Transcript Document
5th Annual Dry Bulk Shipping Market Outlook Conference, 9th and 10th September 2008, Crown Plaza London Maritime Transportation from CIS Countries Vitaliy Smilyk Head of Maritime Research Department, Metal Expert Metal Expert in brief: • Part of Information agency Metal Courier established in 1994 • Reliable source of information on global steel and raw materials markets • Provider of daily news, weekly reviews, monthly analytical bulletins, quarterly forecasts, special reports and consulting services • Organizer of several international steel and raw materials and transportation conferences • Offices in Dnipropetrovsk (Ukraine), (Russia), and Houston (Texas, USA) Moscow Report`s structure: 1. 2. 3. 4. Main cargoes handled in ports of CIS and Baltic States Largest cargo owners of Russia and Ukraine and ports they work with Major destinations of Russian and Ukrainian exports Freight markets of the CIS and Baltic countries Part 1 Main cargoes handled in ports of CIS and Baltic States - coal (83mt); steel (57mt); fertilizers (38mt); grain (25mt); iron ore (18mt); timber (16.5mt); construction cargoes (10.5mt incl. 5mt of clay); - scrap (9mt); pig iron (7mt); sulphur (6.5-7mt); nonferrous metal ores (5mt); nonferrous metals (4mt); sugar (4mt – import and export); coke (1mt) Demand for vessels for cargo transportation from CIS Coal Baltic Sea ports – 31.5mt Azov and Black Sea ports – 21.8mt Far East ports – 18.3mt Northern ports – 11.2mt Steel Azov and Black Sea ports – 38mt Baltic Sea ports – 8.3mt Caspian Sea ports – 5.5mt Far East ports – 4.8mt Fertilizers Baltic Sea ports – 20mt Azov and Black Sea ports – 14mt Northern ports – 2.8mt Far East ports – 1mt Grains Traditionally, main volumes of grain cargoes are shipped from Azov and Black Sea ports (20mt in 2007). Ports of Baltic Sea basin worked 6.1mt. Iron ore Ports of Black Seas handled 17mt of iron ore in 2007, while Baltic and Northern ports – only 1mt. Kovdor GOK is boosting iron ore transportation through Murmansk; above 1mt will be shipped from this port in 2008. Timber Baltic Sea ports – 7.8mt Far East ports – 4.5mt Northern and Caspian ports – 0.5mt each Construction cargoes (including clay) Azov and Black Sea ports – 8.5mt Baltic Sea ports – 2mt Scrap Last year, CIS and Baltic ports handled some 9mt of scrap: Baltic Sea ports – above 4mt; Azov and Black Sea ports – some 3-4mt; Far Eastern ports – 1mt. Pig iron Azov and Black Sea ports – 4.7mt Far East ports – 1.1mt Baltic Sea ports – 1mt Sulphur Main volumes of sulphur exported from CIS are handled in Azov and Black Sea ports – 6.5mt out of total 7mt. Nonferrous metal ores Azov and Black Sea ports – 3mt Far East ports – 1mt Nonferrous metal Baltic Sea ports – 1.7mt Azov and Black Sea ports – 1.5mt Far East ports – 0.8mt Sugar Ports of CIS and Baltic States handled above 4mt of sugar (incl. export and import). Main volumes were shipped from Azov and Black Sea ports (3.5mt). Summary 1 part Largest ports of CIS and the Baltics handling coal: Vostochny Port – 16mt Murmansk SMP – 11.2mt Riga Free Port – 10.5mt Rosterminalugol (Ust-Luga) – 6mt Yuzhny SMP – 4mt Tallinn Port – 3.7mt Mariupol SMP – 3.7mt Largest ports of CIS and the Baltics handling steel: Mariupol SMP – 8.4mt Odessa SMP – 5.8mt Novorossiysk Sea Merchant Port (SMP) – 5.3mt Port of Saint Petersburg – 4.3mt Nakhodka SMP – 3.6mt Illyichevsk SMP – 3.3mt Astrakhan Ports – 3.2mt Largest ports of CIS and the Baltics handling fertilizers: Port of Saint Petersburg – 6.5mt Klaipeda State Sea Port – 5.3mt Yuzhny SMP – 3.6mt Ventspils Free Port – 3.3mt Transinvestservice (Yuzhny SMP) – 2.1mt Murmansk SMP – 2.1mt Largest ports of CIS and the Baltics handling grain: Novorossiysk Sea Merchant Port (SMP) – 6mt Rostov Port– 2.4mt Odessa SMP – 2.2mt Transinvestservice (Yuzhny SMP) – 1.7mt Special Economic Zone Liepaya– 1.2mt Klaipeda State Sea Port – 1.2mt Azov Sea Port (SP) – 1.1mt Kherson SMP – 1mt Largest ports of CIS and the Baltics handling iron ore: Yuzhny SMP – 4.5mt Izmail SMP – 3.1mt Illyichevsk SMP – 2.7mt TIS-Ruda (Yuzhny SMP) – 1.2mt Largest ports of CIS and the Baltics handling timber: Riga Free Port – 3mt Khabarovsk Territory Ports – 2.8mt Port of Saint Petersburg – 2.5mt Novorosleseksport – 2mt Largest ports of CIS and the Baltics handling construction cargoes: Mariupol SMP – 3.3mt (clay) Kherson SMP – 1.7mt Feodosiya SMP – 1mt (clay) Klaipeda State Sea Port – 1mt Largest ports of CIS and the Baltics handling scrap: Port of Saint Petersburg – 2.5mt Rostov Port -1mt Esteve (Tallinn) – 0.7mt Klaipeda State Sea Port – 0.6mt Largest ports of CIS and the Baltics handling pig iron: Yuzhny SMP – 1.8mt Nakhodka SMP – 1mt Odessa SMP – 0.6mt Kaliningrad Sea Fishing Port – 0.6mt Largest ports of CIS and the Baltics handling sulphur: Buzan-port – 1.9mt Kerch SMP (roads) – 1.6mt Mariupol SMP – 1.1mt Ust-Donetsk SMP – 1mt Part 2 Largest cargo owners of Russia and Ukraine and ports they work with Russia’s exporters Coal Shipper SUEK Port Murmansk SMP Vostochny Port Riga Free Port Port of Saint Petersburg Vysotsk Port Ventspils Free Port Tallinn Port Azov Sea Port Change y-o-y (07/06) 7.4% 15.3% 15.4% -36.3% 2007 21 964.5 8 480.2 5 834.7 1 870.1 2006 20 452.6 7 356.2 5 058.0 2 935.8 1 645.9 1 205.2 906.4 890.3 81.6% 35.4% 1 142.2 719.3 662 1 052.4 1 392.4 230.1 8.5% -48.3% 187.8% Russia’s exporters Coal Kuzbassrazrezugol Riga Free Port Vostochny Port Ust-Luga SMP Tuapse SMP Ventspils Free Port Yuzhny SMP Tallinn Port 18 001.6 4 975.2 3 091.6 2 986.1 2 196.0 18 276.0 4 291.6 3 511.8 1 196.8 3 043.5 -2% 16% -12% 150% -28% 1 162.4 1 586.8 1 174.1 387.8 2 181.9 2 456.5 200% -27% -52% Ukraine’s exporters Coal Shipper Sverdlovantratsyt Port Nikolayev SMP Mariupol SMP Berdyansk SMP 2007 1 284.1 511.6 409.7 312.3 2006 1 263.8 379.2 543.2 248.3 Change y-o-y (07/06) 2% 35% -25% 26% Russia’s exporters Steel semi products Shipper NLMK Port Novorossiysk SMP Tuapse SMP Port of Saint Petersburg 2007 2006 3 673.2 1 358.8 1 184.5 914 3 849.3 1 266.0 1 875.2 640 Change y-o-y (07/06) -5% 7% -37% 43% Russia’s exporters Steel semi products Shipper ZSMK Port Nakhodka SMP 2007 1 677.7 1 485.1 2006 Change y-o-y (07/06) 2 996.3 -44% 2 222.7 -33% Russia’s exporters Steel semi products Shipper NTMK Port Novorossiysk SMP Nakhodka SMP 2007 1 634.2 662.4 467.4 2006 Change y-o-y (07/06) 1 813.5 -10% 880.7 -25% 440.5 6% Ukraine’s exporters Steel semi products Shipper Azovstal Port Mariupol SMP 2007 2 563.3 2 117.2 2006 2 745.1 2 202.1 Change y-o-y (07/06) -6.60% -3.90% Ukraine’s exporters Steel semi products Shipper Yenakievo Port Mariupol SMP 2007 2 208.7 1 664.2 2006 2 009.9 1 782.9 Change y-o-y (07/06) 9.90% -6.70% Russia’s exporters Finished steel products Shipper MMK Port Novorossiysk SMP Eisk Port Astrakhan Ports 2007 3 905.0 1 775.8 1 055.6 648.7 2006 4 955.2 2 194.5 1 076.2 486 Change y-o-y (07/06) -21% -19% -2% 34% Russia’s exporters Finished steel products Shipper NLMK Port Novorossiysk SMP Kaliningrad SMP 2007 1 487.3 815.6 517.1 2006 1 375.2 688.8 536.9 Change y-o-y (07/06) 8% 18% -4% Ukraine’s exporters Finished steel products Shipper ArcelorMittal Kryviy Rih Port 2007 2006 Oktyabrsk SMP Odessa SMP 3 618 1 521 1 238 3 730 845 1 249 Change y-o-y (07/06) -3% 80% -1% Ukraine’s exporters Finished steel products Shipper Ilyich Port Mariupol SMP Illyichevsk SMP 2007 2 743 871.5 720.4 2006 2 531.9 532.5 702.7 Change y-o-y (07/06) 8% 64% 3% Russia’s exporters Fertilizers Shipper Uralkali Shipper Silvinit Port 2007 3 250.4 2006 2 252.7 Port of Saint Petersburg 3 247.3 2 215.1 2007 2006 2 275.3 613.6 1 144.4 404.8 Port Ventspils