Transcript Agricultural Policy, Growth and Constraints in Punjab

Food Security Concerns and
Agricultural Policy:
Their Environmental
Implications for Indian Punjab
R.S. Sidhu
Issues
1. What are the changes in crop
pattern?
2. What is the relationship between
production and procurement?
3. What are the implications of high
growth in foodgrain production w.r.t.
ground water resources and soil?
Gross value of crop output at 2001-02
prices (Rs. crore)
1967-68
Rice
Wheat
Cotton
Oilseeds
Pulses
Sugarcan
e
Other
cereals
Aggregat
e
2394
21036
10203
4571
7637
432
5872
52145
%
4.59
40.34
19.57
8.77
14.65
0.83
11.26
100
1980-81
18757
48365
17490
2677
6675
353
4111
98428
%
19.06
49.14
17.77
2.72
6.78
0.36
4.18
100
1990-91
37735
76602
29062
1150
7872
540
2272
155232
%
24.31
49.35
18.72
0.74
5.07
0.35
1.46
100
2001-02
51133
98217
19569
930
2006
838
2696
175389
%
29.15
56.00
11.16
0.53
1.14
0.48
1.54
100
8.56
4.10
1.35
-4.58
-1.35
1.38
-3.17
3.53
CGR (%)
Source: Singh and Sidhu, 2004
Cropping Pattern in Punjab (% of GCA)
Crop
1970-71
1980-81
1990-91
2001-02
Rice
8.27
20.49
30.50
35.74
Wheat
48.77
48.72
49.48
49.09
Maize
11.75
6.62
2.84
2.37
Gram
7.59
4.47
0.91
0.86
Groundnut
3.69
1.44
0.17
0.05
Rapeseed & Mustard
2.19
2.18
1.12
0.70
Sugarcane
2.72
1.23
1.53
2.05
American Cotton
4.50
8.70
10.47
7.28
Inputs use pattern in Punjab
Year
Area under
HYV
Fert.Use
Irrigated
area
(%)
Rice
(000h
a)
Wheat
(000ha)
Total
(000
Nutrient
tons)
70-71
130
1589
213
50
71
80-81
1095
2757
762
180
90-91
1906
3271
1220
02-03
2530
3375
1441
Tubewells
(In
’000)
Per Ha
NSA
(nutrient
kgs)
Tractors
Cropping
Intensit
y
(%)
Total
(In
Thousands)
No./000
ha
192
5.3
1.3
140
81
600
119
28.4
161
290
93
800
289
68.5
178
340
95
1150
451
106.8
185
Average use of inputs for wheat and
rice in Punjab (Per ha)
Year/Crop
Fertilizer use (kg of
nutrients)
Chemical Use
(Rs. at 1980-81 prices)
1981-84
156.70
57.31
1998-2000
224.00
202.27
1981-84
180.50
113.69
1998-2000
182.80
267.75
Wheat
Paddy
Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons)
Year
Rice
Punjab India
Wheat
% share Punjab India
%
share
1981-82 to 1985-86
18145 41851
43.4
27650
46193
59.9
1986-87 to 1990-91
20426 48324
42.3
27051
42222
64.1
1991-92 to 1995-96
23928 61319
39.0
31208
51568
60.5
1996-97 to 2000-01
28373 80067
35.4
39922
73079
54.6
Source: Economic Survey, Government of India, various issues.
Changes in consumption expenditure
(Rs/capita for 30 days at 1980-81 prices)
Punjab
Items
All India
1987-88
1999-00
1987-88
1999-2000
Rural
Cereals
18.63
20.30
28.68
29.61
Pulses
5.02
6.18
4.35
5.08
31.14
35.15
9.46
11.70
Meat, fish, egg
1.06
1.55
3.55
4.44
Vegetables
7.45
9.85
5.71
8.24
Fruits, fresh
2.66
2.60
1.78
1.89
97.54
106.70
69.97
79.36
Cereals
18.13
20.76
25.66
29.01
Pulses
5.43
6.88
5.86
6.66
29.39
35.70
16.54
20.38
1.92
2.57
6.14
7.36
Vegetables
10.07
11.35
9.10
12.06
Fruits, fresh
4.64
4.75
4.35
4.58
103.37
116.39
96.98
112.90
Milk and Milk products
All food
Urban
Milk and Milk products
Meat, fish, egg
All food
Source: NSS data.
Brief Contours of Agricultural Policy in India
India
• Land reforms 1950s
• Public Investments on Irrigation Development
• Setting up of Agricultural Prices Commission and Food
Corporation of India for procurement of foodgrains, 1965
