Transcript Common Steps in Foresight

Foresight:
processes, practices and methodologies
Rafael Popper – [email protected]
PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Guides & Handbooks
•
The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008)
•
Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure Foresight (2007)
•
Global Foresight Outlook (2007)
•
The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook
•
Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated into EU languages)
•
UNIDO Technology Foresight Training Manual
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Process A
The EUFORIA case
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/euforia
Work plan
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Process B
The SCOPE case
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Methodology
Scanning &
Desk studies
(national reports
sub-contracted)
Validation of desk studies
(May-June 2005)
Drivers & trends
(May-June 2005)
Scenarios
(June-July 2005)
Validation & Prioritisation
(August-September 2005)
Recommendations
(December 2005 – January 2006)
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Process C
The iKnow case
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Example of Work Plan / Logic Chart
month
1
WP2: Conceptual development of Wi-We frameworks for ERA
State of the art, literature review on Weak Signals and Wild Cards (Wi-We)
WP1
&
M
A
N
A
G
E
M
E
N
T
WP4: Eliciting Wi-We appraisals
(EU & International views)
1 Cross-national Delphi survey
~ 50 telephone interviews
WP 3 Characterisation of ERA Wi-We
Wi-We Bank
Wi-We Bulletins
Thematic / Sectors
WP5: Wi-We Impact Surveys
(eliciting national & regional views)
CZ
FI
GE
FP7
Themes
& Sectors
Research Infrastructures
UK
Research Institutions
WP6: National Multi-Method
Workshops
CZ
FI
GE
CZ
FI
GE
Research Progr. & Prior.
ERA
Dimensions
UK
WP8: Developing and piloting tools and applications
(iKnow Multi-Module Web-Environment)
• Wi-We Bank: using Web 2.0 approaches and tools
• Wi-We Scan: Wi-We scanning & meta-search system
(including Wi-We clustering and visualisation)
WP9: iKnow Workshop (integrating Knowledge)
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Knowledge Sharing
Internationalisation
UK
WP7: writing case studies
T
Researchers
WP 10: Policy Consequences
C
O
O
R
D
I
N
A
T
I
O
N
I
M
E
month
30
R. Popper (2008)
Workplan
The iKnow case
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
A Foresight Process…
Example of Work Plan / Timeline
Workpackage
1. Management / Co-ordination
(including steering committee/advisory committee coordination
and meetings)
2. Conceptual development of WI-WE frameworks for ERA
(State of the art: Theoretical and conceptual development of
Wild cards and Weak signals frameworks for ERA)
2008
2009
2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
X
X
X
X
X
X
3. Characterisation of ERA Weak Signals and Wild Cards
4. Eliciting Wild Cards & Weak Signals (WI-WE) appraisals
(Delphi Survey and Interviews)
5. Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys
(at national and regional levels in four countries)
6. National Multi-Method Workshops
7. Writing Case Studies
8. Developing and piloting tools and applications for WI-WE
(using Web 2.0 approaches and tools)
9. iKnow Workshop (Integrating Knowledge)
10.Policy Consequences
Other Deliverables (see Workpackages)
Interim reports
i1
i2
i3
i4
I5
F
X= regular internal meetings project core group (key institute representative plus further staff as needed, Commission invited)
i1=inception report, i2, i3, i4, i5 =draft final report, F=final report
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
A Foresight Process…
Example of Work Plan / Logic Chart
month
1
WP2: Conceptual development of Wi-We frameworks for ERA
State of the art, literature review on Weak Signals and Wild Cards (Wi-We)
WP1
&
M
A
N
A
G
E
M
E
N
T
WP4: Eliciting Wi-We appraisals
(EU & International views)
1 Cross-national Delphi survey
~ 50 telephone interviews
WP 3 Characterisation of ERA Wi-We
Wi-We Bank
Wi-We Bulletins
Thematic / Sectors
WP5: Wi-We Impact Surveys
(eliciting national & regional views)
CZ
FI
GE
FP7
Themes
& Sectors
Research Infrastructures
UK
Knowledge Generation
Research Institutions
WP6: National Multi-Method
Workshops
CZ
FI
GE
CZ
FI
GE
Research Progr. & Prior.
ERA
Dimensions
UK
WP8: Developing and piloting tools and applications
(iKnow Multi-Module Web-Environment)
• Wi-We Bank: using Web 2.0 approaches and tools
• Wi-We Scan: Wi-We scanning & meta-search system
(including Wi-We clustering and visualisation)
WP9: iKnow Workshop (integrating Knowledge)
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Knowledge Sharing
Internationalisation
UK
WP7: writing case studies
T
Researchers
WP 10: Policy Consequences
C
O
O
R
D
I
N
A
T
I
O
N
I
M
E
month
30
R. Popper (2008)
A Foresight Process…
Example of Work Packages (tasks & deliverables)
Work package number
5
Work package title
Wild cards and Weak signals Impact Surveys (at national and regional levels in four countries)
Activity Type
RTD
Participant number
1
Person-months per participant:
Start date or starting event:
2
2.50
3
1.50
10
4
1.50
5
1.50
6
1.50
7
1.75
8
0.20
0.20
Objectives

To gather data systematically on expected national and regional impacts of Wild cards and associated Weak signals by means of a set of surveys and targeted
interviews.

