Transcript Energy Technology Transitions for Industry

ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
Industrial Energy
Efficiency and Technology
Trends and Scenarios
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Dr Peter Taylor
Head, Energy Technology Policy Division
International Energy Agency
International Workshop on Industrial Energy Efficiency
27 January 2010, New Delhi, India
Overview of Presentation
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
 IEA work to track industrial
energy efficiency
FOR INDUSTRY
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
 Future scenarios and technology
options
© OECD/IEA - 2009
 Next steps
Energy use in Industry (2007)
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
Food and
tobacco
6%
FOR INDUSTRY
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
Textile and
leather
1%
India
Iron and
steel
25%
Pulp, paper
and
printing
2%
Other
37%
Total
aluminium
2%
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Source: IEA Statistics
Chemicals
18%
Cement
9%
Food and
tobacco
5%
Textile and
leather
2%
Other
27%
World
Iron and
steel
20%
Pulp, paper
and
printing
6%
Total
aluminium
3%
Cement
8%
Chemicals
29%
IEA Approach to Tracking
Industrial Energy Efficiency
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
 Current efficiencies & past trends
on a country or regional level, by
sector
 Focus on energy and CO2 emissions
per unit of physical product
(tonnes)
 Proposes multiple indicators: there
exists no “true” country ranking
© OECD/IEA - 2009
 Assess realistic technical long term
improvement potentials (based on
indicators)
Types of Indicators
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
 Energy Use Indicators
 Energy use per tonne of clinker
 Energy use per tonne of crude steel
 CO2 Indicators
 CO2 emissions per tonne of steel
 CO2 emissions per tonne of cement
© OECD/IEA - 2009
 Explanatory Indicators
 Clinker to cement ratio
 Alternative fuel use in clinker
production
 Ratio of BOF/EAF for steel making
Cement Indicator – Thermal
energy use per tonne clinker
ENERGY
6.0
TECHNOLOGY
5.5
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY
Energy intensity (GJ/t clinker)
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
5.0
China
India
United States
4.5
Canada
Mexico
Germany
4.0
Japan
Korea
Italy
3.5
Spain
Brazil
3.0
Thailand
Weighted average
© OECD/IEA - 2009
2.5
2.0
1990
1992
1994
Includes alternative fuels use
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Iron and Steel Indicator Blast Furnace Reductant Use
2007
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
Efficiency of Coal-fired Power
Generation
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
45%
TRANSITIONS
40%
FOR INDUSTRY
35%
30%
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Average 2003-2007
1990
Cement Sector - BAT energy
savings potential 2006
ENERGY
3 000
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
2 500
2.2
1.9
2 000
2.5
Electricity saving
Fuel saving
Specific energy savings potential (GJ/t cement)
1.5
1 500
2.0
1.5
1.3
1.1
1 000
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.5
500
1.0
0.8
0.4
0.5
© OECD/IEA - 2009
0.0
World China Russia Canada United Korea Brazil India OECD Japan Other
States
Europe
Savings potential (GJ/t cement)
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
Blast furnace slag
Energy savings potential (PJ/yr)
FOR INDUSTRY
3.0
Fly ash and other clinker substitutes
Iron and Steel Sector - BAT
Energy savings potential 2007
ENERGY
6,000
TECHNOLOGY
Efficiency power generation from BF gas
9.0
10.0
Increased BOF gas recovery
Blast furnace improvements
4,000
8.0
COG recovery
6.1
CDQ (or advanced wet quenching)
6.1
3,000
Specific savings potential (GJ/t steel)
5.3
6.0
4.7
2,000
4.1
3.7
3.6
4.0
2.1
1,000
0
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Switch from OHF to BOF
5,000
2.4
1.4
2.0
1.4
2.0
0.0
Saving potential (GJ/t steel)
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
Energy saving potential (PJ/yr)
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY
12.0
Steel finishing improvements
Technical Fuel and CO2 Savings
in Power Generation
ENERGY
35
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
30
FOR INDUSTRY
Fuel Savings
CO2 Savings
2.5
25
2.0
1.5
15
1.0
© OECD/IEA - 2009
10
5
0.5
0
0.0
Low High
Low High
Low High
Low High
India
World
India
World
Coal
Oil
Natural gas
Gt CO2
20
EJ
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
3.0
Towards Better Indicator Data
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
 IEA analysis focuses on trends and
improvement potentials
(technology analysis)
 Requires better information to
improve value for policy-making
 Continued effort to refine
indicators and improve the
dataset, based on national energy
data submissions, supplemented
by industry data
 Welcome the chance to work with
BEE and other Indian stakeholders
Global Cement – Key Findings
 Emissions in 2050 can be reduced by 18% compared to
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY




Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution

today with options <$200/tCO2
Efficiency essential to 2030
Alternative fuels and switching important
Limited improvements from clinker substitutes
CCS is key to long term, large reductions – demos
needed by 2015 with deployment from 2020
50% of all kilns would need to be equipped with CCS
by 2050
© OECD/IEA - 2009
BLUE low scenario
BLUE high scenario
India: Industrial CO2
Abatement Options
ENERGY
1600
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
1400
FOR INDUSTRY
1200
Emissions (Mt CO2)
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
Energy efficiency
(27%)
Fuel and feedstock
switching (29%)
1000
Recycling and energy
recovery (7%)
800
CCS (37%)
600
400
200
© OECD/IEA - 2009
Direct energy and process emissions only
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2007
0
Observations for India
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
 India will see high rates of industrial
production growth
 Both very efficient and less efficient
plants
 Significant small scale heavy industry
 Needs special attention
 Average energy intensity 5 – 50%
higher than best country
 Part of this is structural (scrap
availability, coal use etc.)
© OECD/IEA - 2009
 Need to resolve outstanding data
issues
Proposed Next Steps in India
Analysis
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
 Look further into data issues
 Further refine appropriate
FOR INDUSTRY
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution


© OECD/IEA - 2009


indicators for industry
Assess capital stock age and size
distribution
Improve future scenarios, incl.
improvement potentials (new
technology, technology transfer)
Better assess costs of energy
efficiency improvements (retrofit
and new plants)
Enhance co-operation with a range
of stakeholders
ENERGY
TECHNOLOGY
TRANSITIONS
FOR INDUSTRY
Strategies for the
Next Industrial
Revolution
Thank You
© OECD/IEA - 2009
[email protected]
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