Transcript Folie 1

TRANS-CSP
NREA
Study Project
TRANS-CSP
Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection
for Concentrating Solar Power (WP02 Scenario)
Project for the Research & Development Programme of the German
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear
Safety (BMU)
TRANS-CSP
WP02 Scenario
Scope:
Develop a sustainable scenario for power generation
in Europe taking into consideration the transfer of
solar electricity from MENA
Result:
A well balanced mix of renewables with fossil fuel
backup can provide low cost, secure and compatible
electricity for Europe. Solar electricity imports can
significantly reduce the electricity cost.
TRANS-CSP
Driving Force for Electricity Demand: Growth of Economy
Scandinavia
Eastern Europe
60
Czech
Republic
40
35
30
Hungary
25
20
Poland
15
10
Slowac
Republic
5
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Per Capita GDP [1000 €/cap/y]
Per Capita GDP [1000 €/cap/y]
45
50
Denmark
Finland
40
Iceland
30
Norway
Sweden
20
10
0
2000
2050
2010
2020
South-Eastern Europe
40
BosniaHerzegowina
Bulgaria
35
30
25
Croatia
20
Macedonia
15
Romania
10
Serbia &
Montenegro
Slowenia
5
2030
Year
2040
2050
Portugal
Per Capita GDP [1000 € /cap/y]
Per Capita GDP [1000 € /cap/y]
Turkey
2020
2050
60
Greece
45
2010
2040
Western Europe
50
0
2000
2030
Year
Year
Spain
50
Italy
Austria
40
Belgium
30
France
Germany
20
Ireland
Netherlands
10
Switzerland
United Kingdom
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
TRANS-CSP
Driving Force for Electricity Demand: Population
700
600
Population (million)
500
400
300
200
100
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Slowenia
Serbia & Montenegro
Greece
Turkey
Croatia
Macedonia
Bulgaria
Bosnia-Herzegowina
Romania
Slowac Republic
Poland
Hungary
Czech Republic
Sweden
Norway
Denmark
Iceland
Finland
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Ireland
Germany
France
Belgium
Austria
Italy
Spain
Portugal
TRANS-CSP
Driving Force for Electricity Demand:
Electricity Intensity
Electricity/Capita [kWh/cap]
100000
10000
2040
2020
1000
2000
Year
1980
100
y=axb
1960
10
Fitting Empirical Data
of 25 (150) Countries
1
1
10
GDP/Capita [1000 US$ 1996 PPP]
100
TRANS-CSP
Development of the Per Capita Electricity Demand
Scandinavia
Eastern Europe
30000
Czech
Republic
6500
6000
Hungary
5500
5000
Poland
4500
4000
Slowac
Republic
3500
3000
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Per Capita Power Demand [kWh/cap/y]
Per Capita Power Demand [kWh/cap/y]
7000
25000
Denmark
Finland
20000
Iceland
15000
Norway
Sweden
10000
5000
0
2050
2000
2010
2020
Year
2040
2050
South-Eastern Europe
Western Europe
Portugal
Spain
9000
Italy
8000
Austria
Belgium
7000
France
6000
Germany
Ireland
5000
Netherlands
4000
Switzerland
United Kingdom
3000
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
Per Capita Power Demand [kWh/cap/y]
8000
10000
Per Capita Power Demand [kWh/cap/y]
2030
Year
Greece
7000
Turkey
6000
5000
BosniaHerzegowina
Bulgaria
4000
Croatia
Macedonia
3000
Romania
2000
Serbia &
Montenegro
Slowenia
1000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
TRANS-CSP
Gross Electricity Demand in the Analysed Countries
4500
Historical Data
Scenario TRANS-CSP
Gross Electricity Consumption TWh/y
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
Switzerland
Norway
Iceland
Bosnia-Herzegowina
Serbia & Montenegro
Romania
Macedonia
Bulgaria
Turkey
Sweden
Croatia
Finland
Greece
Hungary
Slowenia
Slowac Republic
Czech Republic
Poland
Italy
Ireland
United Kingdom
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
France
Portugal
Spain
TRANS-CSP
Plenty Renewable Energy Resources in EUMENA
In brackets: (Typical Yield in GWhel/km²/y)
Biomass (1)
Geothermal Energy (1)
Wind Energy (30)
Hydropower (30)
Solar Energy (250)
Every 10 km² in MENA
yield 15 million barrels
of fuel oil per year in
form of solar energy
TRANS-CSP
Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials vs. Demand in EUMENA
16000
> 630 000
Solar
Electricity in TWh/y
14000
Geothermal
12000
Sustainable Mix ?
