Transcript PRIMARY HEADING: ARIAL NARROW BOLD 22PT

Sustainable Energy Options:
Maintaining access to abundant fossil fuels
Klaus S. Lackner
Columbia University
November 2007
Energy, Wealth, Economic Growth
Primary Energy Consumption
(kW/person)
100
Norway
10
Russia
UK
China
1
India
USA
France
Brazil
$0.38/kWh
(primary)
0.1
0.01
100
1000
10000
GDP ($/person/year)
100000
EIA Data 2002
IPCC Model Simulations of CO2 Emissions
Growth in Energy Consumption
18
Closing the Gap
16
Fractional Change
14
12
10
8
Plus Population Growth
6
1% energy intensity reduction
Constant per capita growth
4
1.5% energy intensity reduction
2.0% energy intensity reduction
2
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
Year
Constant Growth 1.6%
Plus Population Growth to 10 billion
Closing the Gap at 2%
Energy intensity drop 1%/yr
Energy Intensity drop 1.5%/yr
Energy Intensity drop 2% per year
Carbon as a Low-Cost Source of Energy
US1990$ per barrel of oil equivalent
Lifting Cost
Cumulative
Carbon
Consumption
as of1997
Cumulative Gt of Carbon Consumed
H.H. Rogner, 1997
Fossil fuels are fungible
Coal
Shale
Tar
Oil
Natural
Gas
Carbon
Refining
Synthesis
Gas
Diesel
Jet Fuel
Ethanol
Methanol
DME
Hydrogen
Heat
Electricity
The Challenge:
Holding the Stock of CO2 constant
Extension of
Historic Growth
Rates
Constant emissions
at 2010 rate
560 ppm
33% of 2010 rate
10% of 2010 rate
0% of 2010 rate
280 ppm
Comparison With Keeling’s Data
The Challenge:
Holding the Stock of CO2 constant
Extension of
Historic Growth
Rates
Constant emissions
at 2010 rate
560 ppm
33% of 2010 rate
10% of 2010 rate
0% of 2010 rate
280 ppm
5
4
3
2
180ppm
increase in
the air
The
Mismatch
in Carbon
Sources
and Sinks
1
50%
increase
in
biomass
30% of
the Ocean
30%
increase in acidified
Soil Carbon
1800
2000
Fossil Carbon
Consumption to date
A Triad of Large Scale Options
• Solar
– Cost reduction and mass-manufacture
• Nuclear
– Cost, waste, safety and security
• Fossil Energy
– Zero emission, carbon storage and
interconvertibility
Markets will drive efficiency, conservation and alternative energy
Small Energy Resources
• Hydro-electricity
– Cheap but limited
• Biomass
– Sun and land limited, severe competition with food
• Wind
– Stopping the air over Colorado every day?
• Geothermal
– Geographically limited
• Tides, Waves & Ocean Currents
– Less than human energy generation
Net Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from
concentrated
sources
Capture from power
plants, cement, steel,
refineries, etc.
CO2 from
distributed
emissions
Capture from air
Permanent &
safe
disposal
Geological Storage
Mineral carbonate disposal
Dividing The Fossil Carbon Pie
900 Gt C
total
Past
10yr
550 ppm
Removing the Carbon Constraint
5000 Gt C
total
Past
Net Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from
concentrated
sources
Capture from power
plants, cement, steel,
refineries, etc.
CO2 from
distributed
emissions
Capture from air
Permanent &
safe disposal
Geological Storage
Mineral carbonate disposal
Storage Life Time
Slow Leak (0.04%/yr)
2 Gt/yr for 2500 years
Storage
5000 Gt of C
200 years at 4 times current rates of emission
Current Emissions: 7Gt/year
Underground Injection
statoil
Gravitational Trapping
Subocean Floor Disposal
Energy States of Carbon
The ground state of
carbon is a mineral
carbonate
Carbon
400 kJ/mole
Carbon Dioxide
60...180 kJ/mole
Carbonate
Rockville Quarry
Mg3Si2O5(OH)4 + 3CO2(g)  3MgCO3 + 2SiO2 +2H2O(l)
+63kJ/mol CO2
Bedrock geology GIS datasets – All U.S.