To take account of regional and national differences and enable country comparisons (UK, FI, GE, CZ).

To analyse the resulting Wi-We an identify linkages with the six ERA dimensions.
Objectives
Description of work
Five partners will conduct surveys at national and regional levels.
Task5.1: Survey preparation: In terms of hypotheses and the questionnaire, the set of surveys will be prepared in the help of previous workpackage results (in
particular Task 4.1 and 4.2 above). This will lead to uniform questions related to the ERA dimensions but with an emphasis on national and sub-national specific
questions. This preparatory Task will finalise the technical means for undertaking the survey itself.
Task 5.2: Sampling and identification of respondents: A selection of national and regional stakeholders. For all countries a first investigation on key actors directly or
indirectly concerned with the ERA dimensions. The sample of potential respondents will be designed to include from 10 representatives from the following eight
groups of stakeholders, normally targeted by EC consultation processes: (i) higher education institutions (HEI); (ii) public sector research performers other than
HEI; (iii) research funding organisations; (iv) governmental bodies; (v) non-governmental, not for profit, not representing commercial interest organisations; (vi)
commercial organisations (including consultancy) more than 250 employees; (vii) commercial organisations (including consultancy) fewer than 250 employees;
(viii) associations representing commercial interests / chambers of commerce. In addition to the targeted respondents, the online Delphi will try to reach wider
audiences directly or indirectly involved in Wi-We thinking (e.g. artists, musicians, computer game designers, financiers, engineers, media, children, etc.).This task
will expand the database created in Task 4.3 (above). The survey results will also contribute to the preparation of national case studies (see WP7 below).
Task 5.3: Conducting the survey through electronic means (online, e-mail based): As far as possible the survey will be conducted online, with each institute
mobilising its existing IT resources. A traditional written survey will be conducted instead only if, for certain stakeholders in individual countries electronic means
are not sufficient.
Task 5.4: Country and cross-country analysis: Each partner will analyse the data for its country, and prepare country specific Wi-WE impact reports.
Task 5.5: Integrating Wi-We impact survey results into iKnow tools
Tasks
Deliverables
D5.1: Country specific WI-WE impact report for UK - Date of delivery: month 15
D5.2: Country specific WI-WE impact report for FI - Date of delivery: month 15
D5.3: Country specific WI-WE impact report for GE - Date of delivery: month 15
D5.4: Country specific WI-WE impact report for CZ - Date of delivery: month 15
D5.5: Country specific WI-WE impact report for IL - Date of delivery: month 15
D5.6: Cross-country analysis and linkages to international dimension of ERA - Date of delivery: month 16
D5.7: Summary of major results on the surveys and the cross country analysis, Date of delivery: month 17
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Deliverables
R. Popper (2008)
Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond
9 methods
8 methods
Scenario writing
7 methods
Scenario writing
Scenario writing
Backcasting
Scenario workshops
SWOT
Roadmapping
Brainstorming
Roadmapping
Workshops
SWOT
Delphi
Workshops
Workshops
Expert panels
Workshops
Expert panel
Interviews
Extrapolation
Extrapolation
Extrapolation
Benchmarking
Benchmarking
Scanning
Literature review
8 methods
6 methods
Wild cards
Scenario writing
Scenario workshops
Brainstorming
Backcasting
Delphi
Survey
vs.
SWOT
Delphi
Citizen Panels
Expert Panels
?
Benchmarking
Scanning
Literature review
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
The Foresight Process
Quite often foresight is understood as a process with
various complementary phases.
1.Pre-Foresight
2.Recruitment
3.Generation
4.Action
5.Renewal
Miles (2002), Popper (2008)
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
The Foresight Process
Pre-Foresight
Rationales
Sponsor(s)
Objectives
Orientation
Resources
- Core team *
- Time
- Money
- Infrastructure
- Cultural
- Political
Approaches
Time horizon
Methodology
Workplan
- Activities
- Tasks
- Deliverables
Scope
- Context
- Coverage
Recruitment Generation
Project team *
- skills
Partners
Sub-contractors
Steering Group
Experts
- Thematic
- Sectoral
- Regional
- National
- International
Champions
- Thematic
-…
Panels
Methodologists
Facilitators
Rapporteurs
Existing knowledge
is amalgamated,
analysed and
synthesised
Tacit knowledge is
codified
New knowledge is
generated (such as
the elucidation of
emerging issues,
creation of new
visions and images
of the future, etc.)
