Transcript PowerPoint-presentatie - Atlantti

The European Security
Architecture in 2015
Pol De Witte
Helsinki, 5 October 2006
Atlantic Council of Finland in cooperation with the
Embassy of Belgium in Helsinki
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Introduction
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Why this theme?
Not limited to Europe, no “architecture”
“Preparing the future”
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Main sources:
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Initial Long-term vision for European
Defence Capability and Capacity Needs,
EDA, October 2006
Active Diplomacy for a Changing World,
FCO, March 2006
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Structure of the presentation
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Main factors driving international
developments
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Impact on military operations
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Impact on main international
players in the security realm (UN,
NATO, EU-ESDP, OSCE)
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1. Main factors driving
international developments
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Economy
Demography and migration
Pressure on resources
Climate change
Religion and identity
Poverty and poor governance
Security and conflict
Science and innovation
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Economy
Europe will continue to
grow modestly
China 2nd global economy
by 2015,
India 3rd by 2025
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Economy
GDP p.c. over
40.000 USD in EU,
Canada, Japan and
South Korea in
2015
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Demography
World population appx
7.5 bn by 2015
Population
of China and India
together 2.6 bn by 2015,
close to 2.9 bn by 2025
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Demography
Old age dependency
ratio by 2015:
26% in EU
10-11% in Asia and
Latin-America
7-8% in Africa,
Middle East and
North Africa
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Pressure on
resources
Demand for energy will
grow.
The Gulf will remain the
main oil-supplying region
but others (Russia and
countries in Central Asia,
West Africa and Latin
America) will have an
important role in a tight
market.
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Climate change
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Will result in higher average
surface temperatures and sea
levels in the next decade.
Some part of the world, including
Africa, will be worse hit than
others.
The impact of melting ice sheets
on sea levels will affect Antarctica
and Greenland.
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Religion and identity
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Democracy and the market economy
have spread across much of the world.
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But over the next decade they may be
challenged by alternative models of
development, whether based on
extreme religious or social ideologies
or on economic openness
inadequately matched by political
freedom.
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Religion and identity
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Rapid social and economic change
creates tension in all social societies,
especially on those which have not
shared in the benefits of globalisation.
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Some pursue extreme political and
social objectives under the guise of
religion.
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Countering the extremists’ message and
encouraging dialogue will be a key task.
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Poverty and poor governance
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Poverty, conflict, poor governance
and environmental degradation will
affect the lives of people more in a
number of countries in the world
unless tackled energetically.
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The Millennium Development Goals
will be missed unless countries show
greater commitment to meeting their
obligations
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Poverty and poor governance
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The international community will need to
reduce conflict, improve governance,
make globalisation work and provide
new resources for development.
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It is key to supporting the development
of effective and accountable
governments, able to provide security,
justice, opportunity and basic services
for their citizens, particularly in Africa.
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Security and conflict
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Major threats to our security stem
from terrorism, the proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction and
regional conflicts (failed states,
organised crime) (European
Security Strategy, 2003)
Conflict, particularly within states,
will not disappear and will be
driven by new pressures,
particularly on fragile states.
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Security and conflict
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Serious flashpoints will remain, e.g. in
Asia (Korean peninsula,
India/Pakistan, Afghanistan), in the
Middle East (Israel/Palestine, Iran,
Iraq), and in Africa (Sudan, DRC)
but…
…we need to stay engaged in the
Balkans and to work to establish
strong relations with Russia and our
other European neighbours.
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Science and innovation
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Information technology has been the
main driver and pushed forward
globalisation and its overall effects.
The risks are obvious: proliferation of
weapons of mass destruction, internet
exploited to propagate ideologies and
as communication network.
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Science and innovation
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Armed forces can expect the
universal availability of
communication and knowledge as
well as new levels of precision of
and protection against lethal
effects.
However, it will be even more
difficult in future for publics to
accept casualties.
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2. Impact on military operations
(NATO/ESDP)
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”Battlefield” of lesser significance
Operations will be influenced by “information
age”
Focus must be on expeditionary forces capable
of swiftly dealing with a wide array of threats
High intensity operations will remain as the
benchmark
More complex and comprehensive operations
Political, civil, economic and military efforts
must be coordinated (EBAO / CPA)
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Effects-Based Approach to
Operations (EBAO)
Developed by Allied Command Transformation
(AC-T)
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Involves the comprehensive integrated
application of all instruments of Alliance
power, both military and non-military, to
create campaign effects which will
achieve desired outcomes
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Concerted Planning and
Action (CPA)
Danish initiative
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Improve practical cooperation and
arrangements with other actors in NATO’s
operations and missions as well as our internal
procedures
Requires better coordination and consultation at
operational, strategic and institutional level;
further refinement of NATO’s internal
processes, incl. for operational planning
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3. Impact on main
international players (UN,
NATO, EU-ESDP, OSCE)
United Nations
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« A fork in the road » (Sep 2003)
« A more secure world: our shared
responsibility » (High Level Panel on
Threats, Challenges and Change,
December 2004)
« In larger freedom: towards
development, security and human rights
for all » (Report by SG Kofi Annan, March
2005)
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3. Impact on main
international players (UN,
NATO, EU-ESDP, OSCE)
United Nations
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Development, security and human rights
reinforce each other
Millennium Development Goals
Comprehensive collective action (States,
civil society, private sector, regional and
global intergov’tal institutions)
Peacebuilding Commission
Reinforcing (sub)regional organisations
UN as a catalyst.
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NATO:
Article 5 (threats of 21st century)
Increasingly dealing with stabilisation and
reconstruction
Demanding operations (EBAO /CPA) with robust
RoE
NATO Response Force
Enhanced relations with UN, EU, OSCE
Membership: 32+ (effect on decision making?)
Intensified dialogue / MAP
Partnerships (EAPC/PfP, MD, ICI, Contact
countries)
Division of labour with EU
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EU:
 ESDP being developed since 1999 (Helsinki)
 No Art 5, but mutual assistance and solidarity
 Effective multilateralism
 Enhanced relations with UN in crisis management
 Cooperation with regional organisations (e.g. African
Union) (local ownership)
 Major threats: terrorism, proliferation and regional
conflicts (ESS, 2003)
 Broad spectrum of tools (diplomacy, economic
assistance, civil and/or military crisis management
ops, Battle Groups)
 Membership: 28
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OSCE:
 Dependent on political will of all members
(consensus rule)
 Better balance between baskets: human;
political-military; economic/environmental
 Value added in carefully selected niche markets
(election observation, institution/capacity
building, cross-border projects (transport,
organised crime, smuggling), implementation of
international rules (e.g. UNSCR 1373)
 Laboratory for other regional organisations
 Membership: 60+
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Conclusion
Europe to be a global player.
A more secure world in 2015?
 Our shared responsibility
 Depends on political will of nations (rather
than of international organisations) and
increasingly on non-state actors
 The imperative of collective action.
 Importance of P-5 (US, China, Russia,
France, UK9)
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Other conclusion
In the twenty-first century, (…), the limits on the use of
American military power in achieving our national interests are
evident. A strong defense will not mitigate environmental
degradation, eliminate the resource scarcities – particularly that
of fresh water, brought on by massive population growth –
secure human rights; or prevent ethnic or religious conflict.
Military power will not end the scourge of AIDS, poverty,
global warming, desertification, and the human migrations that
result.
The world order we seek requires changes in human behaviour,
and to get there we need a willingness to work together
cooperatively to solve the problems we humans have created.
Cultural dialogue is the necessary condition.
Barry Fulton in « Net Diplomacy », July 23, 2001
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Questions…?
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