Transcript Simulating Regional Hydrologic Responses for Ungaged

Lake Superior Decision Support Systems:
GIS Databases and Decision Support Systems for
Land use Planning
George Host
Lucinda Johnson
Carl Richards
Natural Resources Research Institute
University of Minnesota - Duluth
Patrick Collins
MN Dept. of Natural Resources
Mike Koutnik
ESRI
Lake Superior Basin - Economy
• Forestry and forest products industries dominate the
Lake Superior basin's economy.
• Demand for tourism and leisure activities is
replacing mining and other previous contributors to
the region's economy, with an associated increase in
development to leverage this demand.
• The basin is highly multi-jurisdictional
• 2 Federal governments
• 3 States
• ~15 counties
• Many townships
• Numerous tribal governments
Lake Superior Basin - Ecology
• The Basin is a unique harbor of biodiversity on a
world-wide basis, with the greatest biodiversity is
concentrated along coastal shores and wetlands.
• The Basin's natural resources are increasingly in
conflict with both forestry and development. And
increasingly, the three are in conflict at a given place
simultaneously.
Objectives of LSDSS
• To provide users with data
and tools they can apply to
local land and resource
decisions.
• Provide a context for local
decisions that results in
long-term sustainability and
stewardship across the
basin.
Objectives - Data
• Develop seamless,
meso-scale GIS layers
of the Lake Superior
Basin
• Provide for delivery
of data and metadata
via the Internet and
CD-ROMs
Objectives - Tools
• Develop and test decision
support tools for local
decision makers for land
use issues.
• Develop and deploy
interpretive kiosks with
Lake Superior geographic
information for use by
residents and visitors to the
Lake Superior Basin.
Expected Results
• GIS applications and databases
will provide for
• analysis, assessment and policy
development at local and regional
scales
Expected Results
• GIS applications and databases
will provide for
• analysis, assessment and policy
development at local and regional
scales
• simultaneous consideration of
ecological, economic, and social
aspects
Expected Results
• GIS applications and databases will
provide for
• analysis, assessment and policy
development at local and regional
scales
• simultaneous consideration of
ecological, economic, and social aspects
• prediction of future conditions, based
on computer models and extrapolation
of current trends
Spatial Data Issues
• Data sources, metadata
quality, classification systems,
and resolution differ across
state and national boundaries
• seamless maps are often
difficult to construct
Spatial Data Issues
• Accessibility differs by data set
• WI wetland inventory and many
Canadian data sets are funded
by cost-recovery mechanisms
• Many data sets require
restrictive licensing agreements
• Distribution policies not wellestablished
Database Catalog – Physical features
• Geology
• Bathymetry
• Elevation
• Watershed
Boundaries
• Climate
Database Catalog – Vegetation Layers
• Presettlement
Vegetation
• Contemporary
Land Cover
• Wetland Inventory
• Forest Cover
• Detailed Landsat
classification
• Forest Inventory
• FIA data points
Database Catalog – Ecological Layers
• Soils
• Hydrography
• Ecological Classification
• Natural Areas
• Protected areas
• (SNAs etc)
• Critical habitats
Database Catalog – Social Layers
• Political boundaries
• Transportation
• Census
• Land Ownership
City Lights:
Time-integrated
Irradiance
(Defense Meteorological
Satellite Program)
Integration of GIS and
Decision Support Tools
• We want to predict the consequences of land use
decisions
• Allow “What-if” scenarios with map outputs
• Provide estimates of the confidence of these predictions
• Platform: Ecosystem Management Decision Support
(EMDS) system
• Integrates ARCVIEW GIS with the Netweaver knowledgebase and inference engine
http://www.fsl.orst.edu/emds
GIS-based Decision Support for
White Pine Management
• White Pine affected by:
• Climate
• Regional & Microclimate
GIS-based Decision Support for
White Pine Management
• White Pine affected by
• Climate
• Topography
• Slope and Aspect
GIS-based Decision Support for
White Pine Management
• White Pine affected by
• Climate
• Topography
• Slope and Aspect
• Distance to Water
• Blister rust incidence
GIS-based Decision Support for
White Pine Management
• The Decision Support
System needs to integrate
the different spatial layers to
predict site suitability across
the landscape
• Boolean (And/Or) Logic
• Fuzzy Logic
• The inputs and outputs for
the decision model are
geographic data layers
Lake Superior Pilot Projects
• Prototype studies that integrate geographic
information with models or decision support tools
to address a local issue.
• Designed to identify the datasets, analytical
techniques, educational efforts, and institutional
arrangements required to facilitate practical
locally-based land-use planning.
Pilot Project I - Miller Creek
• Issue: Stormwater
management in an
urban stream
• Designated trout
stream
• Intensive mall
development in
watershed
Miller Creek Stormwater Modeling
• Use EPA SWMM
model to:
• Simulate hydrology
• Identify runoff
quantity and quality
problems
• Identify data gaps
Miller Creek Hydrograph
Predicted and observed discharge from middle reach of Miller Creek.
Miller Creek
• develop “what if”
scenarios to
identify
subwatersheds
sensitive to
development
Comparison of hydrographs above and below mall
development area on Miller Creek.
Pilot Project II – Landuse planning in
northern Wisconsin
• Create a CD-ROM based educational tool for local
(township/county) planners and citizen groups
• Includes:
• geographic data specific to the region
• procedures involved in the planning process
• examples of ordinance language
Pilot Project II – Landuse planning
in northern Wisconsin
Land Use Planning Issues & Concerns
• Timber management practices
• Erosion and sediment control
• Conservation/preservation of wetlands
• Tax assessment of wetlands and wildlife areas
• Loss of agricultural land to other uses
• Urban sprawl
• Maintaining a rural character and quality of life
Land Use Planning CD
• Spatial data
• land use
• transportation
• rivers and lakes
• natural features
• political boundaries
• Etc.
Land Use Planning CD
• Planning tools
• example surveys
• ordinances language
• zoning policies
• Development/preservation strategies
• Other legal instruments that a local
government could tailor to its needs
Land Use Planning CD
• Landscape graphics : air photo or line drawing
examples of different scenarios
• illustrating housing density and patterns
(clustered or dispersed)
• riparian buffers
• Intent – show future landscape might look like
under particular management strategies
Lake Superior Decision Support Systems
is funded by the
US EPA Coastal Environmental
Management Program through the
MN Dept of Natural Resources
www.nrri.umn.edu/lsgis