KNOWLEDGE
(R. Popper, 2008)
Action
Advising
- Strategies
- Policy Options
- Recommendations
-…
Transforming
- Networking
- Policy-making
- Decision-making
-…
Renewal
Learning
- Process
- Products
Evaluation
- Impacts
- Efficiency
- Appropriateness
Dissemination
- Shared Visions
- Foresight Culture
-…
Step 5: evaluating
Step 4: shaping the future through
strategic planning
Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the
exploration, analysis and anticipation of possible futures
Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders
Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal
Objectives and Rationales
•
To map existing strengths/weaknesses and explore complementarities/overlaps of
the networking centres/organisations
•
To identify future S&T and socio-economic opportunities and threats that should be
addressed
•
To illustrate the unsustainability of the old management and business models and to
demonstrate the ‘need’ for international collaboration or cluster formation
•
To function as a forum for involvement and participation of stakeholders in
different countries
•
To build a strong vision that the participants of the network/cluster can sign up to
•
To strengthen the strategic capacity of managers of the national centres, as well as
national policy makers
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal
Selection criteria (if applicable!)
Futures
Require looking ahead at least 10 years, in areas where the outcomes are uncertain. This typically
occurs where the future direction of change is rapid, current trends are uncertain or different trends
may converge;
S&T
Have science and technology as the main drivers of change or are capable of impacting substantially
on future scenarios;
Value-added: Impact
Have outcomes that can be influenced, to an extent that is significant for one or more of the economy,
society and the environment;
Value added: Existing work
Are not covered by work carried on elsewhere. However, they must build from areas of active research;
Networks
Require an inter-disciplinary approach to the science, and bring together groups from academia,
business and government. They must not be capable of resolution by a single group; and
Buy-in
Command the support of the groups most likely to be able to influence the future and be owned by a
lead government department.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal
Expected outcomes
An efficiently functioning network/cluster of upgraded facilities, better placed to:
 respond to emerging scientific developments and growing multi-disciplinarity
 meet the demands for new and diverse services
 ensure better access to unique equipment and data bases
 attract young researchers, and
 improve harvesting and exploitation of existing knowledge.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal
Sponsors
The exercise is promoted by national agencies (e.g. SENA, Colciencias, etc.).
In addition, the international sponsors could be considered (e.g. CAB, CAF, etc.).
Project team
The exercise is organised and managed by a mix of strategic planners from SENA and
an national/international consultancy specialising in 3D and Foresight.
Duration
Given the complicated nature of the issues and institutional landscape, the exercise has
18-month duration.
Time horizon
7, 10, 15 years (dependent on the issue under consideration, e.g. platforms, markets).
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal
Participation
Its distributed nature – which is required for local knowledge and embeddedness
– has the need for:
• regular face-to-face meetings and
• special attention to be paid to communication processes.
Steering group
In addition, a national/regional steering group is built of:
• facility/company directors and
• national policy makers
…together with several small national working parties of:
• leading scientists and trainers
• research managers.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal
Panels / Working groups
National working groups are set up around each of the existing centres – in order to:
• collect and process national data
• make sense of foresight results in a localised context.
There is a great deal of overlap in membership between all of these groups to
ensure communication, while the working language of the transnational groups
is English.
Experts / Members
Members are drawn mostly from:
• research centres,
• national ministries, and other interested stakeholders, including:
• business representatives and branch associations.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal
Combining methods to:
• Improve existing knowledge
 Literature review
 Benchmarking
• Gather tacit knowledge
 Surveys
 Brainstorming sessions
 Delphi
• Create new knowledge
 Scenario writing
 Scenario workshops
 Backcasting
Networking Facilities
Research Process (RP) Diamond
Stage 1: (deskwork) map current activities
of national centres, followed by
international benchmarking, and science
frontier studies (literature review).
Stage 2: use of a survey to identify key
technologies, in order to capture the likely
S&T needs of user communities (the
‘application’ sector). Followed by groups
brainstorming topic statements for an
international Delphi.
Scenario writing
Scenario workshops
Brainstorming
Backcasting
Delphi
Survey
Stage 3: international online Delphi.
Stage 4: (deskwork) scenario writing.
Stage 5: scenario workshop, where a
success scenario of international
collaboration is derived. Followed by
backcasting the success scenario through a
mix of deskwork and workshops to define
a strategic action plan for international
collaboration.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Benchmarking
Literature review
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Combining methods to:
Generation
Stage 1
• Improve existing knowledge
Action
2
3
4
Renewal
5
The exercise begins with an extensive programme of
deskwork involving:
 Literature review
 Benchmarking
 Surveys
• the preparation of ‘future outlooks’ on several of the
sub-fields that constitute the area,
 Brainstorming sessions
• the mapping of existing strengths and weaknesses,
 Delphi
• the exploration of complementarities and overlaps
across the current national centres, and
• Gather tacit knowledge
• Create new knowledge
 Scenario writing
• an international benchmarking exercise
 Scenario workshops
 Backcasting
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Combining methods to:
• Improve existing knowledge
 Literature review
 Benchmarking
• Gather tacit knowledge
 Surveys
 Brainstorming sessions
 Delphi
• Create new knowledge
 Scenario writing
 Scenario workshops
 Backcasting
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Generation
Stage 1
Action
2
3
4
Renewal
5
Starting a little later but also working in parallel, a
survey is carried out with scientists, industrialists, and
public policy makers in order to:
• capture the likely S&T needs of user communities
(the ‘application’ sector)
• identify key technologies
Following this, national and international working
groups brainstorm around the emerging results of the
exercise with the purpose of:
• generating topic statements for an (inter)national
online Delphi
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Combining methods to:
• Improve existing knowledge
 Literature review
 Benchmarking
Generation
Stage 1
Action
2
3
4
Renewal
5
Delphi is a means of consulting more widely around
issues of uncertainty and likely importance.
