Transcript Project Specific modelling

CBA Results Files
Getting started
Getting started
We highly encourage you to
> Read the CBA Methodology:
 Annex F on Methodology of TYNDP 2015
http://www.entsog.eu/public/uploads/files/publications/TYNDP/2015/TYNDP022150316_Annex_F_lowres.pdf
 And ESW-CBA Methodology
http://www.entsog.eu/public/uploads/files/publications/CBA/2015/INV0175150213_Adapted_ESW-CBA_Methodology.pdf
> Read the TYNDP 2015
http://www.entsog.eu/publications/tyndp#ENTSOG-TEN-YEAR-NETWORKDEVELOPMENT-PLAN-2015
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Getting started
12 Result files for each Group of projects
> DISRUPTED RATE
> DISRUPTED QUANTITY
> REMAINING FLEXIBILITY
> INDICATORS
> MONETIZATION
Modelling results
> MARGINAL PRICE
> GPI
> FLOWS
> CO2 and demand
> IMPORT ROUTE DIV
Capacity-based indicators results
> N-1 ESW CBA
> Economic Template
Economic Template
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Getting started
Units of the files
Units
DISRUPTED RATE
% of country (or balancing zone* ) demand
daily basis
DISRUPTED QUANTITY
GWh/d
daily basis
REMAINING FLEXIBILITY
% of country (or balancing zone* ) demand
daily basis
INDICATORS
SSPDi = % of supply price diversification on country Gas Bill
yearly basis
SSPDe= % of supply price dependence of country Gas Bill
yearly basis
USSD/CSSD= % of country demand on yearly basis
yearly basis
MONETIZATION
EUR/d
daily basis
MARGINAL PRICE
EUR/GWh
GPI
EUR/GWh
FLOWS
GWh/d
daily basis
CO2 and demand
CO2= in tons
daily basis
demand= in GWh
daily basis
IMPORT ROUTE DIV
no unit (HHI index)
N-1
% of country demand
daily basis
Economic template
Bill components= 10^6 EUR/year
yearly basis
*: for country having more than 1 balancing zone
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Overview of Modelling results
ch
exp
ch
NO
exp
exp
exp
DZ transit
disruption
ch
AZ
exp
LY transit
disruption
ch
exp
_LNG
_RU
_NO
_DZ
_LY
_AZ
_LNG
_RU
_NO
_DZ
_LY
_AZ
Ukraine
TANAP
AZ transit
disruption
Green Stream
NO transit
disruption
ch
LY
Franpipe Langeled
RU transit
disruption
ch
DZ
Belarus
Normal
situation
(NONE)
RU
Transmed
LNG
DISRUPTED RATE
DISRUPTED QUANTITY
REMAINING FLEXIBILITY
MEG
Ref case
MONETIZATION
MARGINAL PRICE
GPI
INDICATORS:
USSD/CSSD
(supply dependence)
INDICATORS: SSPDe_
(price dependence)
INDICATORS: SSPDi_
(price diversification)
_LNG
_RU
_NO
_DZ
_LY
_AZ
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Files structure
Common File structure
for these Files and
Worksheets
Select country Country Code
YES
Country 1
YES
Country 2
YES
Country 3
YES
Country 4
YES
Country 5
YES
Country 6
YES
Country 7
YES
Country 8
YES
Country 9
YES
Country 10
YES
Country 11
YES
Country 12
YES
Country 13
YES
Country 14
YES
Country 15
YES
Country 16
YES
Country 17
YES
Country 18
YES
Country 19
YES
Country 20
YES
Country 21
YES
Country 22
YES
Country 23
YES
Country 24
YES
Country 25
YES
Country 26
YES
Country 27
YES
Country 28
YES
Country 29
YES
Country 30
YES
Country 31
Country 32
YES
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
C6
C7
C8
C9
C10
C11
C12
C13
C14
C15
C16
C17
C18
C19
C20
C21
C22
C23
C24
C25
C26
C27
C28
C29
C30
C31
C32
PROJECT IMPACT in FID
FID2 015 2 020 2 025 2 030 2 035 2 015
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Impact of the
Group
(=difference
between Final and
Initial Situations)
along the years
File
Worksheet
DISRUPTED RATE
START-END Values
DISRUPTED QUANTITY
START-END Values
REMAINING FLEXIBILITY
START-END Values
INDICATORS
START-END All Clusters
MARGINAL PRICE
START-END Values
GPI
START-END Values
2 020
2 025
2 030
2 035
Results in Initial
Situation
(=without Group)
along the years
FID+
2 015
2 020
2 025
2 030
Results in Final
Situation (=with
Group)
along the years
2 035
Results
along the
countries
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Files structure (modelling results files)
Drop down list to select the results you want to look at
> DISRUPTED RATE
> DISRUPTED QUANTITY
> REMAINING FLEXIBILITY
> INDICATORS
> MONETIZATION
> MARGINAL PRICE
> GPI
Global
Disruption
Cluster
Temporal Period
Global
Cluster
Indicator
GREEN
NONE
FID
DC
GREEN
FID
SSPDi - LNG
Global
Disruption
Gas Price Scenario
GREY
NONE
RUm expensive
Global
Temporal Period
Cluster
Gas Price Scenario
GREY
AW
FID
NO cheap
Global context
Disruption scen
Infra. scen
Temporal period
Indicators
Price Conf.
