Transcript Shape of things to come - Internet service provider

Wake up to
Vision 2010
By Arthur Goldstuck
We stand at the
dawn of a new era
Everything must change
How far
do you
want to
go in
2010?
The Age of the Vuvuzela
But first, the perils of prediction
The Gartner Hype Cycle 2002
What’s missing?
• Acceleration factors – e.g. market
crashes and regulatory changes
• Retardation factors – e.g. regulatory
• Business orientation – e.g. real needs
• Needs orientation – e.g. real people
• Strategic orientation – e.g.
differentiation
• What lies beyond the plateau?
Hype Cycle for Networking and
Communications, 2004
On the Rise
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Universal Switch
AM/FM/TV Datacasting
Video Telephony
Home Entertainment
Power Line Broadband
At the Peak
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IPv6
XML Appliances
Deep Packet Inspection Firewalls
Telecom Expense Management
Unified Communications
UWB/802.15.3a/WiMedia
WiMAX 802.16d
VDSL
Location-Aware Technology
Sliding Into the Trough
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Ethernet MANs
Cable VoIP
Network Outsourcing
Soft Switches
WAN Compression
ASPs
SIP (session initiation
protocol
•Video Streaming
•802.3af — Power
Over Ethernet
•NG Satellite
•Unified Messaging
•Wi-Fi Hot Spots
•Bluetooth Peer-toPeer
Climbing the Slope
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IP Telephony
MPLS Services
IPsec VPNs
VoIP
MPLS
GPRS
DWDM
Entering the Plateau
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ADSL/Cable Modem
Managed Router Services
Wi-Fi 802.11a/g
Wi-Fi 802.11g
Off the Hype Cycle
• Wi-Fi 802.11b
And onto the bandwagon
VOIP
Skype
SIP
Software phones
IP-phones
Wi-IP-3G phones
But first, the connectivity and
e-commerce environment
Internet users in SA
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Last year of 100% growth: 1997
2000: 2 416 000 (32%)
2001: 2 886 000 (20%)
2002: 3 098 000 (7%)
2003: 3 283 000 (6%)
2004: 3.5m (6%)?
Online retail in SA
• 2000: R82-million
• 2001: R162-million
– (last year of 100% growth)
• 2002: R252-million (55%)
• 2003: approx. R350m (40%)
• Forecast for 2004: R470m (33%)?
Comparisons are deceptive
Internet users with 5 years experience:
• 2001: 354 700 (78% growth)
• 2002: 696 620 (96% growth)
• 2003: 1 266 235 (81% growth)
• 2004: 1 820 000 (44% growth)
Online bank accounts in SA
• 2002: 815 000
• 2003: 1 060 000 (28%)
• 2004: 1 400 000 (32%)
• Growth rate still upward
• Full online user base is target market
• Online bankers can become retail target
Segmentation is the key
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3.28m with Internet access
1.2m with 5 years’ experience
1.04m online bank accounts
Estimate: 800 000 online banking
clients
• Of these, half only access statements
• 400 000 people conduct transactions
The Shopping Gap
• 400 000 conducting transactions within a
walled, secure, guaranteed, policed and
audited environment
• Best case scenario: 200 000 venture out
• In 2010, 3.6-4m will have 5 years experience
• 3-million online banking customers
• 2-million people conduct transactions
• 1-million people shopping online
Acceleration factors
• Smart cards in 2010:
– 25-million SIM
– 20-million Telco prepaid
– 20-million EMV (credit and debit)
– 30-million HANIS
– 6-million Pension
Total: 100-million+ Smart cards in circulation
Acceleration factors
• Connectivity 2005-2007:
– The emergence of the Voice Service
Provider (VSP)
– Internet connectivity gets third pillar
• E-mail
• Banking
• Voice
The consequence by 2009
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Growth accelerates
Experience curve flattens
Market explodes
Bubble returns
Fingers burn
The sooner we get over it, the sooner
we can make this whole thing work
In 2010, visitors to SA will see…
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Beautiful roads system
World class hotels
Superb stadiums
A platform to present SA to the world
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Protest marches over Gautrain prices
Informal settlers demanding delivery
Vigilante groups targeting Vuvuzelas
Campaign for free telephony
– and…
Connectivity a given
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Wi-fi everywhere
VOIP built into all connectivity
Virtual Telcos competing for attention
Internet cafes will be VSPs
The secret will lie in adding value,
applications and utility
• and in negotiating with the Digital Chasm
Action Committee
» and then …
Universal Communications Service
• Pick up FlashTalk, your free flash drive at the
airport, soft phone installed
• Plug it into your IP phone
• Or the nearest Smart terminal
• Swipe your Smart Card
• You can now use it at any VSP in SA
• Voice, mail, video-messages, transactions
• A world in the palm of your hand
Hi-tech or ooh-tech?
Don’t get hooked on the technology
Think public
Think business
Think strategy
Think reality
The Race is not
always to the swift
You’ve got 5 years …
Contact Arthur Goldstuck (011) 7827003
[email protected]
World Wide Worx web site
http://www.theworx.biz