1
• Gather tacit knowledge
2
3
4
5
6
 Surveys
 Brainstorming sessions
 Delphi
Statement 1
Statement 2
• Create new knowledge
 Scenario writing
Statement 3
 Scenario workshops
 Backcasting
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Statement n
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Combining methods to:
• Improve existing knowledge
 Literature review
 Benchmarking
Generation
Stage 1
Action
2
3
4
Renewal
5
Delphi is also used as a prioritisation tool, for example,
identifying IST application areas contributing to EU goals
IST Application Areas contributing to the 6 Lisbon Objectives in the EU25
• Gather tacit knowledge
 Surveys
 Brainstorming sessions
 Delphi
• Create new knowledge
Job Creation
Wealth Creation
Social Cohesion
Social Inclusion
0%
Education and learning
76%
65%
48%
47%
45%
61%
59%
60%
Health
 Scenario writing
Transport
54%
Ageing
 Scenario workshops
Leisure and recreation
 Backcasting
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
TOP 5 AREAS
• Education and
learning
• Social welfare/ public
services
• Government
• Work organisation
Security
FISTERA Delphi 2004-5
57%
56%
58%
56%
62%
600%
60%
55%
62%
Management
Social / family relationships
70%
62%
Government
Cultural diversity
Environmental Quality
300%
Social welfare / public services
Work organisation
Competitiveness
% of respondents
• Cultural
diversity
EU25 Base: 413 Resp.
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Combining methods to:
• Improve existing knowledge
 Literature review
 Benchmarking
• Gather tacit knowledge
 Surveys
 Brainstorming sessions
 Delphi
• Create new knowledge
 Scenario writing
 Scenario workshops
 Backcasting
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Generation
Stage 1
Action
2
3
4
Renewal
5
Drawing upon the results of earlier steps, the project team
draft several scenarios that portray the region’s scientific
and industrial profiles in different worlds, depending
upon:
• the level of collaboration between stakeholders, and
• the governance and renewal of the national centres.
These are used to:
• illustrate to a wide audience the unsustainability of
‘business as usual’, and
• demonstrate the ‘need’ for (inter)national
collaboration
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Combining methods to:
• Improve existing knowledge
 Literature review
 Benchmarking
• Gather tacit knowledge
 Surveys
 Brainstorming sessions
 Delphi
• Create new knowledge
 Scenario writing
Generation
Stage 1
Action
2
3
4
Renewal
5
The desk-scenarios are used in a scenario workshop to:
• generate a strong future vision (in the form of a
‘success scenario’) that the national ministries,
national centres, and national communities can
sign up to, and
• lead to the proposal of concrete recommendations
for moving forward through a backcasting
exercise
 Scenario workshops
 Backcasting
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal
However, the elaboration of the success scenario on the future network/cluster
requires the development of actions under several important topics, such as:
a) design of common research agendas for applied and advanced research;
b) opportunities for acquiring and sharing equipment, knowledge and skills;
c) new access schemes to national centres’ resources;
d) new collaboration modes and diversification of services;
e) increase in multidisciplinarity of research fields;
f) gaining pan-European significance;
g) optimisation of knowledge exploitation and innovation processes;
h) communication across the network of facilities; and
i) design of the infrastructure of the networked facility or cluster (for example, centralized
with sub-nodes, virtual, etc.), determined by its function.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal
Once (a) the results have been generated and (b) recommendations articulated,
the national and international structures put in place are transformed into
implementation bodies. In this phase, an important challenge is:
• to attract the necessary funding – from national governments and the EC –
to carry through the recommendations. But with clear plans based upon
extensive research and consultation, it is much easier to convince funding
bodies of the merits of the network.
Product benefits
Foresight has created a codified output that is useful for follow-up action
Process benefits
Foresight has also provided a forum for the involvement and participation of
stakeholders in different countries. The strategic dialogue space afforded by foresight
has aided communication, understanding and collaboration across geographical and
organisational boundaries that would otherwise have been difficult to bridge.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
How could foresight network/cluster facilities?
Pre-Foresight
Recruitment
Generation
Action
Renewal
Since the network/cluster could become a large facility even with pan-European
significance, regular strategic thinking exercises should be conducted for:
• the identification of major breakthroughs in related fields that might require
adjustments of the network/cluster’s vision.