10000
Hydro
Wind
8000
Biomass
6000
Wave/Tide
Desalination
4000
MENA
2000
Europe
0
Potentials
Demand 2000
Demand 2050
TRANS-CSP
Parameters for Electricity Cost Calculation in the Scenario
TRANS-CSP
Specific Investment
(Example Spain)
Specific Investment
of Power Technologies
(Example Spain)
10000
Specific Investment [$/kW]
9000
Photovoltaics
Wind
Geothermal
Hydropower
Biomass
Wave / Tidal
CSP Plants
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
Nuclear power: increasing cost of waste disposal and security
TRANS-CSP
Electricity Cost
of Power
Technologies
(Example Spain)
Electricity
Cost
(Example Spain)
40
Photovoltaics
Wind
Geothermal
Hydropower
Biomass
Wave / Tidal
CSP Plants
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Import Solar
Electricity Cost [c/kWh]
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
CO2 Capture and Sequestration (CCS) included in fossil fueled generation costs after 2020
CSP in solar only operation
TRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP:
Electricity
in Europe
Electricity
Production Generation
and Import All Countries
4500
Import Solar
Import Other
Photovoltaics
Wind
Geothermal
Hydropower
Biomass
Wave / Tidal
CSP Plants
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
4000
Electricity [TWh/y]
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
5 resources,
mostly imported and limited

10 resources,
mostly domestic and unlimited
TRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP: Import Dependency vs. Current Trend
90%
Share of Total Electricity
80%
Import Dependency
in the TRANS-CSP
Scenario
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
Current Trend of
Import Dependency
20%
10%
0%
2000
2010
2020
2030
Year
2040
2050
TRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP:Installed
Installed
Capacity in Europe
Capacity All Countries
1400
1400
Import Solar
Import Other
1200
Photovoltaics
Wind
1000
Geothermal
Hydropower
800
Biomass
Wave / Tidal
600
CSP Plants
Oil
400 Gas
Coal
200 Nuclear
Peak Load
0
Power Capacity [GW]
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
At any time, peak power demand is covered with an extra
25 % reserve of firm power capacity
TRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP delivers Power on Demand:
Peaking vs. Fluctuating Capacity
TRANS-CSP
A Well Balanced Mix provides Firm Power on Demand
Hourly time series modelling of power supply in the TRANS-CSP scenario
Germany, Winter Week 2050
90
80
Power [GW]
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
19.11.
Cogen Fossil
Pump Storage
20.11.
21.11.
22.11.
PV, Wind
Peaking Plants (fossil)
23.11.
24.11.
Bio., Geo., Hydro.
RES Surplus
25.11.
Import CSP
TRANS-CSP
A Well Balanced Mix provides Firm Power on Demand
Capacity Balance Germany 2050
Deficit and Surplus Capacity [GW]
15
10
5
0
Deficit
Surplus
-5
-10
required
peaking
capacity
-15
-20
-25
0
2000
4000
Hour of Year
6000
8000
TRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP
Renewable Energy Resource Indicators
FLh
Annual Full Load Hours
THDR
Temperature of Hot Dry
Rocks in 5000 m Depth
DNI
Direct Normal Irradiance
GTI
Global Irradiance on
Surface tilted by Latitude
Resource
Indicator
Unit
Austria
Cyprus
Denmark
Finland
France
Czech Republic
Belgium
Ireland
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Poland
Bulgaria
Slowac Republic
Slowenia
Germany
Hungary
Greece
Italy
Malta
Portugal
Spain
Turkey
Macedonia
Croatia
Romania
Serbia & Montenegro
Bosnia-Herzegowina
Iceland
Norway
Hydro
Flh
h/y
3608
0
2818
4933
2838
1100
4466
2264
789
2432
4852
2894
1857
1881
1667
2000
4419
3667
3771
1331
2502
0
2589
1705
2762
2667
2823
3086
3715
3091
6038
5164
Geo
THDR
°C
200
100
100
100
200
100
100
100
100
180
180
100
180
180
180
180
180
180
220
213
200
100
213
213
281
100
180
190
220
100
400
100
Bio
CSP
FLh
DNI
h/y kWh/m²/y
4500
820
3500
2200
5000
950
5500
950
4500
1060
4500
760
4500
700
4500
700
4500
700
4500
700
4500
1070
4500
990
4500
660
4500
790
5500
1070
4500
750
4500
860
4500
900
4500
1100
3500
1900
3500
2000
3500
2000
3500
2100
4500
2250
3500
2000
4500
1100
4500
940
4500
1200
4500
1250
4500
1100
4500
810
5000
580
Wind
PV
FLh
GTI
h/y kWh/m²/y
897
1380
900
2100
1736
1180
1316
1180
633
1560
1143
1130
1444
1140
1610
1120
1500
1130
1786
1120
1602
1240
1000
1170
2184
1100
1000
1140
900
1510
900
1430
900
1250
1709
1260
900
1370
1517
1730
1600
1800
900
2150
3620
1910
2325
2020
2000
1900
900
1450
900
1400
900
1500
900
1550
900
1450
900
970
1923
850
Wa/Ti
FLh
h/y
0
4000
4000
4000
4000
0
4000
4000
0
4000
4000
0
4000
4000
0
0
4000
4000
0
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
4000
0
4000
4000
4000
4000
TRANS-CSP
Renewable Electricity Potentials in TWh/y
Austria
Cyprus
Denmark
Finland
France
Czech Republic
Belgium
Ireland
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Poland
Bulgaria
Slowac Republic
Slowenia
Germany
Hungary
Greece
Italy
Malta
Portugal
Spain
Turkey
Macedonia
Croatia
Romania
Serbia & Montenegro
Bosnia-Herzegowina
Iceland
Norway
Total
Total
Hydro
Tech.
