Transcript Power - The McIlvaine Company

Power
Speech by Bob McIlvaine
Valve World Expo
McIlvaine Company
Northfield, IL
June 25 2013
Power Valve Revenues $ millions-type
Subject
Total
Ball
Butterfly
Check
Gate
Globe
Industrial Plug
Other
Safety Relief
2017
9,508
1,342
1,604
108
2,369
2,606
388
431
660
Power Valve Revenues $millionsregion
World Region
Total
Africa
CIS
East Asia
Eastern Europe
Middle East
NAFTA
South & Central America
West Asia
Western Europe
2017
9,508
265
340
4,310
329
271
1,402
135
1,635
820
East Asia Power Valve Revenues $
millions-type
Subject
Total
Ball
Butterfly
Check
Gate
Globe
Industrial Plug
Other
Safety Relief
2017
4,310
608
727
49
1,074
1,181
176
195
299
East Asia Power Valve Revenues $
millions-country
Country
Total
Australia
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
Japan
Malaysia
New Zealand
Other East Asia
Philippines
Singapore
South Korea
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
2017
4,310
129
3,264
23
130
172
64
2
18
58
9
148
99
58
136
Many Routes to Clean Coal
• A combination of coal and biomass can be burned in an oxy
combustion system. All the gases (CO2) are sequestered and
used for enhanced oil recovery.
•
There are no emissions and there is a net reduction in the world’s CO2 in the
atmosphere for every unit of energy generated.
• If combustion takes place at the pressures experienced by
separating the oxygen from the air, there are multiple benefits
including total parasitic energy reduction.
• The co-location of sewage treatment plants and coal-fired
generators should be the wave of the future.
• Many of the old coal-fired power plants are located in areas
where there is a need to dispose of large quantities of
municipal solid waste. This waste can be gasified and used as
a reburn fuel in coal-fired boilers
• Rare earths can be extracted from flyash. Sulfuric acid,
hydrochloric acid, magnesium hydroxide and gypsum can all
be economically produced along with power
Huge coal fired retrofit and upgrade
market in the U.S. and Europe
•
Improving efficiency , reducing operating costs and meeting environmental
regulations will result in a huge retrofit and upgrade investment at coal fired
power plants in the U.S. and Europe.
Region
Europe
U. S
total
•
•
2013 installed MW
X 1000
380
310
690
2020 installed MW
X 1000
385
280
665
Despite the low cost of natural gas at present, DOE predicts the U.S. will burn
more coal in 2035 than at present. Coal consumption at European utilities is
up by substantially this year.
Coal is proving much more economical than alternatives in Europe. Therefore
there is a great incentive to burn coal cleanly and economically.
Power
(coal-fired supercritical)
•
•
•
Coal-fired power provides the largest market opportunity for valves, in terms of
total dollar spend per industry.
Power plants offer wide opportunities for valves because of the involvement of
water, steam, slurries, and chemicals.
The Total Investment Value (TIV) for an advanced (supercritical) coal-fired power
plant is in the range of $2.4-billion per plant.
Plant Type
Output
Output
Capacity per Capacity,
Plant
Unit of
Measure
Investment
Cost per
Unit of
Measure,
Mil $
Total Plant
Investment
Value (TIV),
Mil $
Total
Total
Valve
Valve
Spend per Spend Per
Plant, % Plant,
of TIV
Mil $
Valve Function
(% of Valves Per
Function)
Control
Power - PC/supercritical 800
MW
$3.040
$2,432
2.0%
$49
20.0%
Valve Spend Per Valve Type, % of Plant TIV
On/Off,
Isolation,
Bypass Ball
80.0%
1/4 Turn
Multi-Turn
Butterfly Plug
0.800% 0.200%
Gate
Press
Relief
Check
Globe Choke
0.020% 0.400% 0.500% 0.002% 0.040% 0.038%
9
2000 Industrial Boilers Will Spend Between $4 and
$12 Billion to Meet the New Industrial Boiler MACT
Rule
• In the next few months, operators of industrial boilers will have to decide
whether to gamble on low gas prices for the next two decades or add air
pollution control equipment to their existing systems.
– There are more than 10,000 industrial boilers in the U.S.
– Less than 2000 will fall under the criteria for action set up by the new Industrial Boiler
MACT rule
– Of these 2000 units, only 500 units will have to make major capital expenditures.
• A survey conducted by URS and funded by the Council of Industrial Boiler
owners found that to meet the new limits coal-fired boilers would have to
spend $5.6 billon. Liquid-fired units would have to spend $5.2 billion and
biomass and other units would spend $1.2 billion.
Nuclear Valve Types
• Valve types used in nuclear plants Nuclear power plants of either PWR or
BWR design include more than 5,000 valves per installation.
• The valve applications include safety, control, and isolation functions,
among others.
• More than 500 valves are classified as “safety” valves, with the balance
classified as “non-safety”.
• These valves reflect virtually all valve types and sizes including ball, gate,
globe, butterfly, check, plug, poppet, squib, and others.
• Valve sizes range from fractions of a gallon per minute for chemical feed
regulation to many thousands of gallons per minute for controlling reactor
cooling and condenser cooling.
Nuclear valve applications
• Valve applications are found in the “nuclear island” which includes the
reactor building, and in other locations in the “balance-of-plant” outside
the reactor building.