Free Port NiKaTera (Nikolaev) East Urals Terminal 2 199.3 822.1 815.7 405.2 Change y-o-y (07/06) 44% 47% Change y-o-y (07/06) -3% 34% -29% 0% Ukraine’s exporters Fertilizers Shipper Azot (Cherkassy) Yuzhny SMP Transinvestservis 2007 1 346.2 882.4 381.7 2006 961.7 722.4 229.4 Change y-o-y (07/06) 40% 22% 66% Yuzhny SMP NiKaTera 1 109.8 838.3 237.5 1 182.2 746.6 180.9 -6% 12% 31% Port Stirol Russia’s exporters Iron ore Shipper Mikhaylovsky GOK Yuzhny SMP 2007 3 342.4 2 594.0 2006 2 385.3 691 Change y-o-y (07/06) 40% 275% Yuzhny SMP Odessa SMP Riga Free Port Nakhodka SMP 1 597.0 347.7 347.2 274.8 213.9 2 500.1 734.1 60 104.6 12.1 -36% -53% 479% 163% 1674% Port Lebedinsky GOK Ukraine’s exporters Iron ore Shipper Poltavsky GOK Port 2007 3 708.2 2 419.3 785.3 459.4 Izmail SMP Yuzhny SMP Transinvestservis Severny GOK Illyichevsk SMP Nikolaev SMP Odessa SMP Yuzhny SMP 1 038.6 325.2 231 151.1 134.7 2006 3 989.2 2 234.7 1 474.0 0 625.1 141 48.2 70.7 0 Change y-o-y (07/06) -7% 8% -47% - 66.2% 130.7% 379.4% 113.7% - Russia’s exporters Pig iron Shipper Tulachermet Port Yuzhny SMP Kaliningrad SMP Illyichevsk SMP Port of Saint Petersburg 2007 2 450.7 1 273.4 314.9 234.7 2006 2 586.2 1 672.3 292.7 02.апр Change y-o-y (07/06) -5.2% -23.9% 7.6% 9781% 212.2 166.3 27.6% Ukraine’s exporters Pig iron Shipper Donetskstal Port Odessa SMP Berdyansk SMP Mariupol SMP Makeevka Illyichevsk SMP Mariupol SMP 2007 2006 508.9 251.3 148.7 108.9 508.4 353 90.1 306.7 30.апр 46 209 185.1 7 65 Change y-o-y (07/06) 66% 727% 223% -48% 175% 4876% 39% Russia’s largest grain exporters in 2006-2007 Company International Grain Company (Moscow) Yugtranzitservice (Taganrog) Rosinteragroservise Agromarket-Trade Cargill Yug Aston Yug Rusi Louis Dreyfus Vostok Lada-Gelendjik-Trans Bunge CIS Krasnodarzerno-Produkt-Expo Volume, tonnes 2,281,726 1,158,777 1,109,792 889,483 570,153 568,149 527,115 408,102 345,697 336,067 269,582 Ukraine`s largest grain exporters in 2006-2007 Company Toepfer Nibulon Trading b.v. Glencore Cargill W.J. Grain Bunge Louis Dreyfus Negoce Volume, tonnes 1,390,151 1,313,925 1,312,643 965,565 818,321 813,481 782,318 Part 3 Major destinations of Russian and Ukrainian exports Russian coal exports in 2007 Destination country UK Turkey Japan Ukraine S.Korea Finland Netherlands Poland Germany Romania Belgium Slovakia Spain Taiwan ‘000 tonnes 15153 11378 10945 10806 7018 5318 4598 3066 2877 2146 2045 1991 1611 1163 Ukrainian coal exports in 2007 Destination country Bulgaria Turkey Moldova Spain Italy ‘000 tonnes 1'200 570 230 180 180 Russian steel semis exports in 2007 Destination country Iran Italy Turkey China Denmark USA Taiwan ‘000 tonnes 2611 2149 1677 1449 977 952 604 Russian finished product exports in 2007 Destination country Iran Turkey Italy Ukraine Kazakhstan Germany India ‘000 tonnes 1852 1837 1362 1215 1161 1124 514 Ukrainian steel semis exports in 2007 Destination country Italy Turkey Indonesia USA Egypt Syria ‘000 tonnes 2358 1420 968 914 762 447 Ukrainian finished product exports in 2007 Destination country Russia Turkey Syria Jordan Algeria UAE Belarus India Iran ‘000 tonnes 2700 2420 1140 564 545 528 507 500 492 Russian fertilizers exports in 2007 Destination country China Brazil Turkey India Mexico Peru Ukraine Pakistan Poland ‘000 tonnes 5115 3745 1350 866 700 663 580 500 500 Ukrainian fertilizers exports in 2007 Destination country Turkey Brazil India Mexico Nigeria ‘000 tonnes 1401 1027 561 261 200 Geography of Russian grain deliveries in 2006/07 MY Destination country India Egypt Bangladesh Saudi Arabia Italy Turkey ‘000 tonnes 2457 2422 1077 876 538 474 Geography of Ukrainian grain deliveries in 2006/07 MY Destination country Saudi Arabia Turkey Egypt Israel Spain Tunisie ‘000 tonnes 3458 846 753 643 547 458 Iron ore Ukraine and Russia – 11mt of iron