Transcript CIGRE Presentation Germany 18-11-03

"Energy efficiency and new
technology challenges"
With emphasis on electric power systems
Krešimir Bakič
Slovenian National committee CIGRE
Miločer, 16 May, 2011
1
Plan of presentation
1. Efficiency of energy systems
2. Efficiency of electric power system
3. Advanced technologies for conversion to electricity
4. New technologies for networks
5. Posibilities to improve efficiency on demand side
6. E-mobility
7. Concludions
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
2
World energy/electricity system
overview
World energy final
consumption (TWh)
World electricity consumption
(TWh)
2007
137.000
16.500
2015
150.000
20.000
2030 - Blue
184.000
30.000
• Up to 2030 electricity consumption will increase two times faster than energy growth,
• Installing capacity for electricity generation will increase even faster.
Leading driver is ENERGY
EFFICIENCY
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
3
Energy systems development drivers
GENERALY IN THE WORLD
1. Permanent increasing of demand and consumption
2. Reliability of the power systems,
3. Sustenability and reducion of CO2.
Technology
development
drivers
EU
1. Competition,
2. Reliability and solidarity,
3. Sustenability and reducion of CO2
RELIABILITY
Key role play: research and development.
Key for competition are innovations.
Technology trends: Quality, Reliability, Increasing
utilization, more ICT involved, Reduction of
dimensions, shorter supply time.
RENEWABLES
ENERGY
EFFICIENCY
Leading driver is ENERGY
EFFICIENCY
ENERGY SECTOR FOCUS:
Integration of renewables and non carbon technologies.
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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Energy system chain and impact
of future technologies
Efficiency at different level
Existing
technologies
60%
Future technologies
(2030)
75%
Energy transformations
70%
80%
Transit, distribution and
storages
96%
98%
50%
60%
20%
35%
Efficiency of energy wells
Demand side
-Industy
-mobility
-Small consumption
total
* In 1980 this factor was 15% for USA and Europe
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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Energy system losses
losses %
Energy transformation
32
Transport, distribution and storages
3
Demand side
65
Directive 2006/32/ES from April 5, 2006 on Energy efficiency
on demand side and energy services.
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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Electric power system – value chain
EU-27
Population
G
50-60%
1000 €/kW
525 milijonov
Annual
production
TWh
3 300
Instal capacity
GW
Average capital
cost
1000 €/kW
880 G€
110HV/400EHV
km
500.000
MV/LV omrežje
km
5.000.000
Capital cost for
HV network
0.5 M€/km
250 G€
Capital cost for
MV/LV network
0.05
M€/km
250 G€
880
network
T
300 €/kW
D
7-14%
25-36%
900 €/kW
Total capital cost
Slovenia
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
1380 G€
Per capita
EU-27 area
Ca. 2600 €
km2
4 3257000
Electric power system efficiency
88 % loss
65 % loss
9 % loss
G
coal
100 %
Incandescent light
electricity
30 %
~3 %
electricity
28 %
Needs to increase efficiency with new technology: conversion level, demand side.
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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Technologies for conversions to electricity
Efficiency of technology for TPP
Tehnology
PCC coal/lignite
PCC lignite with CCS
PCC hard coal
IGCC coal
IGCC hard coal (USA)
FBC supercritical
Load
factor
%
85
85
85
85
85
85
Efficiency
η
Capital cost
Euro/kW
Install
MW
43
37
46
45
32
40
1600-2500
3000
1600
600
740
800
400
380
300
PCC lignite power plants with larger units have better efficiency (39-46%)
Future TPP will operate with 350 bar/700 0C, and efficiency about 50%.
PPC … pulverized coal combustion
IGCC … integrated gasification combined cycle
FBC …fluidized bed combustion
CCS … carbon capture and storage
Source: IEA, NEA, Projected cost of generating electricity, 2010.
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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Technologies for conversions to electricity
Efficiency of technology for NPP
Technology
PWR
EPR-1600
APWR, ABWR
average
Load factor
%
85
85
85
Capital cost
Euro/kW
3200 (DE)
3600 (VGB)
2300 (EPRI)
3200
Install
MW
1600
1600
1400
Efficiency of NPP: 33%
Efficiency of technology for gas power plants
Technology
CCGT (Germany)
CCGT s CCS (USA)
Efficiency
η
57-60
40
Capital cost
Euro/kW
800
1500
Install
MW
800
400
Source: IEA, NEA, Projected cost of generating electricity, 2010.
