Transcript IDATE Club International Seminar

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The European way to think the Digital World
The Future of Telephony
IDATE International Conference
Montpellier (France), 25 November 2004
Didier POUILLOT
Head of Industrial Analyses Department
IDATE
Traditional fixed telephony is declining…
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Decline in fixed access lines
and related traffic
2001- 2004:
- 15 million access lines in the USA
- 6 million in Western Europe
Drop in fixed telephony revenues
(in billion USD)
160
Source: IDATE
120
80
Decrease in tariffs
due to technology,
competition, etc
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2001
2002
USA
2003
Western Europe
Internet Act II and the Future of Telephony
2004
Japon
2
... due to multiple factors
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 Mobile substitution
Breakdown of world telecom service markets
1995
2003
Source: IDATE
1985
Fixed telephony
Mobile services
Fixed data (incl. Internet)
 Development of emails
 Emergence of VoIP
…
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Internet Act II and the Future of Telephony
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Key Questions
www.idate.org
1
Telephony: an application rather than a service?
Assuming that telephony will no longer be a service in the near future but an
application, what about the economy of the access market?
2
Telcos: the search for more value added?
Can the access providers, and notably the incumbent telcos, get enough money
from their traditional activities or are they forced to move to more value added
operations? What about the development of new services (videotelephony, …)?
3
Can new players emerge?
Who are they? What about their positioning?
4
The impact of broadband technologies?
What about the combinations of present broadband technologies (DSL, cable
modem, mobile 3G…) with emerging ones (WiFi…)? Impact on operators’
positioning and business models?
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IDATE © 2004
Internet Act II and the Future of Telephony
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