This could be done by:
• launching successive rounds of foresight
• establishing a permanent horizon scanning unit
• organising regular monitoring, evaluation and knowledge dissemination forums
• Etc.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
A Foresight Process…
Selecting methods
Most Foresight methods are NOT different from those used in other disciplines. Foresighters use to
borrow and adapt methods from management, planning and social sciences.
The uniqueness of “foresight methods” is the combination of:
• futures thinking;
• networking; and
• policy-making.
There are plenty of methods that can be used in Foresight Processes…
From methods
you think you
know...
…to methods you think
you don’t know…
…to methods you don’t know
you don’t know…
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
There are, of course, many other methods that can be used…
33 methods classified by Type of Technique
Qualitative
Methods providing meaning to events
and perceptions. Such interpretations tend
to be based on subjectivity or creativity
often difficult to corroborate (e.g.
brainstorming, interviews)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
18.
19.
Backcasting
Brainstorming
Citizens panels
Conferences/workshops
Essays /Scenario writing
Expert panels
Genius forecasting
Interviews
Literature review
Morphological analysis
Relevance trees /logic charts
Role play / Acting
Scanning
Scenario /Scenario workshops
Science fictioning (SF)
Simulation gaming
Surveys
SWOT analysis
Weak signals /Wildcards
Quantitative
Semi-quantitative
Methods measuring variables and apply
statistical analyses, using or generating
(hopefully) reliable and valid data (e.g.
economic indicators)
Methods which apply mathematical
principles to quantify subjectivity, rational
judgements and viewpoints of experts and
commentators (i.e. weighting opinions)
20.
21.
22.
23.
24.
25.
26.
27.
28.
29.
30.
31.
32.
33.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Benchmarking
Bibliometrics
Indicators / time series analysis
Modelling
Patent analysis
Trend extrapolation / impact analysis
Cross-impact / structural analysis
Delphi
Key / Critical technologies
Multi-criteria analysis
Polling / Voting
Quantitative scenarios / SMIC
Roadmapping
Stakeholder analysis
Source: R. Popper (2008)
R. Popper (2008)
The Foresight Diamond
(methods by type of knowledge source)
Strongly influenced by imagination
FLACSO 2008
Focus on Scenarios
Strongly influenced
by experiences and
knowledge sharing
Strongly influenced by facts & data
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Strongly influenced by
discussions and
knowledge exchange
R. Popper (2008)
R. Popper (2008)
Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond
9 methods
8 methods
Scenario writing
7 methods
Scenario writing
Scenario writing
Backcasting
Scenario workshops
SWOT
Roadmapping
Brainstorming
Roadmapping
Workshops
SWOT
Delphi
Workshops
Workshops
Expert panels
Workshops
Expert panel
Interviews
Extrapolation
Extrapolation
Extrapolation
Benchmarking
Benchmarking
Scanning
Literature review
8 methods
6 methods
Wild cards
Scenario writing
Scenario workshops
Brainstorming
Backcasting
Delphi
Survey
vs.
SWOT
Delphi
Citizen Panels
Expert Panels
?
Benchmarking
Scanning
Literature review
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Methodology X (Forward)
Methodology X
(Forward)
Wild cards
Scanning
Delphi
Evidence
+
Broad Expertise
+
Wild Creativity
+
Interaction
+
Local Expertise
+
Strategic Creativity
SWOT
Wild Cards
Delphi
Citizen Panel
Expert Panel
Citizen panel
Expert panel
SWOT
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Large-scale
Workshop-type
activity
aimed
study
atatidentifying
the
Internal
Conference-type
activity exploratory
(possibly
activity
desk-work)
aimedassessing
aimed
identifying
at possible
major
likeliness
events
which
of
occurrence
may
challenge
and
possible
the
occurrence
impacts
of
of
synthesising
public concerns
outcomes
on in
critical
termsissues.
of current strengths and
main
‘highly
issues
probable’
highlighted
situations.
by
the
scanning
activity.
Reduced
group
of
key
stakeholders
looking
at future
weaknesses as well as future opportunities
and
threats.
implications of main findings.
Scanning
Detailed analysis of main issues
around a particular sector/theme
of study (sub-contracted).
R. Popper (2008)
Methodology X (Backward)
Methodology X
(Backward)
Wild cards
SWOT
Expert panels
SWOT
Citizen panels
Delphi
Strategic Creativity
+
Local Expertise
+
Interaction
+
Wild Creativity
+
Broad Expertise
+
Evidence
Citizen Panels
Expert Panels
Internal activity aimed at identifying the success
orRegional
failureof
of
similar
policy
recommendations
Groups
task
experts
forces
looking
contextualising
at future main
being
implemented
in
comparable
contexts,
and
implications
issues
and evaluating
of SWOT
public
findings
acceptance.
and
Large-scale
normative
study
aimed
atclustering
better
decision-making.
main informing
issues
into
broader
such as
formulating
policy
recommendations.
internal
activity
aimed
at dimensions,
identifying disruptive
Wild Cards
Delphi
Scanning
social, and
technological,
events
situations. economic, etc.
Scanning
Large-scale activity (e.g. workshop) aimed
at identifying strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities and threats related to a sector /
theme
/ technology / etc.