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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Technologies for conversions to electricity
Renewable sources
RES/technology
Load factor
%
WIND - onshore
WIND - offshore (near)
WIND - offshore (far away)
Solar PV
HPP – runriver
HPP – pump storages
HPP – Three Gorges
Biomas
Geothermal
Geothermal
21-41
34
43
10-24
80
29
53
85
70
87
Nett capacity
MW
2-100
100
100
0.002-20
1000
1000
18134
10
5
50
Capital cost
Euro/kW
1500-2800
2800
3400
3000-5000
2700
2100
9900
1300
Source of
info:
Swiss
Eurelectric
Eurelectric
IEA
Eurelectric
Eurelectric
IEA
IEA
CZE
USA
WP- onshore technology will improve up to 2020 (average spec. cost should be about 1000 Euro/kW)
WP- offshore technology will improve up to 2020 (average spec. cost should be about 2000-2 300 Euro/kW)
PV will drastic reduce cost. Up to 2030 should be1000-1200 Euro/kW.
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
Source: IEA, NEA, Projected cost of generating electricity,
11 2010.
Potential generation from RES
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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EU Projects of massive RES
Wind
300 GW
25 000 km2
5000 x 10 km
13
EU Projects of massive RES
pepei.pennnet.com
Solar
700 GW
8000 km2
90 x 90 km
14
Transmission system technologies
Milestones:
-1885 invention of TR
-1888 AC polyphase machine
-1891 first 3p AC transmission
-1952 UCPTE
-1974 YU connected with UCPTE
-1989 E&W liberalization
-1999 EU - IEM
First idea on pan-european network - 1930
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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Technologies for transmission and
Tehnologije za prenos in distribucijo
distribution
1956
• ENTSO-E organization of former UCTE, UKTSOA
NORDEL, ATSOI, BALTSO, ETSO.
• All together 42 TSO from 34 countries.
• Supply 525 milion people in 2010
• 880 GW install power and 270,000 km network
• 3,300 TWh/a and about 400 TWh/a exchange
Average losses in transmission and distribution network
area
1974
2008
Europe
N. Amerika
S. Amerika
Japan
China
India
Africa
WORLD
transmission
distribution
Losses in %
7.3
7.1
18.3
9.1
9.5
7.2
10.0
9.2
25%
75%
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Tehnologije za prenos in distribucijo
1. New materials for conductors and other system elements,
2. Superconducting elements (HTS),
3. Electricity storage systems,
4. ICT , sensors, control,
5. Dispersed sources technologies,
6. FACTS, HVDC,
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Tehnologije za prenos in distribucijo
Electricity storage technologies
Electro-Chemical
Mechanical
Electro-Magnetic
Technology
Innovation
Year
Lead-acid battery
Ni-Cd battery
Li-ion battery
Na-S battery
Redox (Flow battery)
Pump Hydro Storage
Compressed air (CAES)
Flywheels (FW)
SMES
Supercapacitor
1859
1899
1970
1980
1980
1909
1978
1990
1976
1977
Energy
density
(Wh/kg)
50
70
200
200
35
300/m3
2000/m3
110
30
Efficienc
y
η
0,77
0,80
0,86
0,85
0,75
0,72
0,64
0,81
0,96
0,95
Source: K. Bakic, Tehnologije shranjevanja električne energije, 2010
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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New technology for
transmission
3 Commercial aplications in USA in 07-08:
HTS system - L=609 m; cost about 40 MUSD
19
Posibilities to improve efficiency on
demand side
• Lighting examples (appr. 12% consumption)
0.2%
Edison
21.10.1879
ɳ - light
2008
Incandescent
(4%)
15 lm/W
flourescent
100 lm/W
LED (lab.)
(40%)
150-200
LED
commercial
50-100
lm/W
36 %
0.3%
4%
LED = light-emitting diode
20
E-mobility
• Impact of electrical vehicles on efficiency
Example:
100.000 cars with annual 15.000
km/car means average fuel
consumption of 1500 l/car or total
1.500 GWh (gasoline).
Equivalent EV for same path would
spent 250 GWh of electricity from
renewables (Hydro, wind, solar, biogas).
For LV level its mean 10% increasing
consumption in energy but in power it
can be more than 50% - huge problem.
We should recognize differences
between energy and power (condition
for designing of network)
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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E-mobility
Case study for BMW Mini-E:
- 35 kWh battery needs for filling about 4-5
hours (32 A/220V)
- Consumption is 140 Wh/km = ca. 7 km/kWh
- One filling equal about 220 km.
- Cost for filling in high tariff is about 5 €.
- Car for rent is 650 € per month.
- On the market in 2012.
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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conclusions
• New technology enables increasing energy efficiency at all levels of
energy value chain,
• Last decades energy efficiency increased very high at the energy
conversions part of chain by new technology improvements and
attained almost 50% . Energy efficiency is particular important in
thermal power systems,
• More renewable sources we have in our system , less important is
energy efficiency ,
• Evaluation for possibilities of reducing losses in T&D sector have
shown about 30%.
• The largest improvements of energy efficiency we can expect on
demand side by smart grids technology and e-mobility
implementation.
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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Thank you for your attention!
K. Bakič, NC CIGRE Slovenia
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• Razvoj tehnologija mjerenja električne energije
Pametna brojila - 2000
1882 – Edisonov mjerač
potrošnje električne
energije
25