Transcript שקופית 1 - huji.ac.il

Part 4
The PIC Model:
Supporting Evidence
or: Does it really work?
Itamar Gati
The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Evaluating Prescriptive Decision
Models

Descriptive models are evaluated by their
empirical validity

Normative models by their theoretical
adequacy

Prescriptive models are evaluated by their
pragmatic value – their ability to facilitate
individuals' decision-making
2
Evaluating Prescriptive Decision
Models


The basic assumption: the right process
increases the probability of choosing the best
option
The evaluation of the model should examine:
 Does
the model improve individuals' decision-making
processes?
 Does it lead to greater occupational satisfaction in the
future?
 Do individuals generalize the model and apply it to
future career decisions?
3
Prescreening Based on Elimination:
Descriptive Validity (Gati & Tikotzki,1989)

The monitored dialogues of 384 career
counselees with a computer-assisted career
information system were analyzed.

Results: most users (96%) employed a noncompensatory strategy during all or at least a
part of the dialogue: many options considered at
a previous stage of the dialogue were not
considered at the following stage, showing that
individuals tend to use a prescreening strategy
based on eliminating alternatives
4
Criteria for Testing the Benefits of
Making Better Career Decisions

Examine users' perceptions of MBCD

Examine changes in user’s degree of
decidedness

Examine perceived benefits

Locate factors that contribute to these
variables
5
Study 1 –
Gati, Kleiman, Saka, & Zakai (2003)
Method - Participants


247 males and 465 females who filled out both a
pre-dialogue and a post-dialogue questionnaire
Mean age 22.8; mean years of education 12.6
 10%
high-school students and graduates
 58% young adults (recently discharged)
 9% considering an alternative to their current major
 3% college graduates deliberating a job choice
 20% considering a career transition and other
6
Method - Instruments

"Future Directions"- Israeli website (in Hebrew)

Pre-dialogue questionnaire (prerequisite to
accessing the system)

MBCD - Making Better Career Decisions (mean
dialogue time = 40 minutes, SD=25)

Post-dialogue questionnaire
7
Mean Perceived Benefit (MPB) and Willingness to
Recommend (WR) the Use of MBCD to a Friend (%)
as a Function of the Difference in Decidedness after the
Dialogue of MBCD (N=712)
Decidedness
Increased
No change
Decreased
355
(50%)
266
(37%)
91
(13%)
MPB
3.12
2.57
2.52
WR%
93.5
74.8
72.5
Measure
Frequency
8
Frequencies of Degree of Decidedness
Before and after the Dialogue with MBCD
Decidedness Before the Dialogue
Decidedness
After the Dialogue
1
2
3
4
5
1- no direction
34
7
6
7
0
2 - only a general
direction
41
66
15
9
5
3 - Client is considering a
few specific alternatives
27
58
84
30
6
4 - would like to examine
additional alternatives
23
51
35
54
6
5 - would like to collect
information about a
specific occupation
6 - sure which
occupation to choose
9
20
21
41
28
3
0
1
9
16
9
Willingness to Recommend (WR) the Use of MBCD to a friend as a
Function of the Degree of Decidedness Before and After the Dialogue
with MBCD (N=712)
Decidedness Before the
Dialogue with MBCD
Decidedness After MBCD
1
2
3
4
5
1- no direction
38
14
17
29
--
2 - only a general direction
85
73
67
67
100
3 - considering a few
specific alternatives
4 - client would like to examine
additional alternatives
5 - would like to collect information
about a specific occupation
100
93
82
97
100
100
92
100
82
100
100
85
90
98
89
6 - Client is sure which
occupation to choose
100
--
100
100
81
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Taxonomy of Career Decision-Making
Difficulties (CDDQ; Gati, Krausz, & Osipow, 1996)
During the Process
Prior to Engaging
in the Process
Lack of Readiness
due to
Lack of
Indecimotivation siveness
Lack of Information
about
Dysfunc- Cdm Self Occupations
tional process
beliefs
Ways of
obtaining
info.
Inconsistent
Information due to
Unreliable
Info.
Internal
conflicts
External
conflicts
11
12
MBCD’s Effect (d, Cohen, 1992) on Reducing
Career Decision-Making Difficulties
(Gati, Saka, & Krausz, 2003)
0.8
0.72
0.65
d
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.31
0.3
0.2
0.11
0.1
0
Lack of
Readiness
Lack of
Information
Inconsistent
Information
Total CDDQ
13
Perceived Suitability of the "Promising Alternatives" List
(N=
)
%
%
too long
%
%
%
suitable
%
%
%
too short
%
%
%
(n=
)
(n= )
(n=
) (n=
) (n=
)
(n=
)
(n= )
(n= )
+
(n=
)
Number of Alternatives (n - of users)
14
Predictive Validity of MBCD
(Gati, Gadassi, & Shemesh, 2006)

Design: Comparing the Occupational
Choice Satisfaction (OCS) of two groups:

those whose chosen occupation was
included in MBCD’s recommended list

those whose chosen occupation was not
included in MBCD’s recommended list
15
Method - Participants
 The original sample included 123 clients who
used MBCD in 1997, as part of their counseling
at the Hadassah Career-Counseling Institute

Out of the 73 that were located after six+ years,
70 agreed to participate in the follow-up:
44 women (64%) and 26 men (36%),
aged 23 to 51 (mean = 28.4, SD = 5.03)
16
Method

