Asian Role in Global Climate Policy

Professor Akio Morishima Chair, Japan Climate Policy Centre Special Research Advisor for IGES 18 October 2008 1

Prof. Akio Morishima

World Academy of Art and Science: General Assembly 2008 Aalankrita Resort and Conference Center, Hyderabad, India

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Asia and the Pacific Today

 Diverse and Rapidly Changing  Dynamics and Vulnerability  Asia and Climate Policy

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Asia and the Pacific

    Population: 4 billion people, 60 % of World Population Land mass: 24% of the world land mass Forest area: 14% of the world forest area GDP growth rate since the 80s: remained over 6% (while the annual world GDP growth rates fluctuated between 2-3%)

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Rapid Economic Growth (1)

12 10 8 6 4 2 0

3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500

19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05

0

Gross Domestic Product ($ trillions, yr. 2000) GDP per Capita ($US, yr. 2000) Source: East-West Center

Rapid Economic Growth (2)

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•The Annual GDP growth rate in the region least 20 years is over 6% •But economic growth rate is uneven among countries.

•Income inequality has increased not only among countries but also within a country.

•800 million people who live on less than one dollar a day still live in this region.

Source: East-West Center

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Economic Development Estimates

GDP outlook 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 other Asia (total) (+Australia/NZ) Brazil India China Japan OECD Europe United States 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 1990 2003 2004 2010 year 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Demographic Expansion (1)

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"Sustainable Asia 2005 and Beyond - In the pursuit of innovative policies" IGES(2005)

Demographic Expansion (2)

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•Urbanization •9 out of 23 mega cities with over 10 million inhabitants in the world exist in the region.

•Hundreds of large cities with millions inhabitants scatter all over the region.

•Most of the large cities do not have infrastructure to provide residents with minimum social and sanitary services.

•These large cities face urban environmental problems "Sustainable Asia 2005 and Beyond - In the pursuit of innovative policies" IGES(2005)

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Growing Energy Demand (1)

Primary Energy Consumption 600.0

500.0

400.0

300.0

200.0

other Asia (total) (+Australia/NZ) Brazil India China Japan OECD Europe United States 100.0

0.0

1990 2003 2004 2010 year 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Growing Energy Demand (2)

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The fourth Global Environment Outlook: environment for development (GEO-4) (2007)

Increasing CO

2

emissions (1)

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The fourth Global Environment Outlook: environment for development (GEO-4) (2007)

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Increasing CO2 emissions(2)

CO2 emissions 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 other Asia (total) (+Australia/NZ) Brazil India China Japan OECD Europe United States 0 1990 2003 2004 2010 year 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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Increasing CO2 emissions (3)

European Communities (2003)

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Increasing CO2 Emission (4)

26.2Gt-CO2; 2004 40.5Gt-CO2; 2030 8.2Gt

1.1

Gt 1.3Gt

3.9Gt

12.7Gt

3.3Gt

1.2Gt

4.3Gt

India Japan EU China 4.6Gt

10.2Gt

5.9Gt

USA 7.3Gt

Other s Source: World Energy Outlook 2007 (International Energy Agency)

15 Estimated Key Impacts in Asia by Global Warming Category Key Impacts Agriculture Water Health Costal/ Marine/ Ecology

 30% decline of crop production by 2050, resulting in a higher rate of starvation in south Asia  Disappearance of glacier in the Tibetan Plateau by 4 km due to the increase of air temperature by 3 degrees.

 Yearly water supply of India will decrease from 1820m 3 to 1140

m

3 by 2050, affecting 1 hundred million people of India.

 Increase in rates of outbreak of Cholera in south Asia and of diarrhea across Asia.

 Disappearance of 2500 km2 of Mangrove forests due to 1 meter Sea-level rise  Higher risk of floods in 5000 km2 watershed of Red River Delta and 15-20,000 km2 watershed of Mekong River  Disappearance of Coral reef by 30% in Asia in next 30 years Source: IPCC, 2007

GHG mitigation potentials in 2020

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“Second IGES White Paper Climate Change Policies in the Asia-Pacific: Re-uniting Climate Change and Sustainable Development " IGES(2008)

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END

Thank you for your attention.

Professor Akio Morishima Chair, Japan Climate Policy Centre Special Research Advisor for IGES

[email protected]