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Outlook on Renewable Energy
(and reducing GHG emissions).
Woudschoten Conferentie Chemistry2chemistry,
Zeist, 2nd November 2012
André Faaij
Copernicus Institute – Utrecht University
Head of Unit Energy & Resources
Task Leader IEA Bioenergy Task 40, CLA Bioenergy IPCC - SRREN
Copernicus Institute
Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Houston
we have a problem!
•
•
•
•
Peak oil
•
Peak soil
•
Peak water
•
Peak biodiversity
•
loss
•
• Peak population
• Peak GDP
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Climate
Agriculture
Energy
Biodiversity
Poverty &
development
And it is urgent!
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Global population projections
(stabilization at about 9 billion in GEA)
18
18
16
12
10
GEA Industrialized
GEA Developing
14
Population (billion)
World population (billion)
14
16
12
10
8
6
4
2
8
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
6
4
2
0
1940
1960 Institute
1980
Copernicus
2000
2020
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2040
2060
2080
2100
[GEA, 2012]
Economic development projections
(developing countries avg. 3.5%/yr;
developed countries 1.2%/yr)
800
500
600
500
GDP (trillion US$ 2005)
World GDP (trillion US$ 2005)
700
400
GEA Industrialized
GEA Developing
300
200
100
400
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
300
200
100
0
1940
1960
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1980
2000
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2020
2040
2060
2080
[GEA, 2012]
2100
800
Transport…
US
Vehicle ownership/1000 persons
CA
600
Aus
NZ
Jp
italy
sweden
belgium
仏
400
spain
uk
蘭
swiss
denmark
Germany
200
mexico
india
0
Taiwan
Korea
0 china
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10000
20000
GDP per capita(US$)
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30000
Can result in 2 billion
passenger cars in 2050
Tripling compared to 2000
The current global energy system
is dominated by fossil fuels.
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Global CO2 emissions from fossil
fuels (IEA base scenario; 2030)
CO2 emissions (Mt/yr)
20000
2030
2002
16000
12000
8000
4000
0
power
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industry
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transport
residential +
services
other
sectors
[Source: IEA]
More carbon in underground than the
atmosphere (and oceans) can swallow.
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GHG emissions vs. global
temperature…; little disagreement
about the impact of a 6 oC change..
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[IPCC-SRREN, 2012]
Grenzen aan de groei…?
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[Meadows]
Nervous
markets…
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What to do?
Despair
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or ….
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Do something
Use your climate
toolkit
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The BLUE Map Scenario – Towards a lowcarbon energy sector
 Baseline Scenario – business-as-usual; no adoption of new energy
and climate policies
 BLUE Map Scenario - energy-related CO2-emissions halved by 2050
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throughSustainable
CO2-price
strong
support policies
Developmentand
and Innovation
Management

Serves as basis for all IEA Technology Roadmaps
Historical
Development of
Global Primary
Energy Supply
from RE
(1971 – 2007).
Copernicus Institute
Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Copernicus Institute
Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
Global RE supply by source in Annex I
(ANI) and Non-Annex I (NAI) countries in
164 long-term scenarios (2030 and 2050).
Thick black line = median,
Coloured box = 25th-75th percentile,
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Whiskers = total range across all reviewed scenarios.
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[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Global primary energy supply of biomass in
164 long-term scenarios in 2020, 2030 and
2050, grouped by different categories of
atmospheric CO2 concentration level in 2100
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Sustainable Development and Innovation Management
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Costs available RE technologies
vs. fossil energy costs.
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[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
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RE costs have declined in the
past and further declines
can be expected in the future.
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[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
‘Learning investments’ – the cost of learning
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Source: IEA, 2000
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Generic capital cost trend for early commercial units
of a new power plant technology
Available for commercial order
Preconstruction and licencing period
Capital Cost / Unit of Capacity
(constant currency)
Finalized cost estimate
Design / construction period
First commercial service
Second plant in service
3rd plant
4th plant
5th plant
Development period
cost estimates
Mature plant costs
Simplified cost estimate
with incomplete data
Estimate
Actual
Time
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Source: EPRI
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Technical Advancements: growth in
size of commercial wind turbines.
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CSP seen as driver for
economic development…
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Experience curve for primary forest fuels
Source: Junginger Faaij et al., 2005
in Sweden and Finland (1975 and 2003).
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Experience curve for the average and marginal
production cost of electricity from Swedish
Electricity production costs (Euro(2002)/kWh)
Source: Junginger, Faaij et al., 2005
biofuelled CHP plants from 1990-2002
0.12
0.11
1990
0.1
0.09
PR = 91% R2 = 0.85
0.08
0.07
0.06
1991
1994
1995
1992 1993
1997
0.05
2002
PR = 92% R2 = 0.88
0.04
0.03 Institute
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Average electricity production costs
Marginal electricity production costs
1
10
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and Innovation
Management100
1999
1000
Cumulative electricity production (MWh)
10000
Production costs sugarcane [US$/tonne] and ethanol [US$/m 3]
Estimated future costs of
sugarcane and ethanol production
assuming 8% annual growth
10
20
Cumulative ethanol production [106 m3]
40
80
160
320
640
1280
800
PR = 0.81 + 0.02
Explaining the experience
curve:
Cost reductions of
Brazilian ethanol from
sugarcane
J.D. van den Wall Bake, M.
Junginger, A. Faaij, T.Poot,
A. da Silva Walter
Biomass & Bioenergy, 2008
400
200
2020
40
20
PR = 0.68 + 0.03
10
Sugarcane
Ethanol prod. cost (excl. feedstock)
Expected range of cane prod. costs in 2020
Expected range of ethanol prod. costs in 2020
1000
2000Institute
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4000
8000
16000
6
Cumulative sugarcane production [10 TC]
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2020
32000
And such opportunities can
be found in most sectors…
[Martin Weiss et al., 2010]
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Key factors
biomass potentials
Issue/effect
Importance
Supply potential of biomass
Improvement agricultural management
Choice of crops
Food demands and human diet
Use of degraded land
Competition for water
Use of agricultural/forestry by-products
Protected area expansion
Water use efficiency
Climate change
Alternative protein chains
Demand for biomaterials
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**
*
demand a
rece
Demand potential of biomass
Bio-energy demand versus supply
Cost of biomass supply
Learning in energy conversion
Market
mechanism food-feed-fuel
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Institute
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Impact
po
supply a
rece
**
**
**
**
Dornburg et al., Energy &
Environmental Science 2010
Global Primary Energy Supply, EJ/y
2050 Bioenergy Potentials &
Deployment Levels
2050
Global
Energy
AR4,
2007
2008 Global
Energy Total
2000 Total Biomass
Harvest for
Food/Fodder/Fiber
as Energy Content
2008 Global
Biomass Energy
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Technical
Potential
2050 Global
Biomass
AR4,
2007
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Past Literature
Range of
Technical
Potentials
0-1500 EJ
Technical Potential
Based on 2008
Model and Literature
Assessment
Land
Use
3
and 5
million
km2
Chapter 2
Possible
Deployment
Levels
300
2011 IPCC
Review*
Chapter 10
Modelled
Deployment
Levels for CO2
Concentration
Targets
440600
ppm
<440
ppm
300 Maximum
265
Percentile
190
100
118
80
20
2050 Projections
75th
median
150
25th
25 Minimum
[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Projected production costs estimated
for selected developing technologies
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[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
Final energy (EJ)
IEA Biofuel Roadmap: Vision
 Global biofuel supply grows from 2.5 EJ today to 32 EJ in 2050
 Biofuels share in total transport fuel increases from 2% today, to 27% in 2050