ore to China Pig iron Russian - 2mt of pig iron to the USA Part 4 Freight markets of the CIS and Baltic countries Azov-Black Sea Basin Freight rates for 70,000-tonne shipment of iron ore concentrate from Yuzhny port to northern Chinese ports, $/t 90 2006 80 2007 70 2008 60 50 40 30 20 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Traffic handling cost of 70,000-tonne shipment of iron ore concentrate from Yuzhny Port to northern Chinese ports, $/t 15 14 13 12 2008 11 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Freight rates for 3,000-tonne shipment of steel scrap from Rostov-on-Don to Marmora Sea ports, $/t. 55 50 45 40 2006 2007 2008 35 30 25 20 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Traffic handling cost of 3,000-tonne shipment of steel scrap from Rostov-onDon to Marmora Sea ports, $/t 20 19 18 2008 17 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Freight rates for 3,000-tonne shipment of grain from Azov to Alexandria, $/t 90 80 2006 2007 2008 70 60 50 40 30 20 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Traffic handling costs of 3,000-tonne shipment of grain (Azov- Alexandria), $/t 18,5 18 17,5 17 16,5 16 2008 15,5 15 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Baltic and Northern Sea basin Freight rates for 70,000-tonne shipment of coal from Murmansk to Liverpool, $/t 40 35 30 25 20 2008 15 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Freight rates for 3,000-tonne shipment of steel products on route Saint Petersburg – eastern British ports, €/t 35 33 2006 2007 2008 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Handling cost of 3,000-tonne steel product shipment (Saint Petersburg – eastern British ports), €/t 17 16 15 14 2008 13 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Freight rates for 3,000-tonne steel scrap shipment (Saint Petersburg – northern Spanish ports), €/t 50 2006 2007 2008 45 40 35 30 25 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Handling cost for 3,000-tonne shipment of steel scrap shipment (Saint Petersburg – northern Spanish ports), €/t 21 20 19 18 17 2008 16 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec The Caspian Sea Freight rates for 3,000-tonne shipment of steel products from Astrakhan to Anzali, $/t 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 2006 2007 2008 20 15 10 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Traffic handling cost of 3,000-tonne shipment of steel products from Astrakhan to Anzali, $/t 15 14,5 14 13,5 2008 13 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Far Eastern basin Freight rates for 70,000-tonne shipment of coal from Vostochny to Japan, $/t 22 20 18 16 14 12 2008 10 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Freight rates for 3,000m3 shipment of plank timber from Nakhodka to the western ports of Japan, $/m3 22 20 18 16 14 12 2006 2007 2008 10 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Traffic handling costs of 3,000m3 shipment of plank timber from Nakhodka to the western ports of Japan, $/m3 10 9 8 2008 7 jan feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Conclusion Products - Raw materials (scrap, pig iron, DRI / HBI, iron ore, coal, coke, ferro-alloys) - Steel Semis (slab, billet, pipe billet) - Finished steel products (flats, longs, pipes) - Freight Market & industry news, analysis, statistics, price database Regions - Turkey - CIS (Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan) - Europe: South Europe (Italy, Spain), Central Europe (Poland, Romania, Czech, Slovakia), Balkans (Bulgaria, Serbia, Albania, Bosnia) - Middle East (Iran, UAE, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordan) & North Africa (Egypt, Algeria) - India - US - China - Southeast Asia (Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Singapore)