Temporal period
Price Conf.
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Modelling results - 1
Disruption and Remaining Flexibility
> No supply price configurations for these indicators
> Calculated at country (or BZ) level
> To be looked at under high demand situations: DC (=Design Case) and 2W (=2 weeks
cold spell)
> Disruption Rate: measures the share of country’s demand which cannot be supplied
 A 0% disruption rate means the country is not facing disruption
 A 10% disruption on peak day means that the country’s infrastructures only allow to supply 90%
of its peak demand
> Remaining Flexibility: measures the additional demand the country could cope with,
expressed as share of the country’s actual demand
 A 20% remaining flexibility means the country could cope with a 20% increase of its demand
> Above indicators are also calculated under 8 route disruption scenarios (Ukraine,
Belarus, …)
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Modelling results - 2
Monetized results
> Monetized results are calculated under the 13 price configurations
> EU Bill
> Marginal Price: by country (even by balancing zone)
 To be looked at for AW (=Average winter) and AS (=Average summer)
> GPI (Gas Price Index): proxy for the country gas Bills, calculated by country
 To be looked at for AW (=Average winter) and AS (=Average summer)
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Modelling results - 3
Indicators
> Indicators are calculated for each of the 6 supply sources.
> They are calculated at country level on a yearly basis
> Supply source dependence measures the share of country’s demand that cannot be
supplied if EU faces a total absence of this source. It is calculated both under
uncooperative (USSD) and cooperative (CSSD) behaviour between countries
 A country’s uncooperative dependence of 40% to LNG means that this country needs at least
40% of LNG to supply its demand, if not supported by other countries
> Supply price dependence (SSPDe) measures the dependence of country gas bill on that
source
 A country’s price dependence of 40% to Norwegian gas means that an increase of 10% of
Norwegian price would induce a 4% increase of the country’s gas bill
> Supply price diversification (SSPDi) measures the ability of each country to take
advantage on a cheap source in its gas bill
 A country’s price diversification of 30% to Algerian gas means that a decrease of 10% of Algerian
price would be reflected in a 3% decrease of the country’s gas bill
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Capacity-based results – N-1
> N-1 for ESW-CBA: calculation based on capacities and peak demand (non modelled)
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Capacity-based results – N-1
> N-1_ESW-CBA Result file: impact of Group of projects provided
 By country
 In 2 worksheets
o N-1_green for GREEN global context (using countries’ GREEN peak demand)
o N-1_grey for GREY global context (using countries’ GREY peak demand)
 In these worksheets for the 2 Infrastructure scenarios
o Low Infrastructure scenario: lines 4 to 33
o High Infrastructure scenario: lines 36 to 65
 Detail by country to be found in the Countries Worksheets
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Capacity-based results - IRD
> Import Route Diversification (IRD): HHI index which measures the diversification of
paths that gas can flow through to reach a zone. Together with the Supply Source
Price Diversification, it provides a proxy to the assessment of counterparty
diversification.
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Capacity-based results - IRD
> IMPORT ROUTE DIV Result File: impact of Group of projects provided
 in columns BG to BQ, under Infra Scenarios HUGH (BH to BL) and LOW (BM to BQ)
 by country (green lines)
Interpretation of figures
(50)= -50 = decrease
40 = +40 = increase
- = no impact
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Thank You for Your Attention
ENTSOG -- European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas
Avenue de Cortenbergh 100, B-1000 Brussels
EML: [email protected]; [email protected]
WWW: www.entsog.eu