Diesel/kerosene-type biofuels key to decarbonise heavy transport modes
 Large-scale
deployment of advanced biofuels vital to meet the roadmap targets
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Biofuel Production Costs 2010-50
Production costs shown as untaxed retail price
•
Most conventional biofuels still have some potential for cost improvements
•
Advanced biofuels reach cost parity around 2030 in an optimistic case
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Driving forces, dimensions, scales…
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[IPCC-SRREN, 2011]
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Source: Statoil
Conceptual CO2 transport
configurations
Trunk line to oil fields +
aquifers in offshore
UK/Norway region
Use existing gas production
lines >2020
Trunk line to large
UK offshore gas
fields
National CO2
network
Regional CO2 network
& dedicated lines
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Damen et al., 2008
CO2 avoidance costs for
electricity production (ref: identical
technology without CCS).
50
State-of-the-art
Advanced
45
Coal
Gas
CO2 mitigation costs (€/t CO2)
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
PC
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IGCC
NGCC
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PC adv
IGCC
adv
IG-water
IGSOFCGT
NGCC
adv
MR-CC
CLC
AZEP
SOFCGT
Damen et al., 2007
An ultimate energ transition machine:
flex-fuel IG/synfuel/power +CCS
H2
production
Prepared
Feedstock
Gasif ier
Gas
Cleanup
AGR
H2S
S-compounds
O2
ASU
Sour
WGS
O2
Sweet
WGS
Claus/
SCOT
N2
Liquid S
CO 2
CO2
compression
H2
Power
production

FT-liquids FT-fuels
production
MeOH
MeOH
production
Urea
production
Urea
CO2
About 50%
Major investments in China.
- No oil for transport!
of carbon!
- 50 % biomass + CCS = net 0 CO2 emission.
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[Meerman et al., RSER 2011 & 2012]
What are we waiting for?
Yueyang
Sinopec-Shell
Coal gasification
project; (China)
Shell gasifier arriving
at site September 2006.
15 licences in
China at present…
Courtesy of Shell
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GHG emissions per km driven
No CCS
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CCS
[Van Vliet et al., 2009]
Energy system transformation…
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[Vuuren et al., Current opinions in Env. Sust., 2012]
Final remarks
• Business as Usual: likely given the current
governance capabilities; it’s correctional force and
collateral damage may be impressive.
• Global Governance; preferred and to be pursued;
but will it deliver on time?
• Smart economics: economic superiority for
sectors, countries, households…; connects to
current system capabilities and psychology.
– Develop (niche) markets and market volume.
– Divert fossil fuel subsidies (budget neutral).
– Rock solid innovation strategies backed by macroeconomic interests: THINK ASIA!!!.
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Niet lullen maar poetsen mensen
en dank voor uw aandacht
[email protected]
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sciencedirect/scopus
srren.ipcc-wg3.de/report