Instruments
 MBCD
 Questionnaire:
clients were asked to report
their field of studies, their satisfaction with
their occupational choice (scale of 1 – 9):
“low” (1-4), “moderate” (5-7), “high” (8-9)

Procedure

the located clients were interviewed by
phone, six+ years after visiting the careercounseling center
17
Results
Frequencies of Occupational Choice Satisfaction
by Acceptance and Rejection of MBCD's
Recommendations, Based on Sequential Elimination
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
16%
18%
low satisfaction
44%
medium satisfaction
high satisfaction
84%
38%
accepted
did not accept
recommendations
recommendations
18
Conclusions

Accepting the recommendations of the
sequential-elimination-based search of MBCD
produces the best outcomes (i.e., highest levels
of satisfactions with the occupation)

The data does not support the effectiveness of
the compensatory-based search

The data does not support any advantage of
using the conjunction list over using only the
sequential-elimination-search list
19
Alternative Explanations
Differences in the lengths of the lists

No difference was found in the OCS between
clients whose list included 15 or fewer
occupations and clients whose list included
more than 15 occupations.

Therefore, this explanation can be ruled out.
20
Alternative Explanations (cont.)
Clients who accepted MBCD’s
recommendations are more compliant,
and therefore more inclined to report a
high level of satisfaction.


However, following the compensatory-modelbased recommendations did not contribute to
the OCS.
Therefore, this explanation can be ruled out too.
21
Conclusion

Following the recommendations of the
sequential-elimination-based search of
MBCD produces the best outcome
22
Gender Differences in Directly and
Indirectly Elicited Career-Related
Preferences (Gadassi & Gati, 2009)

Method

Participants: 226 females (74.1%) and 79
males (25.9%) who entered the Future
Directions Internet site
Age: 17-30, mean=22.84 (median = 22, SD = 3.34)
 Years of education: mean=12.67 (median 12, SD =
1.48)

23
Instruments
Future Directions (http://www.kivunim.com)
 Making Better Career Decisions (MBCD,

http://mbcd.intocareers.org)

The preference questionnaire: this
questionnaire imitated the preference elicitation
in MBCD
Participants were presented with 31 aspects,
and were asked to rank-order them according to
importance, and to report their preferences in all
31 aspects
24
Preliminary analysis



Two lists of occupations were compared:
We used MBCD to generate the
recommended list of occupations based
on the individual’s preferences in the
career aspects (the “elimination” list)
We compared the “elimination list” with
the “explicit list” – individuals were asked
to freely declare a list of occupations
suited for them.
25
Preliminary analysis

Determining the degree of gender-ratings of
occupations was based on the judgments of 10
undergraduate students.
– “most (that is, over 80%) of the individuals who
work in this occupation are women”
 5 – “most (that is, over 80%) of the individuals who
work in this occupation are men – over 80%"
 The inter-judge reliability was .96
1
We computed the mean gender-ratings of the lists of
occupations for each participants
26
Gender Differences in Directly and Indirectly Elicited
Preferred Occupations (Gadassi & Gati, 2009)
Means of the Femininity-Masculinity Ratings According to
Type of List and Gender
3.18
3.13
2.96
Men
Women
2.71
Elimination
3.3
3.2
3.1
3
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.4
Explicit
27
MBCD - Summary of Major Findings

Most users reported progress in the career
decision-making process

Satisfaction was also reported among
those who did not progress in the process

Users are “goal-directed” – the closer they
are to making a decision, the more satisfied
they are with the MBCD
28
MBCD - Summary of Major Findings

Using MBCD contributed to a decrease in
career decision-making difficulties related to
a lack of information

Using MBCD can contribute to decrease in
the gender-bias of career choices

Following the MBCD’s advice doubled the
probability of high occupational choice
satisfaction 6 years later
29
Summary of PIC

Career counseling may be viewed as decision
counseling, which aims at promoting making
better career decisions

The PIC model facilitates the complex process
of career choice by separating it into a sequence
of well-defined tasks

MBCD is a unique combination of career
information system, expert system, and a
decision-support system based on the PIC
rationale
30
Summary of PIC (cont.)
The use of the PIC model and MBCD
contributes to: progress in the decision
process, reduction in decision-making
difficulties, reduction of gender (and
possibly other) stereotypes, and higher
occupational satisfaction in the future
 PIC and MBCD can be incorporated into
career-counseling interventions

31
WWW.CDDQ.ORG
[email protected]
32
END
• sofsof
33
MBCD’s Effect on Reducing
Career Decision-Making Difficulties (d, Cohen, 1992)
Scale
d
Lack of Readiness
Motivation
General indecisiveness
Dysfunctional Beliefs
.31
.13
.29
.16
Lack of Information About
The Process
The Self
Occupational Alternatives
Additional Sources
.72
.48
.45
.78
.20
Inconsistent Information
Unreliable Information
Internal Conflicts
External Conflicts
Total CDDQ
.11
.18
.01
-.13
.65
34
Monitoring the Dialogue
Evaluating the input •
The 3 facets of preferences (relative importance of –
aspect, optimal level, willingness to compromise)
Crystallization of preferences (differentiation, –
consistency, coherence)
Evaluating the process •
Which options were used and in what order (almost –
compatible, additional search, why not? what if?
Compare occupations, similar occupations)
Evaluating the outcome (list of career •
alternatives)
The number of alternatives on the list –
The similarity among the alternatives on the list –
35