Transcript Session mobiles - DigiWorld by IDATE

www.idate.org
The European way to think the Digital World
Multiplay on Broadband
IDATE International Conference
Montpellier (France), 23 November 2005
Roland Montagne
Head of Broadband Practice, IDATE
[email protected]
www.idate.org
The European way to think the Digital World
Is the broadband market
still growing?
Broadband: global overview
www.idate.org
 Over
180
Million
broadband
subscribers Worldwide in mid-2005
vs. 130 M in mid-2004
 Steady growth: 51.5 Million
new broadband subscribers
between mid-2005 and mid2004 vs. 51 M for the same
period one year earlier
 Forecasts indicate over 200 Million
subscribers by the end of 2005
Growth of the world’s broadband
subscriber base (in millions)
200
182
180
160
130
140
Millions
120
100
79
80
60
40
20
0
mid-2003
mid-2004
mid-2005
Source: IDATE
23 November 2005
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Broadband: regional analysis
www.idate.org
 At the start of 2005,
European broadband subscribers
outnumbered North American
subscribers for the first time
 Growth in North America down
slightly in recent months
 Between mid-2004 and mid-2005,
Europe reported more new
broadband subscribers than Asia
Pacific (20.6 M vs. 18.6 M)
 But Asia Pacific remains the
world’s
largest
broadband
market, accounting for over 40%
of
the
globe’s
broadband
subscribers
Growth of the Broadband subscribers base,
by geographic zone (in millions)
Africa Middle East
Latin America
mid-2004
North America
Mid-2005
Europe
Asia-Pacific
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: IDATE
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Broadband penetration by country
www.idate.org
 South Korea remains the reference
in terms of broadband penetration
(25%)
 In Europe, the Netherlands &
Denmark are reporting penetration
rates close to Korea’s
Growth of Broadband penetration by country
28%
 Mid-2005, France reports a higher
penetration rate than the US (14%)
(mid-2003 – mid-2005)(1)
24%
20%
16%
12%
8%
4%
(1) Number of broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitant
23 November 2005
IDATE © 2005
USA
Japan
South Korea
China
Sweden
UK
Netherlands
Italy
France
Spain
Germany
0%
Source: IDATE
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Broadband access technologies
www.idate.org
 Migration from dial-up to broadband stepped up in in 2005
 In 2005 DSL remained the number one broadband access technology
in Europe and Asia
 Only exception: the USA where DSL is gaining ground but still behind
broadband cable
Percentage of broadband subscribers / dialup subscribers
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
USA
Japan
South Korea
China
Sweden
UK
Netherlands
Italy
France
Spain
Germany
0%
Source: IDATE
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www.idate.org
The European way to think the Digital World
Broadband’s hot issues in 2005
From Broadband to Very High-Speed
 The bandwidth race likely to continue
www.idate.org
- Continuing fierce competition and roll-out of new technologies: ADSL2+, FTTN + VDSL2,
FTTH/Ethernet, plus DOCSIS2 for cable modem
- Several applications will drive demand for bandwidth: HDTV, multiple video channels, Home
Gateways, videophony, video IM,…
 In Korea and Japan migration to very high-speed is already a reality
- Population density
- Government support
- Attractive prices
 In the US, RBOCs are deploying FTTx architecture
-
FCC’s decision not to unbundle fibre
Competition with cable modem
Length of the local loop
1.6 M homes passed by FTTx in mid-2005 (chiefly SBC and Verizon)
 In Europe, following the pioneers (Fastweb, B2) first deployments by local
authorities and public utilities
 Incumbents taking a keen interest in FTTx technologies
 Recent major announcement by Deutsche Telekom (VDSL)
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Competition & Consolidation in Europe
www.idate.org
Growth of Unbundled DSL
31/12/2002
France
30/12/2004
30/06/2005
3 000
273 000
722 000
1591 000
2330 000
0%
8%
16%
25%
30%
175 000
445 000
585 000
870 000
1500 000
6%
10%
11%
13%
18%
52 000
240 000
337 000
450 000
625 000
6%
11%
10%
10%
11%
50 000
232 000
330 000
462 000
582 000
% of DSL lines
Germany
% of DSL lines
Italy
% of DSL lines
Netherlands
% of DSL lines
Spain
30/06/2004
14%
24%
24%
25%
25%
3 000
16 000
42 000
114 000
297 000
% of DSL lines
Sweden
0%
1%
2%
4%
9%
9 000
30 000
73 000
210 000
300 000
% of DSL lines
United Kingdom
31/12/2003
2%
5%
11%
24%
25%
2 000
8 000
28 000
47 000
75 000
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
% of DSL lines
DSL Market shares end 2004
100%
90%
1%
2%
9%
14%
3%
10%
10%
19%
4%
22%
10%
13%
80%
4%
14%
22%
11%
 Disparate situations around Europe
- DSL dominates (little competition except
Benelux, Austria, Portugal, the UK)
- European incumbents’ market share
varies a great deal
- Consolidation underway, but mainly on a
national scale
Source: IDATE
1%
13%
13%
19%
20%
6%
16%
25%
27%
26%
25%
30%
46%
20%
70%
16%
60%
51%
10%
24%
 After a major drop over 2 years,
broadband prices appear to be
levelling off
28%
50%
89%
40%
83%
80%
80%
78%
76%
75%
75%
69%
30%
67%
67%
64%
57%
 Unbundling now the primary means
of development for alternative
operators in Europe… from shared
access to full unbundling in 2006
55%
53%
51%
20%
47%
43%
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IDATE © 2005
 Should LLU obligations be upheld
for VDSL/FTTx platforms?