• In the US and other markets, valves within the nuclear island must
conform to stringent design, performance, and safety criteria established
by various bodies including the American Society of Mechanical Engineers
(ASME) and others.
• Other national and international regulatory bodies exist, and may be
operative for reactors built and installed outside the United States.
Valves in the Nuclear Island
• Major valve systems within the nuclear island, and specifically related to
the reactor coolant system include:
–
Pressurizer safety valves
– Automatic depressurization valves
– Pressurizer spray valves
– Backup cooling water valves
• These valve systems are often supplied in pre-fabricated skidded systems
to support standardization, reduce installation time and simplify piping.
Their main function is to ensure adequate cooling for the reactor under all
conditions.
• Each valve is critical to plant operation and safety.
Balance-of-Plant Valves
• Balance of plant valves are located outside the nuclear reactor
containment building and provide basic functions of safety, pressure relief,
control, and isolation for equipment in the water/steam systems. Major
valve systems include:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Main steam safety valves(MSSV)
Main steam isolation valves (MSIV)
Main steam relief valves
Turbine bypass valves
Feedwater pump control and recirculation valves
Heater drain valves
Condensate recirculation valves
De-aerator level control valves (DALC), and
General pump and tank isolation valves, among others
Power
(nuclear)
•
•
New nuclear construction is on hold or prohibited in major markets following the
Fukushima accident in Japan. Japan and major countries within Europe have a
moratorium on new nuclear builds, and in some cases are planning for early
retirement of existing nuclear plants. The Fukushima accident is a driver for
alternative electric utility fuel sources including natural gas, wind, and solar. The
number of new nuclear plants coming on line in the next several years will likely be
in the range of 7 to 10 at most, mainly in China, India, Russia, and Poland. There
were just (2) new nuclear startups in 2012.
The Total Investment Value (TIV) for a new nuclear power plant is in the range of
$6-billion per plant.
Plant Type
Output
Output
Capacity per Capacity,
Plant
Unit of
Measure
Investment
Cost per
Unit of
Measure,
Mil $
Total Plant
Investment
Value (TIV),
Mil $
Total
Total
Valve
Valve
Spend per Spend Per
Plant, % Plant,
of TIV
Mil $
Valve Function
(% of Valves Per
Function)
Control
Power - nuclear
1,125
MW
$5.335
$6,002
1.2%
$72
20.0%
Valve Spend Per Valve Type, % of Plant TIV
On/Off,
Isolation,
Bypass Ball
80.0%
1/4 Turn
Multi-Turn
Butterfly Plug
0.480% 0.120%
Gate
Press
Relief
Check
Globe Choke
0.012% 0.240% 0.300% 0.001% 0.024% 0.023%
15
Power
(combined cycle gas turbine, CCGT)
•
•
Natural gas combined cycle power generation is growing. Major drivers include
efficiencies beyond 60% for the latest generation plants, record low prices and
record high availability for natural gas fuel, and short construction cycles. The
rapid ramp up/ramp down capabilities for gas turbines also make this power
source an ideal backup for intermittent renewable energy systems based on wind
or solar power. Sizes are available to meet peak and base-load requirements.
The Total Investment Value (TIV) for CCGT systems is in the range of $750-million
for a 600 MW plant, but will vary substantially based on plant MW rating which
can cover a wide range depending on the number of gas turbines and heat
recovery steam generators (HRSGs).
Plant Type
Output
Output
Capacity per Capacity,
Plant
Unit of
Measure
Investment
Cost per
Unit of
Measure,
Mil $
Total Plant
Investment
Value (TIV),
Mil $
Total
Total
Valve
Valve
Spend per Spend Per
Plant, % Plant,
of TIV
Mil $
Valve Function
(% of Valves Per
Function)
Control
Power - CCGT
615
MW
$1.230
$756
2.0%
$15
20.0%
Valve Spend Per Valve Type, % of Plant TIV
On/Off,
Isolation,
Bypass Ball
80.0%
1/4 Turn
Multi-Turn
Butterfly Plug
0.800% 0.300%
Gate
Press
Relief
Check
Globe Choke
0.020% 0.400% 0.400% 0.002% 0.040% 0.038%
16
Power
(simple cycle gas turbine)
•
•
The simple cycle gas turbine (without heat recovery steam generation) is widely
applied for peaking power applications.
The Total Investment Value (TIV) for a simple cycle gas turbine system is in the
range of $150-million per plant.
Plant Type
Output
Output
Capacity per Capacity,
Plant
Unit of
Measure
Investment
Cost per
Unit of
Measure,
Mil $
Total Plant
Investment
Value (TIV),
Mil $
Total
Total
Valve
Valve
Spend per Spend Per
Plant, % Plant,
of TIV
Mil $
Valve Function
(% of Valves Per
Function)
Control
Power - GT
210
MW
$0.651
$137
1.5%
$2
20.0%
Valve Spend Per Valve Type, % of Plant TIV
On/Off,
Isolation,
Bypass Ball
80.0%
1/4 Turn
Multi-Turn
Butterfly Plug
0.300% 0.600%
Gate
Press
Relief
Check
Globe Choke
0.008% 0.240% 0.315% 0.002% 0.008% 0.029%
17