning for the effects of a
pandemic
A different focus
• An influenza pandemic will be severely taxing to
society for a period of several months
• This will require a change in focus and priorities
• The usual institutions that we rely on will be overwhelmed and
will require that each person concentrate on providing
assistance to their family and neighbors
• Neighborhood organization
• Checking on elderly chronically ill
• Helping to care for children
• Volunteers that may be able to help
 Elderly people
 Single parent with small children
• Organized trips for fuel and water
 Drop offs