Greece
France
Netherlands
ULL
UK
Norway
Wholesale
Iceland
Sweden
DSL market share incumbent
Average
Austria
Spain
Luxembourg
Denmark
Italy
Ireland
Finland
Germany
Portugal
0%
Belgium
10%
Source: IDATE
for DG InfSo
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Ubiquitous Triple Play?
And even Quadruple Play?
www.idate.org
 Triple play bundles are increasingly
common around the globe... distinguishing
Trends in the positioning of the various
players in terms of the service offering
oneself from the competition and moving beyond
mere pipeline operator
Mobile telephony
Fixed telephony
Internet access
TV
 Often initiated by new entrants (Fastweb,
Softbank, Free), with a major contribution
from VoIP in Japan,… significant impact on TV
Telecoms
operators
Access providers
package distribution in France, stand-off with cable
in the US and with DTH in the UK
Cable operators
 Beyond common trends, it is interesting to
note what distinguishes the offers: pricing,
Key
Core
competence
Short-term extension of offering
Mid-term extension of offering
Source: IDATE
pick-up of existing satellite packages vs. packages
created by telcos, HDTV, rights acquisition, VoD...
How far will operators go?
 Prominence of home networking offers, integrating Wi-Fi/Bluetooth interfaces in the routers, DECT and
cellular telephony (Quadruple play), interconnection of TVs, cameras, music, hard drive... Value no longer resides
in the abundance of content, but in user-friendliness and interoperability
 Devising the right positioning for triple play bundles, going head to head with internet heavyweights
(compete or share with Google, Yahoo! Skype/eBay, MSN…)
 Two major areas of uncertainty for telcos:
1) Percentage of broadband subscribers opting for Triple Play
2) increasing ARPU (from 30 EUR to 80 EUR)
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Japan: Key points
www.idate.org
Growth of broadband subscribers
25 000 000
 16% broadband penetration rate at the end of June
2005. DSL comfortably in number one spot
20 000 000
15 000 000
 ASDL services marketed in Japan offer bitrates of
up to 50 Mbps, with sizeable decreases in tariffs,
especially for such high speeds
10 000 000
5 000 000
 8.3 million IP telephony users in March 2005
(+57% YoY), with a 64.8% market share for Softbank
0
12/ 01
06/ 02
12/ 02
06/ 03
DSL market share (‘wholesale’)
in Japan (June 2005)
Other (TOKAI Group,
Heisei Denden, pow er
companies...)
4%
06/ 04
12/ 04
06/ 05
Market share, by technology
(June 2005)
FTTx
16%
NTT East
21%
Yahoo! BB
35%
NTT West
18%
ACCA Netw orks
9%
12/ 03
 With a base of 3.2 million subscribers in mid-2005,
FTTH is the number two broadband access mode in
Japan, and has overtaken cable
Cable
modem
14%
DSL
70%
eAccess
13%
 Growth of FTTx subscribers higher than DSL
growth since the start of 2005 (+ 100K/month)
 Regulation: both copper pair and fibre optic
unbundling (up to the final active optical gear). NTT
seeking changes to current regulations
Source: IDATE
23 November 2005
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Key questions
www.idate.org
1
2
HDTV, VOD... Changing relationship between access
providers and broadcasters? Impact on ARPU?
Will telcos succeed in their bid to market & manage Digital
Home Gateways: user-friendliness/interoperability/security
issues ?
3
Very High-speed broadband (FTTx): For which applications?
Who will invest and under what conditions ?
4
Strategy/partnerships with Internet portals: Google, MSN,
eBay/Skype...
5
Impact of fixed-mobile convergence: 3G/WiFi today &
WiMAX (802.16e) soon? Quadruple play?
23 November 2005
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