• Green Revolution, 1966-70
• Land ceiling and distribution of surplus land, 1972
• Integrated Rural Development Program, 1976• National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development,
1982
• Setting up of RRBs
• Economic Reforms, 1991
• Implementation of WTO agreement, 1995
• Targeting of PDS, 1997
• Doubling flow of Institutional Agricultural Credit, 2005
• Encouraging Agro-processing, 2005
• Expanding Micro Irrigation, 2005
• Agricultural Market Reforms, 2005
Growth and Variability in Output Prices
Year
Paddy
Wheat
Barley
Maize
Gram
Musta
rd
Cotton
(Am)
1980-81
113
130
105
105
165
250
304
1990-91
225
225
200
180
450
600
620
2000-01
540
610
500
445
1100
1200
1625
2004-05
590
640
540
525
1425
1700
1760
1980-81 to 90-91
5.98
4.93
5.39
4.56
8.51
7.35
5.84
1990-91 to 200001
9.28
10.43
8.70
8.88
8.61
6.22
10.32
2.45
1.70
3.74
4.54
7.21
9.14
2.12
CGR (%)
1999-00 to 200405
Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02
Wheat
Rapeseed
Gram
Barley
Paddy
Cotton
Am
16.95
16.4
18.3
21.2
9.0
25.8
Cotton
Desi
G'nut
Maize
22.5
24.6
21.5
Input and Output Prices Index for Wheat and Paddy in Punjab
Output
Fertilizer
Chemicals
1981-82
100
100
100
1991-92
176
126.68
205.10
1998-99
366.9
192.16
317.9
1981-82
100
100
100
1991-92
203.7
112.6
158.3
1998-99
378.5
180.6
339.6
Year
Wheat
Paddy
Agricultural subsidies in Punjab
(Rs 10 millions)
Fertilizers
Electricity
Canal Irrigation
1985-86
266
94
11
1995-96
567
693
30
1999-2000
1061
1939
65
2003-04
1088
807*
37
Year
* as per calculations of Punjab State Electricity Regulatory Commission.
Source: Economic Survey of India and Punjab, various issues.
Realisation of cost and level of
subsidy on power supply to agriculture
199192
199293
199394
199495
199596
199697
199798
199899
199900
ACR
(%)
10.44
9.39
13.81
22.27
23.83
16.34
0
0
0
Subsidy
Rs.
million
4664.2
6448.4
7706.5
7201.6
7226.2
9250.4
14701.9
16903.9
20161.8
Share of different crops/enterprises and
other activities in the research budget of the
University
Year
Research
Budget
(Rs.
Million)
Percentage of Research budget to
Whe
at &
rice
Cotton
and
S’cane
Other
field
crops
Horticu
ltre
Livesto
ck and
fishery
Post
harvest
ing
Market
ing
Others
1980
41.5
16
15
12
12
16
5
1.2
23
1990
144.1
18
12
18
13
11
3
0.5
24
2000
547.1
19
10
12
12
12
4
0.7
30
2001
608.5
20
9
11
11
11
5
0.7
31
Growth and Variability in productivity
of different crops in Punjab
Crop
CGR 1965/66 to 2001-02
CV of de-trended yield
1970-71 to 2001-02
Paddy
2.72
9.08
Cotton
0.27
25.74
S’cane
1.66
15.65
Maize
1.39
13.33
Wheat
2.76
4.88
Gram
0.25
19.57
Rapeseed
2.57
13.15
Increase in proportionate area of the central zone
under water table depth of more than 10 meter
In per cent
Year
Central zone
South west zone
5-10 mt
>10 mt
5-10 mt
>10 mt
1996
69
25
47
8
1998
49
42
43
12
2000
41
53
50
9
2004
10
90
52
10
Per cent area under different water
table depths in central zone
100
80
60
<5 mt
40
5-10 mt
>10 mt
20
0
1973
1990
2000
2002
2004
Ground Water Status in Punjab
Rate of
Exploitation
(%)
Blocks (in per cent of total)
SubMountainous
Central
(Paddy zone)
South West
(Cotton zone)
Punjab
Below 100
78
17
76
47
100-200
22
63
12
41
200-300
0
15
6
9
300-400
0
3
3
2
Above 400
0
2
3
1
36
69
33
138
Total Blocks
Rise/ fall in Water table
43 