130°W
120°W
110°W
100°W
(Surface area)
90°W
80°W
Legend
70°W
920 km2
ultramafic rock
45°N
45°N
40°N
40°N
35°N
35°N
30°N
8733 km2
30°N
67°W
Total = 9820 ±100 km2
25°N
$
0
166
km2
18°N
25°N
Puerto Rico
18°N
67°W
100°W
65°W
140,000
Meters
19°N
1,000,000
Meters
110°W
66°W
0
90°W
80°W
66°W
Belvidere Mountain, Vermont
Serpentine Tailings
Oman Peridotite
Net Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from
concentrated
sources
Capture from power
plants, cement, steel,
refineries, etc.
CO2 from
distributed
emissions
Capture from air
Permanent &
safe
disposal
Geological Storage
Mineral carbonate disposal
Many Different Options
• Flue gas scrubbing
– MEA, chilled ammonia
• Oxyfuel Combustion
– Naturally zero emission
• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle
– Difficult as zero emission
• AZEP Cycles
– Mixed Oxide Membranes
• Fuel Cell Cycles
– Solid Oxide Membranes
Zero Emission
Principle
CO2
H2O
SOx, NOx and
other
Pollutants
Air
Carbon
N2
Power Plant
Solid Waste
Steam Reforming
Boudouard Reaction
Carbon makes a better fuel cell
C + O2  CO2
no change in mole volume
entropy stays constant
G = H
2H2 + O2  2H2O
large reduction in mole volume
entropy decreases in reactants
made up by heat transfer to surroundings
G < H
Proposed Membrane
CO2 CO2
CO2 CO2
CO2 CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2 CO
Phase I: Solid Oxide
O2-
O2-
2POCO2
O2-
CO2
CO2
CO322
CO32-
CO32-
CO32-
Phase II: Molten Carbonate
Multi-Phase Equilibrium
CO2 + O2- = CO32-
CO2
CO2
Net Zero Carbon Economy
CO2 from
concentrated
sources
CO2
extraction
from air
Permanent &
safe
disposal
CO2 Capture from Air
1 m3of Air
40 moles of gas, 1.16 kg
wind speed 6 m/s
mv 2
 20 J
2
CO2
0.015 moles of CO2
produced by 10,000 J of
gasoline
Volumes are drawn to scale
How much wind?
(6m/sec)
Wind area that
carries 10 kW
0.2 m 2
for CO2
Wind area that
carries 22 tons
of CO2 per year
50 cents/ton of CO2
for contacting
80 m 2
for Wind Energy
Ca(OH)2 as an absorbent
Air Flow
CO2 diffusion
Ca(OH)2 solution
CaCO3 precipitate
CO2 mass transfer is limited by diffusion in air boundary layer
Sorbent Choices
Binding Energy (kJ/mole)
0
-5
-10
-15
350K
Air
300K
Power plant
-20
-25
-30
100
1000
10000
CO2 Partial Pressure (ppm)
100000
60m by 50m
3kg of CO2 per second
90,000 tons per year
4,000 people or
15,000 cars
Would feed EOR for 800
barrels a day.
250,000 units for
worldwide CO2 emissions
The first
of a kind
Materially Closed Energy Cycles
O2
CO2
CO2
O2
Energy
Source
H2
H2 CH2
H2O
H2O
Energy
Consumer
O
Oxygen
Free O2
CO2
Free C- H
Increasing Oxidation State
Oxidizer
CO
Coal
C
Carbon
H2 O
Combustion
products
Town Gas
Methanol
Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas
Biomass
Ethanol
Petroleum
Benzene
Gasoline
Natural Gas
Methane
Increasing Hydrogen Content
Hydrogen
Fuels
H
O
Oxygen
Free O2
CO2
Free C- H
Increasing Oxidation State
Oxidizer
CO
Coal
C
Carbon
H2 O
Combustion
products
Town Gas
Methanol
Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas
Biomass
Ethanol
Petroleum
Benzene
Gasoline
Natural Gas
Methane
Increasing Hydrogen Content
Hydrogen
Fuels
H
O
Oxygen
Free O2
CO2
Free C- H
Increasing Oxidation State
Oxidizer
CO
Coal
C
Carbon
H2 O
Combustion
products
Town Gas
Methanol
Fischer Tropsch Synthesis Gas
Biomass
Ethanol
Petroleum
Benzene
Gasoline
Natural Gas
Methane
Increasing Hydrogen Content
Hydrogen
Fuels
H
Public Institutions
and Government
guidance
Carbon Board
certification
Private Sector
Carbon
Extraction
Farming, Manufacturing, Service,
etc.
Certified Carbon Accounting
certificates
Carbon
Sequestration