Transcript LCA of Electricity

Transport Coal or
Transmit Electricity?
Comparative Hybrid LCA
Joule Bergerson, Lester Lave,
Chris Hendrickson, Scott Matthews, Alex Farrell
Carnegie Mellon University
Thursday September 25, 2003
1
US Coal Supply and Population
A ton of coal is shipped by rail an average distance of 800 miles
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Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
2
Life Cycle of Coal-Fired Electricity
-resources
(land, coal etc.)
-equipment
-labor
Coal
Mining
-PM, CO and S
-dust
-erosion
-waste
-subsidence
-safety issues
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-water
-equipment
-labor
-rail system
-locomotives
-freight cars
-fuel consumption
-labor
Cleaning
Transport
of Coal
-PM, CO and S
-waste
-coal dust
-safety issues
-road wear
-coal losses
-facility
(materials, land etc.)
-water
-labor
Generation
-PM, CO2, SOx,
NOx
-thermal discharge
-ash sludge
-water
consumption
Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
-resources
-structure materials
-land
-labor
Transmission
Distribution
&
Use
-EMF
-noise
3
Tools
 Life
Cycle Analysis

SETAC – Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry
 Basic Framework for LCA
 Disadvantage: Time consuming and costly

EIOLCA – Economic Input-Output – Life Cycle Analysis
 US I-O tables with Environmental Impacts
 Disadvantage: Aggregation
 IECM


– Integrated Environmental Control Model
Customized power plant design
Disadvantage: does not include all phases of life-cycle
Solution: Hybrid Approach
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Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
4
EIOLCA example:
Transmission Construction
1.
Determine total economic input from sector

Prices Vary but $1 billion is a rough estimate
2.
Find IO category

“Other new construction” (110900)

Major Group 16: Heavy Construction Other Than Building Construction
Contractors
 SIC 1623 Water, Sewer, Pipeline, And Communications And Power Line
Transmission line construction-general contractors
$ 1 Billion
“Other New
Construction”
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EIOLCA Model
Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
Output
5
EIOLCA Output
Summary of eiolca.net Output
Effects
Electricity Used [Mkw-hr]
Energy Used [TJ]
Conventional Pollutants Released
[metric tons]
OSHA Safety [fatalities]
Greenhouse Gases Released
[metric tons CO2 equivalents]
Fertilizers Used [$ million]
Fuels Used [Terajoules]
Ores Used - at least [metric tons]
Hazardous Waste Generated
[RCRA, metric tons]
External Costs Incurred [median, $
million]
320
7100
16000
2.5
530000
0.4
6700
210000
CO2
CH4
N2O
MT
CO2E
MT
CO2E
MT
CO2E
MT
Sector
Total for all sectors
530000
480000
48000
460
Electric services (utilities)
190000
170000
20000
38
Blast furnaces and steel
mills
52000
48000
3800
23
Trucking and courier
services, except air
47000
42000
4600
80
Other new construction
42000
40000
2700
58
Cement, hydraulic
17000
15000
1500
8
Industrial inorganic and
organic chemicals
13000
11000
700
7
CO2E
20000
32
750
Weighted Toxic Releases and
Transfers [metric tons]
6300
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GWP
Total for
all sectors
Toxic Releases and Transfers
[metric tons]
Water Used [billion gallons]
Top 6 Sectors Contributing to GWP
Source: www.eiolca.net
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Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
6
Base Case Assumptions

Power Plants identical (SUPC – 40% efficiency, 75%
capacity factor)

Therefore base production ignored for comparison

1000 MW (plus compensation for 7% transmission
line losses)
 Approximately 1000 miles
 No siting difficulties or grade crossing upgrades
 Capital
 Rail – minimal new track capacity, new trains
 Transmission – new HVDC lines, substations
 Amortized over life of investment
(cost of capital 8%)
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Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
7
Base Case Economic Results
140
Annual Cost ($ million)))
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Capital
O&M
Fuel/Coal
Rail
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Externalities
Total
Transmission
Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
8
Scenario: New Rail Construction
250
Annual Cost ($ million)))
200
150
100
50
0
0
5
10
15
20
Percent of System Requiring New Rail (%)
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9
Scenario: Grade Crossings
Annual Cost ($ million)))
210
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
50
0
5
10
15
20
Percent of Grade Crossings Requiring Upgrade (%)
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Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
10
Scenario Analysis - Other
Scenario
Fuel Price
Cost of Capital
Distance
Carbon Tax
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Base Case
Break Even Value
$0.9/gallon
$6-7/gallon
8%
3-4%
1000 miles
600 - 700 miles
$0
as little as $5/ton
Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
11
Air Emissions (30 years)
80
Emissions MT l Thousands
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
SO2
CO
NO2
Rail
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VOC
PM10
GWP (millions
MT CO2e)
Transmission
Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
12
Energy, CO2 Emissions, Fuel Costs)
Comparative Annual Energy Consumption
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Energy (10^12 BTU)
CO2 (10^5 tons)
Rail
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Fuel Costs ($ 10^6)
Transmission
Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
13
Some Alternatives
Coal to Methane or Hydrogen
 Coal Slurry Pipeline
 AC Transmission
 High Temperature Superconductors
 Barge and Rail

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Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
14
Conclusions

From the current case there is no
economic/environmental gain in switching to
minemouth generation
 Some

scenarios change this result
Cost and environmental emissions from existing
system are significant
 Other
methods of transporting energy should be
investigated

Contribution has been made from developing a
method to compare alternative
transport/transmission scenarios in terms of
economic and environmental impact
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Carnegie Mellon University - Joule Bergerson
15
Thanks to Support from….
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