Development of a Real-Time GIC Simulator

D. H. BOTELER 1 , R. PIRJOLA 2 , J. PARMELEE 1 , S. SOUKSALY 1

1 Geomagnetic Laboratory, Natural Resources Canada 2 Space Research, Finnish Meteorological Institute 5 th European Space Weather Week, Brussels, 17-21 November 2008

Summary This presentation describes the development of a Real-Time GIC Simulator to provide information about geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) in a power system to help system controllers prevent power outages during geomagnetic disturbances.

The Simulator uses real-time geomagnetic data as input and convolves this with an Earth impulse response to calculate the electric fields experienced by the power system.

These are then used as input to a power system model to calculate the GIC throughout the system. Real-time maps are produced showing the GIC in the transmission lines and the GIC flowing to ground at substations. A prototype system has been implemented for the power grid in Ontario Canada, in collaboration with the grid operator, Hydro One. Public web pages have also been produced to demonstrate the Simulator process using a generic network. A cost/benefit analysis shows that the cost of the Simulator is small compared to the benefit of avoiding problems during geomagnetic disturbances.

CONTENTS 1. User Requirements 2. Electric Field Calculations 3. GIC Modelling 4. Operation 5. User Satisfaction 6. Cost Benefit Analysis

USER REQUIREMENTS:

Effects of Geomagnetically Induced Currents

Quebec Power System SVC tripped Lines tripped Transformer damaged

USER REQUIREMENTS:

Effects of Geomagnetically Induced Currents - 1989 Effects in Ontario - August 2003 Blackout in Canada/US (not due to GIC) Response to Geomagnetically Induced Currents - Redesign (Not Practical) - Operating Procedures

Need Knowledge about GIC levels

GIC Simulator: Overview

GIC Simulator: Electric Field Calculation

GIC Simulator: GIC Modelling

GIC Simulator: Operation

Ottawa Magnetic Observatory System Information Hydro One Real-time Displays Electric Field Calculation GIC Model Calculation Real-time GIC Simulator Display Production

GIC Simulator: Operation

GIC Simulator: User Satisfaction

Displays designed in consultation with Hydro One engineers Verification Important – limited by lack of activity Include spatial variations of magnetic disturbances Use local earth conductivity models

Cost Benefit Analysis

Geomagnetic Impact Scenarios Benefits of GIC Simulator Cost of GIC Simulator Service Cost / Benefit Comparison

Cost Benefit Analysis: Geomagnetic Impact Scenarios

Unexpected Reactive Power Demand Equipment Damage Replacement Power Power Blackout - direct cost to power company - wider societal cost

Cost Benefit Analysis: Benefits of GIC Simulator

System Management Avoidance of Equipment Damage Avoidance of Replacement Power Costs Avoidance of Power Blackout

Cost Benefit Analysis: Costs of GIC Simulator Service

Initial Development Supply of Magnetic Data Service Operation

Cost Benefit Analysis: Cost/Benefit Comparison Costs

Initial Development Supply of Mag Data* Service operation* Further Development Total Cost over Cost over Cost 10 years 30 years $300K $20K $30K $200K $30K $20K $30K $20K $10K $20K $30K $7K

Cost Benefit Analysis: Cost/Benefit Comparison Benefits

Reactive Power Equipment Damage Replacement Power (6 weeks – 12 months) Power Blackout Cost of Once every Incident 10 years Once every 30 years $1 M $5 M $25M - $200M $600M $100K $500K $2.5M

- $20M $60M $33K $165K $0.8M

- $7M $20M

Conclusions

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A system has been developed to provide real-time simulation of geomagnetically induced currents in a power system

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This can be used by power system operators to monitor GIC levels that may impact system operation

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A Cost/Benefit Analysis shows that the costs of operating the system are small compared to the benefits of avoiding problems on the power system