Foresight: processes, practices and
methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
EU-LA
COOPERATION
SCOPE 2015
Scenarios for Research and technology development cooperation with Europe
http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/prest/SCOPE
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Project context and objectives
• Scenarios of future science and technology developments in developing
countries 2015
• Project supported by DG Research Directorate K-2 Science and
Technology Foresight
Objectives
– To produce scenarios for the year 2015 focused on contextualised
S&T developments in selected regions of developing countries;
– To analyse the consequences of the scenarios for Europe and
European RTD policy;
– To use the above to provide advice to the European Union in the
field for RTD policies in relation to developing countries.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Regions and selected countries
Region
Countries
Sub-Saharan Africa
Botswana
Ghana
Kenya
Nigeria
Senegal
Latin America
Argentina
Chile
Colombia
Venezuela
Commonwealth of
Independent States
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Maghreb and Mashreq
(Egypt)
Jordan
Morocco
Tunisia
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Regional Cooperation
SCOPE 2015 LA countries (Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Venezuela)
prepared a common scenario for the future cooperation on Foresight
activities under the framework of LARA (Latin American Research Area)
2015
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Thematic Areas for Latin America
1. Biotechnology on agro, health and clothing – e.g. genomic,
proteomic
2. ICT – software, services, applications, cultural and artistic
content, Communication, Informatics Microelectronics,
bioinformatics
3. Natural resources and environmental sciences – e.g.
environmental certification of agro-processes, Biodiversity
4. Health
5. Agro-science and agriculture - Food engineering and
technology, Food security
6. Energy and gas, nuclear technology
7. Material Sciences - metals, polymers, nanotechnology
8. Natural products – leather, textiles and wood
9. Aquaculture and fishing
10. Space technology
11. Clean technologies – for bio-products and bio-processes
12. Mining
13. Transport
14. Fine chemistry
15. Process engineering
16. Electronics
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
EU
Priority
Themes
1. Health
2. Food, agro &
biotechnology
3. ICT
4. Nanotech.
5. Energy
6. Environment
7. Transport
8. Socio-economic
9. Security and
space
R. Popper (2008)
Socio-economic Themes for LA
– Regional and territorial integration problems
– Internal exclusion problems
• learning from EU experiences with NMS
–
–
–
–
–
Social inclusion
Social innovation
Economy & sociology of technological change
Work and employment
Entrepreneurship
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Cooperation Drivers
1. GOVERNANCE AND GLOBALI-SATION
2. EDUCATION AND HUMAN RESOURCES
3. SUSTAINABILITY
4. GLOBALISATION, ECO. & IND. LANSCAPE
5. REGIONAL INTEGRATION
6. RTDI EFFORTS PUBLIC & PRIV. SECTOR
7. PRIVATE SEC. & THE LOCAL TECH. CAP.
8. RTDI AND REGIONAL NEEDS
9. DONOR STRATEGY
10. LINKS WITH RTD COOPERATION
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Forms of cooperation
• Strengthening the SMEs
– especially building capacities (creativity, innovation,
design) of human resources
• Technological transfer
• Building research capabilities
– mobility programmes
– Building capabilities of primary education educators
• Recognising labs and certificates of the countries
• Creating a joint observatory for S&T and funds
• Creating markets and investments
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Actions that needs to be taken
1.
Targeting society’s needs
2.
Reaching society
3.
Mapping and exploiting regional needs and commonalities
4.
Strengthening the SMEs
5.
Technological transfer
6.
Recognising labs and certificates of the countries
7.
Creating a joint observatory for S&T and funds
8.
Creating markets and investments
9.
Creating content and information in Spanish to build Webbased knowledge pool
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
ESCENARIOS 2020
Cooperación en Prospectiva
Euro-latina
Octubre 23, 2008
Flacso – Ciudad de México
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Agenda
12:30 Construcción de grupos y dinámica del seminario-taller
(5 minutos)
12:35 Ejes para la construcción de escenarios de articulación
y cooperación entre la UE y ALC (10 minutos)
12:45 Primera Parte:
– Elaboración de Escenarios de éxito (60 minutos)
– Priorización y pertinencia de factores retardadores y
aceleradores del cambio (30 minutos)
– Diseño de Indicadores de logro y estrategias (45 minutos).
16:30 Segunda parte:
– Presentación de resultados en plenaria
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
ROLES
Each group should appoint a chair and a rapporteur. Either or both of these people may
be responsible for writing notes onto whiteboards and flip charts, etc.
Chair’s role: to keep the break-out groups to their task; to ensure that all participants
have a say and that people are not being excluded due to other people’s forcefulness
or superior status, to defuse conflicts.
Rapporteur’s role: to keep notes on the process and decisions, and be prepared to
report these back to the workshop. Please make brief presentations – 5 minutes at
the absolute maximum. Discussion at this point should be mainly a matter of
clarification and points of information.