Econ.
56,0
56,0
24,0
1,0
0,0
0,0
20,0
20,0
72,0
72,0
4,0
3,0
0,3
0,5
1,0
1,3
n.a.
0,9
0,1
0,1
130,0
90,0
41,0
38,0
7,8
7,8
14,0
7,0
15,0
12,0
7,0
6,0
9,0
8,0
26,0
26,0
5,0
4,0
15,0
12,0
105,0
65,0
n.a.
n.a.
33,0
20,0
70,0
41,0
216,0
122,0
6,0
4,0
9,0
8,0
36,0
18,0
27,0
27,0
24,0
19,0
64,0
40,0
200,0
178,0
908
908
Geo
Tech.
Econ.
n.a.
3,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
9,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0,9
n.a.
0,9
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0,2
n.a.
1,0
n.a.
0,6
n.a.
1,7
n.a.
0,3
120,0
45,0
n.a.
25,9
n.a.
4,7
n.a.
15,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
7,0
n.a.
18,0
n.a.
150,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0,6
n.a.
0,5
n.a.
2,1
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
91,2
n.a.
n.a.
378
378
Bio
Tech.
Econ.
n.a.
10,8
n.a.
0,5
n.a.
6,9
n.a.
20,4
n.a.
86,2
n.a.
8,7
n.a.
6,5
n.a.
8,9
n.a.
0,5
n.a.
10,0
n.a.
24,5
n.a.
3,1
n.a.
39,3
n.a.
34,3
n.a.
18,4
n.a.
4,6
n.a.
2,0
n.a.
71,4
n.a.
11,3
n.a.
8,0
n.a.
42,9
n.a.
0,2
n.a.
14,6
n.a.
79,2
n.a.
47,8
n.a.
2,5
n.a.
12,1
n.a.
3,7
n.a.
13,6
n.a.
11,6
n.a.
0,1
n.a.
11,9
616
616
CSP
Tech.
Econ.
n.a.
n.a.
23
20
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
44
4
88
7
2
2
436
142
1646
1278
405
131
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1584
1584
Wind
Tech.
Econ.
n.a.
3,0
n.a.
6,0
n.a.
55,0
n.a.
27,0
n.a.
129,0
n.a.
5,8
n.a.
13,0
n.a.
55,0
n.a.
0,0
n.a.
40,0
n.a.
63,5
n.a.
0,0
n.a.
344,0
n.a.
65,0
n.a.
8,9
n.a.
0,7
n.a.
0,3
n.a.
262,0
n.a.
1,3
n.a.
49,0
n.a.
79,0
n.a.
0,2
n.a.
18,0
n.a.
93,0
n.a.
110,0
n.a.
0,1
n.a.
2,6
n.a.
7,9
n.a.
0,3
n.a.
0,1
n.a.
1,0
n.a.
76,0
1517
1517
PV
Tech.
Econ.
n.a.
2,9
n.a.
0,1
n.a.
1,3
n.a.
1,7
n.a.
23,4
n.a.
1,1
n.a.
2,1
n.a.
1,1
n.a.
0,8
n.a.
4,3
n.a.
3,7
n.a.
3,7
n.a.
7,8
n.a.
3,1
n.a.
2,0
n.a.
2,0
n.a.
1,0
n.a.
23,4
n.a.
2,0
n.a.
3,9
n.a.
17,6
n.a.
0,1
n.a.
3,9
n.a.
19,5
n.a.
15,6
n.a.
0,6
n.a.
0,8
n.a.
2,0
n.a.
1,0
n.a.
0,6
n.a.
0,3
n.a.
1,0
154
154
Wa/Ti
Tech.
Econ.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0,2
n.a.
2,2
n.a.
2,0
n.a.
12,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
0,2
n.a.
4,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
1,0
n.a.
2,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
60,0
n.a.
1,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
7,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
4,0
n.a.
3,0
n.a.
0,1
n.a.
7,0
n.a.
13,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
3,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
2,0
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
10,0
n.a.
10,0
144
144