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The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems Patrick van der Duin, Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands [email protected] Tobias Heger, Technische Universitaet Berlin, Germany [email protected] Maximilian Schlesinger, EICT GmbH, Germany [email protected] Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems Linkage of futures research with innovation • Futures research and innovation are two sides of the same coin. • Quite a lot of research on the linkages between futures research and innovation: • Use of methods (Van der Duin, 2006) • Organization of ‘technology intelligence processes’ (Lichtenthaler, 2007) • Foresight influencing innovative capabilities (Rohrbeck & Gemunden, 2010) • However: • rise of ‘innovation systems’ and ‘open innovation’ approaches • what does that mean for the use of futures research in innovation systems or ‘open innovation’? Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems Innovation systems / ‘open innovation’ Looking for suitable models • ‘Triple helix model’: • rather simplistic, no explicit linkage with the future • ‘Regime approach of innovation systems’ • (also) no explicit linkage with the future, no actor-perspective • ‘Functions of innovation systems’-approach: • focus on future development, but no actor perspective • the ‘Cyclic Innovation Model’: • explicit linkage with future, and actor perspective Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems The ‘Cyclic Innovation Model’ (CIM): level 1 Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems The ‘Cyclic Innovation Model’ (CIM): level 2 (process model) hard knowledge infrastructure manufacturing and processing industry technological research integrated engineering cycle technical-oriented sciences cycle scientific exploration differentiated service cycle social-oriented sciences cycle soft knowledge infrastructure product creation entrepreneurship market transitions public and private service sector Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems Three cases: 1. EICT: • Public-private partnerships of industrial companies, institutes of applied and scientific institutions • Linking R&D-activities on ICT 2. EIT ICT Labs: • Consortium of partners from academia, industry and research institutes • Focused on solving the European Innovation Paradox’ 3. ‘Rijkswaterstaat’: • Joint Innovation programme ‘Rijkswaterstaat’ and ‘Deltares’ • Finding truly new solutions to cope with rising sea levels Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems Analysis of ‘Rijkswaterstaat’ & ‘Deltares’ : No consensus Not so ‘open’ (trends & partners), managing political context Only if it is really new Not formalized/ explicit Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems Cross-case analysis (1): Stage 1: EICT Stage 3: Rijkswaterstaat Stage 2: EIT ICT Labs Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems Cross case analysis (2): 1. Stage 1: Strategic (EICT) 2. Stage 2: Tactical (EIT ICT Labs) 3. Stage 3: Operational (‘Rijkswaterstaat’ ) • ‘Transition path’ to a complete CIM (ensuring feedback mechanisms); different levels of ‘development’ • Leadership is different in the thee stages: 1. Stage 1: bringing together and convincing 2. Stage 2: converting good intentions into a working plan 3. Stage 3: operational responsibility, linking each part of the framework Exploring the use of futures research in innovation systems Further research: 1. Much more emphasis on inter-organizational processes (by ‘indepth case 2. Incorporating level 2 of CIM: four knowledge cycles as specified framework for future-innovation linkage 3. Testing to what extent conclusions for use of futures research within a single organisation also hold for futures research within an innovation system (‘open innovation’)