Everybody’s role: Remember that you are being asked to participate as an individual,
not a representative of an organisation. Please talk on the basis of your views, your
knowledge. One ground-rule of Foresight work is that remarks are not attributed to
individuals, and people should be free to express their views (and argue about each
other’s views, in the spirit of constructive dialogue!). Of course, due attribution
and thanks should be provided (unless requested otherwise) for work carried out,
data provided, statistical analysis, etc.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Instrucciones
– 1. Cada grupo elaborará un escenario de éxito dentro de la situación
establecida. En cada uno de ellos deberá indicar:
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
(15 min) actores
(15 min) mecanismos de cooperación y organización
(15 min) temas y focos de trabajo
(15 min) factores direccionadores del escenario (LA; EU; EU-LA)
(15 min) implicaciones y grandes preguntas.
– 2. Luego cada grupo deberá generar estrategias para el desarrollo de una
serie de factores claves en la gestión de la cooperación: limitantes (frenos)
y aceleradores del cambio (motores). Las estrategias deberán disminuir la
influencia de los factores limitantes y potenciar la influencia de los
factores aceleradores. Los grupos podrán escoger factores pertinentes al
caso mexicano dentro de la lista suministrada a modo de ejemplo, o
podrán incluir sus propios factores.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
ESCENARIOS
FLACSO-EULAKS
Tipo de Cooperación amplia:
Entrenamiento y capacidades; asesoría y apoyo
Investigación conjunta y construcción de plataformas
Integración
Informal
Grado de Integración
Integración
Formal
Tipo de Cooperación focalizada:
Entrenamiento y capacidades; asesoría y apoyo
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Type of Cooperation
Knowledge Transfer
Advice / Support
Process Design
Methodology support
Process Management
Training / Capacities
Basic
Intermediate
Advanced
Post-graduate
Sustainable Partnership
Joint Research
LA funded
EU funded
EU-LA funded
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Shared Platforms
Knowledge base
Infrastructures
Instruments
R. Popper (2008)
Type of Integration
Formal
Creación de fondos,
Programas de
Formación avanzada,
Movilidad, programas
y proyectos
de investigación
Convenios y
Contratos
Desarrollo de
instituciones
informal
Uniones temporales
Eventos científicos
Puntuales u ocasionales, contactos
Personales
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Servicios de asesoría
y
consultoría
R. Popper (2008)
ESCENARIOS
FLACSO-EULAKS
Tipo de Cooperación amplia:
Transferencia de conocimiento; asesoría y apoyo
Investigación conjunta y construcción de plataformas
Integración
Informal
Grado de Integración
Integración
Formal
Tipo de Cooperación focalizada:
Transferencia de conocimiento;
asesoría y apoyo
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
1. Taller de Desarrollo de los escenarios
(15 minutos para cada factor)
1. a) Actores principales
(públicos, privados, académicos,
sociales)
1. b) Mecanismos de cooperación
prospectiva (y porqué)
Mexicanos
Nivel nacional
Nivel regional
Nivel sectorial
Asesoría y apoyo
Internacionales
Investigación conjunta
Entrenamiento y desarrollo
de capacidades
Desarrollo de plataformas de
aprendizaje
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
1. Factores para los escenarios
1. c) Temas y focos
1. d) Factores direccionadores
(drivers)
Contenido
Latinos (e.g. FLACSO)
Europeos (e.g. FP8)
Mecanismos de selección de
los temas y focos
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Euro-Latinos (e.g.
EULAKS)
R. Popper (2008)
1. Factores para los escenarios
1. e) Implicaciones y grandes preguntas
Política Pública
Desarrollo académico
Desarrollo socioeconómico
Desarrollo territorial
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Oportunidades de Cooperación
Convocatoria Comisión Europea FP7
Activity 8.3. Major trends in society and their
implications
– Area 8.3.2. Societal trends and lifestyles - SSH-2009-3.2.2. Social
platform on research for families and family policies – EUR 1.5M
(support action)
Activity 8.4. Europe in the world
– Area 8.4.1. Interactions and interdependences between world regions and
their implications - SSH-2009-4.1.2 Geopolitics and the role of Europe
in a changing world – EUR 3M (coordinating action)
Convocatorias con fondos latinoamericanos
Actividades
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Reglas de juego de la Comisión Europea
Coordination and support actions (coordinating actions)
At least 3 independent legal entities, each of which is
established in a MS or AC, and no two of which are
established in the same MS or AC.
Coordination and support actions (support actions)
At least 1 legal entity
Reglas de juego desde la cooperación
latinoamericana
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
2. Taller de Estrategias de
Cooperación
Los grupos seleccionarán tres factores aceleradores y tres factores
retardadores del cambio, según su pertinencia y relevancia en el
escenario (30 minutos).
• Los grupos discutirán la lista suministrada de factores. Podrán añadir
factores por consenso si lo consideran necesario (15 minutos)
• Cada participante dentro del grupo tendrá derecho a 3 votos para
elegir los factores aceleradores y retardadores. La votación se
realizará individualmente, luego se consolidarán los resultados de
acuerdo con el número de votos y se construye un consenso. (15
minutos)
Una vez seleccionados los factores aceleradores y retardadores, los
grupos construirán los indicadores de logro y las estrategias para cada
factor (1 hora)
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Factores retardadores del cambio
Comunicación. Necesidad de presupuesto para traducción, sobrecarga la coordinación y debilita la
interacción.
