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The Electoral College 1 7/17/2015 Political Science Module Developed by PQE Learning Objectives 2 Trace the history of the electoral college. Describe the role of the electoral college in the presidential election process. Evaluate the electoral college, assessing the validity of arguments offered by its critics and its defenders. Describe and assess proposals for reforming the electoral college. Assess the likelihood of electoral college reform. Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Key Terms 3 Electoral College Electors Political Legitimacy Winner-Take-All Election System Small State Bias Direct Popular Election Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 True or False? The candidate with the most votes is elected president. Answer: Not necessarily. Ask Al Gore. 4 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 The 2000 Election The Popular Vote Al Gore George W. Bush 50,996,039 50,456,141 The Electoral Vote George W. Bush Al Gore 5 271 267 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Historical Background 6 The framers of the Constitution disagreed on how to elect a president—congressional selection or direct popular election. The electoral college was a compromise, combining features of both approaches. Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 The Electoral College and Federalism The electoral college also reflects the federal nature of the Constitution because it ensures that the states have a role in selecting the president. 7 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 State Electoral Votes Each state is entitled to as many electoral votes as the sum of its representation in the U.S. House and Senate Texas: 32 House members plus 2 senators = 34 electoral votes Arkansas: 4 House members plus 2 senators = 6 electoral votes Total: 435 House members plus 100 senators plus 3 electors for the District of Columbia = 438 electoral votes 8 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Electors 9 Individuals selected in each state to officially cast that state’s electoral votes. Texas selects 34 electors to cast the state’s 34 electoral votes. Framers anticipated that electors would be state leaders who would exercise good judgment. Today, party leaders select competing slates of electors who are typically long-time party activists. Electors almost always vote for their party’s candidates. Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Selection of Electors 10 Each state determines the manner of selection All but two states use a winner-take-all statewide election system If Candidate A gets the most votes in a state, Candidate A gets the whole slate of electors. Maine and Nebraska award electors based on the statewide vote and the vote in each of the state’s congressional districts. Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Voters and Electors A Texan who votes for Bush is really voting for a slate of electors pledged to cast the state’s electoral votes for Bush. In 2000, Bush won all of Florida’s 25 electoral votes because the final official vote tally showed him ahead of Gore by about 600 votes. 11 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 The Real Election In December, the electors gather in their respective state capitols to cast ballots for president and vice president. In January, Congress convenes, opens the ballots received from each state, and announces the official outcome. 12 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 What if no one receives a majority? 13 To win, a candidate needs a majority, that is, 270 electoral votes. If no candidate has a majority, the House selects the president from among the three presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. Each state delegation has one vote. This last happened in 1824 when Congress chose John Quincy Adams over Andrew Jackson and William Crawford. The Senate selects the vice president from the top two vice-presidential candidates. Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Popular Vote v. the Electoral Vote In a close race, the popular vote winner may not win the electoral college. One candidate may win states by lopsided margins while the other wins states by narrow margins. One candidate may be helped by winning most of the smaller states, which benefit from the small-state bias caused by each state getting at least three electoral votes regardless of its size. Electoral vote winners who lost the popular vote Bush over Gore in 2000 Benjamin Harrison over Grover Cleveland in 1888 Rutherford B. Hayes over Samuel Tilden in 1876 14 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Criticisms of the Electoral College 15 The popular vote winner may lose the presidency. Electors may vote for persons other than their party’s presidential and vice presidential candidates. If no candidate receives a majority, Congress will pick the president and vice president. Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Political Legitimacy Political legitimacy is the popular acceptance of a government and its officials as rightful authorities in the exercise of power. 16 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Political Legitimacy and the Electoral College The proponents of the electoral college believe that it conveys legitimacy to the winner in most closely fought presidential elections. For example, Bill Clinton won 69 percent of the electoral vote in 1992 despite capturing only 43 percent of the popular vote. The electoral college gave Clinton the appearance of the majority support necessary to be an effective president. 17 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 But don’t forget Florida The 2000 election demonstrated that the electoral college can sometimes undermine a president’s legitimacy. Because of the electoral college, the outcome of the national presidential election was in doubt for more than a month even though one candidate enjoyed a clear popular vote plurality nationwide. The U.S. Supreme Court eventually determined the outcome of the election by halting the vote count in Florida. 18 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Proposals for Reform 19 Eliminate electors but still count electoral votes. Select electors based on the proportion of the vote each candidate gets in each state. Select electors by congressional districts with two electors chosen at large in each state. Choose the president by direct popular election. Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Critique of the Reforms 20 Critics attack some reforms for not going far enough. Critics attack other reforms because of the danger that they would produce unintended bad consequences. Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Will Reform Happen? 21 Amending the Constitution is not easy. Small states would be opposed to reform because they benefit from the current system. Groups that are concentrated in states with large numbers of electoral votes (such as Cuban Americans, Jewish Americans, urban residents, etc.) would be opposed to reform because it would diminish their influence. Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Review Question North Carolina has 13 U.S. representatives. How many electoral votes does the state have? 22 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Answer North Carolina has 15 electoral votes. The formula is the number of U.S. senators, which is two for each state, plus the number of U.S. representatives. Two plus 13 equals 15. 23 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Review Question Who are electors? 24 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Answer They are individuals selected in each state to officially cast that state’s electoral votes. Electors are typically long-time party activists who are selected by their state party organization as a reward for their loyalty to the party. In most states, electors are officially pledged to support their party’s presidential and vice presidential candidates. 25 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Review Question Does it matter whether a candidate carries a state by a few votes or a lot of votes? 26 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Answer No. A candidate receives all of a state’s electoral votes whether the candidate carries the state by one vote or a million votes. In every state except Nebraska and Maine, the race is winner take all. 27 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Review Question What is the small state bias? 28 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Answer The electoral college has a small state bias because every state gets at least three electoral votes regardless of its population. As a result, small states such as Alaska, Wyoming, and South Dakota enjoy a greater percentage of electoral votes than they would merit based strictly on population. 29 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Review Question Why would most Cuban American political leaders likely oppose replacing the electoral college with direct popular election? 30 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Answer The electoral college gives Cuban Americans a disproportionate influence in national politics because of their concentration in the state of Florida, a state with a sizable number of electoral votes that is closely divided politically. Candidates for president cannot afford to ignore the political concerns of Cuban Americans because of their role in Florida elections. 31 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Discussion Question Why didn’t the 2000 election trigger a major effort to reform the electoral college? 32 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Discussion Question How does the electoral college impact candidate strategy in presidential election campaigns? 33 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015 Discussion Question Do you favor or oppose replacing the electoral college with a different system for selecting a president? If you support reform, what sort of system would you prefer? 34 Political Science Module Developed by PQE 7/17/2015