Sangrur

Patiala
33 

Jalandhar
22 

Amritsar
18 

Kapurthala
17 

Faridkot
13 

Ludhiana
13 

Ropar
08 

Hoshiarpur-1 02 

Gurdaspur

Hoshiarpur-2 05 

Mansa
09 

Ferozpur
17 

Bathinda
21 
02 
Average water table depth (m) in
different zones
Zones
Measured
Predicted
1993
2003
2013
2023
Submontane
17.6
18.5
19.4
20.3
Central
11.1
16.2
21.3
26.5
Southwest
6.8
8.9
10.9
13.3
N, P, K Status of Punjab Soils, 1981 through
2002
(In per cent samples deficient)
Low
Nutrient
availability
Medium
High
1981-90
19912002
1981-90
19912002
1981-90
19912002
N (OC)
78
66
22
32
0
2
P
48
62
29
23
23
15
K
8
9
45
51
46
40
Deficiency of Micro nutrients in Punjab Soils
(% samples deficient)
District
Year
Cu
Fe
Mn
Ludhiana
1970
0
0
2
2004
2
7
22
1990
4
7
0
2000
0
18
35
Amritsar 1984
0
0
0
2001
0
4
12
1985
1
4
2
2002
0
5
3
Sangrur
Patiala
Incidence of Diseases
• In 1970s
• Wheat
-Yellow and brown
rust
-Flag smut
-Karnal bunt
• Rice:
-Disease free
• Cotton:
-Disease free
• Present Position
• Wheat:
-New HYVs became susceptible to new
races of brown rust
-Flag smut minimized
-Karnal bunt became wide spread
-Other important diseases: head scab,
leaf blight
• Rice:
-Bacterial leaf blight major disease;
-Other diseases: sheath blight, sheath
rot, false smut, kernel smut
• Cotton:
-Leaf curl virus of cotton
Incidence of insect-pests
• In 1970s
• Rice:
-Pest free crop
• Present Position
• Rice:
-Yellow stem borer and leaf
folder are key pests
-Others important are white
backed plant hopper and rice
hispa
• Cotton:
• Cotton:
-Cotton white fly became key
-Cotton white fly was a
pest
minor pest
-American cotton bollworm
-American cotton bollworm
became epidemic
reported in localized
areas
Incidence of Weeds
• In 1970s
• Rice:
-Echinocloa (swank)
was predominant
• Present Position
• Rice:
-Echinocloa is predominant
-New weeds: Ischeamum ruzosum
(kanaki), Ceasulia axillaris
(ghrilla), Sphenochlea zylancia
• Wheat:
• Wheat:
-Broad leaf weeds
and wild oats
-Phalaris minor is predominant and
were predominant
has become resistant to
Isoproturon through continuous
use
-New weeds in some areas: Rumex
spinosus (jangli palak),
Medicago denticulata (Maina)
Share of Livestock in Agriculture
(Rs crore at 1980/81 prices)
Year
1985-86
1990-91
2001-02
Agri.
Livestock
Agri+
Milk Prod.
Exp. on milk and
milk products at
1985/86p (Rs/capita)
Livestock
000’ tons
Rural
Urban
4035
39.36
37.15
(33.17)
(28.43)
40.96
37.65
(33.17)
(29.86)
39.69
45.2
(34.62)
(34)
2036
944.8
2980.8
(68.3)
(31.7)
(100)
2303
1271.3
3574.3
(64.4)
(35.6)
(100)
2876
2026.7
4902.7
(58.7)
(41.3)
(100)
5142
7930
The figures in parentheses in case of expenditure on milk and milk proucts
represent percent of food expenditure.
Factors affecting Milk Production
Year
Milk
Prod.
(000
tons)
Milk
Processing
Capacity
(‘000 lit/day)
Coop. Milk Per Capita Milk
collecting Income (Rs Prices
at
1979-81 (Rs/liter
centers
wholesale
1980/81
(No.)
prices)
consumer
prices)
1980-81
3221
950
2593
22588
2.82
1990-91
5142
2090
5263
3416
3.74
2001-02
7930
5535
5812
5111
4.14
CGR (%)
4.57
9.11
3.08
3.11
2.40
Reg. Coeff. (Dependent: 0.462
Milk prod.)
(8.46)
0.218
0.589
442.50
(4.28)
(3.60)
(3.83)
Elasticity of Milk
prod.
0.188
0.400
0.282
-
0.235
at
Share of Livestock in NSDP of Primary Sector in
different regions/districts (%)
1980-81
1990-91
2000-01
Sub-Mountain Zone
38.08
35.52
38.65
Gurdaspur
40.27
37.78
40.02
Hoshiarpur
36.24
32.63
35.31
Ropar
37.8
35.77
43.09
Central Zone
34.32
32.26
38.56
Amritsar
37.47
32.69
44.97
Kapurthala
32.8
25.44
34.76
Jalandhar
38.2
31.25
35.04
Ludhiana
34.02
37.61
44.9
Sangrur
31.6
29.33
32.79
Patiala
32.14
31.16
34.4
South Zone
23.65
20.93
25.4
Ferozpur
28.08
21.35
27.22
Faridkot
26.89
20.49
25.1
Bathinda
12.4
20.96
23.75
Determinants of Livestock Growth
Depend:
Livestock
(primary)
Share
of
in
NSDP SubMountainou
s Zone
Reg.
Coeff.
(linear)
Central
Zone
South
Zone
38.65
38.56
25.4
Av. Milk Yield
4.26
4.68
3.84
Crop Productivity (Rs/ha)
19773
25153
24430
-0.88
Real PCI (Rs at1980/81p)
5430
6866
6086
0.954
Share of Livestock
Economic Factors
Institutional and Infrastructural Factors
Milk Soc/100 sq km area
19
13
6
Villages/milk society
2.34
2.23
1.91
Animals/Vet. Hospital
3077
3555
4257
Road Density
126
125
84
Urbanisation (%)
26
34
27
0.27
Literacy (%)
78
71
58
0.25
0.59
Thank You