Demandas presupuestarias emergentes. El proyecto tomó un auge demasiado elevado en relación al
proyecto original, requiriendo un mayor presupuesto para su ejecución.
La asimetría de condiciones institucionales y capacidades de los miembros dificultan la asimilación de
contenidos y la fluidez de los procesos organizativos.
La inexperiencia de algunas instituciones, coordinadores y miembros de la red en la gestión de redes de
conocimiento de amplia escala multicultural y en la gestión de las pasantitas).
La falta de referentes comunes para la gestión de redes de conocimiento multiculturales y complejas.
Muchas dificultades podrían anticiparse y resolverse fácilmente si se contara con información previa
de como se pueden poner en marcha redes complejas.
Disparidad en mecanismos de control de las instituciones y desconocimiento de los mismos.
El costo de vida de Europa afecta los recursos para las movilidades provenientes de América Latina.
La escasez de tiempo de los coordinadores locales debido a sus compromisos institucionales dificulta la
óptima atención a los pasantes.
Apoyo Institucional. Usualmente las instituciones participantes cargan al personal con numerosas
actividades que disminuyen el tiempo disponible para las actividades de la red.
Falta de Incentivos. El tiempo de dedicación de la coordinación no es compensado con el porcentaje
asignado.
Problemas de visa de AL-UE, especialmente movilidades desde Perú. Se requirieron 4 meses para activar
la movilidad Perú España; negada visa de Perú a Hungría; al menos 2 meses para lograr una visa
ocasiona dificultades de permiso otorgado por la institución para la realización del tránsito.
Perfil Idóneo y Competencias Claves. Dificultades personales de concursantes seleccionados (que
implicaron la selección de un nuevo candidato y, por ende, un nuevo plan de trabajo), fueron las
principales causas del corrimiento del plan de movilidades.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
Factores aceleradores del cambio
Gestión especializada de la red. La conformación de un Comité Científico y de Gestión de apoyo a la
articulación de actividades de la Red.
Visión compartida de futuro. Identidad de los Coordinadores de la Red con la misión a ser alcanzada, así
como la necesidad de involucrar a otros actores y promover la cultura del pensamiento a largo plazo
como estrategia de desarrollo social.
Compromiso. Dedicación de los miembros de la Red y los Coordinadores.
Dinamismo y desarrollo de puentes. Liderazgo institucional y acceso a contactos claves.
Respaldo y credibilidad. Apoyo de organizaciones que confían en la seriedad de las academias
involucradas.
Elevada curva de experiencia. La experiencia internacional de instituciones líderes en la organización de
procesos colaborativos complejos facilito la orientación del proceso.
Aprovechamiento de la diversidad. La variedad de contextos culturales introduce riqueza de contenidos,
metodologías, percepciones y formas de ver las situaciones.
Enfoque en el aprendizaje colectivo. El enfoque de la red orientado al desarrollo de capacidades motiva
a las personas e instituciones a asumir comportamientos proactivos. Las personas y las instituciones
perciben beneficios tangibles a corto, mediano y largo plazo.
Contacto cercano preexistente. Grado de Confianza y Conocimiento previo entre los miembros facilita el
establecimiento de contactos.
Integración social. El tiempo dedicado a las actividades sociales facilito el establecimiento de lazos
personales entre los miembros, lo cual a su vez contribuyo a la gestión de las soluciones de
dificultades.
Visibilidad. El desarrollo de actividades con resultados visibles promueve la cooperación y maximiza las
oportunidades colectivas.
Aprovechamiento de dinámicas emergentes. Durante el transcurso de las actividades de la red surgen
oportunidades no previstas que pueden conducir a resultados de alto impacto y prolongan la vida de
la red.
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)
ESCENARIOS DE ÉXITO: CAMINO AL FUTURO DESEADO
Factor crítico de éxito
Indicadores de Logro
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
Estrategia
R. Popper (2008)
ESCENARIOS DE ÉXITO: CAMINO AL FUTURO DESEADO
Factor crítico de éxito
Indicadores de Logro
Estrategia
Número de idiomas en
las que se traducen de las
publicaciones de la red
Resaltar logros en revistas,
Número de artículos en
revistas indexadas
Reconocimiento
Valor Agregado
Número de invitaciones
y participaciones en eventos
centrales de prospectiva
Número de solicitudes
de ingreso
Número de vinculaciones
con organismos relevantes
(CYT, internacionales, etc)
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
reportes, publicaciones
Movilizar network personales
y ofertar productos atractivos
y de alta calidad
Priorizar ingreso de
nuevos miembros en términos
de prestigio y trabajo
en el campo
R. Popper (2008)
Many thanks
[email protected]
Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies
R. Popper (2008)